Monday, November 24, 2008

JPG Magazine Contest & Turkey Day

I've been entering some of my photography into a few photo contests. I want to measure my work against the many excellent photographers out there. Plus, whatever exposure and publicity I can obtain from it makes it worth the effort. Heck, if I could win one, that would absolutely rock and roll my world. :-) I need your help by voting on one contest I've entered at JPG Magazine. Please cast your vote at the link below. And of course, you are voting for "change" and I will rescue the world. ;-)

http://www.jpgmag.com/photos/1251474

You will have to do a brief sign-up, but I'm worth it...I think. ;-) Thank you!

The trick is being careful of which contests you enter. Just about every one wants rights to use your photo in promoting the contest and their website...understandably. However, the more unscrupulous ones have it setup to where you basically surrender your photo to them for the rest of your life for them to do with as they please...including selling that photo to publishers of which you won't see one single dime...ever...no way...no how. Ever wonder how those online stock photo agencies acquire so many photos and images? Now you know. There are hundreds ofthousands if not millions of people ripped off by this scam. But, ther rules, terms and conditions are right there for everybody to read through, but with the legalese and fine print, most peoople don't. So, READ THE FINE PRINT before entering ANY photography contest.

Okay, on to weather. The models aren't making things any easier as of 12z today regarding the upper air evolution and resultant precip and temperature forecasts. Right now, it looks like the Panhandle will have a shot at a little wintery precip late Thursday and Friday. Even Lubbock might get into the action depending on how everything works out. Another shot is possible late into the weekend as well. Beyond that, it isn't real clear, but I'm thinking another big surge of even colder air will arrive next week. Stay tuned.

I'll be out for about a week, so I wish everybody out there a Happy Thanksgiving. My it be filled with plenty of food, naps and football. :-)

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Weather Channel Axe & Greensburg Study

The Weather Channel, recently purchased by NBC, underwent some blood letting recently. The biggest cut was the entire staff of "Forecast Earth" which was the environmental awareness and education efforts of The Weather Channel. Although there was some sublte pom-pom shaking for Al Gore's global warming hysteria, it wasn't a bad part of TWC. Perhaps the view ratings weren't up to snuff to justify a dedicated staff. I dunno. I am not sad to hear that Dr. Heidi Cullen is part of that group to be let go. She's the one that supported the idea of yanking the AMS seal from any meteorolgist that did not conform to the gobal warming hysteria crowd. Read about it yourself. I'm sure Al Gore will hire her...if she wasn't already on the payroll.

What IS shocking to me is they gave Dave Schwartz the axe. WHAT?!?! Again, I'm certainly not privy as to the reasons for letting him go, but it certainly seems like a stupid decision. Not that upper management in US corporations nowadays are known for making good decisions, mind you. ;-) I thought he was one of the more colorful personalities they had and was very passionate about all aspects of his weather presentations. He stood out from the crowd and I can't help but think he was part of TWC's success. I've seen his face on TWC for many many years. I could easily point out a few others that should be let go before him. I certainly hope he lands someplace that could use and appreciate his talents and persona.



Now for some highly recommended reading during the off-season. Leslie R. Lemon and Mike Umscheid recently released a scientific paper called "The Greensburg, Kansas Tornadic Storm: A Storm Of Extremes". They have written a most detailed and comprehensive study packed full of fascinating data including the thermodynamics, surface and upper air setup, 3-D radar analysis, and accounts from witnesses who rode out and survived the killer storm. It also covers two other large tornadoes that night as well, the Trousdale and Hopewell twisters.

One of the things that stand out to me are the modified Dodge City soundings at 02Z revealing 5100j/kg CAPE, 70 knots of 0-6km shear, and 0-1km storm-relative helicities up 400!! An important aspect of the CAPE is that this is a modified sounding...NOT a model forecast like the RUC which tends to overdue CAPE by a significant amount. One other interesting tidbit is Mike and Leslie's analysis of a small jet streak as evident by satellite analysis of a thin cirrus band intersecting the Greensburg cell. The rest of the stuff, including some awesome radar analysis, I'll leave for you to discover. :-)

So, the amount of energy was incredible for this storm to work with. For reference, 1500-2000 CAPE is pretty unstable, and 3000 is potent. The May 3, 1999 analsysis by Roger Edwards and Rich Thompson modified the 00Z OUN sounding for the area to the SW of OKC which yielded 5000j/kg. The Jarrell, Texas event had chase teams from Texas A&M launching near-storm soundings which revealed CAPE of 7100!! Of all three cases above, it is important to note the 0-3km CAPE values were 175j/kg to perhaps 300 in the case of Jarrell. That is one of several important parameters I look for in forecasting.

