Great Forecast Discussion

Real quick as I get a small break in the holiday festivities, I had to post this nice discussion from the NWS Amarillo today. Maybe it would be a good idea sometime to try and visit the NWS offices personally on Christmas Day and drop off some goodies or something else to show our appreciation for their working on a day that most of us are fortunate to have off and spend with our loved ones. (And, Shiloh, I'll write back in a couple of days).

ISSUED 350 PM CST MON DEC 24 2007/ DISCUSSION...
IT IS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND ONCE AGAIN THIS YEAR
THE NWS IS FORECASTING ON THE METEOROLOGICAL FRONTIER.

THE MODELS ARE IN DISCORD WITH THIS TROF ON THE WAY...
AND WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF SNOW IS IN PLAY.

THE NAM IS IN A HURRY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS SLOW.
WHICH ONE TO BELIEVE AND DO I CONTINUE WITH SNOW?

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SURFACE WINDS WON/T HELP BECAUSE THERE ISN/T ANY BACKING.

WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND NO HOPES FOR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO FALL FROM ALOFT TO DOWN BELOW.

WITH SO MANY DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL TO MODEL,
I FOLLOWED THE GFS SO I WON/T HAVE TO TWADDLE.

THE SLOWER PROGRESSION REQUIRED SOME CHANGES...
I ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AND EXPANDED DIURNAL RANGES.

WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST
DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING THAT THE GFS MIGHT SUGGEST.

POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPPED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
30S NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AS THE GRIDS WILL DISPLAY.

WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM AND THE DYNAMICS GOING NORTH...
ONE INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IN THE GRIDS WILL GO FORTH.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL.
THE AVERAGE OF GUIDANCE SEEMS LIKELY TO RULE.

SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST...
THE TIMING OF THE TROF WILL DETERMINE WHEN THEY CEASE.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT WITH JUST A BIT OF CRITIQUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
AND PRECIP CHANCES DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.

FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE FORECAST THINGS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE
BESIDES...THE STORM FOR LATE CHRISTMAS LEFT A PRETTY FULL PLATE.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SOME OF THE FIELDS...
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE MIGHT YIELD.

TO THOSE WHO MIGHT COMPLAIN THAT THIS DISCUSSION IS IN RHYME...
MY APOLOGIES TO Y/ALL...I AM HAVING A GOOD TIME.

FOR WE AT THE NWS HAVE TO WORK ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND I TRY TO HAVE FUN WHEN I CANNOT GO OUT AND PLAY.

REGARDLESS OF THAT...WE WILL BE SITTING RIGHT HERE
KEEPING OUR EYE ON THE WEATHER...BE IT CALM OR SEVERE.

TO CLOSE OUT THIS DISCUSSION...AND I KNOW I AM RIGHT...
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM NWS AMARILLO AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT!

-JORDAN

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! (and my CFDG rant)

Sorry for the lack of blog activity, but I've been pretty tied up with getting my new venture underway. Plus, I've enjoyed chill-out vacation mode since I left my other job back on the 11th. After spending the rest of this month getting my folks relocated and settled, I'll be ready to hit the ground running with my business after New Years. I'm looking forward to it! I've got to shout out to my twin namesake Steve Miller OK for some good business advice. He's on my board of directors now. ;-)

I really enjoy this time of year as it is at least a temporary break from the insanity we endure the rest of the year....unless you fight the hoardes at the mall. It also helps to sooth the off-season SDS symptoms too. However, after January 1st, the symptoms flare up and chasers start getting real nasty. This leads me to my rant-of-the week. ;-)

On the chasing front, the "stormchasing community" is all abuzz with the new show coming out next week. It features the "Outlaw Chasers" Randy Hicks and Lanny Dean in a show called "Tornado Hunters". It premiers Tuesday night on CourtTV at 9PM Central time. I'm looking forward to it and expect it will be pretty good. I also like it because the Outlaws ruffle the feathers of many in the "stormchasing community" and in particular the CFDG stormchaser police. I just want one of the Outlaws' t-shirts or hat. :-)


Brilliantly created by Bill Doms. Get the T-shirt HERE
They have been the target of some of the most brutal abuse from the aforementioned groups than anybody has experienced. They rank right up there with Warren Faidley, Jeff Piotrowski, and Reed Timmer in being blacklisted and victims of outrageous vendettas. At one time, I was a sheep and believed what was being espoused by some of the "veterens" until I heard the other side of the story along with my own experience and observations over the years.

Most, if not nearly all, of this comes from the CFDGers themselves who, in an open letter, tried to convince the peasants that their intentions are peaceful and that they don't engage in such smear efforts. ROFLAMO! Some of us non-sheep that have been around awhile know better. I've always been confused as to why some chasers (CFDG members) were "allowed" to star in TV commercials, chase documentraies, sell video/pictures, chase for TV stations, participate in or operate chase tour companies....but other chasers (non-CFDG) were not. I dunno...it's just me I guess.

In fact, Chuck Doswell himself wrote an open letter that basically told everybody who didn't praise him to stick it up their wazoo. I'd like to send on "open letter" to CFDG via a third party and exclaim passionately that I never intend to join their group. :-) The hypocrisy was pretty thick in both "open letters" which is no surprise given the double standards and hypocrisy we've seen from them in the past. I had written a nice, long detailed blog entry detailing that along with some of the behind-the-scenes antics of the CFDGers over the years against any chaser who steps out of line.

But really, in the end, I don't give a crap. My time and effort is better spent elsewhere like cleaning my shower. However, if the rumor is true that certain CFDG members are pushing for legislation in Oklahoma that restrict or legislate stormchasing/storm spotting activities (and of course getting CFDG members special permissions or passes to do so), then you'll hear alot more from me about this. Come to think of it, that's also pretty funny because they base their "fear" on chaser yahooism birthing such legislation.

One thing is certain, now that "the list" of CFDG members was revealed, we'll be checking that list....checking it twice....gonna see who's been naughty or nice. LOL!

Other than that, looking for a few shots at some wintery precip here in the Panhandles over the next week. There's still some uncertainly on the mid-week system though. Keep your eyes on that one. I will be because I'll be on the road at that time.

My best wishes to all of my friends out there and hope all have Merry Christmas!! I hope you find your favorite chase-gadgets under the tree. :-)

Major Texas Panhandle Snowstorm?????

Latest models runs, as of 00Z Thursday, continue their trend of a colder arctic airmass invading my neck of the woods early Sunday without releasing it's grip until Thursday. At the same time, a potent upper level storm system takes shape over the SW CONUS. It's a classic setup for serious snowfall in these parts. As usual, there is some model discrepency in the details, but they all agree on significant amounts of the white stuff. Some models are indicating a foot or more of snow. Yowsa!!

Needless to say, I'm pretty excited about it. This is one of the reasons I moved up here! :-) I'll be hitting the grocery store on Friday and stock up on goodies. Stay tuned for this one, folks. I'll be watching it unfold as the event draws near and we get a better idea of the strength of the upper low system, it's trajectory, speed, and the amount of moisture it will tap into. The arctic air forecast looks like a pretty sure bet.

On a side note, but a pretty important one at that, I'll be leaving the company I work for as of next Tuesday. I'll take a little time off to chill out and clear my head. Then, I'll embark down the path of self-employment. I'll write more about this later. I've also got some pics I've taken over the past month or so that I might post later too....after this upcoming snowstorm.