Storm Control Report

Chased after the larger cell near Plainview...and of course it died as I got there. It was looking good on radar too and just knew it was going to produce at least a funnel cloud. Hung around there and got suckered by an exploding updraft which quickly turned to mush. I of course was in the vicinity. ;-)

Finally picked up anchor and proceeded east towards Turkey (the town...not my feathered victims) where the updrafts were quite vigorous and regenerative. Awesome structure. I wish I had gotten there sooner as the updraft bases were hugging the ground. I saw a hook on radar a couple of times and some weak rotation. I can't help but think that there was a brief spinup or two as there ain't hardly anybody in that area to see them.

I punched the core and got east of it. Watched rapidly developing lowerings and agitated scud within the notch. I saw some weak low level rotation on radar everytime it happened....was interesting. At least, I didn't instantly kill the storm...it took awhile. I sense a reversing trend. :-)

I was glad to see that my forecast verified at least a bit. There was a landspout for 3-4 minutes 10 miles NNW of Earth in Castro county at lunch time. I could see the updraft from Amarillo while I was at lunch. The Gaines county cell produced a tornado too. There might have been a couple of more as I mentioned above, but went unseen. Yeah, I know...if a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound? ;-) Still, some pretty nice storms overall. I think the lack of a good boundary hurt today. I sure couldn't find one.

While sitting near Estelline trying to get a lightning shot, a couple of good ol' boys drove up and stopped to chew the fat for awhile. We talked about recent storm events and I showed them radar of the incoming storm. They even offered me a beer. :-) Have I mentioned how glad I am to have moved out here? ;-)

I got some pics, but nothing really worth posting. What about the structure shots I took?Well...ummmm...the iso was set at 800, so everything is just a tad overexposed. Ugh.

I'm not too excited for Wednesday as it appears the good stuff will be well out of range for me. Still, the vortmax is aimed on Amarillo, so might be some structure stuff. The big show looks good for this weekend and the GFS appears to finally be swaying towards the ECMWF. Stay tuned!

Today & This Week

UPDATE 2000z: Watching a small but intense supercell entering northern Gaines county SW of LBB. I know David Drummond lives close to there...hope he is able to intercept it. It has distinct low level rotation and a hook with 65+ dbz. It is moving ESE into southerly and even SE low level flow. Something has gotta be rotating. :-) For me, still watching the upper low approach slowly. Some intense, small cells pop up, but looks like vertical wind profiles are just too weak. Still, I plan to head S out of Amarillo in about an hour and see what I can see. I would love to be on that Gaines county cell.

A few landspouts/weak tornadoes today?

Upper low looks more pronounced on satellite this morning. Quite notable is the thin cloud shield over the NE, E, SE and S quadrants. In fact, there is alot of clear skies. This should allow some pretty good insolation resulting in pretty steep lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km and a bit of CAPE.....importantly the 0-3km CAPE. The RUC is showing an axis of strong 0-3km CAPE from near Amarillo and increasing as you head SE towards Snyder. The RUC NSTP is bullseyed near Dickens. Also, there appears to be some pretty good veering profiles setting up in this area.

So, the thing I'm looking for today will be boundaries. With so much convective nirvanna yesterday and relatively weak surface winds, there is bound to be one someplace. ;-) This should become more apparent in a few more hours. There is already some convection breaking out in a band from around Big Spring to Guthrie. This will be interesting to watch today because this might be a focus area right in the middle of the area forecasted to have the best overall parameters today.

With the clear skies up in the TX PH and the core of the low expected to travers this area, It hink this has just about as much potential today for rapid development of some storms. I see alot of parameters that have my interest for a possible chase within range for me today.

More later this afternoon.

Beyond, the models are really struggling from Wednesday onward. Wednesday looks like an active day for Texas as a pretty decent impulse comes across. The big show comes this weekend. I'm still siding with the very conistant ECMWF of a deeper/stronger solution. Still, I'd like to see some model agreement on this. Regardless, the weekend/early next week look active for the plains region. Hopefully the models will start coming into agreement in order to narrow down the timeline.