Back to the Greensburg study, I must also point out the contributions made by the stormchasers who were on that storm and provided invaluable images, video and accounts as part of this study. You know who you are. :-) That aspect of stormchasing is often ignored or overlooked in favor of blacking some eyes. Or even in the case of one rookie chaser this year expertly proclaiming in his quite delusional mind that the public throughout tornado alley despises, loathes and hates chasers. LOL!! Yes, Virginia, stormchasers actually do ALOT of good deeds. :-)

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Winter Cometh

Today, we are finally getting a serious blast of winter chill into the Panhandles in stark contrast to the beautiful weather we've enjoyed the past couple of months. Winds are howing out of the north here in the mid afternoon with temperatures around 42F. Still, it's not as brutal as what folks have been dealing with to the east of the Mississippi.

The upper air pattern responsible for this is a large ridge over the central US with a deep trough over the eastern states. This has opened up the doors of the arctic freezer and plunging unseasonably cold air as far south as Florida. However, there are signs that things are a changin'.

Although I'm looking at about 10 days out and beyond, there has been decent consistancy among the models. Plus, with the stubborn blocking pattern keeping the above-mentioned pattern locked in, it will break down eventually. What is being advertised makes meteorological sense. Still, we are talking about models 10 days and beyond, so nothing to really call a bet for now.

The advertised change breaks down the ridge with several strong pieces of energy coming in off the Pacific. Eventually, this will result in a very large, deep trough over the western half of the CONUS. During the transition, shortwaves will descend across the central US opening up the freezer door into the central and southern plains states. With the general deep troughiness over the western half of the US, this will setup favorable overrunning conditions resulting in several episodes of precipitation. It's a classic setup for wintery precipitation in the Texas Panhandle.

When would this occur? It looks like the weekend after Thanksgiving and beyond. But, as I keep harping about, this is on the outside edge of any reliable skill in the the model forecasts. There is enough of a hint there to really keep an eye on it though. At least it is more fun to watch than the stock markets sliding into the abyss of a depression.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Tanking Ecomony


Today, the DOW dropped below 8000. The more I read, the more I'm dismayed about any major recovery anytime soon. One wonders if and when we will see the worst of it as I still think that lies ahead. I'm pretty dismayed about it with trying to launch a new business. In fact, I have decided to put any aggressive plans on hold indefinitely. It just does not make sense to forge ahead and spend more money when companies everywhere are laying off and cutting back expenditures every way they can to survive.

The biggie is going to be the auto industry. It is starting to look like even the democrats are backing away from an auto industry bail out. This will certainly lead to bankruptcy proceedings and massive layoffs. It will have a huge impact without a doubt. It will take a long time to recover from something that hasn't even happened yet. The unfortunate truth is that the auto industry has this upon themselves...in large part to inept corporate management...or mismanagement being the more accurate word. The fact of them flying to Washington on private luxury jets to ask for taxpayer handouts for their ineptness is simple, but glaring example of why they should not be running corporations who are teetering on bankruptcy. In fact, it should be criminal.

But, back to my own selfish self-preservation. I am facing some tough decisions in the short term as to what I will do. The prudent thing is to find shelter someplace out of the storm until the worst of it passes. I will soon be competing with millions of people out of a job in a tanking economy. I am considering two courses of action at this time...one of which I will have to take soon.

The first one is going back to IT with a stable company in a growing sector that I believe will offer a good chance of weathering the big storm ahead. I applied earlier this week and actually looking forward to hearing back from them. It sounds like something I might want to pursue as a long-term career option and give up on my business plans for awhile, if not entirely.

