5/31 Pics

A few pics from my little chase adventure in Lamb/Hale counties, Texas.








I think this feature below *might* have been mistakenly reported as the tornado just east of Cotton Center. I sure didn't see one.

Today's Outlook 5/31/07

Nothing much to add to the fine SPC discussion. RUC and NAM are in good agreement on busting out storms up around the OK PH by 00Z and this will be my target. RUC is more pronounced with frontogenesis across the OK PH with strong convergence. Should this occur, it's a classic setup for one or two storms to root on this and really go nuts with perpendicular low level flow force feeding them. It's a classic setup for some deviant, slow moving cells. It's nice to finally see good, deep moisture up on the caprock. The stratus/cumulus is thick here in Amarillo with the surface dewpoints actually rising instead of dropping. We have alot of fuel to work with.

Today's Setup

2040Z UPDATE: Ready to head out the door shortly! Some developing Cu out along the NM border are increasing. It won't take long for anything to form to move into a fairly explosive environment. I'll head out W on I-40 to see what I can see while continuing to monitor data. Will update on Tailcaster (link on right)

1915z UPDATE: Taking a quick look at things, I'm really liking the area from about Tulia to Elkhart, KS. In particular, I'm focusing on the area from about Amarillo to Stratford. There, a pronounced dry punch is working into the Dalhart area (where light northerly winds have been for the past couple of hours). A mesolow is definitely there. ALOT of convergence in this area from Dalhart to Amarillo. The problem is lack of moisture as it has been scoured due to SW 850mb flow....and also creating a helluva cap.

However, model forecasts and current analysis indicate backing flow at 850mb now with a good SE component of surface winds from Elkhart/Stratford to Amarillo and east of I-27...where deeper moisture is working in from. Clarendon is now reporting a Td of 63 with a whole slew of lower 60Td south of Amarillo just east of I-27 poised to work up on the caprock per RUC guidance. I see no reason to doubt this based on the backing 850mb flow.

So....can the cap be busted? The RUC is pretty pessimistic about it with a small "dot" near Guymon and nothing at all after 00Z. With 700mb temps of around -11 to -12C, we are going to need some good moisture and convergence to overcome it. Interestingly, Tucumcari has soared to 90F and should continue to climb. Although this is indicative of a stout cap, it might serve to help punch it too as these hot temps clash with the moist air. The RUC has been flip-flopping about convergence towards 00Z, so once again, it's going to be a wild card...wait and see.

I still have some things to take care of, so I best go do them in case the cap gets busted. Right now, I'm giving it a 25% chance of doing so. I'm not optimistic at this point. But, anythng that does pop will be a wild one for sure.

I like alot of the parameters coming together today. But, I'm starting to think that the better dynamics aloft won't arrive until sunset or afterwards. This means marginal mid and upper flow, but still good low level flow and very good vertical veering. Instabilities will be good. However, it certainly looks like an HP fest once storms enter the better moisture. Similar to last week's 5/21 PH event, we might see high based storms form and grow out along the TX/NM border and becoming strongly outflow dominant...thus smacking down other isolated cells that try to form.

However, the RUC keeps trying to setup the dryline closer to I-27 for a good part of the day. I'm discounting this forecast for now due to the forecast surface low forming over NE NM or SE CO. The question is how much moisture can advect with backed flow across the panhandles? I'm not sold yet on an answer to that. It will have to be monitored throughout the day. This will have a huge impact on storm mode and evolution today. One thing in our favor will be a stronger cap down into the PH, but how strong remains to be seen. Perhaps model guidance will give us an idea later this morning. it is still early (7:00 am as I write this).

I have taken the day off, but most of that will be addressing some personal business. So, I have no idea when I'll be able to depart. Probably the earliest would be 3pm...if I'm lucky. My preliminary target idea is Dalhart with an eye SW of Amarillo...perhaps Hereford. I'll narrow this down as the day progresses.

2007...A Chase "Odd"yssey

May 2007 is going to go down in the chasing annals as another disappointing addition to a growing string of crappy Mays. As I've harped about before, the upper air pattern went completely comatose after May 6th and hasn't been the same yet. We've even had a tough time getting large areas of 3000+ CAPE to establish itself.

I had some hope a few days ago after studying GFS ensembles that the operational GFS was too aggressive with strong ridging in the Rockies and deep trough in the east. But, alas, all of the models are in agreement with just that type of setup for the foreseeable future.