In the meantime, check out this awesome Jarrel, TX analysis/study. There is some really great stuff in here that I haven't seen before.

Stormpage Update & Gadget Weeniness

UPDATE: I've got the SURFACE data all fixed up. I've added the UCAR tornado alley overlays and updated the SPC mesoanalysis products..including looping capabilities. Check it out! :-) I'll work on storing the region in cache once you select it. Gotta hit the sack.

OK, I've loaded a partial update to my Stormpage Data section. Just go to my main site at http://texastailchaser.com and then on DATA at the top. I have update the RADAR section to include Cannon AFB near Clovis NM, Pueblo and Denver Colorado. On SATELLITE, I have cleaned up all of the links and included images for New Mexico and Colorado. I've defaulted it to Southern Plains visible images. My next effort is to update the MODEL section and SURFACE - SPC analysis. No timeline on that...just when I'm able.

On the Gadget Weeniness side of things, Jay McCoy, Phil and Kanani are going to be trying out some new technology for mobile cellular internet access through Auto Net Mobile. Avis Rental Cars is installing this and rolling it out to their customers as I speak. The sales brochure states that you will have internet access 95% of the time everywhere you go by accessing all cell towers regardless of carrier. Gadget cost is $400 with a $50/month subscription. No official word yet as to contracts or required subscription length.

I know that Jay and Phil both will thoroughly test this device and service. Phil is supposed to receive the unit very soon. So, hopefully they'll get a good field test with it this season. I hope to be able to report on their testing in another month or so.

While this device is abit late hitting the scene for the chase season, it is definitely something I'll be seriously considering for next season. It would be nice to get rid of Wx-Worx if the coverage is indeed as good as they say it will be. Stay tuned!!

Georgia Firestorm & Looking Ahead

The news for residents of Georgia and northern Florida isn't looking too good. Two large fires are still burning. The larger one SE of Waycross appears to have erupted again into two different fires. A report I heard on TV was that this is the largest fire event in Georgia's history. They need rain down there badly, and the forecast isn't looking good for any help there at all. Us southern plains residents feel their pain as we were enduring the same conditions last year. I hope that the exhausted and heroic fire crews there can contain it and get it under control. A little help from mother nature would be nice. Here are a couple of radar images of the fires. The green pixels are the fire hotspots where the densest concentration of smoke is occurring.



Here are some links of interest:

Waycross Georgia Newspaper

WSAV-TV Savannah

WTOC-TV Savannah

WALB - TV Albany

Current/Live Satellite:
RAMSDIS High Res Loop

Radar :
NWS Moody AFB
NWS Jacksonville
COD Moody AFB
COD Jacksonville

High resolution event analysis:
APRIL 20
APRIL 17

Keep up to date: High resolution event page.

Back here at home, a little action appears to be in store for the Rio Grande Valley, Trans Pecos and Big Bend areas today. Tomorrow, appears to be the Edwards Plateau into South Texas. Wednesday/Thursday really bears watching for my neck of the woods as a potent little impulse comes across the area. Timing is uncertain as is the track and intensity. Moisture and instability will be more than sufficient, so I think somebody somewhere is going to get a round of severe storms. Stay tuned as we get closer and the models latch onto it better.

All eyes are on the system advertised for next weekend. Here, the models really diverge on solutions. Again, I'm siding with the ECMWF because of it's consistency as well as keeping in theme with a very energetic southern stream pattern for the past several months. Given that, then Friday starts getting my interest with Saturday/Sunday appearing to be big severe weather days. Things will of course become clearer over the next few days for this event.

The GFS has been quite persistent in advertising a pretty active pattern starting this weekend and all of next week. It wants to carve out a resident western US trough....just what a stormchaser wants to see in May. :-)

I'm also cleaning up my stormpage data page. Look for some updates starting this evening with the Radar and Satellite stuff.

Is it May yet?

Today looks like stuff too far away for me. The upper impulse will affect mostly Oklahoma today with some isolated stuff along the front into W TX/Permian Basin. Nothing to get too excited about. If I lived in those areas, it would be worth keeping an eye on. Some pretty incredible storm structure can occur with such setups. SPC 1300z outlook has that general area in a slight risk. These NW flow systems need better boundary flow than what we'll see today. NW flow events are usually better in later May and June especially. Although not known as tornado producing systems, they often provide quite a sepctacle of storm structure and gorilla hail.

