Chase Opportunity?

UPDATE 1930Z: The 18z RUC continues it's forecast of very high helicities and moderate/strong instability for some pretty good storms today in the E half of the TX PH. It is breaking out precip by 00Z from Amarillo and points NE and E where it insists on developing a good convergence zone.

Latest analysis and RUC forecasts continue to indicate precip breaking out across the TX PH from roughly Amarillo in the NE PH. CAPE forecasts exceed 3000j/kg. With 15-20 knots mid level flow atop SE and S low level flow, RUC is forecasting 300-500 helicities across the E half of the PH.

A couple of weak boundaries persist across the area, but it is impossible for me to tell if they will last into late afternoon. But, any storm that can find a boundary would of course be THE storm to intercept.

As usual, I'll be monitoring things through the afternoon and see how things progress.

Big Chase Day....Take 2

First, an update on the horrendous flooding in North Texas. Read the Dallas Morning News story and check out WFAA for the latest. It appears this is the worst flooding on 150 years. 5 people lost their lives and a few others are missing with the worst presumed. Absolutely devestating. As if this tragedy isn't bad enough, in the news today are 9 brave firefighters that died in the line of duty in South Carolina. A dark day indeed.

For the TX PH severe potential....

I completely missed the weak subsidence across the area yesterday which the SPC picked up on with the 20Z outlook. As a result, barely a cumulus cloud developed despite decent surface convergence and surface low which showed up well on the LBB radar loops yesterday. What a waste of CAPE.

Today, another one of those special events is occurring....70 degree dewpoints making it up on the caprock. It felt truly tropical this morning in Amarillo. The result will once again be some volatile instabilities for the "Caprock Magic" to work with. With roughly NW flow aloft and pronounced SE upslope flow, the stage is set for some nasty supercells to explode today. A weak frontal boundary exists across the S TX PH, but should wash out quickly this afternoon. With no surface focus to speak of, exactly where to target will be the question. The NAM and RUC are offering different solutions as to where stuff will break out. But, generally, they are favoring the TX PH. We don't seem to have the cap and subsidence that klilled us yesterday.

So, working away today in Amarillo seems to be the best option. :-) I'll start monitoring things later this afternoon and watch satellite and surface parameters.

A Big Chase Day?

UPDATE 1830Z: While I was at lunch, I learned of some very serious, catastrophic flooding occurring around my old home region. Hardest hit appear to be Gainesville, where I used to live for a short time, but many locations in North Texas are having problems. I've got relatives east of Gainesville, but they are ok. Watching some of the video, I clearly recognize several areas now underwater. It's pretty stunning. For more info: http://www.wfaa.com/

For the first time this season, we are setting up some explosive instabilities in the southern plains. With a weak frontal boundary slowly sagging across the TX PH and OK this afternoon with a weak surface low around Plainview, it is a good surface setup.

What gets the stormwood going for me is the forecast highly volatile and explosive CAPE...both surface and mixed layer. The RUC is forecasting surface-based CAPE by 00Z exceeding 8000 j/kg. That's right...you read that correctly. Take a good look at that because it's rare to see it that high...even for the RUC. The mixed-layer CAPE is pegged at 6000j/kg. These bullseyes of instability are across the area from around Wichita Falls southward into the hill country. It is a proverbial ammunition depot (not just a powder keg) waiting to be lit. With this kind of instability, the atmosphere tends to ignore the normal parameters of shear. In fact, the meteorology textbook gets thrown out the door. "Unexpected" events tend to occur (ie...Jarrel, Lake Whitney tornado). There is plenty of veering with height which is all we need. :-)

There is no way to truly forecast what will happen except that any supercell that gets isolated is going to go absolutely bonkers...totally crazy. There is no telling which way they will move/propogate, but the general idea I have is pretty much almost due south...slowly. There will of course be alot of potential for HP cells of course, but as I said above, anything can (and often does!) happen.

So, back to the forecast after salivating over the potential......

The TX PH and S Plains area is where I'll focus since that is where I can chase today. :-) Although we won't see the insane instabilities, they will still be quite stout of 3000-4000 j/Kg. The question is exactly where the front/surface low ends up by peak heating and initiation. The RUC I think has the right idea of the Lubbock/Plainview/Turkey vicinity as the best spot. It is also breaking out a lone cell there which makes sense under a strong cap. That is my target for this afternoon. But, it could easily shift 50-100 miles too, so I'll be watching it closely. When a cell does pop, it will go thermonuclear quickly. Given the boundary in place and strong instabilities and good vertical veering, it should be quite a show! It also appears to be a good setup for a couple of landspouts.