However, I'm still sticking to my guns that most of June will be a great month. I'm starting to see enough consistency in the crystal ball that starting around June 7th, things start heating up big time. A large trough/broad upper low establishes itself in the western half of the CONUS. If the advertised blocking pattern establishes itself, we would get locked into that pattern for awhile. We shall see. :-)

Last Friday after work, I kept noticing a cluster of storms persisting out aroung Vega. There was enough instability there along with what seemed to be some sort of stationay and persitent convergence. I thought "what the heck" and moseyed on out there. I sat north of Vega for about 3 hours watching a stationary storm that went SVR and eventually tornado warned. That was quite a treat!!! When the TOR went out, the velocity couplet was pretty pronounced. I was able to get just NE and N of it on 385 and peer back into the notch. Although it was rain-wrapped, I could barely make out an ominous lowering. Some spotters in closer to it reported a brief funnel. The meso rotation was quite apparent in the parent cloud base. I hooked around to the east and back to I-40 and watched another large, ominous wall cloud develop with yet another storm near Vega. Eventually, everything went outflow dominant. But what a nice surprise chase! I think I'll love it living out here. :-)

Then, Saturday, I took a brief early afternoon nap and upon waking up, checked out satellite. An isolated storm had erupted down east of Canyon and was moving slowly south in conjunction with a distinct boundary. That was better than a good cup of double espresso! I was out the door in about 5 minutes. It went severe as I headed down I-27 to catch up to it. The anvil was impressive and the new updrafts were looking good. Unfortunately, my Stevoid powers kicked in and it fizzled as I got to it. I played around with a few other weak cells on the boundary hoping for a landspout, but alas, it just wasn't going to be my lucky day. LOL!!

Ok, back to enjoying the long weekend. Happy Memorial Day everybody!

Another Stevoid Moment

Well, I saw some pretty cool and interesting things going on with the storms today...mostly in Hutchinson County. The roads for the most part...well...there are none. LOL!!
I got really screwed on that today big time as the best part of the storm, which kept rejuvinating in the same place ended up in the perfect spot in NE Hutchinson county furthest away from any road to get near it. I'm beginning to strongly dislike chasing in Hutchinson and Roberts county.

After getting suckered by an outflow dominant storm, we saw the new developing cell in Hutchinson county that developed a pronounced hook early on. I took the longest option south on 70 to Pampa and then WNW to Borger and north through Stinnett. The whole time I am doing this, the radar has me salivating. Of course as I get to it, it peters out and then moves over no-road territory leaving me on the backside.

However, I got to experience alot of wierd things going on. The wind would blast from the west, go to zero, blast from the south, zero, then from the north...and so on. Some of the cloud motions overhead were insanely chaotic. So, at least that was fun to observe.

I stayed with the cells until it got to the point I had to head home. Overall, a pretty frustrating and disappointing day considering how everything appeared that it would unfold. Give me a raging dryline storm, baby. These frontal storms suck. The end.

So, the crystal ball shows another considerable down period for another week at least. There is some pretty optimistic signs that the subtropical jet will finally start nudging northward the first week of June. I want to see abit more consistency, but I'm starting to get a feeling that June is going to be a pretty wild month. We'll see.

Until then, I'll be "out of commission" through the Memorial Day Weekend as I need to take care of alot of personal business.

2007 Chase Season - The Sequal - Part Tres

2100Z Update: Headed out the door! Tornado-o-rama! Once again, updating live from the road..click the Tailcaster link to the right

It looks like the front continues making progress southward. I expect the SPC outlook to be shifted as well. My concern is that the focus will now be too far south for best upper dynamics/jets. What a strange day. I've also had some personal issues come up that I have to address today. So, there is a chance I may miss out if that front continues trekking south. I'll just be following along with the SPC outlooks today. One thing is for sure, that cell in KS yesterday was some serious storm porn.

Bust A Cap...errr...A Cap Bust

Well, I got to go watch the wind blow, see a prairie dog display, chase jack rabbits, and take pics of a wind farm. Just some of the fun you can have waiting for the dryline to fizzle. :-)

There's just no telling what you'll see on one of those country roads. This was just north of Pampa. I couldn't believe it when I saw it. Perhaps a warning to other wayward Prairie Dogs trying to cross the road?


These critters are FAST! They were everywhere...hundreds of them. Apparently the wet season this year has put a few bunnies in the mood to procreate. ;-)


Just thought this was a cool pic...didn't turn out as well as I had liked. We've been using wind energy for quite a long time.

2007 Chase Season - The Sequal - Part Deux

UPDATE 1900z: 18z RUC continues supporting the idea of busting out something from about Childress northward into KS with a good signal in the E/NE TX PH. I will leave by about 3pm and head to Canadian which is my target of the day. Just for grins, I'm picking Higgins, TX for the tornado intercept. :-) Will update from the road sometime after 3pm. Click on the Tailcaster link to the right and follow along. I'm pretty excited about it. I just hope something doesn't get screwed up like the cap holding or the dryline crawfishing westwards. It's been that kind of year for me. ;-)

UPDATE 1630z: Latest RUC (15z) guidance redevelops the surface low back to west of Springfield, CO by 18z with strong dryline convergence setting up across the I-40 corridor in the TX PH. By 21z, it moves the surface low to Springfield with continued convergence just east of Dumas/Amarillo and breaks out precip down to Beaver, OK into the NE TX PH. By 00z, the surface low only moves to Elkhart, KS and the RUC lights up the dryline from around Claude, TX northward into KS. Strong SRH values of 300 are progged from the NE tip of TX PH into SW KS along with CAPE 2000-3000. The nice dry punch/bulge knifes into SW KS and I'm concerned about another signficant tornado event unfolding up there. I'm going to aim for the NE TX PH though and work into NW OK with what erupts there. 5000 chasers will be in SW KS today. :-) I can't help but think the SPC will raise the outlook to moderate and use more stern wording in the 1630z outlook. We'll see. I'm also getting pretty excited for tomorrow too based on the 12z NAM.