The second option is going back to school. I've been working hard on that this week to obtain financial aid so I can go full-time. It makes sense for several reasons. First, I've always wanted to get a full degree. Second, although I won't get rich, I'll at least have some support to ride out the storm....AND, pursuing a degree in something I know I would love. So, when the storm clears, I will be in great position to emerge and blaze a trail. It would help tremendously in my business efforts. What is it you say? Journalism/Mass Communications with some business courses on the side. Yeah, I'm nuts. :-) But soon to be age 44, it's the right time to try and do this. With my previous college credit, a good chunk of the mundane coursework is out of the way.

So, as the world turns...so do my careeer ambitions. LOL!! I'm sure Obama will save us though...at least that is what he promised. We can trust him, right? The mainstream media says so. However, putting together a staff that resembles Bill Clinon's third term is disturbing to me. So much for "change", eh? Ok..ok...I'll stop there. I've got more important things to attend to right now.

Ya'll take care.

Monday, November 17, 2008

American Red Cross & NASCAR?

MAJOR CORRECTION: Thanks to Beau Dodson for doing a little research that I failed to do. I'm a victim of my own knee-jerk reaction instead of doing a little googling. Hey, the mainstream media does it, so I can too. LOL!! Except in my case, I admit that I made a mistake and am correcting the misinformation. Here is the link provided by Beau from the American Red Cross website itself.

http://www.redcross.org/pressrelease/0,1077,0_489_7944,00.html

Therefore, I will retract my earlier blog post and learn from my mistake. :-)


Sunday, November 16, 2008

Ben Franklin: Weather Weenie Extraordinaire

A recent thread on Stormtrack got me thinking about historic weather weenies which shared the same passion many of us have today. Instantly, Benjamin Franklin came to mind. Everybody knows about his experiments with lightning to prove his theories which led to the development of lightning rods. But, were you aware of his fascination with "spouts"?

Check out this diagram of a waterspout he made:

(click on image for larger version)

He even wrote a nice, long paper called "Water-spouts and Whirlwinds" in which he recounted chasing a dust devil on horseback and striking his whip repeatedly through it. Read it for yourself.

In my research, I came across a winter waterspout over Lake Ontario on January 26, 1994.

The thermodynamics are the same with colder air over the relatively warmer waters and what appears to be some sort of boundary...likely induced by baroclinicity where the sun appears to be shining...similar to steam devils.

Anyway, just wanted to share what I thought were some interesting tidbits.


Friday, November 14, 2008

Caprock Photography

I'd like to announce the launch of my new photography site: Caprock Photography. I'll be adding some other photos to it in time, but I've got alot of my better stuff loaded. Some of theones on there I may go back and tackle some of the noisiness in them and do some better cropping. But, it's enough to hopefully showcase my work to prospective clients. :-)

It's hosted by SmugMug which offers alot of power and flexibility yet very affordable. You can even load your videos. Their editing tool pretty much lets you build an entire customized site once you learn some of their proprietary code concerning html and css tag names and structure. Firefox has a GREAT plug-in to help identify, edit and test such code called "Web Developer", oddly enough. :-) I've already seen some examples of nice SmugMug sites and there seems to be some good community support. So, when I have time, I'll be improving the overall look and feel as well as the navigation.

So, back to trying to get an income stream flowing. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't at all stressed out with the current state of the economy and the gloomy forecast. If you or somebody you know could use my services as a photographer, photojournalist, or videographer, please let me know. :-)

On a humorous note, the Veterans Day image below contains the year 2007. Kudos to Jay McCoy for catching that. I certainly missed it. Still, it was a nice image to honor all of the veterans.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Veterans Day


OUCH!



Well, yesterday was a prime example of fall weather systems where if anything can go wrong with a setup, it most likely will. Part of my problem was doing a lazy analysis and forecast thus missing the fact 850mb winds would veer across the very strong convergence boundary in SW OK to west of Wichita Falls. This veered profile was just enough to spread some extremely dry air over what otherwise would have been an excellent surface setup. This was evident by high-based little showers that produced only high-based virga.