For the insance instabilities east of there, I would love to be along and west of the I-35 corridor today to catch anything that can pop up down there. The cap is fairly stout, but I suspect some subtle boundaries are around. All of the parameters are there for some tornadic supercells... a couple of them brutal.

There is also a couple of more opportunities through Wednesday. More on that in the morning.

More updates this afternoon.

pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffftttt...

UPDATE 1730Z: Today is really shaping up nicely for a couple of tornadic supercells. It's one of those days with each hour of analysis looking better as the day wears on. That's a polar opposite of what has usually transpired in 2007. :-) I'm getting excited as I look at the 17z analysis. I think the 1630z SPC outlook is dead on....although I would have extended it down towards Seymour/Guthrie. Anyway, I'm targeting Hollis,OK right now.

That's the sound of the 2007 chase season you hear deflating before us like a leaky old tire. After my pumping up June and putting it on a pedestal above May, it too is finding ways of destroying potential setups. The air is always being let out after pumping it up. Those cans of "fix-a-flat-pattern" aren't working.

With July 1 lurking around the corner signaling the traditional end of chase season, I'm going to try and take advantage of any decent little setup that comes about. Today is one of those setups. The SPC has the E TX PH, NW TX and W OK in a slight risk. Interestingly, the pattern is similar to a cold core setup as defined by Jon Davies. I said "similar", not "identical". ;-)

With the nearly stacked upper low meandering around the N TX PH today and a weak front crawling around the area combined with moderate instability and pretty good veering profiles, it's a setup worthy of a chase. In fact, with the way 2007 has deprived us SDS patients, it's akin to a glass of water to a person dying of thirst in the Mojave desert. Drink up! :-)

After today, the upper low meanders around the area for a couple of more days...round and round it goes....where it stops, no model knows. So, at least some convection will be around. And with upper lows, there is always the potential for a little surprise.

The crystal ball is teasing us with some possibilities next week as the ridge never really establishes itself, but keeps WNW and NW flow aloft with a low level upslope flow on occassion. These setups are always ones to keep an eye on each day. The June 2 event is evidence of that.

Ok...gotta get to work. Will update later.

The Forecast Challenge

UPDATE 2200z: Not looking too good on satellite. Still watching good convergence around Lubbock to Tulia, but cumulus fighting subsidence from departing little vortmax up in the extreme NE TX PH. It has been much slower to move out than I expected. Instability a tad weaker than I expected too. I'm losing hope fast. Will probably just head home straight from work.

The models aren't handling the instability today very well over the PH region. Objective SPC mesoanalysis already indicate ~1000 j/Kg with a good deal of moisture in place. Earlier convection and clouds are slowly clearing out which should allow for pretty good insolation today to cook things nicely across NM and the plains around Lubbock and perhaps a portion of the SW TX PH.

I'm sure an outflow/baroclinic boundary or two will abound today and become quite prevalent later this afternoon. It's hard to pinpoint, but should roughly be in the area outlined above where good insolation will occur. The models, backed up by current surface analysis, indicate a convergence zone setting up very roughly along the I-27 corridor today.

Upstairs, we have a good 300mb jet which will aid anvil ventilation and compensate somewhat for the weaker mid level flow. So, shear should be adequate. I fully expect to see ~1500 SBCAPE this afternoon without a problem. The 0-3km SBCAPE should be pretty good and in fact, is already up to 125 j/kg on the SPC mesoanalysis in the SW quad of the PH. I'm a bigger fan of MLCAPE, and even that should exceed 500 j/kg today. Basically, parameters will be there albeit marginal.

My plan is to watch things unfold and let daytime heating cook and build some Cu and help "draw" a picture of where things are setting up focus-wise. I'm eyeing the SW quad of the TX PH as storm motions should be N or NNE. I would be really tickled if a storm would remain stationary on a boundary someplace. :-)

So....in monitoring mode now. I do expect to be out and about today.

6/9 Pics & Forecast Mumblings

Today might present a decent little chase closer to home. I'm eyeing a couple of subtle outflow boundaries from around Tulia to Pampa. Instabilities are forecast to reach 2000+ in the TX PH today, particularly around those boundaries, with abit of storm-relative helicity values. Current satellite trends show that we will have strong insolation today to cook all of the ingredients up for a couple of good storms.

Tomorrow....ummmm....nothing there. LOL!