In reviewing my forecast yesterday, I think I did alright and still would have made it. The dryline initially setup just east of Amarillo where a cell tried to pop up in the same spot three different times. The third time nearly had me bolting out the door. I have no doubt that it would have stayed rooted on the dryline and put on a show. However, convergence quickly waned and the cap won out, unfortunately. A cluster of high based storms associated with a lagging impulse came crashing into the party and screwed everything up. Even then, a couple of cells went stationary and backbuilt with a slow southward push. They popped some good mesos on them and a couple of hooks as they crossed the weak convergence zone (formally the dryline). So, that was interesting. I did get treated to a great lightning show on the way home. There were a couple of incredible displays as the entire sky would light up and erupt with crawlers and CGs all at once making it seem like daylight.

For today, the 1300z SPC outlook shifts the carrot-on-a-stick a little further northward into NW and W Central KS with a teaser outlook down to Childress. Even if I took the day off, NW KS is too far for me. So, I'll be focusing from the OK PH southward along the dryline. Everybody seems to be frightened by the big, scary cap from DDC southward today. I ain't skeered though. ;-)

As I wait for the 12z RUC/NAM to arrive, I'm hope to avoid the mass chaser exodus following the SPC outlooks and gamble on the dryline. The 11z RUC showed the SFC low in extreme SE CO today with strong dryline convergence across the TX PH...interesting. If this verifies (the RUC was bad yesterday prior to 18z), then enough convergence along with a subtle dryline circulation or two will pop up an isolated cell or two down in these parts with all of that juicy, unstable virgin air feeding them. Vertical wind profiles are in good shape to really get these puppies rotating. Again, they should be slow movers with deviant motions and if the dryline covergence is strong enough, they have a good chance of staying rooted on it.

So for me personally, the potential of chasing an isolated slow moving, behemoth tornadic supercell is worth the gamble. Plus, I'm getting more lazy, gas is expensive, and I have to be back at work tomorrow. :-) More updates through the day.

Also, I'm really starting to think that tomorrow (Wednesday) has some serious potential for the TX PH in my own backyard...stay tuned for that.

A couple of pics from yesterday....nothing too exciting though.

2007 Chase Season - The Sequal

UPDATE 2115z: Not too excited about hurrying up to get out there. Blue box just went up. Storms are lining up and becoming outflow dominant quickly in the NW TX PH. It seems much less likely now that we'll see any isolated cells and thus the tornado threat is pretty much nill. It's still possible, but a very slim chance at best. Surface analysis shows a N/S convergence zone just E of AMA with the dryline off to the west. Convergence overall is weak and 21z surface plots aren't sharpening up as much as hoped. As existing storms continue moving further east into the panhandles, they should encounter better moisture and strong LLJ, so some impressive storm structure is still likely...worhty of a local chase. :-) Headed out in about 30 minutes. Will update later on Tailchaster (link to right).

UPDATE 1815z: I'm shifting my target to the NE TX PH....around Pampa/Borger. Better mid level winds are there as well as better insolation has been up there. The RUC continues to suggest a narrow area of strong SRH will exist in this area as well. Dewpoints are already in the lower 60's and continuing to advet into this area. A tongue of 2000 CAPE is nosing up into this area as a result. Pronounced dry punhc now evident on latest surface analysis taking aim on the N TX PH into the OK PH. Pretty much an easy target. Will depart in a couple of hours.

It feels good to once again intently peruse data in anticipation of a good chase day! :-) I hate these long intermissions.

As usual, I'll try not to regurgitate another good SPC discussion. The only thing I'll stress are weak winds from 300mb on up. It is a perfect formula for outflow dominant HP supercells. But, it's also a setup for some really great structure. The tornado threat is conditional on storm type and motion. I agree with the 2% risk.

However, what is abit odd to me is that the 200-300mb flow is southerly and up to 40-50 knots. With mid level winds westerly and relatively strong sfc-850mb flow, it certainly makes me think that there will be adequate anvil-level ventilation as a result of the southerly flow at that level. Plus, latest RUC shows CAPE developing up towards 3000j/kg over the E PH and extreme S OK. We have a perfect setup today for deviant moving cells with SE movement. In fact, I'm betting on it.

What's more, the RUC is forecasting very strong dryline convergence which should remain stationary beyond 00Z. With strong CAPE and 30 knot mid level flow atop strong low level flow, we also have an excellent setup for a cell to root on the dryline and stay there with a slow S/SE drift.

With SE low level flow forecast, any cells exhibiting this type of deviant or quasi-stationary movement will have very favorable SRH as well as good ventilation resulting in more HP/classic hybrids...at least within the first couple of hours of initiation. If we can maintain more isolated cells, then a couple of tornadoes should be had today pretty easily. The question is how strong the cap will be today versus the strong dryline convergence. It could certainly go either way imo...from a couple of isolated cells to a large areal cluster of storms. The latter solution would spell disaster for chasers given the vertical profiles. So, cross your fingers for a strong cap. :-)

One other thing to note is the forecast track of a weak impulse traversing the E TX PH by 21z into NW OK. It is weak, but I'm not sure how much if any subsidence it would create across the dryline. My gut instinct tells me that it will only increase the cap abit more and storms will still erupt. But, it could also work against stronger updrafts keeping everything strongly HP. Not that this will affect my decision to chase today...just something interesting to watch.

