3/30/08 Report & Pics

Jay McCoy and I teamed up and headed into Oklahoma. It became evident by about noon that my target of the Texola area was too far W and NW. My earlier morning target of Mangum was the better choice after all. I had a high level of confidence that storms would pop well before dark. The boundary layer convergence was way too strong not too in the absence of any sort of subsidence.

Carefully analyzing the surface plots and radar loops, it was quite obvious the triple point was in far SW OK. As we headed south from Elk City, we crossed the front into the warm sector and noticed a very sharp change in wind direction and dewpoints. Cu was getting agitated indicating we were in the perfect spot sitting up near Granite.

We chatted via cell with David Drummond who had a great view of the towering Cu above us from the south (thanks David!). It wasn't long before the first blips on radar started showing up within a couple of miles of us. :-) We watched the cells erupt and die with several orphan anvils. The updrafts looked mushy at first...but not for long. Just to our NNE, I witnessed one of the most rapid developments of an explosive supercell storm I've seen. Mushy updrafts to rock solid cauliflower updrafts in mere minutes. The party is ON!! I busted some moves performing the "Sacred Forbidden Dance Of Chaser Merriment"!!!

We intercepted the cell NW of Hobart thanks to slow storm motions (amazing for late March!!). It was a beautiful classic supercell. It went SVR and we stayed with it as a stronger storm was looming to our SW back near Mangum/Granite. As we feared, the strom we were on started getting seeded heavily and diminishing in appearence. So, we busted SW to the other storm...which was starting to develop a nice wall cloud.

We got to it and setup nicely and watched it try to wrap up a couple of times even producing a couple of brief, weak funnels. It seemed that the RFD was just abit too strong and cold...likely because of shallow moisture. Once again just NW of Hobart, it tried to wrap up again and produced a decent funnel cloud briefly....the one I think David had on his streaming video. But, the storm's base just seemed a bit too high allowing the cold outflow to undercut it. I think this due to a shallow moisture layer over the area. There had been alot of SW flow in that area prior to the backing flow and convective initiation.

We played with it for awhile and watched a couple of more brief funnels, including one almost overhead north of Hobart. At this time, David caught up with us and we caravaned most of the rest of the evening. We started noticing an intensifying storm further WNW sporting a nice, broad lowering. We decided to go play with this one since it was getting dark and it was towards Amarillo (had to work the next day). We watched this storm slowly get its act together and sport a hookish pattern on radar. So, we hung with it for a while near Cordell. Things started chaning with the first tornado warning issued for the storm we just left. LOL!!

We stuck with the western cell though. It started to appear that is getting smacked with alot of cold outflow from the eastern cell. So, we started to head home. As we did, I noticed the storm visually started looking better. A look at the radar was astounding....a flying eagle signature with a bit of a hook! Wow! To heck with going home. :-)

We headed east on 152 paralleling the intensifying storm as it approached Corn...yep...Corn, Oklahoma. :-) It was about this time a TOR was issued for it. Woohoo!! We headed north on 54 to get in front of it. We kept seeing an ominous lowering embedded in the notch and hook. The inflow was really picking up pretty seriously. We ended up stopping just east of Colony with David joining us.

We tried to get out, but the inflow was so strong, it made it a struggle to open the door. Incredible! It was at least 50-60mph sustained with higher gusts. We could almost lean into it. This was an apparent inflow jet correlated nicely with the deep notch on radar. The lights went out in Colony which really had us thinking a tornado was in the storm somewhere. We were getting a bit ancy as it approached us. We were intently scanning for power flashes and didn't see any.

We could make out some whitish clouds along the edge of the storm moving at a good clip south to north perpendicular to us and the inflow. It was about this time that the inflow duddenly increased even more....probably 70-80mph in my estimate. It was INTENSE!!!! With all of the trees and power lines howling, it made it all the more errie. We all reacted instantly and fled to the vehicles and got the hell out of there!

We got to 58 and headed south back towards 152. By this time, it was getting real late and Jay and I both desperately needed to get on the road. Determining that this storm still hadn't produced a discernable tornado with all of that massive inflow, we decided to head home. We waited south of the cell on 58 waiting for it to pass. In true fashion, we heard the spotters reporting a brief tornado near Sickles WNW of Lookeba. Rats. We were on the wrong side of the hook and couldn't see it. Too late now.

So, we stayed in place and then proceeded north to I-40 as the cell moved away. As we got a couple of miles from I-40, we encounted some minor roadway flooding where a Doppler estimated 7 inches fell. Then, we encounted MAJOR hail on the ground up to 3 inches deep in drifts. Everywhere we looked, it was white! It looked like a snow or sleet storm from winter...complete with fog. There were a couple of vehicles actually stuck on the road becasue they could not get traction. Jay had to engage the 4x4 so we could make it through. It was incredible!!

That's it. Arrived in Amarillo at about 2:30am. Ugh. Now some pics!!!!!

DFW Threat

Final Update: The dryline, which popped the intense supercells around DFW which pompted tornado warnings, crawfished westward based on radar and surface analysis. Naturally, the storms died quickly as their source of boundary layer convergence died as well. The DFW area should count themselves quite lucky today that a couple of tornadic supercells didn't spawn tornadoes and rampage across the area.

First off, I apologize for not being to update from the road yesterday. I'll get that kink worked out next trip. I'll post a report with pics this evening, but in short, it was a really fun and exciting chase.

Right now, I'm very concerned for the DFW area for the next several hours into this evening. I think there is a strong threat for torndoes around there. Dryline to the west with isolated supercells exploding along it. They will move into a pretty favorable area for tornadic development along the I-35 corridor. This evening, a front will end up along the Red River Valley further enhancing tornado potential. I hope folks down there are paying close attention and prepared to take action.

UPDATE: Things are cranking up near the DFW area....


!!!!!!!!!!...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHWESTERN BRYAN COUNTIES... AT 502 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR LITTLE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PEOPLE NEAR LITTLE CITY SHOULD TAKE SHELTER NOW!

AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION LOCATED NEAR MELISSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 27 MPH. ROTATION WITH THIS STORM CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND THE WARNING MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A THUNDERSTORM OVER DESOTO...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH. ROTATION WITH THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED AND THE TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 PM. THIS STORM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REINTENSIFICATION.

AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION NEAR NEAR CEDAR HILL...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH. THE ROTATION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE 345 PM BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN. EARLIER...THIS STORM DAMAGED OR DESTROYED TWO HOMES IN GODLEY IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DESOTO...GLENN HEIGHTS AND OAK LEAF BY 415 PM CDT... LANCASTER AND RED OAK BY 420 PM CDT... HUTCHINS...WILMER...FERRIS AND BALCH SPRINGS BY 430 PM CDT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRISCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 357 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRISCO..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... FRISCO BY 410 PM CDT... FRISCO AND PLANO BY 415 PM CDT... PROSPER BY 425 PM CDT... ALLEN AND CELINA BY 430 PM CDT... MCKINNEY AND FAIRVIEW BY 435 PM CDT... LUCAS BY 440 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LEWISVILLE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... THE COLONY...HACKBERRY AND LITTLE ELM BY 400 PM CDT...

AT 339 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RENDON..MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MANSFIELD BY 345 PM CDT... CEDAR HILL STATE PARK BY 400 PM CDT... CEDAR HILL STATE PARK AND CEDAR HILL BY 405 PM CDT... DUNCANVILLE...GLENN HEIGHTS...OVILLA AND OAK LEAF BY 410 PM CDT... DESOTO AND OAK LEAF BY 415 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR FLOWER MOUND..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LAKEWOOD VILLAGE AND OAK POINT BY 345 PM CDT... LAKE LEWISVILLE...LITTLE ELM...HEBRON AND LINCOLN PARK BY 350 PM CDT... THE COLONY...HACKBERRY AND LITTLE ELM BY 355 PM CDT...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTIES... AT 321 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KEENE...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH. STORM SPOTTERS REPORT A FUNNEL CLOUD MAY BE FORMING IN THIS AREA AT 321 PM CDT.

3....2.....1....

NOTE: I'll be updating my live chase blog starting this afternoon: http://www.texastailchaser.com/tailcaster/ I'll also be on http://spotternetwork.org/google.php if you want to track my position.

Okay, chase day is here..finally!! :-) Latest 12z NAM and RUC have shifted things abit, not unexpectedly. However, they are in close agreement. Interestingly, the NAM has the surface low or triple point closer to Pampa, TX by 00Z. The RUC just a little east of there closer to the TX/OK border.

I see alot of hand-wringing and worrying about nothing breaking out until after dark. If I had a dollar for everytime a big isolated tornadic cell popped up by 23z where the models didn't predict anything until after dark, I'd be a very wealthy individual. :-)

The RUC is abit too aggressive with the 00Z precip forecast, but I think it has the right idea of adequate BL convergence to get those parcels to the LFC. I'm going to predict initiation between 22 and 23z. There will be very strong insolation all day today out in W OK and the TX PH. Moisture convergence with strong BL convergence and a decent triple point along with a dryline bulge will work together to pop off something by 23z. The cool thing is that it will likely be one or two isolated cells until after dark.

All of the parameters are there for tornadic supercells today and late this evening. The model parameters indicate south of I-40 for the best environment. My target this morning was Mangum, OK, but I'm starting to think more like Shamrock/Texola/Wellington along the TX/OK border along and just south of I-40 if the triple point ends up just west of there. I'll be monitoring data to see where it will eventually end up this afternoon.

I'll be teaming up with Jay McCoy in his vehicle. So, with his blues/reds on top, I'm sure we can "disgust" some other chasers out there today. LOL!

10...9...8....

Counting down the hours until chase day tomorrow. Although it will likely change as more model data rolls in, my target right now is May, Oklahoma as close to the triple point as possible. The major concern is whether storms will fire before dark. I believe they will with such pronounced and strong surface convergence. If we did have any notable upper air feature providing forcing, it would line out quickly. So, I'm glad we don't. This could be a one or two cell event until 03-06z.

After talking with Jay McCoy, one thing to consider is just how dry it is out here in the PH and W TX. Given that a surface low is progged by 18z around the eastern OK PH, ew could certainly see a more pronounced dryline bulge/punch than currently forecast....and likely right along the I-40 corridor. But, I'll wait until morning to see how that might play out. Heck, things might shift into the NE TX PH or even Kansas. LOL

Regardless, all of the parameters are there for a small scale, but significant event through early evening. Tornadoes are a good bet. More on this in the morning prior to heading out. I've got to go finish some errands and then get the chase equipment ready this evening.

Let's Roll!!!

TOR in OK

Yep, I thought something like this might happen. :-) I hope one of my Oklahoma homies are on this one. Left images are the base tilt. Right images are Tilt2.

(click on image for larger view)

636 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
...TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND ONE MILE NORTH OF COUNCIL HILL...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FORNORTHEASTERN
AT 635 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERSCONTINUED TO TRACK A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WASLOCATED NEAR COUNCIL HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

Uber Weather Weeniness (A Cool Blog Site)

For the weather weenies out there like my self, you need to bookmark this blog and make an occasional visit:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/

I posted a snippet from there the other day about the very cool undular bore just off the Texas coast. Now, check out the blog entry about the recent massive flooding in the Midwest and Mississippi Valley region. They have a cool entry right after that too concerning the "Mudstorm" that hit the San Antonio area.

Be sure to browse through the archives as well. I found some gems like these:

Texas Wildfires:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/614

Enhanced-V and Warm Trench Signatures:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/424

Visible Hail Swath Damage:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/425

Eagle Pass Tornado Event (and impressive warm trench image):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/402

The Infamous March 28th, 2007 Outbreak (which I try to forget...lol):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/378

Those are just some samples...plenty more cool stuff to check out while enjoying your favorite cold beverage and snack. ;-)

Cool stuff!!