The upper air pattern is promising to be quite an active one next week with several impulses kicking out across the plains with some stronger systems the latter half of the week. Moisture/instability will not be an issue to contend with. There should be many chase opportunities for the next 10 days.

In the meantime, here is some serious SDS therapy for your computer..complete with audio effects and lightning!

Sea Storm Screensaver

I'm not a fan of "free toys" on the internet because of the spyware and other crap that comes with it. This site claims to be completely free of that stuff, but I still don't trust it totally. However, I might have to risk it and buy the full version. Storm porn indeed. LOL!!

General Ramblings

National Weather Service in Lubbock has put together a real nice event summary and survey of the April 21st tornadoes here in the TX PH.

Synopsis (with some cool pics): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/

Tulia Survey with lots of great pics and areal photos of the damage path: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/tulia_damage.html

Full NWS-LBB Public Statement: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/climate/Local_interest_events/2007/20070421_tor/pns.html

A great NWS-AMA report: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/april21_2007/index.htm

Onto other stuff....

In looking at the models convulse and spaz out, I think there is a solid general consensus that next week starts cranking up again big time. A couple of smaller impulses traverse the plains ahead of yet another large upper level low. I am quite amazed to see such a parade of strong upper systems for such an extended period at such a southerly latitude. It has indeed been a very very long time since I've seen this type of pattern. Here we are approaching May and Texas is still going to be in the thick of things. Moisture is plentiful aided in part by evapotranspiration as many places in Texas, especially the PH, are saturated and things very green. The past 10 years, this is about time when the ridge sets in and deflects everything into Nebraska. It's euphoria for chasers but not so good news for residents.

A system advertised tomorrow looked really good on yesterday's models, but this morning not looking so great for my neck of the woods. However, these NW flow impulses are notorious for not being handled well by models, so I'll be watching it carefully as they can also result in some impressive severe weather events.

After tomorrow, we'll have to start watching the smaller impulses before the big mamma upper low smacks us next week. I don't think the models are handling this interim transition very well, so I'm on a day-to-day basis for severe weather potential evaluation. I expect the models to have alot of spread or "noisy solutions" for the next few days as they gradually converge on next weeks' system.

In the crystal ball for May, I keep seeing see-sawing solutions for the general northern hemispheric pattern. However, based on how the upper air pattern has behaved for the past 6 months and what I'm starting to see as a "theme" in the models, I am really getting excited for May. My patience in not taking days off to chase in April may in fact payoff over the next 8-10 weeks. :-)

Onto other things, a BIG shout out and WOOT goes to Dewdrop for being selected as a participant in the upcoming reality show for stormchasing organized by the Twister Sisters. WAY TO GO DEW!! She and her hubby get an all-expense paid adventure out in the plains. How cool is that? I'm always happy to see somebody whose raw passion, fascination and interest in weather has the chance to do something like this. Experiencing mother nature in all of her splendor, power and beauty....simply to stand in awe, wonder and amazement instead of worrying about who else out there might see more tornadoes or get better video...is indeed quite refreshing and invigorating to me. It's why I got started in this passionate hobby to begin with and something I always seem to be working on to regain. I always find it though when I stand before a majestic supercell on the plains. It's a shame that there are those out there who want to ruin that experience.

Speaking of which, I've already warned her that the "stormchaser police" might swing into action since she is doing something they deem as an offense. If they do, they are going to get quite alot more than they bargained for in return. That's a guarantee. ;-) But, then again, maybe they'll just mind their own business and leave her alone. Let's hope so.

Lastly, look at this cool website I found compiled by Roger Edwards of websites dedicated to specific events: http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/faq/torpages.html I even found my Stratford 5/15/03 event there! :-)

OK...back to work after scarfing down lunch.