I'm happy to sit here in Amarillo and work away until the hour of initiation approaches. I expect to make an E or SE jog on 40/287 where the RUC has the dryline setup...but not too far. However, the 12z NAM keeps the dryline further west towards the NM border. I usually side with the RUC, but the NAM might have the right idea. I'll compromise for now and say I-27. Still, Amarillo is a great place to sit and wait.

There are signs of initiation starting up by 21z, so I'll be prepared to bolt out of here. I'll update later this afternoon. I also will be running my live blog again too since I got my new cellular card antenna adapter. Click on the Tailcaster link over there on the right.

Fresh May 4th Pics

I've been playing with all of the pics in photoshop to bring out the better detail and color...although some of the color is different in a few pics. That's what I get for doing it late at night on some of them. LOL!! I really need to update my old version of photoshop and get some HDR capabilities. But, it did considerably improve my pics. I also cropped and zoomed a few of them too. So, what you see is different than what a posted recently. I put some makeup on and dressed up this very sexy storm. LOL!! (If I'm lucky, I'll have pics of tomorrow and Tuesday's actioin too). The full lineup is at:

http://texastailchaser.com/chases/2007/may4/pictures

Here are a few samples:

May Schmay and My Gas Rant

Yawn! Once again, May ends up being another major dissapointment for stormchasing. The upper air pattern went into hibernation after May 6. It is one of the most bizarre patterns I've ever seen looking more like July/August with anemic flow over most of the entire country except along the Candian border region. It's made even more bizarre considering the upper air pattern has been nuts since December. It hasn't been bad here though in the Texas panhandle with quite a few "Chamber Of Commerce" days with cool, crisp temperatures and really beautiful weather. We were even in the 50's all day yesterday with foggy/drizzly weather. So much for the official chase season starting May 1, eh? Just like the old saying goes with Texas Rangers baseball..."there's always next year" LOL!!

However, the upper air pattern is rumbling and coming to life again. It appears the last 3 weeks of May won't be a total washout.

Tomorrow, Sunday, has a little promise with increasing instabilities and a weak impulse setting off some multi-cluster storms that might reach severe levels. I don't think it will be worth the cost of gas to go play with unless they are right down the road. I'll watch it though.

Monday looks like a potential day for some chasing as the dryline impenges on 2000+ CAPE and we pick up a little mid level flow perpendicular to the low level flow. I like what I see right now, but will hold off on getting excited until more model runs tomorrow evening.

Tuesday looks like the big day...and quite possibly for the panhandles and SW KS. Much better upper support and flow with stronger surface focii certainly sets us up for some chasing. But, again, too many variables that could come into play like a faster cold front or too much convection could complicate things.

Into the crystal ball, Thursday/Friday looks interesting as the models have been persistent with a little jet streak and returning low level moisture/instability. Then, the models are now becoming abit more persistent in establishing broad troughiness across the western CONUS as we head into Memorial Day and beyond. Ed Berry and some NCEP discussions are pretty convincing to this amateur meteorologist that the models' trends for that time period have some merit. It would also fit well with what we have seen in past years that June makes up for a dismal May.

I've been watching the 300-200mb subtropical jet stream closely. It is still blasting across Baja and northern Mexico as it has for quite awhile. It seems "stuck" there at that southerly latitude. Climatology dictates that it will shift northward eventually (if it doesn't fizzle as we've seen too much of in years past). If it does shift northward into the plains in June, we could see an incredibly active month ahead. That would make me a happy camper since I live in Amarillo and historically, this area into Kansas usually rocks in June.

But, the season doesn't stop in July either. If Ma Nature doesn't setup a humongous ridge over the central plains, then eastern Colorado can be alot of fun in July. I've seen it before and have watched some really massive and brutal supercells roll across the eastern plains of that state...as well as Nebraska on occassion. With as much moisture as we will likely have to work with in July, it could be a great month.

Of course, all of this depends on the mood of the oil companies. Gas prices are going through the roof right now making any chase excursion an expensive one. Amarillo has some of the highest prices in the country right now outside of the left coast. It leaped to $3.39 here on my side of town. A note to anybody heading up this way....ALWAYS fill up on the east side of town...east of I-27. I've saved as much as 20 cents per gallon a couple of times.

I've noticed over the past 3 months that all of the stations on this side of town always change price on the same day and by the exact amount...always. These are different companies too. Somebody somewhere is manipulating the market here...as if that's a surprise. :-) We are being played for a bunch of suckers, but people are starting to scream about it. So, in perfect unison, those same stations dropped back down to $3.28 today. They do this and then in a few days, they jack it back up another 10-15 cents.