Watching The Pot

The old saying goes: "A watched pot never boils". Indeed, with the gorgeous weather outside right now with temps near 80 and clear skies, my SDS is raging furiously. Days seem like weeks while I wait for my first real good chase. The last time I've seen a serious thunderstorm was the rare October night time tornado event here last fall....and that was just distant lightning. It's a crime, really. In fact, we haven't had much rain in a long time. Lake Meridith is now at it's all-time low.

Yesterday, the models weren't offering much hope for anything until Sunday. Now, they are keeping the zonal flow much more broad across the southern plains this week into the weekend. Undoubtedly, subtle ripples and impulses will traverse the region which the models will have a difficult if not impossible time handling.

There will be a dryline, surface low and cool front meandering around the region through then. Moisture begins returning in earnest tomorrow and gets better each day. Surface convergence is forecast to be moderate to strong each day. It still looks like any action would be east of the caprock however until Sunday-ish. But, nonetheless, I think each day will offer a chance for a chasing opportunity in OK or northern parts of Texas. With strong insolation, increasing moisture/instability, and mid level flow either perpendicular to the dryline or parallel to the quasistationary/oscillating surface front, one isolated storm could really put on a show.

With so many unresolved variables, it will be tough to really nail down a forecast until the morning of each day ahead. So, definitely keep an eye on things....especially for you Okies and North Texans. I know I will be watching the pot waiting impatiently for it boil over. By the weekend, things look more promising and abit more certain. Still a ways out, but definitely some promise.

Stay tuned.

Chase Season Commencement & Undular Bore

Well, the spring season has been pretty lethargic so far in terms of severe weather for the southern plains. The extremely annoying upper air pattern we've seen for several months now with a persistant trough over the east coast is finally starting to change. The transition into one more favorable for some good chasing will be ongoing this week. We should see some performances of the "Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment" soon. :-)

It looks like OK/KS should see some possibilities the latter half of the week depending on the zonal jet configuration. Right now, the models want to keep the jet a bit far north with the better surface features on the anti-cyclonic side of the jets. This will work against getting some good supercells to pop due to weak subsidence. I'm not saying impossible, just pretty long odds.

However, things change pretty quickly by about Sunday. If reality evolves from the model advertisement, then it could be the first real decent chase opportunity. It is still a good ways off in the future, but the models have been pretty consistent in the favorable pattern about that time. Between now and then, there will be no more strong fronts blasting into the Caribbean, so we should be able to realize some prolonged moisture return this week setting us up nicely. It is after all approaching April...winter can't hang on forever. :-)

Unfortunately, balmy temeperatures this week and a pretty dry airmass over the panhandle and western Texas with strong surface winds will make the fire danger extremely volatile. We desperately need some good rainfall out here.

In other news, a week or two ago, a fascinating example of an Undular Bore (gravity wave) showed up off the Texas coast. Check it out!!

3/17/08 Radar Images & Analysis

Forgive me as I indulge in some weather weeniness. :-) The severe weather event Tuesday was a real headache to forecast. Mother nature made some moves against us like ol' Barry Sanders against a big fat lineman. The one thing about this system is that a large and very important area was over old Mexico where data is practically non-existent for models to digest. It's always a guarantee that such systems will cause serious forecasting headaches and this one did so in true fashion. It slowed and dug more than expected. Welcome to "forecasting" Texas weather. :-)

Anyway, here are some interesting radar images from Tuesday's severe weather event. The first one is a classic splitting cell near Seymour where my Okie homies were hanging on the street corner and flashing chaser gang symbols as they claimed new turf. ;-)

Then the result I thought at the time would be a spinup from the right cell that split off....a classic signature. However, it would soon die off....much to my amazement. The Oklahoma Gang is the small bluish dot to the east of the hook.


My attention was focused on the big storm of the day in Bandera County not too far southwest of Kerrville at 0019Z. This is a pretty strong velocity couplet (bright reds next to greens indicating outbound winds and inbound winds relative to the radar site) indicating very strong, tight rotation. I have no doubt that a tornado was on the ground during this time period. There's just nobody out there except jackrabbits and cows to report it. Hmmmmm...."COWARN"? LOL!!! (and dig my cool little large hail icon)


Thirty minutes later at 0049z, the rotation is at it's strongest with inbound winds into the storm (the purplish inside the red) maxed out on the level 3 data. The first image is tilt 1 and the second one is tilt 2. I'd say that it's spinning like a top. :-)



This is a reflectivity image 15 minutes later along with velocity tilts 1 & 2. Anybody doubt that a tornado is probably ongoing at this time?





In the midst of all the images above, I captured a pretty neat image of a nice BWER (Bounded Weak Echo Region) at tilt 2 associated with a nice hook at tilt one. Notice the tilt 3 image showing a strong and pronounced overhang or vault region above the BWER. The images are ordered from left to right. The timestamps are the actual scan time at that tilt, so they are offset from each other by a minute or two. Use the small green circle as a common reference point.


One of the interesting things about this storm is it developed out there by itself from all of the other stuff developing a good ways to the NW around Abilene and Coleman County. I wondered what was causing it to form where it did as I did not see anything on surface analysis. However, there were strong southeasterly winds moving upward from the lower-elevation coastal plains to the Edwards Plateu. Could this been just enough orographic lifting to get this storm going in a capped airmass? It's an interesting theory to ponder. I think it certainly had something to do with it.

Check out this second supercell forming in almost the same place as it's predecessor to the northeast in the images above. There is even a third, weaker cell just behind the second one off the screen. So, something was definitely focusing the formation of those storms in that one particular spot...just about the edge of the Edwards Plateau right along the Balcones Escarpment. Talk amongst yourselves. ;-)


So, I hope you found it as interesting as I did. The models are still advertising a favorable shift in the upper pattern starting the middle/latter part of next week. Chase season may finally kick into gear. Here in the PH, there is a chance of snow mixed with rain on Easter. LOL!!! Be gone, ye old man of winter!!