Tuesday has a good possibility for some supercells as the trough out west opens up and moves towards the TX PH and KS. How fast it does so is the wild card for where the best storms will be. The NAM is on crack with it's nil CAPE forecast...we should see at least 1500. Stay tuned for this possible event.

Beyond that, I'm not going to speculate at this point. The models are all over the place with solutions. I'm just not too lazy this morning to roll the bones and dissect the noise. It's easier to let things sort themselves out until we get some semblence of agreement among the models.

Yesterday's chase was "ok" and not quite what I hoped for. The moisture and storms just didn't quite get in sync until near dark and by that time, they quickly formed a squall. At one point near Ulysses, KS, the severe storm there took on an interesting characteristic and just almost caused me to call in a possible developing tornado. You'll see that in the pics below.

In the gripe and moan department, I had terrible data problems yesterday. The data feed for GR3 decided to take a dump. The radar images were updating every 4-5 minutes, but were consistently 30-50 minutes old. I even rebooted the computer to see if that would help...I was that desperate. When I got home, I tried GR3 on the desktop and had the same problem. AS Rick pointed out in the comments yesterday, it is apparently a NWS data feed problem. Fortunately, my data connection was pretty solid most of the time so I got COD and NWS radar images off the internet.

WxWorx was a pain in the butt too. I'd look down to see a stale image and then a red button on "XmLink". It would do this off and on the entire evening. When I got home, I discovered that one of my antenna cables had come loose and was sitting right on top of the XM antenna puck. LOL!! On top of that, the biting flies in Kansas were pretty vicious and ravenous little buggers. Even with a good dose of insect repellent, they would keep finding a place I didn't spray and "notify" me about it. Next time, I'm bringing a flame thrower. ;-)

OK....some pics!

Near Kendall, KS. The wheat fields up there were amazing...a sea of gold.


Sotmr just south of Ulysses..watch for the dust plume underneath it. Any visual evidence of rotation in the storm there? ;-)


Hmmmm...the plot thickens. I was a ways off, but I could not discern any sort of rotation in the dust column, but it was getting lifted straight up.


This is about the point where I almost made a call to NWS DDC and report a "possible" developing tornado. I wanted to watch it abit more before I did though. Besides, other spotters were closer to it.

My last good picture of the storm.

Quick Forecast

I'll be heading north to target SE CO and SW KS where pretty good vertical wind profiles and instabilities will support a supercell or two up there. Already some nice bubbling Cu in SE CO with westerly flow steering storms into a progressively better environment. Will update on Tailcaster (link to right) from the road starting about 3pm.

Chasers Of Tornado Alley - Curse Of The Black Void

Ok....I know that was a cheap humor attempt with Pirates Of The Caribbean. After two days of abuse from mother nature who decided to follow her own playbook, I'm trying to maintain some sense of humor in the chaser ranks including Dewdrop, the Tulsa Gang, and my TX PH gang. On the brighter side of things, at least population centers were spared yesterday aside from a couple of reports of brutal hail.

Today, that front is seriously hauling butt to the Rio Grande valley. So much for my slight skepticism from yesterday regarding it's movement. LOL!! It's actually abit chilly here this morning...very nice!

For the weekend, the 12 NAM continues to dash the earlier hopes of a good stormchasing excursion for me this weekend. There isn't a clear signal for a decent setup for supercells within range for me...even on a weekend pass. It really smacks the mid level winds down and weakens the instability. I will of course take each day one at a time in case the NAM is wrong.

Fortunately, models still promise an active week next week...particularly the first half. In fact, it looks pretty darned good. I hope it doesn't fizzle out too. Fortunately, the models are in very good agreements with some strong consistency. So, I'm planning on a nice little active period for my neck of the woods starting Monday. The GFS also changed it's tune for the ridge establishing itself the last half of June and the ensembles certainly look interesting. There is still plenty of opportunity for June to save the season. :-)

Forecast Ramblings

I'll be watching the big show unfold across the upper Mississippi Valley region today as a pretty potent situation unfolds. There is a grave concern for long tracked and violent tornadoes up there today. I hope that they will avoid population centers today, but in reality, there are alot of targets for storms to take aim on. Let's hope for the best. I know Dewdrop and the sisters are in the middle of the PDS watch in Iowa right now...already some tornado warnings out. They should really be in the thick of things today.

I think the SPC tornado hatch area into OK is overdone today as veered surface and 850mb flow works against helicities. But, with CAPE going nuts down there today and the frontal boundary roughly perpendicular to low level flow, some deviant moving storms could get going. It'll be fun to watch. Best of luck to the Tulsa gang today.