As usual, nothing will ever be done about it from our elected officials. They are bought and paid for. We hear excuses from the oil industry that the price spikes because of seasonal fuel mixtures, not enough refinaries, refinaries shutting down for maintenance (and why they choose to do this at this time of year isn't coincidental), yada, yada, yada. They try to do that with a straight face as they report quarterly or annual profits that exceed that of most third world countries.

But, there really isn't anything we can do about it. Our political system is so deeply corrupted, voting for somebody else is a futile endeavor in my opinion. it hasn't worked yet. The Democrats are more obsessed in impeaching Bush and getting revenge than they are in really addressing the serious issues of our country. They sometimes put on an act and pretend that they are upset about the energy situation to get votes, but as we've seen from them this year...as soon as they get into office, they fail to act....business as usual. The Republicans already had their chance and totally blew it. But, I'll stop my political rant for now. Just vote Libertarian! :-)

What I CAN do about it is get a much more fuel efficient vehicle. I have no doubt that we will see $4.00/gal gas sometime soon. Since I love my retirement accounts as much as chasing, I'm going to be getting a new vehicle sometime late this summer or fall. I'm going to be looking hard at hybrids and anything that can pop 35mpg or better. I figure by that time, more consumer information will be available as well as what will be rolling off the assembly lines for the 2008 model year. There will be ALOT of homework to do at that time. Of course, it wouldn't hurt to find somebody to to ride along and share the costs too. The trick is finding somebody to put up with me. LOL!!!

Ok...I feel much better now. Thanks for reading! :-)

May 4, 2007 Arnett, OK Video

Here is what I was able to put together. My video operation isn't the best since I started off with no tripod. I should have spent the extra 30 seconds to set it up. So, I apologize for the initial shakiness. I also seemed to have stopped recording for an agonizing 3-4 minutes. It happened right when a nice chunk of hail hit my camera handle near the record button. As strange as it may sound, I think it might have actually hit it! LOL!! I thought I was rolling the entire time I went back to grab the tripod. Anyway, that explains the time gap. Other than that, I clipped the better video segments to keep this down to about 5 minutes in length. It's nothing fancy at all and a very rough, quick edit. I'm getting lazy. ;-)

Smaller Windows Media Player format: CLICK HERE

A larger version in mpeg: CLICK HERE

A Day's Difference...Chasers Rejoice!

I knew as soon as I went out on a limb with a pessimistic long range forecast, the models would change. It is appearing likely that I'll lose a bet to Jay and have to wear a bright pink shirt on my next chase trip. LOL!!

The ECMWF jumped on this first along with the Canadian model. Now, the 12z GFS is joining the chorus. Starting next Monday, a strong trough comes onshore and by Tuesday, the models advertise some stormchasing nirvana to erupt across the plains. It is a pattern more normal for May and would continue the trend we've seen in the upper air patern for the past several months.

Details are of course unreasonable to try and forecast this far out. But, the important thing I'm hanging my hat on is the "trend" being advertised by the models. I'll wait for a couple more days of model runs to try and gauge the trend to weigh against the solutions offered. At least we'll have something to watch. :-)

From the afternoon AFD from DDC: DAYS 3-7... AFTER A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER FOLLOWING THE TORNADO OUTBREAK OF 4-5 MAY, WESTERN KANSAS WILL RETURN TO A VERY ACTIVE FLOW REGIME DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ARE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR 48N 150W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT NEAR THE DATELINE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP PACIFIC CYCLONE, AND THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TEND TO DIG INTO THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION HAS A NUMBER OF SIMILARITIES WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS EPISODES OF AMPLIFYING TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE WALLOWED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CYCLIC PATTERN HAS PREVAILED SINCE AT LEAST LAST DECEMBER, AND NEARLY EVERY EPISODE HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 115W THAN THE GFS RECENTLY, AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE AND AGREES WELL WITH THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 115W, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUN WAS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF. BY 12Z THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BY 00Z TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD THIS EVOLUTION LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT IT ACTUALLY WILL OCCUR.

SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...LIKELY WILL OCCUR AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE. BY TUESDAY, A PACIFIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A DRYLINE SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY, AND THERE MAY BE A TRIPLE POINT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE TORNADOES IN WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY.

Me like! :-) I just hope this time around, towns will be spared.

On another note, I'm working on a video clip of the May 4th Arnett tornado. I ran into a couple of snags with my software, but everything seems to be playing nice with each other again after reloading a few drivers and a patch/update or two. Watch for that in the next day or two.

The Dog Days Of.....May? (and some pics)

I am simply stunned by this morning's model forecasts. Without looking at the calendar, it looks more like an upper pattern you'd expect to see in July. A storm/jet track across Canada and the northern plains with very weak winds across most of the county including a strong ridge is not what May should be like at all. This is more astounding to me after such a crazy and wild upper air pattern into the first few days of May.

I keep looking out 10-14 days ahead, and there just doesn't appear to much hope at all for chasers south of the Dakotas. Parts of Texas might have a couple of shots as the weaker subtropical jet still resides pretty far south this time of year. But, most of the action looks to stay in the southern half of the state....well out of range for me since I can't take a chasecation this year because of the new job.

