Horsehoe Vortex!

I decided to mosey up to Dalhart yesterday in anticipation of possible Raton Mesa convection firing up and rolling into the NW TX PH under 3000+ CAPE and strong veering profiles. That didn't pan out however as the increasing heights and lack of surface focus kept everything up against the mountains and just marginally severe.

But, on the way up there just north of Channing, I got to see my first real good horseshoe vortex! I've seen small, weaker ones before and small shear funnels as updrafts would shear off from the updraft. However, I've never seen one as in the pics below. They are in fact a fairly rare phenomena considering I always have my head in the clouds and have never seen one like this. ;-)

What causes them? I'm not entirely sure. It does remind me alot of Al Moller's reknowned "garden hose" vorticity demonstration whenever he makes a public presentation on tornadogenesis theories.








I also discovered quite a few sunflower farms too up around the Dalhart area. I had no idea they were grown in this region. It isn't the preferred shot though as they were all facing away from the sun. Still, kind of interesting.

Chase Report - August 28 - TX PH

Did I ever mention how much I love living up here now? ;-) With a nice outflow boundary and a small, distinct surface low, and some upper air support, shear and instability, I had a nice little chase yesterday!

Throughout the day, I watched a surface low traversed the I-40 corridor from around Tucumcari to around Pampa. This helped to reinforce an outflow boundary from around Dimmit to Borger. With the approach of the upper trough and disturbance along with overall shear of 30-40 knots and decent instability, I was eager to head out the door after work..especially as I saw some amazing, rock solid explosive updrafts from my office window to the south...which went severe quickly.

I headed east and dropped down to Claude where I saw a left-split updraft coming towards me. It produced a very nice updraft base which was a nice sight to behold. I kept watching storms to my NE as they continued to look mushy, but I knew were in a better environment and close to the little surface low. Sure enough, they started exploding too.

I lazily headed up towards White Deer watching radar along the way. I started eyeing the cells north of Miami which soon developed a nice hook and strong velicity couplet. I plotted an intercept course. As I headed up 61, the updraft from the Miami storm was awesome! Soon a TOR was issued on it and I was elated. But, as I headed towards it, another even more incredible updraft was erupting in NE Hutchinson county. This baby was one of the most jaw-dropping and incredible updrafts I have seen. I'm kicking myself for not stopping and grabbing a picture of it. The entire updraft structure was rock solid and crisp with curling/backshearing segments that were impressive. The updraft velocities had to be like 200mph on this sucker.

The Miami cell's updraft soon waned by comparison. ;-) I moved north of Pampa on 70 to set up for the show. As it moved slowly towards me, a big wall cloud rapidly developed with some noted vertical motions and weak, broad rotation. This cell was latching onto the outflow boundary from the Miami storm clearly indicated by a small line of stratus clouds. I called Jay McCoy at this point and said I thought it was a good candidate to drop a tornado. He passed it along to the TV station.

However, the Stevoid reigned supreme and the storm quickly transitioned into an outflow dominant beast. As it did so, the outflow ripped into the wall cloud and sheared it off from the storm's base. The result was a nice little shear funnel. I moved back into Pampa as the storm picked up speed and produced ping pong sized hail just north of Pampa. That was pretty much it for the day as it began to weaken and gust out with loss of daytime heating. I enjoyed a nice crawler show on the way home courtesy of the big storm cluster towards Tulia/Happy.

Speacial thanks to Jay McCoy for a couple of nice updates and passing along my reports in the field.

I'm monitoring data this morning and trying to determine a target area. It is a bit messy and now not looking as great as yesterday. But, some things could still come together and provide another good chase opportunity. By lunchtime, things should start to become more apparent. Here at 9:00am, I'm thinking Hereford as a setup point, but also beginning to think perhaps SW of Amarillo too towards Hereford/Dimmit. I need more cowbell!! :-)

Ok...some pics!! Here is the updrafts I was watching to my NE near White Deer/Pampa.


