Farewell, 2008.

Models are back and in full force with effectively shutting down the chase season for the southern plains including the Texas Panhandle. Mid level flow is forecast to shift into it's anemic summer pattern as the upper ridge broadens and strengthens. That doesn't mean we won't get a severe storm here or there, but certainly not the type for a worthy chase. The only thing I'll be watching for are some lightning photo opportunities close to home.

The conclusion of a chase season is always a strange feeling. On one hand, I feel abit pensive and melancholy at having to say farewell to the excitement as you see a billowing updraft knuckling over as it explodes violently into the troposphere. The sensation one experiences when the base of the storm becomes visible as daylight is contorted with the large, looming anvil overhead. The elation of anticipating the next radar update to see your storm taking on a hook shape while you observe the precip shaft mirroring it as it wraps around the mesocyclone. The lightning, screaming inflow, all of the different hues a storms' structure creates, the beauty of that structure, and the general feeling that you are dancing with a living, breathing creature like some god in a famed Greek fable.

On the other hand, I'm ready for a break from spending a small fortune on fuel costs, exhaustion from long trips having to work the next day, and neglecting some things I really need to focus on. A part of me is looking forward to calling it quits and resuming a "normal" life. I've got to get my vehicle into the bodyshop and take care of the hail damage, especially the big craters ontop where the paint is flaking off. I'm pondering getting a new vehicle this year...or spending money to get the current one up to par with alot of maintenance items to go another year. I dunno yet.

I've also got business matters to attend to and pursue with great intensity so that I can free myself from the shackles of being submissive to somebody else's whims and flawed decisions. Anybody that knows me knows that I deeply despise such a forced disposition. LOL!! So, becoming truly self-employed is my TOP priority and goal for this year. I've never been more motivated in my life to do it. I have the perfect opportunity to do so as I've minimized my "overhead" significantly. I don't want to squander it. You'll probably see my blog updates reduced to once a week.

I'm looking forward to my other "hobbies" as well. This includes camping and fishing, poker tournaments, music, movies, concerts, road trip to the mountains, and photography excusrions. The music part I'm particularly interested in as I've got a strong desire to jam with other musicians. With my electronic drum kit, I've been able to do alot of practicing to get my chops back up to par. So, I'll be pursuing that, but only as something fun to do. I'm not interested in a working band...at least right now. :-) I'm hoping to land a studio gig or two. I also want to setup my home studio again and jump back into that. All of the above though will take a backseat to my self-employment ambitions.

I also like to reflect on the past season and what I want to do next year. The biggest thing for me is the live streaming video. This is a very exciting piece of technology! I contend it's the most important one ever in the evolution of stormchasing. The greatest impact of course is providing the NWS with virtual eyes on a storm. The say a picture is worth a 1000 words. Streaming video is worth 10,000.

I will be working on improving the live streaming stuff prior to next chase season. I have some ideas that I'm keeping under wraps for now. It all stems from my experiences this year and discovering some things lacking from a user's perspective...particularly the NWS. Other items include getting an upgraded version of Windows Media Player Encoder or even replacing it if possible. There are other technologies out there for streaming.

I also need a new firewire PCMCIA card as the one I have has developed a crack in the casing allowing it to flex. This not only kills the connection, but has caused my computer to crash once...maybe twice. lastly, I need to fix the little shorting problem on my camera's firewire port. I may even get another camera that has better image stabilization and good nightshot capabilities.

My live chase pages needs some serious work too. I've got alot of things going on with it that when works, is pretty awesome. However, there are some bugs that I need to fix, improve some code, and work on some of the server side stuff. Everything I did was rushed and spur of the moment....not good for a quality IT product as I've discovered in my nearly 12 years of being an IT pro. :-) I plan to have this as a "killer app" before next chase season.

In the short term, I'm editing my video and pictures to present to the NWS in Amarillo and Fort Worth for their Skywarn training programs. I hope to get something included in the new national training publications as well.

Lastly, my entire website at texastailchaser.com is going to get s serious revamp. It is grossly out of date....something I put together 8 years ago. I've put it off for far too long. This will be quite a project unto itself, but it has to get done. I want to wrok on the chase reports/pics stuff first.

So, LOTS to do during the next several months. Expect fewer updates, but definitely some 2008 "best of" pics and perhaps a video clip or two in the near future. I better get to it. :-)

Today....2008's Last Hurrah?

At some point every year, Ma Nature turns out the lights on the chase season. Looking at the various forecast models, today might be it for storms worthy of a chase. That doesn't mean severe storms won't pop up the rest of this summer. But, with the typical summertime anemic flow in the mid levels at this latitude, it won't be anything to get excited about except perhaps some lightning opportunities. I'll have more in my season-closing blog post soon. At least I'm ending the season with a bang. :-)

For today, the models indicate 20-30 knot NW flow atop increasing southerly flow in the lower levels. As we've seen in the TX PH the past couple of weeks, this could lead to some pretty good storms if the dewpoints don't crater into the 40's here in the panhandle...which is a big concern of mine for today. The RUC is very aggressive with this scenario. But, 60's aren't too far away up into the Lubbock/Plainview vicinity by 21z. So, with increasing low level flow, dewpoints may recover by 00Z south of I-40. By early afternoon, I'll know for sure what is going to happen with moisture and resultant instability.

The good thing about the weather pattern ofver the past couple of weeks is that the PH and W TX has made up the critical rainfall deficits for 2008. There's even an indication that Lake Meredith got a little water in it too. The entire region has expereinced several inches of accumulated rainfall...some places in the double digits. It's nice to see water standing everywhere after such a long, horrible drought in the past 12 months.

Break In The Action & Storm Reports

Yesterday provided a much needed "down day" to catch my breath after a daily whirlwind (pun intended) tou of the Texas Panhandle this past week. I didn't even get in the car yesterday to go anywhere. The funny (or sick) thing about it is that I continued to look at data hoping something might pop close to home. Somebody help me please! LOL!!

For today, I'm not expecting much if anything except for perhaps a storm off the Rotan Mesa region. I won't go more than a few miles from the house for anything....perhaps a lightning opportunity if it gets close to Amarillo. That's something I've been denied except for one instance back in April. I'd give just about anything to get an opportunity like David Drummond had a few nights ago. I'm indeed jealous. ;-)

One of the more pleasant things I've found this morning is that my tornado/landspout reports are in the SPC logs. In fact, the landspout Jay and I saw back on the 14th near Claude did in fact do some damage by destroying a carport, snapping an 8-inch diameter tree 2 feet above the ground, and blowing out the windows in the house. The photographic evidence mentioned I think is the picture I sent into them. I dunno. My initial phone report had it just north of Claude, so I wasn't too far off. :-) That is perhaps the toughest thing to do as a chaser/spotter is to know where you are at and the location of the phenomena you are reporting. I've had a habit of phoning in first and then scrambling to figure out exactly where I was at and the location of the event. I need to work on that.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080614_rpts.html

Then, the next day on the 15th, my landspout vorticies made it into the logs. If I counted each "touchdown", I could log 3-5 landspouts. Other "hybrid vortices" could account for another 5-10. This doesn't include the multitude of gustnadoes.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080615_rpts.html

So, I thought it pretty cool that if I had not been there to document those events, including the live streaming video, they would have never been recorded. I deserve a gold star! HA! lol ;-)

The only storm report missing was my gargantuan hail report 7 miles east of Muleshoe on the 17th...despite it being mentioned in some warning text. I even confirmed it later with the NWS. It's likely an unintentional oversight. I'll follow up on it though to try and get it entered. My main reason isn't for personal "fame and glory", but the fact that such reports are sometimes used by insurance companies and people filing hail damage claims. This is particularly true for farmers. I don't know if such reports, or lack of them, have any direct bearing on approving claims, but as unscrupulous as insurance companies are nowadays, I'd feel better having it entered. I'm hoping to get my archived live stream video of the event to help stake my claim.