So, with the rest of May looking pretty much hosed, what will the traditional Memorial Day weekend into the first half of June hold? Well, by about May 27, the super-long range GFS keeps trying to move a big trough onshore to the left coast by then....but forecasting a very stubborn ridge and upper air pattern remaining stagnant. Pretty pitiful. yeah, I know, it's the GFS and that far out can't be trusted. But, I've found in the past that it seems to have an uncanny knack for being accurate with ridging. It did well with this current pattern we are in about 10 days ago.

There will still be alot of unsettled weather though as weak impulses meander around in the weak upper flow. But shear will be pitiful resulting in pulse/multicluster stuff. A few boundaries will also meander around to provide a focus. So, it's not impossible to get a few severe storms, but the majestic supercells we are accustomed to seeing in May are going to be a rare beast indeed...except if you can travel to the Dakotas or Minnesota.

So, once again, the "official start to chase season" sputters and dies before it gets going. I'm not sure how many Mays in a row this makes of an extended "drought" for stormchasers. That's why I always consider the official start of March 15th with a May climax. :-) Regardless of the calender or official decrees, I always chase when I can. You just never know what May will hold....and the past few years, it hasn't held much compared to March and April. Maybe I should have taken a few more days off in those months, but I was convinced 2007 would finally be a year of a normal May. LOL!! Ma Nature can be such a cruel jokester.

In the meantime, here is what a poor stormchaser does under a July-ish upper air pattern...my trip down to the Lake Texoma area to visit the folks this weekend. I'll do abit of Photoshop on the later to get the best quality out of them, but thought I'd throw them out for a gander.

Just north of Vernon.


A couple of Longhorns appreciating the aesthetic beauty of a sunset.


Transcendental Longhorn gazes into the sunset.


"Hey, you be messin' with my sunset meditation, man!"


I really need a macro lens, but this ain't too bad. Getting the little critters to sit still long enough is the trick. I glued this one's feet to the feeder. Just kidding!


A Kodak moment of a week-old miniature horse colt.


Wild flower explosion near Saint Jo, Texas. Wildflowers as far as you could see.

Happy Mothers Day!

Go spend some time with the person that spent nine months to bring you into this world and then 18 years (or more) to get you raised. :-)

Vici, Oklahoma Tornado - 05/05

Here are a couple of video frames of the night tornado just north of Vici that David Drummond and I "experienced". I use that word as we were close enough to hear the tornado. You can even hear it on my video. :-) I'm not going to have time to post video grabs of the 5/4 tornado until early next week. I'll be leaving to see the folks this weekend. On the forecasting front (pun intended), it still isn't real clear what next week will hold for chasing opportunities. I'm starting to get abit pessimistic. More on that tomorrow before I depart.

Anyway, here are the only two pics I got of the tornado as it moves N and NNE away from us:

Time for a bit of humor...and a brief outlook.

It looks like the severe weather season returns to W TX and the PH next Tuesday as a front settles into the area and a resident surface low and dryline sets up. I love these patterns because nobody is really paying attention to it yet because the GFS kills the mid and upper winds. However, good instabilities, boundaries and 30-40 knot mid level winds (despite model forecasts) will be plenty. Things get better after Tuesday. In the meantime, we are enjoying some reallly nice, cool weather in the PH.

btw...anybody remember the old promo commercials for The Weather Channel? They're showing a few of them in celebrating their 25th anniversary. I just saw one of the old "The Front" commercials. It's like a sports bar but totally decked out weather weenie style right down to little anemometers on the tables. LOL!! I loved those commercials. Here is the only links I find:

http://www.adweek.com/aw/creative/best_spots_90s/90s_167.jsp

Here is a "truckboat" David Drummond and I saw in Miami, Texas. It needs a name as the ultimate stormchasing vehicle. Why a chase vehicle? Well, it has an amber light right on the hood....old school!! LOL!! Miller OK should get a kick out of this one.

It's not an optical illusion. Somebody welded the boat trailer with the truck frame. It certainly looked drivable, but probably needed a little work.

Big Blog Update

The major news of course is the tragedy at Greensburg, Kansas. The 1.7 mile wide beast obliterated the small town of about 1500. Ten people lost their lives. This tornado will certainly be added to the dark pages of history along with Hallam, Jarrell, Moore, and Wichita Falls.


PLEASE DONATE TO THE RED CROSS

If you haven't already seen the aerial photos of Greensburg, you can view them here.

However, even in the worst tragedies, the human spirit and heart rises to it's highest level as people rush to help and offer whatever aid they can muster. Surrounding communities and first responders don't even wait until they are called...they simply react. In a world today overflowing with selfish indulgence and total disregard for others, it is moving to see such an outpouring of aid and assistance. I thought this illustration by Richard Crowson of the Wichita Eagle was perfect:



One of the notable heros in this event is Mike Umscheid who was manning the DDC radar at the National Weather Service office. He tracked the storm and was issuing the SVS tornado emergency warning prior top the storm hitting Greensburg. Read his account here. No doubt his warnings saved some lives as well as getting the word out quicker that Greensburg had been hit hard which got the first responders heading there quicker.