For tomorrow, models are in agreement to push the front further south than I first thought...south of I-20 in SW TX. I still have a slight bit of skepticism that it will make it that far south tomorrow afternoon because:

1) We are approaching mid June,

2) Noted pressure falls by afternoon upstream with 850mb winds already returning from the SE by mid afternoon, and

3) The front will encounter alot of hot air and daytime heating which typically works against frontal movements. In this case, there will full insolation behind it as well heating things up.

So, for it to make it as far south as the GFS/NAM indicate will be quite a feat. It will be interesting to see what happens. The further south it moves, it will be further away from favorable mid and upper winds for needed shear.

For Saturday, things are abit more muddy today with model forecasts. I won't go into detail yet, but I still think there will be some supercells to chase. Where is a big question right now along with how much precip develops over the PH region and along the retreating front overnight. Many questions arise. I'll focus on that as we get closer.

Sunday, still looks like E CO into E NM and the TX PH and far W KS with a dryline/upslope event. I still like the supercell potential.

Pretty much all of next week looks VERY active each day for my region. The models are being quite persistant and coming into decent agreement for an extended period of good stormchasing each and every day. I expect to be one tired little chaser next week. :-) The good news are that gas prices are showing a decent decline the past few days. I hope it lasts.

I'm looking forward to that as I start eyeing July on the calendar which is typically the end of chase season. But as crazy as this year has been...who knows? As I've stated before, E CO can really rock in July. :-)

My Cap Runneth Over

It looks like the cap will win out today for anything south of Nebraska. The main reason for this are the jet dynamics coming into play. The capped areas today will be under the influence of a right exit region across Kansas and the anticyclonic region elsewhere. In plain terms, weak to moderate descending motions in the atmosphere will keep everything suppressed quite effectively today by strengthening and deepening the capping inversion. However, South Dakota and the northern parts of Nebraska should rock and roll big time this afternoon and early evening. I expect several reports of ecstatic Happy Dew Dancing this evening. ;-)

Of course, should any isolated storm erupt down here in my neck of the woods, it would go severe because of the instability in place and perhaps pop a tornado or two. But, I'm not burning any precious gas on such a long shot possibility. I give it about a 5% chance of something popping within my range today. I'll be watching it of course. If I lived closer to Steve Miller OK, I'd probably buy the beer and watch it from his boat. LOL!!

Tomorrow, perhaps OK will be a good play. But I'm waiting for Friday/Saturday/Sunday as I think those will be good chase days.

Friday still looks like a great setup in SW TX and SE NM. The models are inching the forecast frontal position a tad further north with each run, so I'm pretty confident of a setup between Lubbock and Midland. With helicities easily exceeding 300, some corkscrewing supercells are a distinct possibility with tornadic potential along the stationary frontal boundary.

Saturday and Sunday look like good days with a combination of dryline and/or mountain induced convection rolling into E CO, W KS and the TX PH with excellent parameters for supercells.

That's it for now from Tailchaser central.

June Outbreak!!!!!

Definitely a big week's worth of chasing ahead of us!! A special shout out to Dewdrop and her husband as they make their Tornado Alley debut with the Twister Sisters. She must be in good graces with the storm gods (no....not the high priests of stormchasing...lol!) as Wednesday has all of the makings for a significant outbreak of tornadic supercells all across parts of South Dakota into northern Kansas and perhaps even into the big stormvoid of Oklahoma herein known as the Oklavoid®! ;-)

Some possibility exists for the eastern TX PH too, but anything south of I-70 will be fighting a fierce cap. Regardless, Dewdrop's entourage should be right in the middle of the thick of things tomorrow. I predict that several tornadoes will be had and an extended performance of the Happy Dew Dance into the wee hours of Thursday morning. She might even see more tornadoes in one day than I have all year! :-) Be sure to check out her blog as she chronicles her adventure!

Today appears mediocre for my area, but I'd love to be up in W NE and NE CO today.

Wednesday: Outbreak.

Thursday looks like Oklahoma for sure. If the entire front doesn't instantly line out, I like that play as well. But, that is Oklavoid territory, so we'll see. :-)

Friday, back to the 2007 posterchild state for tornado alley, some very interesting possibilities in SW TX and SE NM. The forecast helicities down there along the front are totally nuts. I see no reason that it won't be a classic setup of upslope with easterly low level winds with westerlies up top. The question mark is how strong the westerlies will be and where the front actually winds up..or lifts north during the afternoon. However, instability and moisture will be abundant along with the aformentioned helicities. I've got a feeling that the front will actually end up a little further north than the 12z NAM forecast. We'll see as the event draws closer.