Eagle Pass Disaster

Unfortunately, 2007 continues rampaging through towns and cities. The latest strike against Eagle Pass is quite disheartening this morning. The latest details coming in are heartbreaking. Ten people are now confirmed to have lost their lives. Five of those that perished appear to have been a family in a mobile home that was demolished. Some links below to San Antonio and Austin TV stations reporting on this tragedy:

http://www.woai.com/

http://www.ksat.com/

http://www.mysanantonio.com/

http://www.kvue.com/

Search and rescue teams are still combing through the damage which appears to be very significant. I fear that many families were huddled in those mobile homes similar to the account I mentioned above. I saw one video clip this morning on the news prior to coming to work where a witness described a mobile home being destrroyed, but the family inside escaped without serious injury. Several mobile homes are reported to still be missing. It is likely that the number of lives lost will increase today. :-(

Two schools were destroyed and the town's sewage treatment plant is heavily damaged/destroyed as well. All reports coming in make it appear that this was a large, violent tornado that plowed through the town. There was a tornado warning 15 minutes prior, so there was time to take action. However, how many people received it? How many knew what to do? Were there storm shelters available? I'm afraid that the answer to these questions isn't a good one.

This being a border town, I'm sure many of the mobile homes were occupied by spanish-speaking residents...as is the whole town. It is likely that a good portion of residents do not speak or understand English. Many probably couldn't justify purchasing or using a NOAA Weather Radio even if they did. Were there even tornado sirens? After all, that part of the country isn't part of "tornado alley". I put that in quotes because although it technically isn't, that area along the Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo get quite a few large, violent supercells rolling off the Serranias del Burro mountains in Mexico and churn eastward. Some of the most impressive supercell signatures I've seen on radar have been down there. One even took out the Del Rio WSR-88D. This is a miniature "Eastern Colorado" and a miniature tornado alley.

So, there is the likelihood that community shelters for the mobile home park don't exist. The ugly truth is that residents there didn't have a place to go or time to get to a more sturdy shelter. Even then some of those structures were also demolished...including two schools. I'm afraid that this is a repeat of the 1987 Saragosa, Texas tornado where 30 people lost their lives.

A sad day indeed.

Storm Busters!!!

Man, I tried to intercept the lone cell that popped up near Lake Merdith, but it sped up and raced up Hwy 139 with me in hot pursuit. Instead of slowing down and rooting like the other good little supercells, this thing rocketed into KS before I knew what was happening. I skeered it real good!! LOL!!

I came back to catch the TOR warned cell E of Amarillo to Pampa. And, wouldn't you know it, it fizzled and dissipated just as I got to it and under the base!! ROFL!! I kid you not! I'm starting up a new business called "Storm Busters" where towns can hire me to protect them or chasers can hire me to stay away...highest bidder wins. ;-)

Jay, Kanani and David are quite paranoid now and have in effect labled me with a scarlet letter of stormchasing. My vehicle is now appropriately labled. :-)





The day was saved through with a GREAT steak dinner in Borger with the gang. If you ever get Jay and David together, have them tell you about their hurricane experience. It is freakin hilarious! ROFL!!

It's too bad I can't join the fun out there tomorrow. But, May starts up real soon and I'll have two months and about 30 chases at least to catch something. :-)

Today 4/23!!!

2020Z UPDATE: Really super short on time. Will be heading just south of Amarillo in an hour. SPC 2000z outlook is right on the money...good to see they finally shifted the threat westward. :-) It looks like a pretty darned good chase setting up...even an idiot like me should be able to catch a tornado today. I think I'll avoid trying to breach the eyewall though. ;-) Further updates on the road at http://texastailchaser.com/tailcaster

1515z UPDATE: Very busy at work...only able to take a couple of peeks at data here and there. Will likely just wait until late afternoon for any sort of data analysis. Briefly, I don't like the stream of thick cirrus canopy coming over my target area. This could also effectively limit the dryline mixing as well. Could also squash convective initiation until towards dark. Tough call right now. Not as concerned about 300-200mb winds north of I-40 as I was. Stronger insolation there is making me consider shifting my target to NE TX PH. More later....