Lastly, I found out Sprint is requiring a two-year agreement on data plans. Ouch. But, if you order it online, you get a free 595U aircard. So, that's not too bad. It would really suck if you bought one and then found out you could have gotten it for free. My freebie is on the way. With that in mind, I'll be selling my WxWorx equipment. I just won't be needing it as I don't expect to chase in areas where it is necessary. The first $500 takes it. Holler at me if you want it or need details.

Texas Tornado Two Step

LIVE UPDATES:

0225z (really, truly my last post lol): Sho 'nuff. TOR issued for Coleman county for that cell coming out of Runnels. Pretty nice radar presentation and velocity couplet. David is right in the middle of it. Go Dave!! Overall, I was pretty happy with the way my forecast ended up today with STE to JCT as my target area favoring Junction. :-) Okay...I'm done. Zzzzzzzz.

0208z (last update for the evening): All of the storms seem to be winding down now. I'm eyeing the one in Runnels county now near Ballinger. Good rotation indicated on it now east of Ballinger and come hookish tendency. Strong meso now indicated on it. David Drummond is very close to it now. I think it will pop a TOR on it soon. The cell approaching Kerrville has a nice hook on it with some rotation indicated. This one looks ominous for Kerrville. This is my last post for the evening as I need to prepare for a work day tomorrow.

0147z: David Drummond reported that he caught a nice cone funnel and possible tornado on that cell earlier in Coleman county. He just reported a massive and impressive beaver tail associated with the hooking cell in far NE Runnels county. Radar presentation looks good, only mid level rotation right now.

0138z: AT 829 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE COLEMAN

0125z: Impressive twin tornadic cells around bandera county. As the first one exits the county, another one is hot on it's heels entering the county from the west. It will be interesting to see how this second one interacts with the outflow boundary from the first storm. Sometimes, these secondary storms riding along such a boundary can really be the more inttense of the two cells.

4 panel reflectivity showing the BWER and overhang in Bandera county. Dig that hook!



0107z: The "storm of the day" continues in Bandera county and barely crawling north. Very impressive radar signatures including incredible BWER with sharp overhang. This has got to be one beautiful storm in person. I'll load some images shortly. More comprehensive images tomorrow evening.

Other storms that were TOR warned SW of Abilene around Coleman and Taylor counties don't look all that impressive. I have to wonder why they pulled the trigger and issued a TOR on them. I just don't see any velocity couplets on my Level3 data (yeah, I know..need to upgrade lol).

0040z: Storms have cycled down abit, but appearing to strengthen again. The most intense cell is in Bandera county NW of San Antonio. Strong rotation still indicated at all tilts with pronounced weak echo region at REF tilt2 and strong overhang echo at tilt3. I'm pretty certain a tornado has been associated with that one..nobody has reported it yet.

The earlier tornado-warned storm near Abilene weakend, but showing signs of life again in western Shackleford County. Some weak rotation and slight hookish reflectivity pattern.

Of particular note, the cell in Runnels/Coleman county has split. The right split is showing some hooking and weakly organized rotation. David Drummond is intercepting it from the east. oops! Tornado warning on it now!!

0018z: 2 miles NE of Commerce: TREES DOWN ON HWY. 24 NORTHEAST OF COMMERCE. POSSIBLE TORNADIC DAMAGE.

0017Z: 1 mile W of Abilene. SIX POWER POLES WERE REPORTED DOWN AT REBECCA LANE AND 277 ON THE WEST SIDE OF ABILENE. THE POLES WERE BLOWN OVER FROM WEST TO EAST.

0015Z: Spotters observing a developing tornado 16 miles NE of Commerce.

0011Z: Tornado warnings starting to roll in now. The one earlier NE of Dallas around Hunt county produced two reported funnel clouds including one over Commerce. Earlier today when the first tornadic cell developed around Sweetwater, it did in fact produce a tornado. 2:15pm, 4W Maryneal in Nolan County.

While sitting here in foggy, cloudy, cold Amarillo, it's excrutiating to see the warm sector just a few hours drive away primed for a sever weather event. Already, one storm erupted new Sweetwater and went TOR before dissipating along woth other storms that exploded earlier. It's odd to have something like that happen, but I've seen significant events start off like this. The earlier stuff was just a teaser of what lies ahead the next several hours.

I thought last night and even this morning that the best area would be between Junction and Stephenville and leaned towards the Junction area. However, it is apparent the upper system has stalled. The dryline/front is still well west of I-35 and hasn't even reached Vernon/San Angelo line yet. This as of 3:45pm. The models missed that as well as the extensive precip shield north of I-20.

Instead, skies have cleared and the cap increased. This is allowing the boundary layer to really cook and destabilize as the favored jet dynamics are now crossing the border. However, skies over the dryline/front a clouding over (a possible reason it hasn't moved this afternoon owing to reduced mixing). This appears to me to be a factor in delaying the convective initiation until after dark except for areas north of I-20 where better insolation exists. And in fact, a new cell is erupting just SE of Guthrie. (yeah, I know Jay...Throckmorton County...lol)

Additionally, dewpoint depressions are exceeding 20F along the convergence zone which will work against a tornado threat as cold pool generation will be a problem and undercutting updrafts. I've seen this before where storms erupt in a linear fashion and quickly generate a nice outflow boundary ahead of themselves.

So, the more serious tornado threat, to me at least, appears to be shaping up after dark as storms move further east into better, deeper moisture along with the best jet dynamics including LLJ come into play along with strong helicities. It all just seems a little out of phase to me for this afternoon....the front/dryline is a bit too far west.

Nevertheless, before morning, I'm thinking Texas will be in the headlines. The major cities along the I-35 corridor should really be on alert.