Team MESO was very instrumental in their efforts as first responders. They really made a huge difference from their accounts which you can read: Account One and Account Two. What an incredible story. I stand and applaude their efforts. These guys are the real deal despite being ridiculed and outcast from the stormchasing community not too long ago.

Some other stormchasers pursuing the tornado were ahead of the first responders in offering some aid and assistance. Dick McGowan, Darin Brunin, Derek Shaffer and Dan Robinson were some of the ones that searched for and assisted victims. A tip of the hat to you guys. Read Dick's blog report about it. He also has some video clips as well.

This event should serve as a reminder that it is a good idea to learn first aid. After my experience with the Anna/Westminster tornadoes a year ago, I finally got off my duff and did it. Being in a situation like that and not knowing what to do properly is a horrible experience. I carry boots, jeans, rain suit, spotlight and heavy gloves at all times now. I need to get a good first aid kit as well and just haven't done it yet. It's easy to put it off until an event like this happens. Plus, by knowing how to perform proper CPR is a good thing because of lightning too. One split second can turn a fun-filled chase day into one where your chase partner is struck by a CG.

Something I'm reminded of as I watch TWC coverage, one of the biggest things some of the residents there will want help with are recovering personal items. A great volunteer effort somebody can take is searching outside of the Greensburg area. It's a massive effort and one often overlooked. Just start out from "ground zero" and work your way outward. With such a violent tornado, stuff could end up many many miles away. Most of that will be paper items likely already destroyed by rain. But, closer to Greensburg, some more valuable items will likely be found...like photos. You have to be careful though as you might be perceived as as souvenier hunter (another reason to go do this to help prevent that), so be prepared to be confronted. It wouldn't hurt to check in with local authorities first. The reward though is finding something that one of the victims would cherish....it's all many of them have left.

The meteorological aspect of this event is certainly going to be a case study. I'll be sure to post some links in the future as these studies come out. I'm sure there will be plenty. In the meantime, this was a classic setup synoptically in addition to the surface parameters. I discovered an EXCELLENT synoptic and mesoscale study of violent tornadoes by three NWS meteorologists Chris Broyles (AMA), Richard Wynne (AMA), and Neal Dipasquale (LWX). Click on that link above for some serious forecasting weeniness. I discovered this by reading Brian Lovern's (VAwxman) blog that analyzes the Greensburg event with the same parameters. I highly recommend it.

This weekend also produced one of the most amazing and intense chaser video I've ever seen of a close encounter with a tornado. Since words can't describe it, go experience it for yourself and watch Joel Taylor and Reed Timmer's wild video. I've watched it several times myself. It is going to be the #1 video at the Supercell Deprivation Treatment Center. :-) I can't help but mention how the stormchaser police aren't saying anything negative about it either like they did a few years ago with David Drummond's close encounter and Randy Hicks and crew last year. Amazing how one event changes everything. ;-)

I also got to witness one of the most stunning and incredible tornadic supercells on Friday. It was nothing short of stormchaser's wet dream to witness something like that. For me personally, it was the perfect storm. I wish I would have had a wider angled lens to capture all of it as well as been a tad further north to get more of that awesome vault region. But, nevertheless, I feel quite fortunate to have been able to witness it...especially after my terrible fiascos this season.

As this week winds down and gets boring, I'll have time to really work on those pics to get better detail and color out of them closer to what I remember seeing with my own eye. I might even play with digital art abit with it and see what happens. I'm going to review all of my video as well and post some captures. I'll also include what I can get out of the 5/5 Vici night tornado encounter. The trooper's reaction after escaping it's clutches is priceless.

I also have a few other pics to post later as well including a "truck/boat" or as David Drummond called it something like an "Amphibious Stormchasing Vehicle". I'm sure we'll come up with some cute names for it and welcome all ideas. That'll post later this week.

Lastly, I've got two antenna adapters coming for my GC83 card, so I'll be able to run cellular internet again and my beloved GR3. I found out just how bad it sucks without it.

For the extended outlook, it ain't looking too promising beyond some central/south/east Texas chasing the next couple of days. I am watching for the possibility of an upper low moveing across the TX PH around Thursday. But, beyond is looking terrible. The GFS is even trying to spell doomsday for chasing well into the last week of May. Given the history of the past few Mays, it is certain to cause alot of anxiety in the chasing world.

However, as Bruce Haynie said many years ago, "Those who live by the models, die by the models". The GFS has been pretty erratic beyond Day 7 and flopping quite abit. The ECMWF, which has done extremely well this year as usual and often totally ignored by quite a few long-range chase forecasting, is indicating some hope in about 7 days as it tries to energize the subtropical jet to punch in and smack the ridge. It is also less aggressive with the east coast troughiness. I likie that. ;-) So, we'll see. At least it will give residents of tornado alley some time to recover peacefully.

That's it for me...for now.

Chase-O-Rama Day 3

David Drummond and I caught a night tornado north of Vici, OK. That was pretty wild as it was a mile or less away and we could hear it. Short on time, but read my Tailcaster report

Now preparing to head out the door towards Childress and preparing to play south of I-40 today. Short on time, so a short blog entry. :-) No tailcasting again today unfortunately. I'll get my cellular internet fixed in the next few days.