I really believed that the 850mb winds would remain more backed as the surface low intensified in far SE CO. But, I don't think the configuration of the mid-upper level system was really conducive for that...hindsight being 20/20 of course. Regardless, I truly believed there was an opportunity in my target area of any storm that could form and get organized had a good chance to produce a tornado.

However, in the "stormchasing community", things are erupting as SDS kicks into high gear. From stormchaser police writing virtual citations for rolling through a stop sign in the middle of nowhere to getting all bent out of shape over a little innocent humor, it's getting rough out there. Although I've ranted about this before, I have yet to see another "hobby" as cuthroat and backstabbing as this one is. Lanny Dean is certainly feeling the love even more than me. Time to freshen up on my chaser gang signs. Sigh....

Alrighty...moving right along....

Kudos go to Mike Umscheid who scored a nice tornado in far SW KS with a classic cold core setup. I almost made the trip up there, but seeing mid-40 temperatures storms would move into just didn't excite me very much. A lesson learned indeed. Jon Davies has a good analysis on the event too. One of these years, I'm going to commit to chasing a cold core setup.

Looking at the latest medium range models, it appears that the first real shot of winter is going to slam the southern plains in about 8-10 days. That is still a ways out, but worthy of mentioning because of the potential impacts. If this were to verify according to the GFS, then a shot of some pretty cold air plunges into the area. How cold? Highs stuggling to get to 32F. There is also some forecast precipitation as well which could be on the heavy side. But, like I said, still a ways out with a large potential error spread. I'll be watching it closely. And, wouldn't you know, as I am writing, I hear the honking of some Canadian Geese outside as they are settling into Amarillo for the winter. Time to hunker down for the winter. No more silly talk of chasing until March. :-)

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Getting Old Sucks

All of my life, I've enjoyed good vision. But in the last few years, I've noticed a slow deterioration of my near-sight. Arms-length and further is still excellent. Over time, I started reading stuff a micrometer further away. It was subtle and stealthy, as most aging effects are. But, the past few weeks of spending ALOT of time in front of the computer AND reading books and other material, it started becoming much more apparent. The strain really caused it to get worse. Buying groceries last week, it was quite a chore to get a clear focus when reading the small label print of product ingredients. I can't afford to screw up my eyes (who can?) and it was hindering my work. Enough was enough.

So, I finally broke down and bought some reading glasses today. I spent alot of time picking out the right strength and found some books and magazines, and even a couple of canned goods to test it thoroughly. What a HUGE difference!! :-) I've done a little reading today and some computer work. My eyes feel alot more relaxed and everything is so much sharper. I should have done it sooner, but my defiance of the inevitable made that impossible. ;-)

I suppose a trip to the optometrist will be in the cards soon, dammit. Oh well, I still have along time before ending up with a cane I guess. ;-) Here are some pics with the new four-eyes look. LOL!! (Am I starting to LOOK like an old person? Yikes! wait...don't answer that...)



Copyrights & LLCs & Obama-itis

I sat out today's severe weather events because of business matters. But, I wish I could have been on the cell that exploded east of Wichita Falls and moved up towards Ardmore. It was a beauty on radar as were a couple of other big isolated cells. But, with 40-50mph storm motions, I'm kinda glad in a way I wasn't either. Is it May yet? ;-)

I just finished compiling 8,361 photos to put on a disc to send to the copyright office. Whew! I did this by going through all of my raw files and converting those I want to protect to thumbnail jpegs. That takes some time, let me tell ya. But, it's done. Everything is going out in the mail tomorrow with the form and the fee. Oh, and a tip. According to what I learned, you can submit thumbnails as small as 100px high. But, for my reference and to make them more legible, I did 200px high and 300px wide.

On the business front, the LLC formation is in it's final stage. After I discovered single-member LLCs are treated just like sole proprietorships (I file a Schedule C and the LLC doesn't file anything, basically), it muddled things abit concerning how to declare my personal assets used in the business. I would have had to do this anyway without forming an LLC. A pro will help me iron that out. With any luck, I'll send all of the documents to the state sometime next week.

And, as some of ya'll have asked, I have some comments about the Obama election. Certainly nobody thought I'd let such a major historic event pass without mentioning it, right? LOL!!