I'm not needing too much coffee this morning after looking at the SPC outlook. 2007 is really turning out to be quite the chase year!! I certainly picked a good time to move up here. ;-) Now If I can just learn how to catch tornadoes instead of strategically avoiding them!! LOL!!

The only thing I'll add to the SPC discussion is that I'm not convinced that the dryline will move quite as fast or as far east as the NAM forecast from last night. I don't think it will be a significant distance however. Other than that, it's gonna be a great chase day. I like the E and SE PH in the southern end of the 1300z slight risk. This would be the E and SE TX PH. The big reason for this is better moisture and more importantly where the stronger 300-200mb winds will be to spread the precip further down stream. The further north of I-40 you go, the weaker those winds are resulting in something more HPish. I also like the forecast bulge coming into that area as well. Storm motions today will be alot more tame thankfully.

In alot of ways, this particular setup reminds me abit of 5/15/2003 where I caught the big wedge and satellite trunk. The lower level winds aren't quite as strong (that day they were screaming 30-40 sustained). But other than that, it's fairly similar.

Oh....and a pretty significant outbreak is on tap tomorrow as well from Kansas down into Texas. Oklahoma looks primed for a nasty outbreak. More on that later because I probably can't chase it because of work.

OK....off to work so I can sneak out early. :-)

Hunters Become The Hunted

For many years, it has been regularly discussed that with the increasing number of chasers on the road and around a storm, the odds were that eventually somebody was going to get caught by one. There have been several close calls, but yesterday, a couple of chasers took a direct hit. Their official account is at:

http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=12087

A picture of their vehicle is there with the semi tipped over on it. It is indeed quite fortunate that they escaped with their lives and with no injury. I wonder if that tipped semi might have actually saved them from being tossed and rolled? It looks like they are snuggled in there pretty good. Very very scary indeed. Despite my private personal issues with those involved, I am glad they are ok. I really am. I wouldn't wish that kind of encounter upon anybody. At least they lived to tell the tale and one they'll surely recall even when they are drawing retirement and their hair is gray (if it isn't already today!) . I wonder if they threw a whisky bottle at it? LOL!! For those humorless folks out there, that is a joke in reference to "Twister". Chill out.

This should serve as a very sombering reminder to all of us who love to encounter the most violent storms on earth: This is a deadly dangerous game of tag we play with mother nature . Despite running live radar data, which remember is sometimes 5-6 minutes old, and having alot of experience under your belt, it's no guarantee that something like this won't happen. I think with all of the available radar data on the road now, it allows us to get closer to the storms than ever before with increased levels of safety. It also cuts down on the margin of error if a storm decides to do something wierd.

So, the raging debate in the past has always been "how close is too close" to intentionally drive into the storm environment of a raging tornadic supercell? That's a trick question really. Just like amber light bars, decals and what you say or do on your video, it's truly nobody else's business to dictate, control, coerce or intimidate somebody else into complying with what one group deems as "the law"...something far beyond opinion. [start Dragnet theme music] Enter the Stormchaser Police! LOL!!

It's a free country and if somebody wants to drive right into the throat of a tornado and video it, they have the right to do so free from the vicious bullshit that rages from within a segment of the "stormchasing community". That includes "intentional" or "accidental" encounters. If they want to sell their video or make personal interviews ("Storm Stories" for example) and profit from it, then they have just as much right to do so. They have the right NOT to as well. Neither is right or wrong. But, I do hope we do get to see video from this event someday on Storm Stories....even "edited" for content. ;-)

The paranoia that we are going to get special legislation enacted against us as a result is ludicrous in my opinion. Even more amusing is the paranoia that the public is going to perceive us as [insert label here]. Well, guess what....they already do! LOL!! Just the public perception of us driving TOWARDS a severe storm already makes us [insert label here]. So scratch that reasoning too.

In the meantime, I'm sure my post will generate alot of comment and discussion (or maybe it won't)...especially from those that feel the need or obligation to rush in and "defend" their homies [flash gang sign here]. Nobody has been maligned or called out here despite any illusionary cryptic hidden messages you might conjure up if you tilt your head just right, cover one eye and read backwards. Save the conspiracy theories for MoveOn.org and Dan Rather.

