Chase Report - April 20 - TX PH

What a great chase today! Remember that minor impulse I mentioned earlier that SPC pointed out? The RUC was off on location, but had the right idea of breaking something out. I really think I'm gonna love living out here. :-) I think we can put away the 2x4! LOL!!

I grabbed a storm by the tail as it started developing WSW of Kress and I didn't let go until Canyon. Other teaser cells were really small LP storms with very little, ragged bases and pretty robust updrafts. I knew it was just a matter of time before a little better moisture worked in and a cell latched onto the other storms' outflow boundary. Soon, a broader, more solid base developed and the show soon began. It never looked ominous on radar, but that's what I love about LPs! And what a great one this was!!

Also, on a VERY curious note, I let the base of a newer cell that developed pass overhead near Canyon. It was prety cool looking and striated...but too close for a pic. However, I noticed this plane flying towards the center of the updraft. I thought I was going to witness a crash. It looked as if he was making a turn to avoid it...and then turned back into it!!! He kept flying from one end of the updraft to the other crossing it in the center! Then, right above me, I saw a bunch of sparks shoot out from behind the plane. It dawned on me that this was some sort of seeding project. He kept this up for a good while....about 45 minutes at least. So, ya'll keep an eye out for this. I really want to know what his purpose was up there. Don't be goin' 'round messin with my supercells. ;-)

I'll ramble in the morning about the BIG event tomorrow. Lubbock to me is a pretty obvious target...but up to Amarillo is also in the hot seat. It's the "triangle" As Jay put it. :-) I seriously hope that the tornadoes stay out in the open fields. Okay...okay...some pics from today!!!

Dig that groovy upside down convection or "big gorilla knuckle" on the left.


Come on, baby! Spin!


Oh....my....


Trying to barber pole and stack some dishes.


Can you say "stormwood"?

Ok, this is just nuts!! Stormgasm!!


There's some puddin' for ya! (with respect to the Outlaw Chasers!)


I cracked up at this sign north of Tulia! LOL!!! Yes, the thingies on top were rotating!!


Ok, this is one of the oddest and coolest updrafts I've seen. Check out the little needle funnel on the right!!


Last picturesque shot before it quickly fades away.


The new updraft SW of Canyon...the one that crazy cloud-seeding pilot played with.

Today 4/12 & Armageddon Tomorrow

1400z UPDATE: RUC and new 12z NAM are reflecting my pessimism from this morning. It looks like I'd have to go as far south as Lubbock and probably down to I-20 to really get into the moisture and instability. It looks like more elevated showers in my neck of the woods. Unless something drastically changes for the better, and I don't see that it will, I'm sitting it out here and preparing for tomorrow. Latest NAM offers some pretty interesting solutions with the surface low becoming vetically stacked with the upper low. It is trying hard to setup a cold core event from the SE TX PH along the Red River to Wichita Falls. Alot of attention is also being deflected away from what looks to be a significant winter storm for E CO and KS. I'll update later this afternoon.

I'll be updating through the day and offer my thoughts as the day progresses. As I begin to take the first sip of coffee this morning, I'm looking at surface obs and....well....I need some more coffee. ;-) 50Td is confined to the TX coast with some lower 60's in the southern tip of Brownsville. However, the juicy lower 70's are hovering just offshore.

I'm waiting for the 12z sounding data to get a better idea of the depth of moisture in our source region. However, I'm not optimistic. The models don't really crank up the LLJ out over the source region today....only over Texas. That certainly isn't in our favor. Still, Td near 50 should make it to Lubbock by 00Z with mid and upper 40's in the TX PH. Better moisture return should happen tonight after my bedtime. The 21z RUC forecast correlates nicely with my pessimism. :-)

The other problem is cloud cover over the TX PH expected today. Right now, satellite doesn't look too bad at all, but models are forecasting rapid development of a cirrus shield this afternoon. I'm not convinced of this and even then, should keep the W TX plains around LBB mostly in an area of strong insolation.

In any event, storms should pop on the dryline and move NE/ENE and continually encounter a little better moisture (and I stress "little") and an increasing LLJ. As they interact with the warm front, they will encounter some pretty outrageous helicities with strong veering from 850-500mb. So, even with higher based storms, they should be able to take advantage of that strong veering and start spinning. :-) So at the very least, some very photogenic and beautiful LPs should result. That's good enough for me to burn a little gas. I sure hope that Barney Fife in the SE TX PH is ready to encounter more chasers. Don't be surprised if the Texas National Guard is fully deployed and waiting. LOL!! Ya'll be nice now. ;-)

More on today with 12z data coming in.

FRIDAY: Small dogs should take cover now and stay away from wierdos! LOL!!! That's a reference to the old Mr. Roboto when he made his debut on NWR a few years ago. ;-) I won't waste bandwidth regurgitating the excellent SPC discussions, but I do expect to see a mix of everything "weather" tomorrow...including some wrap-around snows in the N TX PH and NW OK.

The big show appears to be over Central and North Texas where tornadic supercells will erupt ahead of the dryline and particularly along the warm front which may in fact ease across the Red River into OK. I don't think it will make any further progress than that as heavy rains persist across OK reinforcing the cold sector. As a result, the surface low will track along the warm front which of course puts the Red River Valley in a high risk zone for tornadoes.

Given that the SRH values are off the chart and all other parameters being favorable, violent and long-track tornadoes are a pretty darned good bet. Storm motions will be on the fast side, so chasing will be challenging and of course, increses the danger even further for residents as reaction time to warnings will be lessened. I sure hope everybody is taking this seriously in that region.

Further NW, we will be recovering from the MCS overnight and I would expect an outflow boundary stretching along or south of I-20. Where the dryline smacks this would be another area to focus on. Impossible to target that yet as alot depends on the forecast MCS. Regardless, I'm thinking it is going to be tough for anything to fire in NW TX along the dryline until late afternoon when it encroaches into the Wichita Falls/Eastland vicinity.

However, I'm wondering if the models won't slow this thing up even more than they did last night. As has been the trend this year and as often is the case, these developing storm systems almost always end up trending slower. So, the 12z models are going to be pretty revealing in that respect. Part of that is wishcasting as it makes it easier for me to chase. :-)

I hope to be chasing tomorrow. It depends on how much code I get knocked out today and how early I make it in..depends on this evening's activity. I'm pretty certain I'll blow off storms too far away this evening as a result. But, as an SDS patient, anything is possible. ;-)

More today...hope to hear back with others' thoughts. Keep that 2x4 handy. I may need it. LOL!!