It is an incredible feat considering that a little over four decades ago, blacks in this country were subject to hostile bigotry and racism. The images of fire hoses and dogs unleashed on protesters is a sinister scar on our country's past. Forced to the backseats of buses, to drink from separate water fountains, sit in allocated sections of restaurants, and terrorized in their homes and communities by hooded thugs, is something very poisonous to the soul of this country and the ideals it was founded on.

And yet today, an African-American will hold the highest office in the land and become leader of the free world. For hundreds of years into the future, history books will note this point in time as one of the last major hurdles in becoming a truly mature, free democracy. I don't think some people fully grasp or appreciate the magnitude of what has happened. I feel lucky to have witnessed it. I congratulate Obama and his supporters on such an accomplishment.

However, the accolades stop there. It is a fact that he closely associated with Bill Ayers of the infamous "Weather Underground", a domestic terrorist group which blew up buildings. It is well documented, so anybody who shrieks about a FoxNews conspiracy should remove the tinfoil hats.

What is interesting to me is that the mainstream media barely mentioned it or made an issue out of it. You can be certain that had it been the red state candidate, we'd have heard about it everyday leading up to the election. They'd bring Dan Rather out of retirement and unleash him like a pitbull as he would certainly invent some more documents to "embellish" the story. LOL!! It was nice to see some democrats experience the media bias during their primaries when Clinton got the brunt of it. It's funny how something like that isn't obvious until it slaps you in the face.

It's disturbing to me that when this was revealed, Obama shrugged it off as just some guy that lived in his neighborhood. In my opinion, he should have reacted very strongly to it and condemn Ayers and everything his group stood for. Obama reacted more strongly against his former pastor Wright (which for you FoxNews conspiracists out there, was first broadcast by ABC news).

The comment about redistribution of wealth made me cringe as the shockwave of "socialism" assaulted my senses. He in fact later did not apologize for it and even expanded on it. What cracks me up are the nuts that claim that statement is not socialist. It indeed IS and is the basis for all different forms of socialism. Please don't take us back to the Clinton era of "define what 'is' is". Changing the definition ain't gonna fly. Socialist policies will only hurt our economy and is something we should be striving to move AWAY from...not gravitate towards. With the stock market nosediving today, the stock market cast its ballot as a vote of no confidence.

But, the American people have spoken. Everybody is pissed and demands change...serious, drastic change. I'm one of them which is why I've supported the serious inclusion of third party candidates and voted Libertarian since 2000. I believe we need something even more drastic than Obama. ;-) If Obama can stay more centrist and away from waving the red flag of socialism, then I do actually have some hope for this country. After all, I've been clamoring for such a major Washington shake-up for along time. I thought McCain could do it as well though. He has the track record to prove it.

The problem is a Pelosi/Reid led congress who has managed to obtain the lowest-ever approval ratings in history. They have proven to be bitter and divisive partisan hacks and exhibit disdain for the majority of the American people's will in order to push their far-left agendas (the offshore drilling issue a few months ago comes immediately to mind). I read today that Reid is about to punish Lieberman who is an Independent now. So much for following Obama's lead, eh? Obama MUST stand up to the extremist nutcases in his own party and do what is right for ALL Americans and our country at large.

One of the things I hope he will do as promised is to go through the federal budget, line by line, and eliminate the waste. He said he wants to eliminate programs that don't work and to make the other ones work better and more efficiently. He needs to make some seriously deep cuts...and lots of them in my opinion. I'd like to see him put the smackdown on earmarks and pork-laden bills that come across his desk. Make it a "zero-tolerance" veto policy. I'd actually pick up the Obama flag then and cheer him on. With trillions in deficits, we HAVE to in order to survive. It's as simple as that. Since congress has proven that it isn't able to, somebody needs to stand up and make it happen. "You're my only hope, Obi-wan" LOL!!! I crack myself up sometimes. ;-)

With his other Jedi powers, I'd like to see him spearhead the promised healthcare reforms...WITHOUT creating socialized (there's that ugly word again) healthcare. I read through some of his campaign stuff on his website, and I agree with a good portion of it. Healthcare is a very serious crisis that needs immediate attention. Go take a look at "DividedWeFail.org"

Lastly, I hope that he will veto any attempt by the rabid foaming-at-the-mouth liberals in Congress to stamp out conservative talk radio with the horrendous "Fairness Doctrine". Of course, they'll work hard to rename it so we won't recognize their efforts. They may even try some subversive acts via new FCC regulations. The less the government controlls ANY media source for political commentary, editorial, or discussion, the better. In fact, they shouldn't even meddle with it...nor even think about it. If they do, then I'm going to be damned sure to demand they go after the liberal mainstream media and newspapers too. After all, that's "fairness", right?