Okay...back to work here in miserabblly cold Amarillo. Is it April yet? LOL

Texas Fires & The Devil Went Down to Georgia

Yesterday was a wild weather day for some folks. Here in my neck of the woods, wildfires were a problem. There were three big ones to note with one in particular near Benjamin, TX that was intense. The convective plume was so intense, it was creating serious pyrocumulus clearly visible on satellite. I apologize for not saving an image of that, but perhaps the NWS will post something and I'll link it here later. My parents were on a trip back from North Texas and they said it actually looked like a storm until they got close to it. They reported that an army of firefighters and at least one tanker plane were fighting it.

In any event, I saved an interesting radar image that detected the plumes of smoke from the fires. Note the smaller fires and the direction of the smoke plumes behind the front.


Then as I was channel surfing last night, I passed The Weather Channel (really the Home & Garden Channel) and saw a radar image of two big bruiser cells in Georgia. I stopped there and jumped on the computer and fired up GR3. I watched as the tornadic storm and strong rotation passed over downtown Atlanta. And sho'nuff, a tornado smacked the downtown area. I won't regurgitate news links here, but feel free to use that nifty Google search tool for Atlanta area TV stations and newspapers.

I found it particularly amusing that CNN got hit. The amusing part really was how they reacted to it. It certainly proves once again that alot of news media people are bumbling idiots outside of a controlled production environment. One reporter for them just outside their damaged facility was the poster child for such idiocy. The woman at the anchor desk was a strong contender. I have to wonder if broadcasting or "journalism" schools these people attended endeavor to erase any and all abilities of common sense and the ability to mentally process (and retain!) information. Ugh. Enough ranting on that.

I also have to rant about the Georgia Dome where a big NCAA B-ball game was ongoing. They pretty much took a direct hit, but the structure was able to withstand it....barely. I don't have attendence figures, but the dome is capable of holding 70,000 people. I'll be conservative and go with 30,000 people. Despite at least 10-15 minutes lead time from the NWS issuing a tornado warning for this storm and projected path towards the facility, nobody bothered to interrupt the game. Play didn't stop until the tornado was already assaulting the arena and trying to rip the top off. The rafters and suspended equipment swayed dangerously above the players and fans.

In short, it was ALREADY too late to take shelter. Had this been a stronger tornado, we could easily have seen hundreds (maybe thousands) of fatalities and many more serious injuries here alone. Many people inside there would have been sucked out and slung across Atlanta....not a pretty thought. It would have been a disaster rivaling that of Katrina. Medical and emergency services would have been severely overwhelmed and grossly inadequate.

Afterwards, there would be a big federal investigation and finger pointing in the following months with the conclusion that the disaster could have been significantly mitigated if they would have had a "tornado action plan" in place and activated. Laws would then be passed making such plans mandatory for major arenas (just like fire safety codes) around the country. Yes, as usual, it takes a major disaster to truly effect change. So why not do that now BEFORE a disaster strikes? Maybe this close call will wake some people up...but I'm not holding my breath.

And lastly, I want to slap the hell out of the TV commentator at the game that said "I've been told that in situations like this, a dome stadium is the best place to be". WTF? Who told him that? Where did he conjure up that idea?

Here's a little lesson from "Safety Bear®": Domed stadiums (or ANY large span roofed buildings) are not safe from ANYTHING other than rain. Tornadoes, earthquakes and hurricanes are not to be confused with a rainshower. Here's a gold star for you.

Again, why are so many media people complete idiotic, mindless, clueless, and witless morons living in a world totally devoid of common sense? How is it that despite a relentless education campaign about severe weather safety, they fail to miss it all and instead come up with something like that? "Uh, I've been told that when a ship is sinking, it is best to remain on the ship." Totally amazing. Never underestimate the power of stupidity. Maybe we need to spin the NWS flooding safety slogan and create a new one: "Use your head. Don't be dead". I'm trademarking that by the way for anybody out there wanting to rip it off like my Holiday Inn Express slogan. ;-)


By the way, a big congrats to Team Tim Reed for being nominated for the 2007 YouTube Awards for best eyewitness video. (That should certainly get a couple of mustache twitches within the CFDG compound, eh?) They face some serious competition, but in all unbiased fairness I think they should win. The "Battle At Kruger" is a strong contender and one incredible video which I'd vote as second place. Third place goes for the "Don't Taz Me Bro" video as I simply love to see foaming-at-the-mouth shrieking and hysterical liberals get zapped. LOL!!!

Upcoming Storm System & Music Blurb

The next week is going to prove quite an active one for the eastern half of the US. Expect severeal headlines with this one with everything in the meteorological cookbook being served up.
The models are now in better agreement with the track and intensity of the system, although still waiting for it to get closer to the radiosondes for better model ingestion. One of the things to note is the expected 100kt 500mb jet streak associated with it over the southern plains (mainly Texas) and even northern Mexico. This is pretty much a solid forecast from all models for several days now.

I honestly have a hard time recalling the last time such a powerful system affected this southern latitude around mid March. I wonder if this is the vanguard of what is to follow in it's wake over the next few months? With a significantly colder and snowier winter this past year than we've seen in a couple of decades or more, I would expect that we won't have a normal spring.

Based on the models at this point, I don't see any potential to chase this system. Storm motions will be at least 50mph and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scooting along at 70mph. Seriously. Plus, with such a strong system and incredible broadscale UVVs, the main mode for most of the event will be a big squall line bulldozing it's way across the south. Expect to see at least a couple of widespread wind events. As it moves further east by Tuesday/Wednesday into the Mississippi Valley region, I certainly think isolated tornadic supercells could erupt ahead of the squall line somewhere. It could be another big outbreak taking shape. Stay tuned for that one.

For Sunday, the system and best dynamics remain west of Texas as we will be on the strong anticyclonic side of the upper jets. However, overnight through Monday morning, strong storms should erupt along the front/dryline as it surges into Texas and jet dynamics move into play. Late Monday afternoon, a significant severe weather event should be erupting roughly along the I-35 corridor in Texas (likely south of I-20) and spreading eastward.....mainly a big honking squall line. All of Texas should at least get some decent rains out of this...particularly parched West Texas and Panhandles.