The left-split updraft near Claude.


The same updraft before the Stevoid smacked it down.


Nice wall cloud NNW of Pampa.


This little appendage suddenly appeared. What the heck is it? I dunno. I couldn't make out any rotation and it was kind of ragged looking.


The little shear funnel.


A closeup.


The last gasp of the storm trying to get a wall cloud going again. The outflow was winning the battle.

Some Tailchasing?

The models, and in particular the NAM, are suggesting a couple of days in a row for some decent chasing here in the Panhandle region.

The upper level winds pick up abit as a trough swings through the central plains with the PH on the very southern fringe. At the same time, a frontal boundary sags down into the area providing the surface focus and additional lift.

We should have enough moisture and instability for some fun. Throw in some possible outflow boundaries, and I feel the urge to start performing the Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment. :-)

The parameters actually look a bit better on Saturday as mid and upper level winds are parallel to a stationary frontal boundary draped WNW to ESE across the area. Advertised SREH values are reaching 300. BOOYAH!

This is ideal for any storm that can root on that boundary and traverse it as a more isolated cell. It does have the makings for a pretty intense MCS and possible derecho event too...particularly as the convection increases through the late afternoon and evening. But, nonetheless, I've got my eyes on Saturday. I'd love to go see a real nice, purty, fancy supercell. I got a SDS-induced hankerin' fer some supercells that just won't stop. ;-)

I'll continue to watch this possible scenario unfold and hope for a warm-up event on Friday. I'll dust off the chase gear and get ready to do the supercell stomp....tornado tango....funnel foxtrot....beavertail bop....monster meso mash...hailstone hussle....downdraft disco....wallcloud waltz....shelfcloud shuffle......... ;-)

Wild, crazy weather!

Man, alot to blog about!

First off, Dean as of this evening is now a Category 5 'cane with 160mph sustained winds!! Yowza! That'll clean off the cobwebs from the boathouse for sure. ;-) All people along the middle and lower Yucatan Peninsula are bracing for a direct hit. I can only hope that everybody has been moved safely inland and into very sturdy shelter. Dean is moving at a good clip and should remain above CAT 2 status for awhile after coming ashore. Massive storms like this don't wind down on a dime. Unfortunately, I fear that we will hear of far too many deaths from Mexico as Dean rampages westward.

For Texas, we have been spared the bigger second punch from Dean that was feared late last week. Erin was bad enough with lots of serious flooding from NW TX into the hill country around San Antonio. Oklahoma got seriously slammed too with some massive flooding around Kingfisher. Some of the CNN video I saw was unbelievable as the entire area around Kingfisher was nothing but one massive lake as far as you could see.

Erin also pulled a trick and pretended to become a strong tropical storm early Saturday morning. In the most amazing post-tropical system deja vu I have ever seen, Erin suddenly intensified developing an eye and sustained winds of 50mph and higher gusts!!! The radar presentation says it all. Jay McCoy provided the following incredible link: Tropical Storm Erin? Amazingly, the surface pressures dropped rapidly with about 29.57 the lowest I saw.

Check out the following images for more amazing data:

http://americium.gcn.ou.edu/ts_erin.png
(Donald Giuliano's image he posted to Stormtrack)

Watonga, OK Meteogram (credit to Rich Thomspon)

Oklahoma Mesonet(credit to Rich Thompson)

Another good radar image. (credit to Rich Thompson)

So, did it actually become a tropical storm? I'd say the data above would support that conclusion. Of course, tropical storms require warm, ocean water right? I don't see a sepcific definition of that (akin to the tired and worn out "what is a tornado" arguments that pop up about as frequently as the amber light bar debate). Well, that portion of OK around Kingfisher to Watonga was practically an ocean with all of the flood waters around there. Oh, and remember the first two "tropical storms" so early in the season this year? Erin over Oklahoma looked alot more impressive and more of a TS than those systems ever did.