Now, onto the crystal ball for chasing opportunities this week. The models are once again starting to setup a similar NW flow pattern with the better looking chances from Tuesday onward. I'm not anywhere close to calling it quits for 2008 yet.

So, let that NW flow conveyor belt of chaser ecstacy continue!! :-)

Chase-O-Rama Day 7!!

What a pleasant way to count down the final days of chase season 2008...whenever that might be. :-) 7 straight days now of serious stormchasing. That's 7 seasons now! LOL!! (continuing inside joke). I specifically went after some night photography opportunities on a pretty stout storm that moved from Spearman to Pampa. At one point, it had a pretty decent hook on it. It was a nice little surprise for a day that I thought would be a no-chase day.

After I got home late, another pretty strong storm rapidly organized NW of Amarillo and blasted the west side of the city where I live. It was quite a treat to watch it roll in. The lighting was pretty fierce, but most all of it cloud-to-cloud. It did though illuminate the striated storm structure for a cool effect. I didn't even point a lens at it...just sat in a chair outside and watched the show.

For today, it's too early to really get a handle on the critical mesoscale setup to pick a target. Synoptically, that's a challenge too, but looks like western row of counties into E half of New Mexico per the 1300Z SPC outlook. My gut tells me to head to Clovis today as better moisture and vertical wind profiles might be the best from there extending south and southeast. We'll see, but some of the NM storms can exhibit pretty cool structure and even pop some surprises whenever 50Td or greater rolls into the region.

Okay..PICS!!

Approaching a nicely sunlight storm.


The same storm abit later.


The storm engulfs Spearman, TX.






Storm now approaching Pampa.






I liked this shot as the cloud structures were interesting. The lightning illuminated it nicely.

Chase-O-Rama Day 6 Report!

(silly frame grab thanks to Steve Douglass)Did I ever mention how much I love living here? :-) I shudder at the thought of being stuck in North Central Texas area watching the daily festivities in the Panhandle....well out of reach. I endured that for far too many years. :-) I've chased every day for the past 6 days and loved every minute of it. You might say I've had 6 seasons of chasing in just one week (inside joke). ;-)

A quick forecast for today first. I don't have a clue. LOL! Surface winds are still chaotic and dewpoints already cratering in the PH. RUC forecast of 40's in the NW PH don't appear in error. Since storms will be moving down from the Rotan Mesa and E CO, they will be moving into drier air. With forecast weak low level flow, I'm just not very excited about today's prospects. However, this may translate into some lighting photography opportunties this evening. As it stands, I'm expecting to go home and chill out. I need it. ;-)

Now for yesterday's report. Pics are further below if you want to skip my long-windedness. :-)

Once again, another wild day unfolded around my stomping grounds and this time right in my backyard. I watched a pronounced outflow boundary moving westward towards Amarillo and even slowed abit upon getting here. An explosive supercell erupted just north of here and I knew it was going to be a wild show as it moved south along the boundary. Sure enough, it did. 80mph winds and higher gusts slammed the eastern fringes of town and around the airport. Significant damage has been reported, but indications are it's straight-line winds even though a tornado warning was issued.

I was standing out in the parking lot of where I work watching it roll in. It was quite a spectacle with one of the greenest cores on a storm I've seen. This was punctuated by shades of blue and purple with lower white clouds along the gust front exhibiting all sorts of wild motions. Then, the tornado sirens went off and chaos ensued here at work. I took advantage of that and slipped out to go chase it.

This storm was strongly outflow dominant with pretty cold and stout winds rushing out ahead of it. I wanted to get closer to the earlier outflow boundary as the storm interacted with it. But, because it was about to move over the roadless Palo Duro Canyon, I had to get south of the park itself in order to get into position. Despite my best efforts, I just couldn't get close enough to that outflow boundary interaction area. It was very interesting though from a distance as you could tell there was some action going on there, but nothing I saw hinted at any potential tornado activity. The rotation on radar though was pretty intense, so who knows?

After turning south out of Quitaque, I started seeing another storm popping up further WNW of the main action. I saw a surface ob someplace with strong easterly flow feeding into this thing. I thought that the massive, cold outflow from the earlier storms would kill it. But, it continued to improve on radar. I've seen this same thing before go on to produce a tornado, so off I went back west through Plainview.

As I got NW of Plainview near Edmonson, the radar presentation continued to improve and at least at a distance, I thought for a brief moment I saw a funnel dangling under the updraft base. Too many trees around the NW side of Plainview...dang it. In any event, the mammatus from this storm was very cool and pronounced. That and the updraft region structure along with radar presentation and the strong easterly winds feeding into it got my attention.

The storm would end up really developing a serious hook on it and with that, a beautiful bell-shaped wall cloud approaching Edmonson. I watched the entire transformation which was quite a treat. It never rotated much at all, but the upward velocities on the north side of it were pretty strong. But, the easterly winds flowing into it increased to 50-60mph, so I continued to think that there was still a threat of a tornado developing.

The storm continued moving towards me and while I was watching it, a gentleman comes up to me offering to sell me some Kestral weather gadgets. LOL!! I really admire such an entrepreneurial spirit! He handed my a brochure which was full of tactical weapon supplies...mainly for snipers...hence the wind measuring devices. I thought it was kind of cool really because in all the combat games I play, I spend alot of time playing a sniper kit.

Anyway, the storm continued churning SSE and the original wall cloud faded away. Interestingly, a sizable grass fire was started by a CG stroke and really lit up the horizon. I watched the smoke first flow into the storm and then switch direction as the gust front passed. Just as it really started blazing, the storm drenched and extinguished it. All of the smoke though getting sucked up into the newly developing updraft base was cool though.

I got to Hale Center and sought refuge under an overpass to await the hail (should be Hail Center...lol). But, the storm was weaking pretty quickly and pennies to nickles was about it. I then trekked home back to Amarillo treated to a nice sunset along the way and some new, smaller storms that popped up. Overall, another pretty good chase in the Panhandle! :-)

Pics!!

The monster as it was moving into the road void of Palo Duro Canyon State Park.



Dig that green core!



Awesome mammatus from the storm east of Dimmit around Hart and Nazareth.



Nice wall cloud evolving near Hart and moving towards Edmonson in the foreground.



Stormwood indeed.



Awesome wall cloud!! Commence stormgasm! :-) it never really rotated much, but was very cool indeed. LOTS of strong upward velocities on the north side (looking WNW). Inflow winds were very stout from the east at 50-60mph...albeit on the chilly side.



I like this shot depicting the awesome radar image and what was in the notch. :-) My position on the radar image is the blurry white circle to the ESE of it.



Another shelf/wall cloud developing on the southern edge of the cell.



The first wall cloud as it enlongates.



A grass fire ignited earlier by a CG stroke.



Nice shelf cloud near Hale Center.



Parting sunset shot as I head back to Amarillo.