With the system expected to close off and crawl through Texas, heavy rains and storms should persist into Tuesday with a remote chance of a cold core event then somewhere in NW TX into Oklahoma based on the current GFS. It is going to be quite interesting to watch the evolution of this system. It should become more clear by Saturday with regards to model solutions, but with a large part of the upper level storm system over the data void area of Mexico, this one could really cause some serious forecasting busts and headaches before it is over with. I've seen these monster system before do just that...although it has been quite a while since I've seen one like this. :-)

After this system spreads havoc through the US, indications are that we will have to deal with yet another east coast trough pattern with a west coast ridge. Ugh. It seems like we have been stuck in that pattern forever. However, after watching the ensemble spaghetti plots for the past few days along with the operational GFS, there looms some hope in the crystal ball that a much more favorable upper pattern establishes itself towards the end of the month. I'm certainly ready for it. LOL.

More updates to come. Stay tuned.

As an off-topic blurb concerning music, I've been thoroughly enjoying the latest album from The Mars Volta called "The Bedlam In Goliath". I've been a huge fan since I discovered them last year. This CD certainly doesn't disappoint and carries through with their same style, creativity, talent and intensity that got me hooked on them. A new drummer, Thomas Pridgen is on this CD which concerned me since Jon Theodore totally blew me away on all of the band's previous albums. I didn't think he could be replaced. However, Thomas has done an excellent job filling the role with his own unique style but remaining true to the band's musical persona. I like it alot. I've since been happily trying to emulate Thomas' on my TD-20 kit. :-)

I'm also going to go see Rush in Oklahoma City next month on the 26th. It was the only Saturday date close enough to see them. I was pissed that I had to cancel the Red Rocks Ampitheater performance last year. I have yet to see my favorite band live, and I'll be damned if I'm going to miss them again. Come hell, high water, red boxes, high risk outlooks, or the CFDG stormchaser police squad. LOL! I'll also have to hit up my homies in the OKC vicinity for a few drinks and perhaps take advantage of the Miller Suites. ;-)

Spring Thaw & Pics Of The Week

Today was a very pleasant day across the Panhandle. Clear skies and light winds with mid temperatures are a nice change from last week's winter onslaught. The trees are budding out now with a few ornamental pear trees showing some white blossoms. Other trees are starting to show some early signs of renewal as well. All of this is not good for my flaring SDS symptoms. :-)

So, naturally, I'm beginning my daily ritual of perusing model data looking for signs of convective activity. It is looking pretty likely that the action cranks up late this weekend and the first part of next week. As is typical this time of year, it looks like a classic "I-35" setup due to moisture and a strong, progressive upper level system. Folks in the eastern half of OK and alot of the eastern half of Texas could be in for quite a show. For the panhandles and West Texas, it looks like a pretty volatile setup Sunday regarding wind shear profiles and surface features, but a tyipcal meager moisture setup with dewpoints in the 40's. I'll keep monitoring it for sure, but this is very typical for March, so I'm not holding out much hope. However, even some thunder and lightning would be nice. :-)

Since it appears to be a dull week ahead (unless you follow the daily soap opera episodes on ST and wx-chase), I thought I'd post my "pics of the week". ;-) These are from the archives of my awesome June 12, 2004 chase...the "Mulvane" event. These pics were taken with my crappy 2mp camera. What I would have given to have had my digital SLR.

This is the "Mulvane" tornado as it first appeared. It's amazing to watch the transformation both in appearence and color contrast.


A few minutes later...


The classic Mulvane white tornado as it approaches a homestead.


Seconds later as it bears down on the homestead.


In the process of tearing apart the homestead.


Rope out.


In one of the most bizarre events of this supercell, a tornado is spawned on the WEST side of the supercell and the main hook. On radar, this was a secondary hook on the backside under another big updraft separate from the main one to the southeast. This tornado moved from east to west...opposite of the bigger tornado earlier....AND with the parent supercell moving slowly east.

Satellite Views - N TX Snowstorm

Some pretty interesting satellite images I grabbed this morning. Just a note, all of the other white stuff not marked are clouds. How do I know? I ran a loop and the snow didn't move. :-) (a frequently asked question) Interesting to note the lakes. I would have loved to have been able to do some photography around Ray Roberts Lake where it appears the heaviest band stretched across.




And of course, an excellent graphic from the NWS Fort Worth:

Lone Star Weather Cornucopia

2330Z UPDATE: 6-8 inches of snow reported across Tarrant and Denton counties. Reports of some tree limbs in denton breaking because of the snow's weight. The NWS Fort Worth issued a statement below...keep in mind the official measuring site is the airport which only recorded 2 inches of snowfall. Using the 6-9 inches reported just north and west of the airport, this is indeed a historic snowfall event and had the official observation site been a little further west and north, it would have set an all-time record 24 hour snowfall in March as well as the all-time amount for the month:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...MARCH SNOWFALL IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE...HISTORICALLY...WINTER WEATHER OCCURS IN MARCH ABOUT 2 OUT OF EVERY 5 YEARS. AT THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH...THERE HAS BEEN WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN 46 MARCH MONTHS SINCE 1899. WITH THE SNOWFALL TODAY...THERE HAVE NOW BEEN 82 CALENDAR DAYS IN MARCH WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGHEST 24-HOUR SNOW TOTALS FOR DALLAS/FORTWORTH IN THE MONTH OF MARCH.
6.0 MAR 13, 1924
4.5 MAR 1, 1942
3.9 MAR 7, 1947
2.5 MAR 17-18, 1934
2.2 MAR 14, 1962 & MAR 9, 1915

MARCH 1942 HAD BEEN THE ONLY MARCH WITH TWO DIFFERENT CALENDAR DAYSWITH AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW. MARCH 2008 JOINS THE CLUB...WITH SNOW ON MARCH 3 AND MARCH 6.