Saturday, it appears that a significant event may unfold across E CO with the upslope regime and down along the dryline into west Texas. I really love setups with westerlies perpendicular to a dryline. Could very well be some monster tornadic supercells with all of the juice that will be in place.

Sunday, similar setup, but looking like a pretty significant E CO upslope event and for the TX PH.

Monday and beyond....significant severe weather events possible for pretty much all of next week all across tornado alley. It's an incredible and unbelievable upper air pattern establishing itself. The GFS ensembles (NOT the operational runs) have been prediciting it for a couple weeks now along with Ed Berry. It's nice to see it all coming together. I'm gonna be one tired little stormchaser come the end of June.

A monster typhoon is bearing down on the Persian Gulf, so I would not be surprised to see us get gouged even more with prices to exceed $4/gallon soon. I'm going to be totally broke come the end of June. But hey, at least I won't mortgage the house like other addictions lead people to do. ;-) However, if we then get another big hurricane into the GOM, gas will become more expensive than fine wine. We'll start seeing scenes straight out of MadMax with people taking over refineries and turning them into fortresses. Sheesh.

Until then....JUNE ROCKS!! May who? LOL!

6/3 Pics

A nice surprise chase on Sunday. I was out farting around doing some Sunday driving and upon returning to Amarillo, I saw this little cell really get it's act together, pop a severe warning with ping pong hailers, and even a bit of slight rotation. I love Amarillo! :-)

First off, this is a view from a small lot for sale in a new housing addition. If I could afford it....


A stunning view as the sun sets on the severe cell near Amarillo. There's rotation in them thar clouds. ;-)


I'd toast that sunset with a cold Ziegenbock. Fer you non-Texans, it's the world's greatest beer brewed right here in the Lone Star state.






I took advantage of the amberish city lights from Tulia to get a cool colorization effect.

6/2 Supercell-O-Rama

June just kicked May's butt yesterday. May got "owned". Once again, I tally up another "most memorable chase" to June. The sad state of affairs of course is I screwed up my camera shots (out of focus, frame offset) and didn't get enough distance in time to capture the best looking updraft structure I've ever seen personally or in others' photos. I have never seen an updraft structure like I saw yesterday.

The entire "barrel" updraft was perfectly striated in multiple layers in a corkscrewed or "barber pole" fashion. I'm even talking about the anvil, yes, the ANVIL level, where you could see the feathery part of it (precip) in sync with the striated updraft and wrapping into the top of the storm. From surface to 50,000 feet, this baby was rotating like crazy. I was in complete awe and a state of total chaser nirvana. :-)

For the report....it's a long one, so if you want to see the pics and skip this....scroll down. :-)

Started off the day targeting Lubbock/Hobbs/Midland vicinity. I sat around Wolfforth for awhile. Everything I was analyzing said that was the best place to be...right up to 5pm. I kept eyeing the bubbling boundary up around Hereford/Happy, but I was going to stick to my guns as i watched some healthy Cu continue to challenge the cap. I thought the stuff up there would become multi-clusterish which I had expereinced abit too much of in 2007. However, the storm around Hereford got going and it became clear on satellite that the cap was holding on a bit stronger in my target area. By 5:30, I could see the Hereford storm's updraft and that alone made an convincing argument to go play with it.

As I caught up to it near Dimmit, the updraft was impresive, but it was a high based storm...nothing special. In fact, I expected it to intensify and gust out quickly with dewpoint depressions running around 30F and weak 850mb firecast winds. However, I knew that storm motions would be SE and moving into much better moisture. In addition, the inflow wasn't weak...but more like 15-20 knots. AND, the storm was practically stationary....very important. The storm-relative winds in the mid and upper levels were marginal to ideal. Stationary storms also have a tendency to be strong devient movers eventually. This one had all the makings of a southward moving storm. But, I was still thinking it would becoming outflow dominant.