I actually took this on Wednesday up NW of Amarillo on the Tascosa Highway. Now, what's funny about this sign is that the road itself is actually a nice, smooth paved road for nearly a mile before it really becomes muddy. :-)


I also want to congratulate and offer some kudos to my bud David Drummond for grabbing some stunning lightning pics yesterday around Lubbock. These are his first real good ones with his new camera he got this year. So, go check them out now and drool like I did. In fact, I'm jealous...that amber-lightbar yahoo. LOL!!

Chase-O-Rama Day 6!!

Yesterday was pretty much a yawner as I expected. At least it was for me compared to the last several days. Folks up in Beaver County, OK and Ochiltree County, TX weren't so fortunate as several injuries and significant wind damage occurred. I observed an elevated severe storm near Channing and followed it to Amarillo where I gave up on it. Met up with Jay McCoy and goofed around watching the nice sunlight storm to the east. We then topped it off with a visit to Rudy's BBQ which just opened in Amarillo. I love that place! :-)

Today however, the severe potential increases and could easily be a repeat of Tuesday's raucous action. The deeper moisture appears to have made a return and hopefully won't scour so severely like it did yesterday. The models seem to think low/mid 60's Td will prevail in the TX PH. This will lead to strong instabilities with lots of heating today. Forecast 700-500mb flow might be a tad on the weak side, but the southerly low level inflow will be good under NW flow regime. The RUC wants to surge a drypunch into the PH from the S and SW today which will be interesting to see what that does. This could be a nice boundary for a storm to ride SE along and go bonkers. We'll see. I'll narrow my target down later today, but thinking anothre trek west on I-40 might be in the cards.

I also want to point out a really nice blog that I just discovered. This is by Steve Douglass here in Amarillo who also knows Jay as part of Amarillo Emergency Services. Check out the Panhandle Skies Blog.

Another Wild Panhandle Chase! (with gorilla hail!)

A quick note on today, I'll once again be playing the western half of the TX PH today as the overall setup is similar to yesterday with one important note. Today, the forecast models indicate some weaker low level and 700mb flow compared to yesterday. I'm also not excited with cratering dewpoints again though with 48 at Hereford and 50 and Dumas already. Stay tuned for how this one turns out, but I'm thinking higher based outflow dominant storms...maybe yawners. We'll see.

Now onto the WILD chase yesterday...again! :-) The highlight of the day was the largest hail I've ever seen in my life. Details further below.

After blasting out of the office at 5pm, two storms north of I-40 were already showing impressive cyclonic echo patterns on radar. I knew this was going to be a good day when I saw that. However, there was alot of clustering going on. A rapidly developing storm along and just south of I-40 caught my eye. Seeing nothing developing to its south to interfere, I made my choice and stuck with it despite being strongly tempted to go after the two big cells showing TVS north of I-40 (which Jay McCoy actually saw a nice cone funnel almost to the ground). As I made my way towards Freona, it started becoming apparent that this southern cell was going to be a major beast.

I sat near Freona watching it slowly move south and get better organized visually and on radar. The NWS soon issued a tornado warning on it which got me really charged up as I watched an impressive radar signature with the storm right in front of me. Stormgasm indeed!! I then go on the phone with the NWS-LBB and started my reports as well as turning them onto the live chase cam giving them a front row to the spectacle. So, describing the RFD descending and cutting into the updraft base is much better when seeing it for yourself. :-)

I shadowed the storm as it moved south being able to stay right in the notch. I saw some moderate rotation in the base along with some RFD dust plumes and one nice rain-wrapping occlusion that I though was a precursor to tornadogenesis. However, I could never see anything spinning up on the ground other than some gustnadoes on the outer edges..nothing strong though. Then, the inflow started screaming at 60-70mph into this beast!! It was incredible!! Dust started flying and being sucked into the updraft area and wrapping RFD.

So, for most of the chase, the only way I could see into the notch and various rotating wall clouds was to get danger-close...but always with good escape options handy. I never could see anything really getting close to tornadogenesis and certainly nothing spinning up on the ground. There was one exception NE of Muleshoe where there MIGHT have been a little vortex in all the dust and rain curtain mess. Then, things got REAL exciting. :-)

The storm moved then east of Muleshoe by a few miles. I was close to it and about to take a south option to get around it again. I felt I had a good, safe distance from it like so many storms I've danced with before. Without any warning, on the road in front of me, a large white "artillery shell" exploded in a shower of ice chunks. Oh, shit! I immediately made a 180 while creatig some new colorful expletives. ;-) The barrage then ensued like a scene out of a WW2 movie with artillery raining down all around me. I was trying to be brave like John Wayne, but was in a bit of panic mode cursing and praying at the same time.

The smallest of the hail was tennis ball...most of it baseballs. A good number of them were softball size. A few were even larger than that to grapefruit. I even saw one in particular falling from the sky ahead of me that was larger than grapefruit. I swear under oath that this thing was probably cantelope sized....at least. No exaggeration. That image of it dwarfing every other chunk of ice hurtling to earth is burned in my mind. When it hit the road, it was by far much larger than any of the other chunks that were exploding on the road surface. The showering chunks from it tumbled into my lane and looked like golf balls!!

Soon, I escaped the onslaught suffering only 4 major strikes on the roof. All windows were intact. But, I do have some nice craters to show for it and an end cap from my luggage rack is gone. The craters are significantly deeper than the little ones I suffered in Kansas a few weeks ago with tennis and baseballs in that event.

As I got to safety, I stopped to report my encounter with one of the Muleshoe PD units watching the storm. Since my cell phone was not working (serious outages in the PH yesterday) he relayed my report to the NWS as softballs because at the time, I thought I might be exaggerating the size because of the adrenaline. :-) I called the NWS later and told them about the larger stuff. I regret now not going back after the hail passed to search for large stones in the field to photograph them. I still thought this thing would tornado though which made me decide not to.

I got a little further south as the storm crossed 84 SE of Muleshoe. I flagged down a few motorists to keep them from driving into such brutal hail. Interstingly, most said that they were going to drive into it because they just HAD to be somewhere...despite the vicious appearence of the storm. Yikes. They were appreciative though that I waved them down. Others that just kept going probably go severely cored.

At that point, road options weren't in my favor and I was eying another brutal storm approaching Muleshoe. So, I went back, found a nice, strong awning and watched the assault with 60-70mph winds and hail up to baseball in isolated instances. The sky turned to midnight with hues of orange, purple and green approaching the town. With the civil defense sirens wailing and the wind and hail picking up, it was a surreal scene. Hell had come to Muleshoe. Fortunately, it wasn't too brutal and spared the folks more serious damage side from a few dents and cracked windshields.

After that, I headed home to Amarillo. The end. :-)

Now a few pics...and only before it got to NE of Muleshoe where all the dust and stuff made it tough to see anything but a reddish fog. Did get some good video though.

The cell north of Freona prior to tornado warning. This thing was a beautiful storm from a distance according to David Drummond. I hope to see his pics soon!


Sorry about the powerlines in the shot.


This is where it really started to tighten up and made me think tornadogenesis was about to commence.


A rogue hail shaft I suspect. This same thing might have been what ambushed me later.


The wrapping rain curtains and small little spinups near it. Some would count those as tornadoes. I do not however.


The last decent shot I got of a lazily rotating wall cloud.