TOP 10 MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR MARCH
1) 6.1 1942
2) 6.0 1924
3) 3.9 1947
4) 2.6 1934
5) 2.2 1962 .... 2.2 1915
7) 2.0 2008 (THROUGH 4 PM TODAY) ..... 2.0 1937
9) 1.7 1954
10) 1.6 1971

OTHER STATS FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH...
MOST DAYS IN MARCH WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL - 3 (1989 AND 1934)
MOST DAYS IN MARCH WITH ANY SNOWFALL - 4 (1970 AND 1942)
MOST RECENT MARCH WITH SNOWFALL - 2002 (0.3 INCHES ON MARCH 2)
LATEST IN SEASON WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH - MARCH 29, 1937 (2.0 INCHES)
LATEST IN SEASON WITH MEASURABLE SNOW - MARCH 30, 1926 (0.1 INCHES)
LATEST IN SEASON WITH ANY SNOW - APRIL 14, 1928 (TRACE)

2100Z UPDATE: Latest storm reports indicate 3-5 inches of snow across North Texas with one report just SE of Gainesville of 9 inches where the heaviest band occurred on radar. Yowsa!

A pretty incredible event is ongoing across the Lone Star State this afternoon. Here it is March 6th, and a winter storm is raging across the norhtern half of Texas. We got about 2-3 inches of snow here in Amarillo overnigh and this morning. However, the North Central Texas area is getting hammered badly. It's rare enough to get heavy snows in that area, but being the first week of March makes it even more unusual. I'll check the record books on that to see just how unusual, but it is very rare indeed.

Right now, very intense snow is falling all across North Texas including thundersnow. Radar looks very impressive.

Almost all of the red is snow with sleet mixed in. I can't recall in recent memory seeing such a radar presentation of snow. Here is the latest winter storm warning from the NWS:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY. THE
SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SNOW WILL THEN
SPREAD EAST INTO THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS THIS EVENING. SNOW TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN AN AREA RUNNING FROM EASTLAND COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE METROPLEX AND ON INTO THE SULPHUR SPRINGS AREA. NEAR THE RED
RIVER UP TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

And here is the latest short term discussion:

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AT TIMES ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSNOW...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 3 PM ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE...WEATHERFORD
...DENTON...TO SHERMAN LINE. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1/4-MILE AT TIMES.

Oh, and by the way, not too far south along the Texas coast, about a 4-5 hour drive, a tornado watch is in effect.





ONLY IN TEXAS!!! :-)

Weather Weeniness

Part of the rites of spring and pre-chase season are attending SKYWARN functions and other severe weather festivities. The first one I attended was in Amarillo. The presentation by the NWS WCM Steve Drillete was pretty good and very informative. Here, they use a spotter id system for calling in reports. So, I am all officialized now. I'll try to work with Steve and the NWS here to provide video and pics for next year's SKYWARN presentation since he strives to keep it fresh. I also sat in on the Amarillo Emergency Services meeting concerning their spotter group. However, they require you to be a deployed spotter and not a chaser. It's unfortunate that I had to pass since they are really needing more members.

Pictured below is the "West Texas Dynamic Duo" (Kanani and Jay) who attended with me. ;-)



Then, this past Saturday, I attended a severe weather fair in Lubbock. This was a pretty much the uber SDS therapy. David and Graham along with the Texas Tech folks had their vehicles outside for public inquiry. Inside was filled with various exhibits including science gadgets related to weather phenomena. It was staffed by Texas Tech students who did a great job explaoning various meteorological principles. My favorite was the static electricity generator. You'd hand crank this sucker up and depending on how far away the electrodes were from each other, would generate a loud spark. Poor David, the human lightning rod, had a "flashback" when it went off. He jumped like he had been hit. LOL!!

Below is the Texas Tech display of their various deployable probes. Their purpose is to measure conditions in and around storms, hurricanes, and perhaps even drylines. Each probe comes with a GPS unit and an electronic compass as well as a "black box" recording device. They simply deploy, turn it on, and go. No need to worry about anything else. Then when retrieved, the data is downloaded for analysis.






Here, electrical physics are demonstrated. The little tin pie plates stacked together floated away when he released them. The hand-cranked spark generator that freaked out David is just behind that.


This pic pretty much speaks for itself. Most of the other kids were only mildy interested. I think we are looking at a budding meteorologist and stormchaser. What was cool is that for a moment, I felt like I was looking at myself about 30 years earlier. ;-)




What would a severe weather awareness event be without making your hair stand on end?


The vehicles parked in front of the Science Spectrum in Lubbock which is a cool place all unto itself complete with an Omni theater. In fact, the weather service office is part of the building on the opposite side.


I also got to attend the formal SKYWARN Spotter Traning class to see their presentation. My folks also attended...their first ever. :-) I got to see some of my video and pics used as part of the training material which originated from Gary Woodall at the Fort Worth NWS. The WCM at Lubbock, Jody James, presented to the class. It was small, so I was able to introduce myself and chat with him and a couple of the other mets there at the office. I look forward to providing them with pics and video in the future as well as calling in live reports.

Interestingly, I discovered the great depth of stupidity concerning the Lubbock City Council and Mayor. Somehow, according to the information at the fair, they got it stuck in their thick skulls that they need 150 , yes ONE HUNDRED FIFTY tornado sirens for the city. And of course, the city can't afford it. By comparison, the City of Dallas only uses 94 sirens. That city sprawls about 385 square miles with lots of buildings, trees, creeks, rivers and hills making it more difficult to carry sound. Lubbock is 115 square miles (30% the size of Dallas) with little impedence to sound waves. A typical siren is good for about 3 square miles. So 115/3 = 39 sirens (rounded off). Heck, even 2 square miles results in less than 60 sirens. The cheapie sirens cover 1 square mile. That is still only 115 sirens needed.