After about an hour though, I noticed that the precip core was really getting spread out downstream nicely from the updraft base...a nice separation. The precip core wasn't that heavy. The updraft base becaome more organized and started lowering as the better moisture started feeding into it. They popped a SVR on it and I watched this thing morph into a nice supercell with a screaming eagle appearance on radar along with some rotation evident in the cloud base. I got all giddy because it became clear this was going to become an intense isolated supercell!! No more clusterd crap or linear segments! Woohoo! :-)

It then began a southward drift and looking even better. As I maneuvered to stay in place, I saw an intense outflow jet knife out of the precip area (RFD?) into the updraft area. Interestingly, the inflow picked up abit. The wall cloud really got organized quickly and the rotation became more apparent just south of Dimmit. The outflow "jet" was amazing as it assaulted a large (and quite smelly) cattle feed lot. It had to be 70mph at least. As the rotation in the wall cloud above it got a tad better organized, some of the dust lifted a tad and would curl. This was very close to tornadogensis. However, the outflow won out...but only temporarily. The wall cloud was still organizing and the rotation at cloud base was evident.

As the storm slowly drifted south, the rotation in the base and wall cloud developed an intense area of circulation. Then, presto, a spinup on the ground underneath it! Tornado! I had been trying to call NWS LBB, but Cingular was being a major pain in the ass. Fortunately, David Drummong reached me and he relayed the report to them and the LBB TV station he works for. The ground rotation intensified and organized quickly after abit of chaotic attempt. A small funnel needled from the wall cloud. Things were nuts!! After rebooting my phone, I was able to call the NWS LBB and confirm my report...5 miles NW of Sunnyside. (I think it was more like 7 miles, but was 5 when the warning came out).

As I and a couple of locals watched the area of rotation become enveloped by a precip core (but still thin enough to see it), I saw a couple of nice vortices within it. About that time, this gentleman in a pickup truck passed us heading right into the strong rotation. I flagged him down though and he backed up...fortunately. He had no idea that he was about to drive into a developing tornado. Yikes.

I continued down some bob's roads watching the storm continue to grow and intensify. the tornadic corculation was now rain wrapped and difficult to see. However, the precip thinned enough to reveal a good-sized cone funnel within a LARGE area of wrapping/rotation rain curtains which I called in to the NWS again. It reminded me a bit of 6/12/05 as it looked like one big merry-go-round. I could not make out that the funnel was on the ground however.

After that, it got completely obscured again by the precip core and I couldn't see anything. Fortunately, spotters and a couple of chasers including Jason Boggs who passed me earlier, were in closer on it. I was a newly developing wall cloud to the east of it and I dropped back to watch it. However, the show would continue to be in the precip core for the next couple of hours. I got back in close again near Earth (yeah, that's a town name..lol) and watched a big wall cloud develop over the small town. I kept watching for signs of a tornado, but did not see any. Eventually, road networks and the storm's attempt to smack me with some isolated tennis ball hailstones being tossed out of the updraft didn't allow me to get back in close after that.

I decided to get some distance on it and try to do some lightning shots since it was getting dark. I had been having HORRENDOUS problems with GR3 radar data (I could get everything else..BUT radar images) and I didn't want to risk it. As I setup, here comes David Drummond down the same isolated dirt road I was on. LOL!! As we did some lightning shots, the CGs were getting dangerously close....and I then realized who was standing next to me...the human lightning rod himself. ;-) So we vamoosed and my intent now was to drive alot more to get out further away and do some lightning/structure shots.

When I did and stopped to get out and look, that's when my jaw hit the dirt road as I observed the structure described above. it wouldn't fit in the viewfinder, so I needed to make some more distance. By that time, the structure was still great, but additional mid clouds came in and couldn't see it anymore. And of course, I somehow managed to set the camera a tad out of focuse again and wasn't watching the viewfinder. So, I got alot of slightly fuzzy pics with part of the bottom portion of the storm out of the frame. DOH!! I definitely need to get a good wider angled lens for sure...and something easier to focus at night. My 17-40mm is just too sensitive around the infinity setting.

I ended up getting squeezed by this storm and a new one erupting about 20 miles to the south. I made for the escape "corridor" to my east and called it a night.

Anyway, still got some good shots and the video is pretty darned good which I'll post a clip sometime later. There was a small chaser convergence, but not bad at all. I just wish that when pulling over, some don't slow down to 30mph for a thousand feet or more looking for a place to park...especially when the speed limit is 70mph. At one point, the roadway came to a near-complete stop for about three vehicles s-l-o-w-l-y pulling off onto a nice, big broad flat short grassy surface. Sheesh!

Anyway, the dirt road network is good out there and they were dry for the most part which allowed for a good dispersal of chasers, spotters and LE. I did almost get stuck on one road though as I tried to escape for the night. That was abit tense. I also saw another Honda Element chaser vehicle. LOL!! I ended up right behind it a few miles and even pulled over on the same road with them. They weren't the sociable type however...perhaps in a hurry.