Yesterday's "Dirt-a-cane" and Round 4 Today

Today, I'm chasing again...4 days in a row on my home turf. It's about time! To me, the obvious play are storms coming out of NE NM and into the western half of the Panhandle where all parameters are much more favorable for the strongest storms. So, I'll escape the prison here at 5pm and likely blast west on I-40 towards whatever storm is looking best at that time. I'm running live streaming video again, so check out my live chase page (link on right).

Yesterday, aside from some beautiful, billowy updrafts on the storms I chased along the Hwy 70 corridor down to Matador, most of the chase was pretty much a yawner. That was until I got caught in a fierce downburst east of McAdoo...NW of Dickens. I stopped off on a plateau where a wind farm has sprouted up and lots of loose topsoil. Then...POW! Winds rapidly kicked up to 60mph and even up to 80mph...hurricane force. It was enough to cause me to turn the car into the wind.

The sky quickly turned into a thick soup of brownish-red dirt that totally blocked the setting sun. Visibility at times was total zero as anybody watching my live chase cam can attest too. :-) The wind was strong enough to pick up small pebbles and hurl them into the vehicle. This wasn't dust...but actual dirt. I'm surprised I've got paint left on the vehicle.

Now add to this a few brilliant blue lightning flashes in the thick, brownish-red air and it was like being on another planet!! Soon, sporadic large drops of rain would fall into the mix and upon landing on my vehicle would be muddy. This mixture started coating my vehicle and the windshield turning me into a big mudball. LOL!! The wind was still screaming with tons of dirt obscuring my view. I really thought it best to ride it out as often, I couldn't even see the road I was parked next to.

Then, my hero in shining amber lights showed up...David Drummond! LOL!! After feeling totally isolated on another planet, it was a good sight to see. So, I followed him as we carefully probed our way towards McAdoo where the conditions eased up enough to drive safely. This was THE most intense dirt-a-cane I've ever been in. It was awesome! ;-) David headed south and I headed back towards Amarillo.

Along the way, a little CG barrage in close proximity gave me a show with one bolt hitting about 200 feet into a field vaporizing something metal as blue sparks flew after the strike. I drove through another little core to help wash the mud off the vehicle. As I got closer to Floydada, I stopped and attempted some lightning photography, but just abit too far to really do it justice. I was tired and ready to get home.

Pics!!

I love these big, billowy updrafts exploding over the caprock. I guess I got tired of all the yellowish hazy skies in N TX for decades. ;-)


Another one. This would actually end up being the storm that tried to bury me in dirt.


The first storm I was on (from the first updraft above) that fizzled pretty quickly.


The "Honda Element Eater" before I got slammed.


The first outflow "jet" from the downburst.


A good-sized dusty gustnado.


In the action with the mudballs splattering my windows.


David ahead of me between assaults.


This was actually not some of the worst stuff we were in....but it is just up ahead.


A little lightning before trekking to Amarillo.

TX PH Chase-O-Rama - Day 3 (and yesterday's Festival Of Vortices)

I've shifted my target from Plainview/Childress to Dumas/Shamrock to Altus along the obvious boundary/front and close to the 20Z SPC 5% tornado threat...which I think might be more like 10% based on latest obs...particularly far W OK. The question is how much more W and S the boundary will move or evolve. I think with strong daytime heating, it wll slow significantly or even go stationary. Another scenario is a SE moving storm pushing out an outflow boundary westward where the next storm upstream could latch onto. It's a pretty complex mesoscale situation unfolding. Work obligations keep me planted in Amarillo until 5pm, but will blast outta here then. So, I'm in monitor/reactionary mode right now. This could be a fairly significant day. Stay tuned!

What a WILD and crazy day yesterday chasing up in the TX/OK PH around Perryton and Balko. I gave up on the "Hwy 287" beast as it was exploding near Groom/Goodnight. I was only about 30 miles away from it, but kept staring down those 40-50 degree dewpoint depressions it was moving into. All of the mesoscale parameters were more favorable up in the NE TX PH. So much for that forecasting, eh? LOL! I'm still glad I made the choice though.

The best way I can describe my chase yesterday was a "festival of vortices" dancing around everywhere. If I use the most liberal tornado countinng methodologies out there, I saw at least 25-30. :-) In reality, I saw ALOT of weak to strong gustnadoes, RFD dirt plumes, 2-3 landspouts, perhaps a brief tornado or two which I'll classify more as "hybrids" between a gustnado and tornado/landspout. The latter I'm defining as moderate/strong rotation on the ground with rotation in the cloud base above it...but no discernable connection in between. That does not mean there wasn't though, but not to imply there was either. For the skeptics and stormchaser police out there, remember, mother nature doesn't always follow our rules and doesn't like to fit in a neat little box of definitions we conjure up in our minds. ;-)

In any event, it was pretty crazy and fun!! I was able to run my live chase cam a good part of the time when the action was at it's most intense. However, I have an obvious short in the firewire connector on my camera. It would cut out out everytime I'd pan it enough to cause tension on the connector from the cord. Frustrating. It was running long enough though for the NWS in Amarillo to see what I was seeing in regards to the spinups and vortices. They were watching for a good while in fact. I was on the phone with them too on occasion describing other things I was witnessing such as storm behavior and characteristics and better detailing what they were seeing on the video. Through these discussions, they went ahead and classified one of the more robust vortices/landspouts a brief tornado. I saw a couple of storm reports from the event of power lines and maybe a pole or two being downed in these same areas. So, there was damage done.

One of the more intense moments was when the notch of the hooking supercell started closing in around me SW of Booker, TX. As I was about to make good my escape, a couple of strong vortices sprouted up in a freshly harvested wheat field next to me. They quickly spun up and became tightly spinning, tubular, snakelike vortices no more than about 10-20 feet wide. They quickly grew in height to about 100 feet or more and "danced" with each other. All of this happened within seconds as I hastened my escape while watching them in the rearview mirror. Whew!

Anyway, the storm became outflow dominant as it couldn't move south fast enough to keep up with it. I think it also moved into drier air in addition to the dryline or surface convergance backing off a bit from it. I got a good rainbow pic off it as it dwindled. I also discovered a cool little county park/lake SE of Perryton called "Wolf Creek County Park". It's kind of odd as you drive down into a little valley which is full of big, old oak trees. It's quite a distinct contrast from the flat, semi-arid grasslands in that region. The lake looked full and even "fishy". I intend to pay a more extended visit there sometime.

Today, it's another chase day. Three in a row! Yipee! :-) I haven't decided on a target just yet as it's a complex situation unfolding.I'm thinking Plainview to Childress right now. Parameters look good for another round of severe, but I fear it will quccikly go linear and squally. We shall see. I'll be monitoring it closely.

OK, time for some pics! They don't capture the vortices however because I was concentrating on streaming video, talking to the NWS and running my VX-2100...all the while watching radar and plotting my routes. That's alot of work. :-) I'll try to do some video captures later and hopefully get some archive footage from the severestudios guys. Don't hold your breath in me getting that done anytime soon. ;-)

The "287 Beast" around Groom/Goodnight before I drove away from it.


My view north as I came through Perryton. Stormwood commenced. ;-)


Detect any rotation? And yes, it had this ragged appearence. This is looking NW as I sat a few miles north of Booker into the OK Panhandle. Stormwood is now stormgasm.


First big dust plume getting kicked up by RFD and lifted towards the updraft base. This would be close to Balko, OK.


It intensifies with a bit of a twisty motion on the right starting up with some rotation in the cloud base. Things got crazy soon after this and I didn't use the still camera much. Mainly busy with video, streaming, and chatting with the NWS.