I really would like to know where in the hell they got their information from? I discovered the above in about 8 minutes on the internet. Why do I think that they spent hundreds of thousands of dollars for a "study" by some nitwitted "consultant" firm? In any event, I and just about everybody else there signed the petition to get them to install sirens. Thankfully, the idiots in charge of the city put together a "task force". What that really means is that they want to keep stalling for time while keeping the peasants at bay. Just like most corporations, common sense has no place in such establishments. It is bureaucracy at it's finest.

David was gracious enough to introduce me to the mets for Channel 11 who he chases for. It was great to chat with John Robinson and Cary Allen as well as the marketing manager Josh. In fact, David gave me the grand tour of the studios and we watched a live newscast. Cary was working the weekend weather desk, and it was cool to see some of the toys they get to play with. In fact, for a brief second, I accidentally ended up in the wide angle shot at the start of the weather cast while persuing the internet for data the next day. DOH!!! He, David and I enjoyed a great dinner afterwards before calling it a day. I had a blast!!!! Thanks David!!

The pic below is the result of the mini-blizzard Sunday night and early Monday morning. 2-3 inches of snow with 35-45mph winds with at least one recorded gust of 69mph. The snow was wet and objects that were somewhat sheltered from the wind got coated. The incredible thing is that just about 18 hours earlier, it was in the 70's with people in t-shirts. I love living here!!! :-)

TWC, GW, Blizzard

I read in interesting blurb from the original founder of The Weather Channel, John Coleman. I find it interesting that he agrees with most of us weather enthusiests that the channel has deteriorated to a point that it isn't even a shadow of it's former self. He said it was quite sad, and I really agree with him. However, from what I've read, TWC continues to increase revenue and earnings corresponding with ratings. So, they are doing something right. But I'm puzzled as to why it is up for sale?

Mr. Coleman also presents an idea of suing Al Gore over the global warming scare. I like that idea myself. However, I doubt it would get very far. It would be much better if somebody in the mainstream media actually did some serious investigative reporting with as much fervor as going after Republicans and conservatives.

In any event, I found a website that I really liked! I thought it seemed like something I would do. :-) http://churchofglobalwarming.com/ Enjoy!

I've recently read a few posts out there on some forums where some global warming alarmists, or church members as in the website link above, are questioning those who are questioning the motives of the global warming alarmists. Are you serious? LOL!! I wanted to help get them started on a little reality check. Today's lesson, boys and girls, are "Carbon Credits". Yep, you can actually buy these carbon credits which in turn go towards creating more eco friendly energy projects like solar and wind power technologies. Read all about it HERE....and while you are at it, buy some carbon credits!! You'll get a nifty decal and bumper sticker for your chase vechicle! ROFL!!

I laugh, but corporations are already doing it. It's now the "cool" thing to do. Liberals love hip, trendy stuff like that and are forking over some money to be a part of it. And of course, those handling all of that money and "dissiminating" it as the sales brochure promises are perfectly honest and to be blindly trusted 100%. ;-) I've had shady used car dealers do a better job trying to scam me.

So, there is that first lesson for those that are clueless about who could possibly profit from the global warming scare. For the second lesson, I'll give you a hint to get you started: Al Gore.

Lastly, we had a bonafied blizzard here in the panhandle overnight. Sustained winds 35-45mph with one gust of 69mph recorded at a TV station here in Amarillo along with heavy snows made this warm-blooded Texas native feel like the north pole shifted southward to I-40. We got about 2-3 inches of snow here with drifts to about a foot in places. It was a wet snow too, trees and srubs on the north side of buildings and houses were flocked with several inches of the white stuff. It was pretty cool. 12 hours earlier, it was in the mid 70's and t-shirts and shorts were the clothing choice of the day. I love it here! :-)

Chase Day!!!

The End: After blowing my target area too far west and southwest....a long drive just to get to storms from Lubbock....a hydroplaning incident....storms getting ahead of me into central parts of Oklahoma (with tons of people clogging the roads of course there)......and storms at the time high based and mushy looking....and some important business I have in Amarillo in the morning.......I gave up and headed back home. Of course, as soon as I did, the storms started going nuts. LOL!! So, to those that caught tornadoes today, you are welcome. ;-) The season has just started, so I'll have plenty of other opportunities. The winds here are howling 30-40 sustained with higher gusts. Snow will be moving in here in a few hours as a major winter storm gets cranked up. Blizzard warnings are being considered here. Fun stuff!!!

1730Z: Targeting Childress now based on current obs, SPC mesoanalysis and the RUC forecast. Big question is when stuff will pop. Lead impulse has really kicked out faster than I anticipated. Subsidence behind it looks meager with ascent noted on WV not too far away. My gut instinct is that by 2pm, something should fire.

1400Z: Looking things over this morning, it is hard to argue with models and SPC and local forecasts. I look for things to fire on the edge of the caprock and move into NW TX and SW OK.

With the lead vortmax already to the Davis Mountains and moving into SE NM, see now reason why resulting subsidence behind it won't cause the dryline to surge east as forecast. The problem however is that the vortmax is expected to quickly weaken by 00Z. With the big system digging out west causing pressure falls behind the dryline, how far east it will get is a big question mark. Plus, it could "crawfish" westward abit by around 00Z.

Regardless, vortmax energy looks impressive through early to late afternoon. Coupled with the dryline and favorable vertical wind profiles, I expect at least a couple of isolated cells to fire with a good chance of being tornadic. I'd expect the favored area to be between Dickens and Childress with initiation as early as 18z a little further west...wherever the dryline mixes to. Early visible satellite indicates stratus deck is thin with a few clear spots over the target area. Insolation will not be a problem.

Hanging out in Lubbock this morning and perusing data until it is time to head out in a few hours. On a side note, I had a GREAT time yesterday at the severe weather education event yesterday. It was quite the SDS session. :-) I got to meet the mets at Channel 11 thanks to David who also gave me a tour of the studios where I accidentally was on air for a brief second. I've now got 29 seconds of fame left in my life. LOL!! I also got to meet and greet with the NWS folks as well as some Texas Tech grad students. I'll write more later about this cool event.