Overall, an incredible chase! I always enjoy watching a storm like this go through an entire life cycle from just a Joe B. Average storm to a wild and crazy tornadic supercell...all while lumbering along in a slow fashion. I got to do more observing and drooling than frantic driving and navigating. The structure on this thing alone was worth every penny I spent on gas and munchies. If it's June in the TX PH.....you chase!! :-)

What I'm interested in knowing is what in the heck happened today to produce such a significant tornadic supercell event? I think subtle residual outflow boundaries oriented perfectly with the NWish flow and instability/moisture axis combined with a weak mid level impulse are the main players. The storm motions nearly due south also had alot to do with it too creating both ideal storm relative winds and increased storm-relative helicites. But, the way these cells looked on radar, there had to be something else at play here. They were all corkscrewing screaming eagle cells with sharp hooks on them. If we would have had some stronger low level flow, there would have been more large and more violent tornadoes without a doubt.

For today, I'll sit it out unless something fires close to Amarillo (which I doubt). SW TX is way too far for a work night. The models are going absolutely nuts for the next 10 days and beyond with a pattern more associated with May. June is going to roack and roll big time for sure. I need to save my gas money for the upcoming better setups for the next couple of weeks. :-)

Okay...okay....some pics:

http://texastailchaser.com/chases/2007/june2/pictures/

A few teasers:

A tasty, invigorating juice beverage to help locally enhance storm-relative helicities. This might be my new good-luck charm since it was the first time I've tried it. The results are scientifically
proven ;-)


Rotating wall cloud immediately after first tornado.


Can you make out the funnel in the merry-go-round wrapping rain curtains?


Storm woodie alert.

6/2 Forecast

2115Z UPDATE: Sitting here SW of Lubbock around Wolfforth. Although I keep eyeing the boundary up around Hereford/Canyon, SPC mesoanalysis and surface obs tell me to stay put. Strong instabilities and a few other favorable parameters are in this region. I am seeing a few cumulus looking pretty healthy now and starting to challenge the cap. Will start updating on Tailchaser (link to right)

1815z UPDATE: Headed to Terry County....and probably S to OFB

All signs point to the Midland/Lubbock area today. A strong OFB (main one) backed up with a considerable cold pool and bubble high should keep it in place today. It extends from around Seminole to Colorado City and eastward along the I-20 corridor. Another weaker OFB extends south of that from Seminole SE into the Hill Country. And yet another one, possibly the front, extends across the TX PH.

I'm a bit concerned that the main OFB is still making southward progress though per satellite and surface analysis. However, I see signs that it is slowing down with the low level stratus sreaming north of it. That tells me it is paper thin. With mixing this afternoon, I'm thinking we might see it firm up near LBB. We'll see.

In any event, NAM/RUC are painting the strongest instabilities down there along with better upper level winds. I'm tired of HPs, so this should give me a better shot at something other than that. I'll update my thoughts on here as I head down that way and switch to Tailcaster when the action starts heating up. I just hope for a good, isolated cell today.

6/1 Pics & Report

Nothing unexpected happened with weak mid level winds. However, strong veering with height and moderate CAPE and a front clashing with a weak outflow boundary made for some fun today. :-)

I made it down to Hereford where I planned on making a decision to head north and find the OFB/front intersection or head down towards Clovis. Distance made the decision for me today as the NM cell was moving south away from me. After grabbing some Mickey D's and chatting with Jason Boggs who happened to be in the parking lot, I saw the cells up north visually and on radar start exploding. So, off I went.

When I got there, the radar was really lighting up with several cells around and near Oldham County gaining strength and curiousy, several showing a little hook signature to them. Cool! :-) As I got to Vega, I could see three wall clouds associated with each cell and a new one developing on front of me. That is a first for me to see such a sight. The storm closer to Vega really started cranking and I stayed with it watching a pretty cool wall cloud develop and grow. it didn't take long to see that it was going to become outflow dominant pretty quick. However, it did produce some cool horizontal rolling of the wall cloud as it morphed into a shelf cloud. Pretty cool.

I danced around with it as it started joining the developing line segment. I headed east to intercept a *westward* moving cell south of Wildorado and had a nice hook on it. Before long, it too got swallowed by the big line segment. It was at this time that I noticed pretty significant and tight rotation at tilts 2-4 on GR3 and pretty soon after that, a tornado warning issued. I was able to peer into the area with the rotation, but it was all within a very heavy precip core...a "book end" meso. I could never make anything out at all.