Another of the sudden, strong RFD dust plumes that would kick up and then rotate...underneath a pretty good rotating cloud base. This is SW of Booker.


Same feature a few minutes later with more brief little "spinups" underneath the rotating cloud base.


Another in a series of little "spinups".


A parting shot.

Chasing The Dewpoints & Yesterday's Account

Yesterday, we once again expereinced critically cratering dewpoints. Despite what I thought were favorable trajectories and moisture at 850mb, it wasn't enough. Dewpoints started in the 61-64 range and plummeted to 46-54 by afternoon. With surface temperatures in the 95-100F range, the dewpoint depressions were extreme. Thus, storms didn't have the juice to really rock and roll like I thought they would. Thus is the 2008 season on the caprock. I'm moving to Kansas!! LOL!!

Today, I'm getting off the caprock and into the far E/NE TX PH and W/NW OK to get some into some better juice. Again, parameters look great with excellent shear, veering, instability and helicities. I expect to have some fun today. My target today is May, OK.

Back to yesterday, I was able to get on a nice storm around Groom/Goodnight. This storm was stationary for awhile before surging south. I was in contact with the NWS in Amarillo providing them with as much information as I could. They were watching my live stream for a good part of the event, which I hope helped in conveying some visual information to them. One thing that is still lacking on the whole streaming thing is indicating which direction the camera is pointing. Sure, a phone call can help, but there has got to be a way to overlay that information on the stream itself. I have some ideas on that which I'll be working on in the off-season.

Anyway, the storm eventually produced a small, brief funnel at one point. Later, it produced a weak landpout somwhere north of Claude. At first, I thought it was smoke...then a gustnado...until it took on a more "tubular" apperence extending almost halfway up to cloud base. Jay McCoy was with me at the time and confirmed it. I hope he got a better pic of it. I called this one in to make sure the NWS knew that it was weak and rather brief and nothing to get too excited about in case somebody called it in as a real tornado. :-)

After that, it surged south as we watched another storm approach from Amarillo with a nice updraft and abit of wall cloud. It was definitely exhibitng broad rotation and worth keeping an eye on. In talking to the NWS, they were just as confused as we were with the radar presentation versus visual confirmation. It soon became a moot point though as it weakend and the other storms began to congeal and move SE.

I managed to get a couple of nice shots on one of my favorite highways...207 south of Claude as it dips down into the river canyon of the Prairie Dog Town Fork of the Red River. I eventually broke off the chase around Claytonville (SE of Tulia) to get some nice sunset photos on the storm..and then back home to bone-dry Amarillo.

PICS!!

The storm near Groom/Goodnight prior to going severe. The storm further in the background was the first, big severe cell NE of Amarillo.


The small, brief funnel cloud. It definitely needs some Viagra. LOL!


The landspout somewhere north of Claude. I'm not sure if this was before or after it looked it's best as I was busy trying to call it in. It was definitely rotating and actually moving back north towards the storm. This is an important distinction in my mind to help differentiate a gustnado.


Looking east from the Prairie Dog Town Fork of the Red River on 207.




Before I broke off the chase near Claytonville. I lost any stormwood as I saw dewpoints in the upper 40's feeding into this storm.


A bownado!! :-) I personally liked this shot.




The bownado in all it's glory. I liked this shot the best. Nothing like the caprock for some nice photos.

Panhandle Magic Today? (and a note about Tim Russert)

Finally, a very nice chase setup in my backyard today. All short range models forecast initiation in the TX PH anywhere from Hereford to Stratford...right around Amarillo. I'm leaning towards Dumas for initiation right now, but definitely subject to change. In any event, Amarillo folks better get ready for a real humdinger today. ;-)

This is a classic NW flow event. Such critters are difficult to forecast as far as storm mode. However, all the models indicate a more discreet and isolated mode which, with expected capping inversion in place and only a weak impulse in the mid levels, certainly has me thinking it will. Such an isolated supercell will be a real brutal one to be certain with a tornado potential. Monster, gorilla hail will be a sure bet as is the nature with NW flow storms as they plow directly into moderate/strong low level flow. This is what I refer to as "force feeding" a storm.

With S/SSE low level and 850mb flow sharply veering to NW flow at 30 knots in the mid levels, the stage is set for a very strongly rotating storm. It's also an excellent formula for breathtaking storm structures.

So, yeah, I'm stoked about it. :-) As usual, you can watch the action on my live chase cam....link is to your right.....your other right. LOL!! This could be a GREAT day!

On a sad note, Tim Russert, the famous NBC news guy who also hosted Meet The Press on Sundays, died suddenly yesterday of a massive heart attack. The guy was only 58. In any event, this is a VERY serious blow to true journalism in this country as he represented one of the last vestiges of such. He was tough with both Demorats and Republicans...unlike 98% of the media out there who give Demorats a free pass and let them get away with crap which they skewer Republicans over.

Mr. Russert held both parties accountable and would ask them really tough questions. he showed no bias or personal agenda and to me, represented what true journalism should be...getting both sides of a story or issue and representing each with fairness and balance thus letting us, the viewers, make up our own minds. With his passing, liberals and Demorats are rejoicing today as they now have one less person to be accountable to. For the rest of us, it is a tremendous loss.

NW Flow Frolicking & Latest Chaser Bitchfest

As the chase seasons slowly begins to wane with June marching onward, I feel abit dejected with the convective void over the Texas Panhandle for much of the year. It's been a tough one for sure. With that being said, I'm quite the happy camper to see Amarillo smack dab in the middle of a Day2 outlook...and on a weekend. :-) However, after being constantly burned this year (I feel like I'm living in North Central TX again! lol!), it is with guarded optimism to be certain.

However, the models are promising a favorable June pattern for the caprock over the next week or so. The upper ridge that has killed this region for the past couple of weeks is advertised to retrograde over the SW parts of the US leaving my stomping grounds under a W/NE flow regime.

At the same time, several frontal boundaries are also advertised to be floating around the area for much of the period ahead with a dryline and surface low making some guest appearences. I'm certain a few outflow boundaries will join the party too. Importantly, we may FINALLY get some decent moisture working up on the caprock for more than 24 hours. Perhaps I can end the chase season with the last half of June being quite active for the TX PH. We shall see. :-)

For tomorrow, the first round kicks off with an advertised impulse coming out of the CO Rockies rounding the top of the ridge into the TX PH. A weak surface boundary will provide some good focus and if the NAM is correct, will be oriented favorably with parallel flow aloft. However, it's also a favorable setup for a strong MCS. The trick of course will be if a storm can remain descreet or dominant enough to put on a show...versus a massive convective melee all at once.

With S to SE low level flow veering sharply to WNW or NW flow aloft, the shear will be incredible as will be storm-relative inflow. Instability will certainly be there for sure. IF....and that's a BIG IF...we can realize enough capping to inhibit one, massive convective bomb, then a more discreet of dominant cell could be a real nasty one with a tornado threat. As is the case with NW flow storms, it would also be a massive gorilla hail producer.

Right now, things are still very much up in the air. I'm certain storms WILL fire though. They WILL be severe. It's close to home and on a Saturday. Therefore, I chase. :-)

And about the latest bitchfest ongoing in the "stormcashing community" regarding live streaming video and the two chasers that got caught in a tornado and thus appeared on several TV programs about it, I've got alot to rant about. But for now, I'll just say that the Stormchaser Police Squad is very active and trying to destroy these two individuals. The "outrage" is tremendous.