That's my argument. :-) I welcome other opinions and arguments as well...particularly those that disagree. I only ask that you present some sort of data or other information to support your position. Not that I'm being snotty, I just want to know what I might be missing.

And, if that weren't enough, we had some vicious storms today from near Amarillo to a big monster up in W/SW KS. The cell close to Amarillo looked pretty cool with an explosive, billowing updraft. I didn't have my camera, so I had to race home and get it. As soon as I did, I snapped the pic below just prior to it gaining a SVR on it. Of course, as soon as I drove towards it, the powers of the Stevoid vanquished it into a puff of water vapor. ;-)

I also finally broke down and got a good MP3 player. Those that know me know I am very passionate about my music and that I have a decent collection. I was wanting something of no less 30gb and preferrably more as I continue to grow my collection. I didn't want to go the IPod route because of the issues Steve Miller of OK had with his (mainly the irritating, constant updates everytime he synched it up) and that I usually don't like to follow the crowd. ;-) So, after alot of research and decision-making, I ended up with a Creative ZEN Vison: M 60GB.

I can also play movies, show pictures, FM radio, an organizer, voice recorder, and an amazing quality 2.5" screen. But, the main thing is the music. The audio quality is excellent and has a 5-band EQ that works pretty good. I would have preferred a 7-band though. The scroll pad took a little getting used to, but now I love it. My only complaint is that the sync software that comes with it is kind of weak. Creating playlists is a pain. The player itself, you can't add a song to an existing playlist..nor can you group by a star rating...even with the software. But, that is my only complaint. I can't believe how many songs I've crammed onto it with plenty of room left over. :-)

Lastly, speaking of music, I just discovered a very unique and talented artist from here in West Texas. If I asked you to guess what instrument he played, I bet you'd guess piano towards the last. His name is Doug Smith. I caught a special about him on the local PBS station this evening and was instantly hooked. His story behind the music and his biography were very interesting. In short, he attempts to capture the spirit of all things "West Texas" in his music with such songs as "Tumbleweed Rag" among many others. I urge you to take a listen. I'll be picking up some CDs soon.

Unfortunately and quite tragically, I also learned that he was recently in a serious accident. He has suffered serious spinal injury and is undergoing recovery. There is serious concern about neurological injury affecting his hands. Hopefully, he will pull though completely. Details about his recovery efforts are on his website. Just another reason to pick up a CD or two if you like his music.

Well, that's it for this go 'round. I hope everybody has a good week and keeps their favorite cold beverage at the ready to help everybody beat the heat. August is waning. That's a good thing considering we set a record today of 101F.

Dean & Erin

Wow. TS Dean still out in the Atlantic is closing in on hurricane status. TS Erin was just born about an hour ago after a reconnaissance flight found good organization which is also quite apparent on satellite.

The interesting and scary aspect of these two stroms are that Erin will move into South Texas, up the Rio Grande and a curve into West Texas. Alot of the state will see moderate to heavy rains. Parts of South Texas are still recovering from flooding amonth ago. A couple of rivers are still several feet above flood stage. Erin promises to dump quite abit of rainfall over the southern half of the state. I'm sure flooding will be a serious problem.

Erin's big brother, Dean, continues to strengthen and is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean. All models have shifted back to moving Dean as a big, nasty hurricane into the GOM. The GFS keeps targeting the Texas coast as eventual landfall. Of course, this is still well beyond the envelope of reasonably accurate hurricane forecasting, but I really think the upper ridge will remain pretty strong and in place for awhile thus keeping Dean on a westward track towards Texas. That has been a fairly consistent trend and forecast among the medium range models as well as a persistant wether pattern the past couple of weeks. Plus, there's always the very strong deflecting effects of the Dewvoid® centered over southern Georgia too which will surely deflect Dean towards Texas and away from the SE US coastal areas. LOL!!