As the big storm started bulging south, I stayed just ahead of it to Hereford and then headed back towards Canyon on 60. I noticed on radar once again a good rotation couplet aloft with a slight hookish appearance on radar....all just to my north. Lo and behold, I saw a large plume of dust (which I thought was outflow) organize into a more concentrated mass. I thought it was a nice gustnado until the dust formed into a faint cylindrical column and lofted upward halfway to the cloud base where I could make out what appeared to be a little rotation. The contrast overall was poor, so it's hard to be certain wht it really was. The radar presentation would certainly support the idea that it was a weak, brief tornado. Whatever it was soon dissipated though.

I headed home and got a few more cool pics as I did. Unfortunately, it was on ISO 800 for the last few, so the quality is abit on the poor side. Here are the pics:

New storm forming in front of me. Note the distant wall cloud on the horizon. This was the stronger storm that showed a bit of a hook and a good meso. The lowering looked suspicious for a minute or two. I actually got the video camera out and focused on it just in case.


Wall cloud developing nicely. It had a hint of rotation to it too.


The storm as it transitions to HP outflowish storm. I started seeing horizontal rolling at this point.


Ever see underwater video of ocean wave action...like when surfers wipe out? At least this is what it reminded me of. LOL!! Pretty cool.


Hereford gets swallowed by this beast...which starts taking on a glow from the sunset.




Off to bed. I am planning on a road trip tomorrow based on ETA model run this evening. I'll mosey down to Lubbock tomorrow morning where strong instability and shear with impressive veering profiles should pop some pretty mean tornadic supercells...similar to the awesome one I watched on radar down there earlier this evening in Gaines/Dawson/Martin counties. That thing looked like it was nuts. I hope to find a similar one tomorrow somewhere.

June's Swoon / Today's Setup

UPDATE 2100z: Hard to argue with anything other than Clovis/Lubbock area for a target. OFB appears to have nearly stalled and in excellent orientation to steering flow and expected storm development. Concern is that several storms will erupt on boundary....but starting to think that somethin in E NM will fire up (as it is now) and latch onto OFB and go nuts. Looks like HP mode, but with CAPE up to 5000 per SPC mesoanalysis and LI exceeding -10C, some rather potent supercells should explode here shortly. Out the door in about 30 minutes. This should be fun!!!! Will update on Tailcaster (link to right).

Ok....now that May is out of the way, let the Chase-O-Rama begin! :-) Some of my best, most memorable chases have occurred in June.

6/13/98 (Guthrie/OKC)
6/9/04 (NW KS)
6/12/04 (Mulvane, KS)
6/12/05 (Kent County, TX)

Even when I wasn't able to chase, I have "virtually" chase from my computer desk watching and salivating over some of the most awesome radar images I've ever seen. So, I am quite happy to turn the calendar page today.

To celebrate, it appears that today is setting up to be a classic OFB event...one my most favorite. The question is just how far south the current, new OFB will setup due to ongoing convection across the TX PH. I'm a bit perplexed as storms continue to erupt and fire all over the place. This will create a larger cold pool which in turn accelerates the OFB making it take on more of a cold front characteristic. Tornadic supercells don't like fresh, fast moving OFBs just like they don't like fast moving cold fronts. I prefer to see more stagnant OFBs that are nearly stationary with good insolation on both sides of it...AND generally parallel to mean steering flow.

To complicate things, the northern half of the PH into NE NM is forecast to destabilize significantly this afternoon with a true synoptic scale boundary/front across the OK PH and NE NM. The RUC is breaking out storms along this feature as well with favorable dynamics. I'm not sure exactly how much CAPE we'll see for these storms to work with...and siding more on the pessimistic NAM forecast.

On the otherhand, the OFB could very well end up being the bad play today, and I expect it will for the most part. What I'm watching is the westward portion near the NM border. On radar, it is pronounces with a new storm forming along it near Vega. It sucks that it is forming this early since I'm stuck at work. It just popped a severe and taking on a nice radar signature. This would be THE cell to be in imo. It is setup up favorably with the OFB position...if the OFB slows down. But...about when I say that....it starts to fizzle. LOL!!

Very simply, I'm in a holding pattern....a wait-and-see status. Since I can't cut out of here too early, I have little choice. By 4pm, I will be and at that time, take a look at things and blast out of here.