As is typical, the chasers being skewered are not protected by the cloak of CFDG...nor have they a high number of posts on Stormtrack....and aren't big name, popular veteren chasers (or friends with somebody who is)....and isn't a "darling" of the "stormchasing community". Had they met any of the above conditions or criteria, it would be a non-issue right now and more like "Wow, guys, awesome video! Glad you are ok." instead of the reaming they are receiving right now. I created a "chaser logic flowchart" to help those who are new to this phenomena understand how things work. I'll create a more neatly detailed chart later down the road. :-)

It's a damned good thing that they didn't have any amber lightbars. ;-) My full rant about might appear down the road after the season is over with and I've got the time. Right now, there is chasing on my "to do" list. :-)

Texas Panhandle - Poster Child For Cratering Dewpoints

I'm surprised that nobody has noted that this year's extreme lack of supercells that the Panhandle is noted for directly correlates to my 1-year anniversary of moving up here. Furthermore, once I leave North Central Texas, they have one of the most active severe weatehr seasons in recent memory. In fact, they've had more tornadoes than the TX PH. I think that's a first for an entire decade. Stevoid indeed! LOL!!

I took a look at all the upper air soundings yesterday evening. It quickly became apparent why the higher elevation up on the caprock has experienced severe problems with moisture and dewpoints cratering with daytime mixing. There is a large chunk of dry air around 5,000 feet (850mb) across a good chunk of the GOM source region. I'm not sure how extensive this is, but it is large enough to screw us in the PH region where the elevation is 3,000 foot or higher.

As a result, any moisture that makes it up on the caprock is very thin. A little daytime heating along with strong winds to really mix things up and poof....dewpoints crater into the 30's/40's despite S and SE flow. Today is another example of that process and why I'm not optimistic about anything south of KS.

I have theories and hypothesis as to why we are struggling this year. The first is the late season powerful cold fronts that swept out the entire GOM region and into the Caribbean. The amont of dry air in the lower levels was tremendous across most of the North American region. Recovering any deep moisture is a very long process of which I'm not entirely certain as to the details and nuances of such processes.

So, then my thought turns to the lack of significant tropical activity the past couple of years. I wonder if that is a critical process in really juicing up the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere due to abundant tropical convection? I know it does to an extent, but how much of an impact is something I'm curious about.

I hope that any met students out there wanting to do a thesis would jump on this one. :-)

In any event, I'll have to endure yet another 100F day with dewpoints cratering into the 20's-40's. The forecast models are promising a welcome, prolonged change in the weather pattern favorable for the Texas PH region. We are in a very serious drought with Lake Meredith being at an all-time record low in it's 43 year history. For the year, Amarillo is running at 50% of average rainfall. We need rain and storms badly.

If the models are correct, then the low level flow will be out of the SE for an extended period thus bringing in some better moisture over time. With W and NW flow aloft setting up, it's an ideal pattern for storm complexes to migrate from the higher terrain over E CO and NE NM across this region. I hope this will help break the dry cycle we are in. As far as chasing, this type of pattern could have a few good opportunities. Time will tell.

Now to go enjoy a nice, cold glass of iced tea.

Chasing Today!

UPDATE 2330Z: Well, in what has become a common theme for the TX PH this year, a combination of brutal mixing smashing dewpoints and lack of good low level focus/convergence (dryline fizzled out totally), storms aren't going to pop. IN fact, SW KS is struggling pretty bad which tells me that the cap was, once again, abit stronger than models forecast. Oh well....maybe better luck tomorrow.

UPDATE 2200Z: Cap is holding firm thanks to the all too common mixing out of the dewpoint up on the caprock...10-15 degrees worth of mixing. Models once again miss out on that little important fact. There is still some convergence though as noted on radar analysis, but I am now losing much of the optimism I had earlier today. Will continue to monitor.

UPDATE 1915Z: Starting to focus on an area boundaed by Amarillo, Quitaque, Memphis, McClean, Pampa, Borger, back to Amarillo. Current anaylsis and satellite indicates convergence is being maximized in this area along with a good influx of moisture and backing surface flow. I'm also eyeing the nice dry punch starting to take shape along asn west of I-27. My thinking sis something firing along or more likely just east of I-27 within the target region I mentioned. As a storm or two explodes, they will quickly be moving into a favorable thermodynamic environment along and just off the caprock. Look for initial E movement and a quick transition into right-movers. Based on 300mb profiles, this looks VERY similar to the June 2 event last year. That is...IF the cap can be busted today. Stay tuned!

I'm starting to gain some confidence in an isolated supercell or two busting out from SW KS into the TX PH today. RUC continues to suggest at least moderate dryline convergence sharpening up later this afternoon and evening. Latest surface analysis would correspond with that trend. We will also get some aid in the caprock upslope as well.

The cap is certainly strong though, but the RUC 700mb temp forecast isn't too fierce. I think with enough convergence and maximized insolation, combined with any subtle dryline circulations and the caprock upslope, we will be able to bust it somewhere.

The vertical wind profiles are AWESOME with westerly mid level flow atop S 850mb flow and some backed low level flow with 15-25 knots sustained and gusty at the very least. The RUC is forecast SRH values in excess of 500 today across the eastern half of the PH. With CAPE values popping over 2500 (the RUC exaggerated values are up to 4500), all of the ingredients are there for a very ferocious, isolated tornadic supercell today....if the cap can be busted somewhere.

So, stay tuned! If I chase today, you can follow along on my LIVE CHASE PAGE (link on right).

Crazy Chase Day

Long report, so pop a cold one and get comfy. Pics are at the bottom if you just want the eye candy. :-)

In all the years I've chased, I've encountered some wild days. Yesterday's chase ranks towards the top to be certain. Jay McCoy and I chased together in the Texas Panhandle and W OK pretty much in Wheeler and Roger Mills counties. We saw many wall clouds including some that were rotating including a couple of violently rotating ones. We encountered numerous shear funnels and at least two bonafied well developed funnel clouds. The lightning was incredible as well with numerous close proximity hits and spectacular displays. It was wild!!

We elected not to go after the first storms that popped up near Canadian, TX and into NW OK. We stuck with a rapidly developing cell that popped up around Miami and appeared to remain a little more discreet. It continued to intensify and became severe warned as it moved near New Mobeetie into northern Wheeler county. The structure started getting it's act together with a beautiful, intense and sharply defined precip core. Just as it was getting organized and trying to develop a wall cloud, another cell that had fired SW merged with it temporarily disorganizing things.

We saw a rapidly developing supercell to the west of it along an obvious boundary. The cell was developing a classic hook on it as a result. I mentioned to Jay that it would produce a tornado. As we were about to give up on our original storm and trying to move westward towards the hooking storm, Jay noticed a rapid transformation with developing wall cloud on the storm we were leaving. This was an amazing and rapid evolution with every indication that we should pull over and gawk at it.

Sure enough, the wall cloud got organized and was exhibiting increasing rotation. We stayed with it as it was now moving east. At one point, we stopped at an intersection on Hwy 83 and watched very rapid and even violent rotation within the wall cloud and hooking precip core coming around behind it. We were in full video/camera mode watching it come together and expecting a tornado was imminent. It was incredible to watch!