If this scenario does unfold, Texas will not only have to deal with a potential CAT 3 hurricane or stronger, but widespread heavy rains and extensive flooding...made all the worse from a very wet 2007 and TS Erin saturating everything ahead of Dean's arrival. It would in effect be a one-two punch from Ma Nature. This *could* be quite a catastrophe for the Lone Star State. I emphasize *could* because Dean is still along ways off and things are sure change to affect Dean's path. It is still too far off to get too excited....unless you are Al Gore and the looney left which hyperventilate and undergo panic attacks when the wind shifts direction. ;-)

So, indeed, some weather to talk about!!!!

TD4

It looks like the hurricane season is now cranking into full gear. TD4 was just born about an hour ago. This one bears watching folks as the extended models take this system into the GOM as a major hurricane in the 7-10 day period. The GFS is starting to insist on the Texas coast as a target. Of course, that is a long ways out and the system's track will depend largely on the evolution of the upper ridge over the southern half of the US. Still, enough consistency in the long range models demand some vigilence. That and the fact the Texas coast is overdue for a big 'cane.

Of course, with all of the global warming hysteria running rampant and is "in vogue" among liberals and the mainstream media, look for a knee-jerk reaction of similar proportions. With 2006 being a dud, they have an enormous amount of suppressed urges to sensationalize and hype a major hurricane. Be afraid....be very afraid. I think it's about time to renew my Blockbuster membership. ;-)

Stay tuned!!!

Pics Of The Week - June 7, 2005

While the upper ridge keeps it's grip firmly in place, there ain't much to talk about in the weather department. We might have something to chat about later next week as the GFS has been quite persitant in developing a hurricane in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean. In the meantime, here is my first picture of the week.

It is from an awesome LP supercell in SW South Dakota near Potato Creek. It produced a small funnel, but the structure was the show of the day. It was also popping out some isolated monster hailstones too. Some video I saw from somebody that was close to it looked like softball easily....and likely larger. Later, it morphed into a big haboob as a line from the west overtook it. The big complex of storms raced eastward across the state along I-90 at up to 70mph. I was barely able to stay ahead of it on the interstate. The NWS up there made a couple of presentations on that event and used my pics as part of that.

One sexy storm! :-) If anybody out there would like a nice, quality print or poster of these or any other pics I have, email me!













(All images are copyrighted. Unauthorized use or duplication strictly prohibited.)

Somedays.....

....you feel like there are lions at your throat and crocodiles on your butt.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU8DDYz68kM

It's a little over 8 minutes, but you got to watch the whole thing. Pretty amazing.

The Big Apple Gets The Big One

Wow. A confirmed EF2 tornado smacked Brooklyn yesterday. Too bad it missed the NY "Al Queda" Times building as an EF5. ;-)

http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_220172727.html

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/pns/tonado_NYC.txt

Man, if I owned a pizzeria up there, I'd claim to have "tornado-tossed" pizza instead of hand-tossed. ;-) I can just hear a chaser there in a thick Brooklyn accent: "Yo! I'm chas-eeng here! Whadda you a moron or sumdin? Get off da road youse freeking eediot!" LOL!! Of course, there's always Jack Corso. ;-)

Around My World In 180 Days

With the passing of the six month anniversary of "The Great Escape" from the festering armpit known as the DFW Metromess, I thought I'd give ya'll and update.

I've recently started to feel more settled and adjusted here in Amarillo. Like a new pair of jeans or sneakers, it is starting to fit me pretty well. It takes awhile to decompress from living in a hellish pressure cooker of stress, crime, pollution, insane amounts of traffic, rude/considerate/hateful people, the lunacy of working in large corporate environments, etc for over 20 years. I'm still decompressing and I believe that by the horizon of the next chase season (by March), I'll be in excellent shape. :-)

Part of my more recent feeling of getting settled down is getting used to a new job as well as working for a much smaller company than I have ever worked for in my life. As a result, they do ALOT of things quite differently and for the most part far better than what I've been accustomed to. One thing I don't miss are the endless and pointless meetings, mission statements, and managers that don't know shit about programming or development and never coded a program in their life. It's like Beethoven having a boss that can barely play "Chopsticks" on a piano. LOL!!!

