6/9 Pics & Forecast Mumblings
Today might present a decent little chase closer to home. I'm eyeing a couple of subtle outflow boundaries from around Tulia to Pampa. Instabilities are forecast to reach 2000+ in the TX PH today, particularly around those boundaries, with abit of storm-relative helicity values. Current satellite trends show that we will have strong insolation today to cook all of the ingredients up for a couple of good storms.
Tomorrow....ummmm....nothing there. LOL!
Tuesday has a good possibility for some supercells as the trough out west opens up and moves towards the TX PH and KS. How fast it does so is the wild card for where the best storms will be. The NAM is on crack with it's nil CAPE forecast...we should see at least 1500. Stay tuned for this possible event.
Beyond that, I'm not going to speculate at this point. The models are all over the place with solutions. I'm just not too lazy this morning to roll the bones and dissect the noise. It's easier to let things sort themselves out until we get some semblence of agreement among the models.
Yesterday's chase was "ok" and not quite what I hoped for. The moisture and storms just didn't quite get in sync until near dark and by that time, they quickly formed a squall. At one point near Ulysses, KS, the severe storm there took on an interesting characteristic and just almost caused me to call in a possible developing tornado. You'll see that in the pics below.
In the gripe and moan department, I had terrible data problems yesterday. The data feed for GR3 decided to take a dump. The radar images were updating every 4-5 minutes, but were consistently 30-50 minutes old. I even rebooted the computer to see if that would help...I was that desperate. When I got home, I tried GR3 on the desktop and had the same problem. AS Rick pointed out in the comments yesterday, it is apparently a NWS data feed problem. Fortunately, my data connection was pretty solid most of the time so I got COD and NWS radar images off the internet.
WxWorx was a pain in the butt too. I'd look down to see a stale image and then a red button on "XmLink". It would do this off and on the entire evening. When I got home, I discovered that one of my antenna cables had come loose and was sitting right on top of the XM antenna puck. LOL!!On top of that, the biting flies in Kansas were pretty vicious and ravenous little buggers. Even with a good dose of insect repellent, they would keep finding a place I didn't spray and "notify" me about it. Next time, I'm bringing a flame thrower. ;-)
OK....some pics!
Near Kendall, KS. The wheat fields up there were amazing...a sea of gold.
Sotmr just south of Ulysses..watch for the dust plume underneath it. Any visual evidence of rotation in the storm there? ;-)
Hmmmm...the plot thickens. I was a ways off, but I could not discern any sort of rotation in the dust column, but it was getting lifted straight up.
This is about the point where I almost made a call to NWS DDC and report a "possible" developing tornado. I wanted to watch it abit more before I did though. Besides, other spotters were closer to it.
My last good picture of the storm.
Tomorrow....ummmm....nothing there. LOL!
Tuesday has a good possibility for some supercells as the trough out west opens up and moves towards the TX PH and KS. How fast it does so is the wild card for where the best storms will be. The NAM is on crack with it's nil CAPE forecast...we should see at least 1500. Stay tuned for this possible event.
Beyond that, I'm not going to speculate at this point. The models are all over the place with solutions. I'm just not too lazy this morning to roll the bones and dissect the noise. It's easier to let things sort themselves out until we get some semblence of agreement among the models.
Yesterday's chase was "ok" and not quite what I hoped for. The moisture and storms just didn't quite get in sync until near dark and by that time, they quickly formed a squall. At one point near Ulysses, KS, the severe storm there took on an interesting characteristic and just almost caused me to call in a possible developing tornado. You'll see that in the pics below.
In the gripe and moan department, I had terrible data problems yesterday. The data feed for GR3 decided to take a dump. The radar images were updating every 4-5 minutes, but were consistently 30-50 minutes old. I even rebooted the computer to see if that would help...I was that desperate. When I got home, I tried GR3 on the desktop and had the same problem. AS Rick pointed out in the comments yesterday, it is apparently a NWS data feed problem. Fortunately, my data connection was pretty solid most of the time so I got COD and NWS radar images off the internet.
WxWorx was a pain in the butt too. I'd look down to see a stale image and then a red button on "XmLink". It would do this off and on the entire evening. When I got home, I discovered that one of my antenna cables had come loose and was sitting right on top of the XM antenna puck. LOL!!
OK....some pics!
Near Kendall, KS. The wheat fields up there were amazing...a sea of gold.
Sotmr just south of Ulysses..watch for the dust plume underneath it. Any visual evidence of rotation in the storm there? ;-)
Hmmmm...the plot thickens. I was a ways off, but I could not discern any sort of rotation in the dust column, but it was getting lifted straight up.
This is about the point where I almost made a call to NWS DDC and report a "possible" developing tornado. I wanted to watch it abit more before I did though. Besides, other spotters were closer to it.
My last good picture of the storm.
posted by Steve Miller TX at 6/10/2007 10:26:00 AM
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