One of the locals there in the parking lot with us repeatedly honked his horn which at first we ignored. He drove up next to us as we were fixated on the action in front of us. He finally convinced us to look west at a nice, well developed funnel cloud from the storm we were about to go after earlier!! LOL!! We quickly jumped into the behicle and got a vantage point to the west where we watched it dissipate...but got a couple of pics before it did. Our rotating storm we were on was now getting rain wrapped and moving off into questionable road networks. Drats!

For the next few hours, we would watch storms continuously develop hooks and develop new, wall clouds with various amounts of rotation. At one point when trying to get around one storm and into OK, we were sitting in the heavy precip core when we noticed a nice, slowly rotating funnel cloud nearly to the ground immediately to our north coming out of the precip shield.

We would end up in Roger Mills county in OK watching an incredible chain of storms each with wall clouds, suspicious lowerings, impressive shelf clouds with dizzying, rapid chaotic motions, and even some spectacular lightning which had joy and I cringing in the vehicle a few times. At one point after darkness fell, we watched one storm intensify and in the distance illuminated by lightning, we were observing what we though was certainly a fat little wedge tornado near Cheyenne, OK. We were at a distance though and could only see it with the lightning illumintating it, so we can't be 100% certain sicne we didn't discern power flashes with it. Interesting nonetheless.

Then some more drama was encountered when we punched the intense squall line along I-40 as we tried to get back to Amarillo. The rain and wind was so intense that it would sometimes completely obscure the highway...a total "white out" so to speak. No stripes or reflective markers could be seen. Throw in some insane lightning hitting all around us and it was pretty intenes to be certain. Thankfully, we made to Amarillo, tired but totally stoked after a wild, crazy, and fun day. :-)

To the pics!!

Just as the storm was getting cranked up. That little funnel feature to the left is NOT a true funnel cloud, but agitated scud under the rain-free base trying to form a wall cloud.


Looking really good at this point, but that precip core to the left is the little cell that would disrupt things.


A classic developing wall cloud which got Jay excited on this storm that we were about to abandon.


The fleeting funnel cloud on the cell further west. Amazingly, the rain curtains you see are from the storm we are on as it starts wrapping up into a hook.


This was south of Wheeler, TX with a beautiful scud cloud that quickly formed along the outflow/inflow interface that was the start of a new weakly rotating wall cloud.


An approaching storm in Roger Mills county, OK.


Impressive "convective" shelf cloud with a developing tornadic circulation (Dopplar indicated) further north where the road points to. This storm would quickly gain a tornado warning, but not sure if anything was observed.


A few minutes later as it moved over us.


I liked this shot with the developing wall cloud illuminated by lightning.


Now a few lightning pics to end. Not my best lightning stuff, but it's not bad.

Great Chase Day In Store!!

LIVE CHASE PAGE ACTIVE

Short on time, but targeting the Shamrock vicinity with an eye a little more west towards McLean/Clarendon. All forecast RUC parameters coming together nicely. I have a strong suspicion that the cap will be a little stronger than model forecasts and thus limit the western development to the I-27 corridor through 00Z....if that far west. This will be prime for a monster supercell to establish itself and become dominant and more isolated from the rapidly evolving linear stuff into OK.

I'm expecting very photogenic storms today and a couple of tornadoes.

The Chaser Human

2245Z UPDATE: Some pretty stout looking storms on radar in far E NM west of Bledsoe, TX (Cochran County). Still not sure if I'll venture that far south, but will at least get the gear in the car and "head that direction"...at least to Canyon. :-) Like a moth to a flame...lol!!

2130z UPDATE: It is quickly looking doubtful as to my venturing out to chase today. Models have done a horrible job in handling the moisture mixing out across the region. The TX PH gets screwed once again...miraculously. Dewpoints in my neck of the woods have cratered to the upper 40's and lower 50's instead of the lower to mid 60's advertised earlier this morning by models. Ugh. I'm not chasing where dewpoint depressions are 40+....not with gas as expensive as it is. Storms will probably pop in the SE NM area and move into the LBB area, but poor mid and upper winds that far south will keep me firmly planted here in Amarillo. I'll continue to monitor things however just in case.

CHASING TODAY(a big IF) & TOMORROW! Check out my "Live Chase Page" where I'll be running a live video stream as well as my GPS position overlayed on radar.

After getting screwed around by a particular production company trying to film "stormchasers" right now, I'm looking forward to chasing today and tomorrow here in the Texas Panhandle...FINALLY!! LOL!! After being dryslotted here in the PH all season long, we are finally getting into a pattern which promises some action for my neck of the woods. Hopefully, I can put an end to the insanity of always racing east to catch up to storms moving away from me well into Oklahoma.

For today, it's a tough call, but the area from Amarillo to Lubbock looks good for today. I'm focusing on the Canyon/Happy area as of now based on model forecasts, surface analysis, SPC mesoanalysis, and latest visible satellite imagery. Lots of moderate CAPE with strong southerly boundary layer flow with WSW flow aloft and some surface convergence looks promising.

The 300mb winds are progged to be rather weak, so anvil level ventilation will be pretty poor resulting in more HPish type storms. However, with dewpoint depressions fairly high, this might not be too bad with more of an LPish type environment. If any storm really gets cranking, it could very easily start propagating southward and going nuts (refer to June 2, 2007). I certainly plan on being there today ready for action. :-)

However, latest surface obs show dewpoints trying to crater abit into the mid and upper 50's which the models didn't forecast. Hopefully this will be the extent of the mix-out and the dewpoints will remain at least 60Td along the I-27 corridor. We shall see, but I'm worried about it quite abit. Storms should still pop and be severe, but the tornado potential will be pretty much zero until sunset and afterwards when the dewpoint depressions start lessening.

Tomorrow is looking even better for the TX PH. A front slides down and becomes stationary parallel to the mean upper flow. Throw in strong boundary layer winds perpendicular to that surface boundary and perhaps a dryline intersection along it, a classic setup conducive to a tornadic supercell or two is certainly there. Model forecast SRH values along the front approach 500 and with moderate instability once again, a nice, big show is in store locally for tomorrow.

I'm itching to get some really good photogenic storms for this year. The last one I got was 5/31 in OK, but it was a frustrating effort to get good pics. That last really good daytime shot was back in April in SW OK. The tornado I caught near Beaver, OK a couple of weeks ago was nice, but then too, frustrating because I couldn't setup for a real good shot of it...but was happy with what I got. The exploding updraft pic from that day was pretty cool too.

So, I'm truly ready for some good stuff to point my lens at and capture. June is often known for some of the most beautiful and sculpted supercells along with incredible night time lightning opportunities. So, I'm optimistic. Wish me luck. :-)

A Lesson In Forecasting

WELL....not quite the massive outbreak yesterday I thought it would be. I am quite happy to have busted my forecast of the isolated tornadic cells out ahead of the main line. Several did in fact try to form, but were just out ahead of the line and quickly got overtaken or swallowed up.

Kudos to David Drummond for making a very nice forecast on this event. He nailed it.

Nevertheless, this was a significant severe weather event to be sure. Widespread wind damge with the squall line and bowing line segments has been reported. A few tornadoes did pop up with several embedded ones doing some damage which reports are still coming in about. I've seen a few estimated 100mph+ reports of some of the most serious straight-line wind damage.

And as expected, storm motions were as much as 65mph...mostly 45-55mph. That's why I was happy to stay put in Amarillo and not waste my time and precious fuel. There is some value in previous experience with such setups. :-)

And, one of the funniest storm reports I've seen.....