Through today, I've added some skills to my developer toolbox. Spring and Spring MVC, Freemarker tags, DWR Ajax/javascript toolkit, advanced ANT, Google Web Toolkit, re-learn the Eclipse IDE, MySQL, and JBoss. It's been quite a ride the past six months to be sure.

At the six-month mark, I always evaluate a new job. I can say with certainty that it is far better than the past few gigs I've had. So, I feel like my decision to make a radical move was a good one. It also validates my self-evaluation that I'm really not cut out to be a corporate drone. Of course, not spending 3-4 hours per day crawling 24 miles each way helps alot too. :-)

Okay...enough with work. The apartment here has actually worked out quite well despite the one-time big wild college party by my new upstairs neighbors a few months ago. They have since been very respectful and courteous as well as very quiet. That fits quite well with the very peaceful and quiet part of the complex I live in. It's all a very nice and quiet neighborhood. Did I mention how quiet it is? ;-) I'll be renewing my lease this weekend.

Speaking of which, the house STILL hasn't sold back in McKinney. Come September, I'll be looking at making some hard decisions to get rid of that thing. My timing could not have been worse in putting that thing on the market. A couple of months sooner and it would have sold quickly like everything else around there. Now, there is a tremendous glut of new homes on the market in that area as well as more existing homes for sale. With the sub-prime mortgage industray taking a serious nose dive this year, the number of qualified buyers has really dried up. So, the law of supply and demand makes it a buyers market right now...big time. Wish me luck in getting rid of it.

Once I get the house thing settled, I'll be looking at getting a new vehicle! I have absolutely no idea yet on what I want. I'm torn between a 4WD SUV (for the ice, snow and flooding we get up here as well as all of the famous "muddy quagmire" bobs roads in the PH) and something very gas efficient as gas prices are certainly never going to get better. I'd like to be able to do some storm chasing. Then there is the fact that I want to get a decent bass boat too and I'll need a good tow vehicle. So, my choices right now range between a Moped and a Humvee. LOL!!

Speaking of fishing, I've really been eyeing Lake Alan Henry alot as well as Lake Meridith and Greenbelt Lake. Thus the desire to get a bass boat again. I used to be quite the fish-a-holic back in my day including bass clubs, a few tournaments and I even guided part-time on Lake Ray Roberts and Lake Fork. I'd really love to start doing a little fishing again...but not so serious as I did then. A boat may be off a ways in a couple of years though.

I also have the fever to start playing drums again. There is a decent music scene in Amarillo and I'm really getting the itch to start jamming with other musicians. The problem with that is 1) finding others that you get along with, 2) don't want to go on the road or play gigs several nights per week, 3) have the same musical tastes, 4) close to your musical abilities, 5) have their own vehicle and a job to pay the bills, 6) don't do drugs or major alcoholics and 7) likes to have fun!!. So, you may wonder if it is even possible to find musicians out there like that. ;-) I'll probably start inquiring around and doing some sit-ins and open mic or open jam sessions.

Whew!! That's alot. I hope I didn't bore you too bad. But hey, there really isn't any weather to talk about other than we are finally flirting with 100F for the first time this summer. September is on the horizon, so the weather should start getting active before too long. It is also interesting to point out that the state of Texas set an all-time record for the wettest first 7 months of the year. July was to coolest month since 1976 and the fourth coolest in 113 years.

In the mean time, I'll start posting some of my favorite weather pics I've taken over the years beginning sometime this week. That should be pretty easy to update on a regular basis. :-)

Ya'll stay cool out there.