More tornadoes to come!

Chase-O-Rama Day 2

UPDATE: Now updating on Tailcaster

No time for an update as we are rushing to get out the door...already a PDS watch east of us. Will be riding shotgun with David Drummond as he does not have a partner....no sense taking two vehicles to the same target area. :-) I'll try to update on the road again today using David's computer if I don't break it. Refer to the Tailcaster link to the right.

SCORE!!! :-)

I finally broke my curse!! :-) Jay McCoy, Kanani and David Drummond and myself chased the big isolated cell that erupted in Hemphill County, TX and moved into NW OK. We made it up to Perryton, TX where we munched data. It became clear that we needed to head back towards Canadian/Shamrock. Towers were starting to pop up down there in an area that was looking rather tasty on SPC mesoanalysis as well as good dryline convergence...not to mention the Caprock upslope.

We got south of Canadian and a cluster of towers started exploding. Game on. We stayed with the first cell until it scooted off north and replced with a second cell which quickly started rotating. We took a gamble and flirted with the large hail core to punch north on a good bob's road that crossed the dreaded Canadian River. That gamble nearly resulted in getting severely cored.

After dodging hail up to baseballs (I could see some hitting all around us), we finally got east to Arnett and cleared the hail core and precip. We quickly turned south Hwy 283 as we watched a rapidly developing and lowering wall cloud...with rotation!! The structure of the storm was INCREDIBLE! A funnel quickly formed and the big show began. I hastily found a good spot to setup just as the funnel cloud started to touch down. For the next 20 minutes, we enjoyed quite a spectacle of a tornado. I've got some great video and pics below.

After it roped out, we played tag with until east of Woodward before calling a night with a celbratory dinner at Mazzios in Woodward. We got to partake of some breathtaking structure before we did though. MAN!! WHAT A STORM!! I want to do this again tomorrow. :-)

Some of the best pics of many I took:

Chase-a-thon

UPDATE 2000Z: No cellular internet access today due to antenna adapter tip breaking off. Might be next week until I can get a replacement...unless I find my spare buried in a moving box someplace. Anyway, munching lunch in Perryton on a wi-fi connection. Analyzing data and determining course.

Man, I have been going nuts trying to get things arranged to partake of three whole days of chasing nirvana. :-) So, I apologize for being out of touch.

Unfortunately, I don't have time to ramble about today's setup and beyond. I'm trying to get stuff together and make a trip to Dodge City, KS for today to play with tornadoes up there. I'll be updating from the road starting this afternoon.

http://www.texastailchaser.com/tailcaster/

Wish me luck! :-)

Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment!!

Man, today is the first day of May. Everything is green everywhere in Texas (think evapotranspiration!). I took a stroll at lunch and all of the familiar smells and sensations of spring are in the air. All plant life is in bloom and all the trees now have leaves. For this stormchaser, these sensations are deeply rooted with memories going back even to when I was a small boy growing up in North Texas in the peak severe weather season.

Days like this takes me back to when I was younger. The same associated sensations today are the same I experienced while standing outside in the neighborhood watching a black sky to the west as the anvil would spread out overhead. Strong, humid southerly flow would add to the energy of anticipation in the air. Something big was about to happen.

NOAA weather radio would crackle with the coordinates of a tornado watch. I'd carefully plot those with pins and string on a Texas/Oklahoma road map affixed to the wall. I would track and plot severe weather warnings with colored pins according to the warning. There was no internet with live data feeds back then...all done through NOAA weather radio. My only live nowcaster was the late, great Harold Taft on Channel 5 with his trusty radar and expert, grandfatherly vigilence. That was the only radar I had.

Once I determined my neighborhood was in the path, I'd grab a ladder and scramble to the rooftop and watch the spectacle of mother nature unfold before me. Sometimes I'd ride my bike to the top of a hill to get a better view. It was the best show on earth. I'm also lucky to have not gotten zapped by a CG. :-)

2007 is the first time I've had the same sense of anticipation and giddiness as a severe weather enthusiast and stormchaser in many many years. Being stuck in North Texas for the past decade, I'd suffer through each chase season with plenty of disappointment and frustration as the ridge setup early deflecting the storm systems into the central plains. Too often we were left capped... high and dry.

So, now being in the middle of the great Texas Panhandle combined with a very active 2007 season, I feel like I've undergone a rebirth of sorts. But, I'll stop there before I get too transcendental, wearing beads, growing my hair long, going barefoot, voting Democrat and smoking tumbleweeds. ;-)

Today, instead of the black sky to the west, I watch model runs with the same sensation and level of giddy anticipation. Enter the 12z model runs this morning. :-) Everything is appearing to come together for some extended back-to-back severe weather events. It might even start as early as Thursday, but Friday-Monday look great each day...at least this far out. The dynamics, moisture forecast, everything looks like it will be there. It's what I wait for all winter long and endure the teasing early spring systems. May is here and I'm ready to chase like they do on the Discovery Channel! A happy dance indeed! The Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment has ensued!!

Is it Thursday yet? ;-)