And looking to the future, keep in mind that Iraq is quite stable now and already timetables are being drawn up for removing our troops. Latest news is that it might even happen sooner than previously projected. I point this out because when troop withdrawals begin next year, the demorats will claim all the credit for it as ammunition in 2010 and beyond. Watch for it. I know I will be. I fully expect the mainstream media to let them get away with it too.

Concerning the concession speeches, it was very nice to watch Bush's gracious speech. The news reports are that he is making efforts already to get Obama ready and to make the transition a smooth one. He even invited him and and his family to stop by soon to get a feel for their new home come January. McCain also crafted a very honorable concession speech as well. I thought it quite admirable. In listening to alot of hysterical liberal dribble, one would have expected the exact opposite. :-)

On a final note, I do in fact wish Obama and his pending administration all the best. I do sincerely hope that he CAN make a positive change in the direction of this country. I don't think we've ever needed it so badly since the era of the Great Depression. He has a HUGE hurdle ahead of him. It's a monumental task of herculean proportions. Nothing is going to get done overnight and he's said that several times, even in his victory speech last night. In order to try and bring this country back together, he should be very careful in all of his appointments. I would hope that McCain would find a prominent position somewhere in Obama's administration. That would be a HUGE step in the right direction.

But, speaking as one of the Americans he is working for now, I will hold him accountable for making some significant measured progress by the end of 2009. There are various ways to do that, but significant POSITIVE progress, nonetheless. I am giving him an honest chance to make good on his promises for which I'll be rooting him on.

That's it for one of the longest blog posts I've ever written. LOL!! I'm sure somebody will be offended and write a nasty anonymous comment. Go write your own blog and spew your own opinions. I don't have the time to correct the error of your ways. :-)

Sunday, November 02, 2008

That Little Ol' Band From Texas

Jay McCoy and I rocked out to ZZ Top in Amarillo last night. These guys still have it!! This was the last night of their tour..to end it where they call home (although they live in LA last I heard..lol). Nevertheless, this state is where they got their start. That's why they've always been known as "that little ol' band from Texas". In fact, I grew up on ZZ Top's music and love it today as much as I did as a teenager...just a few years ago. ;-)

So, it was quite a treat to FINALLY get to see them live for the first time in my life. The venue was the Amarillo Civic Center where we had floor seats....on top of the iced hocky rink! LOL! They of course had placed some thick "jigsaw" flooring on it, but it made for a chilly start. I've never watched a concert before sitting on top of a giant ice cube. That's another thing on my list of todo's in life checked off. :-)

The opening act was a southern rock band and they were okay, but the sound sucked. It was too loud for such a venue. Aa a result, everything sounded garbled and blended together due to excessive phase cancellation and just plain too loud. It was extremely difficult to make out even which chord they were playing, much less differentiate instruments...even the drums! This concerned me with ZZ coming up. But, huge kudos to their sound crew as ZZ Top hit the stage, the sound was excellent for such a challenging environment. It rocked! Whew!

They played their hits along with a couple of vintage songs that I bet few in the audience had heard of before. They were great tunes though. They even payed tribute to Jimi Hendrix with their version of "Hey Joe" which was nicely done. They ended the concert with an encore performance of "LaGrange" and "Tush".

At one point during the set, they stopped between songs and grabbed an album cover from the audience. All three sigend it while making a big deal over it and gave it back to the woman who was pretty emotional about it. The audeince loved it. What a helluva gesture for the fans.

Overall, a great concert! Here are a few pics from my camera phone:



















Dig that awesome drum set! Jay and I contemplated a way to "borrow" it for awhile. ;-)