0345PM 06/05/2008
Tstm Wnd Dmg | 4 N Wakeeney | Trego Ks Law Enforcement
Several Power Poles Were Blown Down. Elephants With A Circus Were Spooked By The Thunderstorm And Were Running Loose In Wakeeney.

Seriously, can you imagine sitting there filming a wall cloud or something and this circus elephant comes parading into your shot? Or worse yet, tramples your vehicle? Try explaining that one to the insurance company. :-)


Back to the situation that unfolded today....

This is yet another example of a storm system being TOO strong with massive 700-500mb UVV...strong linear forcing. I'll be going back to study this one to try and better understand when to expect isolated cells out ahead of the main line. My first thoughts are that the mid level jet core was "too tight" and narrow. Anything ahead of the line was on the very strong anti-cyclonic side of the jet streak...thus the capping and subsidence.

I did see some confluence well ahead of the dryline though in norther and central OK which was leading me to believe something would pop slong that confluence zone (reference May 3, 1999 case studies by Rich Thompson and Roger Edwards and others). The better dynamice were up across Nebraska into Iowa where the jet exit region existed creating more diffluence aloft and thus a broader area of convection erupting up there. Again, I've got a little studying to do. :-)

Interestingly, the better, more discreet tornadic cells happened early on WEST of the developing squall line. A nice dry punch at the surface with the mid level jet dynamic nosing into the area popped some persistant tornadic cells in far W KS and the CO border region. These storms earned a blue box. :-) I didn't see that one coming. Chalk up another one for the books.

In any event, I'll be busy getting stuff done in preparation for a possible chase-o-rama in the Panhandle region starting Sunday and into at least the middle part of next week. It's about friggin' time. All of us chasers based up here are sick and tired of hauling but east, north or south to see good storms. If I see another week of strong SW winds and dewpoints in the 20's with the dryline well east into OK, I'm going throw a hissy fit. ;-) This is June, so let the Pahandle come alive.

For the past 3 runs, Sunday has been advertised with an excellent setup around the OK PH area. If it pans out as advertised, then it could very well result in one helluva show locally. Stay tuned for that. I can't wait to have a serious chase closer to home for once. :-)

Hell Cometh To Tornado Alley Today

Mother nature is poised to unleash a vicious wrath upon the plains states today. From Minnesota to Oklahoma and perhaps the Red River Valley of Texas, a very significant and dangerous event is unfolding. I truly hope that everybody living in these areas maintain a constant vigil every minute of every hour with a plan of action to take shelter. It promises to be a brutal assault from the skies above.

The most "impressive" aspect if this system is the unusual strength of the upper air system for this time of year. All of the models advertise a 80-90 knot 500mb jet streak arriving and taking hold at peak heating today. That's something I'd expect to see in April this far south. So, the energy aloft crashing into the plains today is pretty astounding to say the least.

The 80-90 knot mid level jet streak is also why this is such a serious situation unfolding as storm speeds will be 45-55 mph reducing warning and reaction times. And, it's also why I'll sit this one out...even if I had the day off to chase. I might consider just south of the Red River though, but only to catch something a little slower moving. In any event, storms will be moving rapidly.

Today will see the entire meteorological encyclopedia (including snow in higher elevations of CO?). All modes of severe weather, and extreme examples of each, will be seen today. The main scenario is a big, honkin' squall line rapidly developing along the DL/front with tornadic supercells at first followed by embedded tornadic cells in the line. Bowing segments will likely be moving pretty rapidly with vicious straight-line winds. I certainly expect to see 100mph+ reports from the linear stuff.

The biggest concern are isolated tornadic supercells ahead of the line. It certainly looks like a pretty sure bet this will happen, but exactly where is tough to forecast. I'd say KS has the best shot at this down to the I-40 corridor in OK. Any of these beasts certainly will have a tendency to be impressive, cyclic tornado producers and perhaps even long-tracked and violent ones. It is certainly something to be weary of today.

I hope and pray that damage today will be minimal with towns and cities spared the violent tornadoes. Everybody in the weather and public safety community will be called to active duty today. They face a very long and stressful day and I don't envy them one bit. I certainly hope that the general public will pay heed to any and all warnings and keep a constant ear to NOAA Weather Radio or a reliable TV/radio station today and be ready to take immediate action.

Some Humorous Pics

Here are a few pics from my chase excursion over the Memorial Day weekend. One of the BEST things about stormchasing is the comradere and a shared brotherhood of pursuing mother nature's most violent tantrums. Plus, all the gut-busting laugh riots make the pain of fuel costs more endurable. I had a blast! Many thanks to the guys below:

Here is a pic from the "West Texas Posse" aka "West Texas Banditos" or "West Texas Lightbar Mafia" (thanks to Jay for that one). :-) That's me in the goofy hat. Dennis Sherrod is the guy in the middle representin' da south-eeeest, boyee! David Drummond is next to me. Jeff Bernard is on the right with Jay McCoy next to him.


Then, somebody yells out "Stormchaser Police" and we quickly flash our gang symbols (mine is reverse...gotta work on that...David and Jay got it down)


I finally found something symbolic of the "Stevoid"...my propensity to squash storms. I wonder if the little character here will ba labeled a yahoo? Not if he's a CFDG member! LOL!!


This is honor of David's new status as a stormchasing god amongst mortals. I mean, even lightning can't strike this guy down.


In all of my many years of chasing, I finally screwed up (mainly by not listening to David...lol) and discovered what really was in that green core. The center point of impact is about the size of a MLB regulation baseball. The windshield needed replacing anyway because of a few cracks from rocks. At least I didn't trash a rental car.

05/31/2008 Super-Duper-Cell Photos

I shot alot of photos, and these were the best I could get. The exposure efforts on this beast were very challenging and difficult. I also had some focusing issues on a few series. Combine that with absolutely horrid terrain and road options in that area of Oklahoma fron Hinton to Anadarko, and I'm fortunate to have captured the ones I did. :-) I did play with the exposure abit to really enhance the structure as it really appeared. So, the lightning flashes are really blown out. And, really, those are true colors too...no enhancement except to increase saturation as I always do with RAW images. Also, pardon the "Batman" angles too as I was a tad excited. :-)

Trying to intercept and get around the beast as it was exploding....looking SW. This updraft is in reality the left-split the spun off and moved north with a perfect anti-cyclonic hook and circulation.

Chase prospects today...in doubt

I'm sitting here in Elk City, OK pondering the mighty 700mb cap (15C) spreading over W OK. Despite strong convergence and favorable surface parameters, I'm beginning to seriously doubt the cap can be overcome without some sort of aid in the mid levels in the form of an impulse. Unlike yesterday, I can't find any hint of that right now. After looking at the incredible potential later this week, it is looking like a more reasonable decision to mozy on back to Amarillo. I'm heading to Sayre and watch the struggling cumulus along the frontal boundary out there and let that be my guiding light so to speak of heading on home. Stupid upper ridge!

INCREDIBLE OK Supercel!!!

First off, I have to extend a big thanks to Jay McCoy for helping to inspire me in not giving up yesterday and heading to Woodward. So, I headed back east to around Fairview, OK watching cells trying to go up there. I suspect that the 700mb capping inversion was pretty stout and deep based on the behavior and appearence of struggling updrafts. I was kinda miffed that my Woodward/Alva target was not going to materialize. I had no idea that ju