I'm not going to let this break out into an all out name-calling melee or comparing/ranking everybody's chase statistics in order to be allowed an opinion on this subject. Read my disclaimer at the top of my blog. I already know everybody has seen more tornadoes than me in 2007 and that I'm a [insert derogative here] and I'm a bad chaser....blah blah blah. So save your keyboard and bandwidth...it ain't getting posted. But if it makes you feel better.... LOL!! The "blog posse" and "stormchasing gestapo" aren't allowed here, so go "terrorize" some other boards. ;-)

OK, I've rambled enough about this. We've got a couple of very active severe weather days ahead of us which I'm excited about...except that is on a workday for me. :-(

Chase Follies - April 21

What a wild day in the TX PH. As I posted yesterday, my original target was Amarillo to Plainview and I should have stuck with it. Hindsight is always 20/20. At least I didn't sleep through it thanks to Jay and Kanani who fortunately stopped by and knocked on the door. :-)

We decided to head down to Hereford and check things when we got there. We soon had some storms repidly erupting around us and quickly intensifying. We kept talking about heading south and decided it wouldn't hurt to play with these cells before we headed south to a larger storm developing and moving towards Lamb County.....which would be the monster to eventually hit Tulia. There's something to be said with a small, focused area of incredible diffluence at 300mb, eh?

After we briefly chased after one cell racing north out of Hereford, I saw another cell rapidly developing south near Dimmit and moving towards us. A quick analysis of all reflectivity tilts showed this would be a serious storm. We made it to Hereford just in time to take shelter from the hail up to the size of ping pongs. As we were there, the radar indicated pronounced rotation at tilt 2 and 3. At about that time, the town's sirens went off. Eerie.

A tornado warning was issued. The rotation couplet was pretty close, but just off to our west. The storm's base was still high and we could never discern any rotation in the base...even though the SRV tilts 2 and 3 were pretty impressive....nothing hardly at all on tilt 1. We then took in after it as it raced off to the north. We watched some pretty good lowering to the base and soon some pretty interesting chaotic motions. However, the storm began moving at heading 030 which slightly angled it away from us on a due north option. With it moving 40-50 mph and us having to take an eastward jog, we soon got out of position.

Through the rain and hail core wrapping around the area of interest, we saw something that might have been a funnel or brief tornado. It was very tough to make out anything discernable though. We encounterd some fierce inflow about that time up to 60mph in our estimate. We got our north option to try and keep up with it and encountered quite a chaser circus. We pulled off onto a dirt road, but it was one that everybody in that convoy decided to take. That was interesting as we tried to turn around and get back onto paved road and to I-40 in an attempt to get back into the action.

Another cell had popped up to our SSW and started opening up a good-sized hail core on us. So, we blasted north to get away from it towards Wildorado. Jay reported seeing a rogue stone up to baseball size. Yikes! We made it to the I-40 underpass just in time, but the hail size was pretty tame. At about this time, I noticed radar hadn't updated on GR3 along with warnings. ThreatNet was acting wierd and I restarted it only to discover that there was NO radar data. There was a ciritcal failure with the NOAA data feeds. It literally could NOT have happened at a worse time!!! I can't even remember when they had such a massive failure. But they did at that particular point in time.

So, we were data blind. This was the sort of day that you don't chase blind. We had no idea what the cells were doing to our south....what the ones were doing to the north...etc...etc. This outage cost us dearly as sitting around I-40 and Wildorado was as far away from the action you could get in the TX PH. LOL!!! Just as we got our data going again, Charles Allison parked behind me and came up to say hi. I had never met him personally, nor Matt Patterson, so I was caught offguard. :-)

We decided to head up north from Vega towards Channing behind the tornadoes there. We stayed behind for the rest of the chase because road options up here are few and far between. Kanani and Jay continued ahead, but the hail was cranking up again with another rapidly intensifying cell cranking 65dbz plus on track to overtake me on 354. I stayed back in Channing and decided to call it quits. I then heard that Cactus was calling for mutual aid and I tried a second time to make it east on 354, but blinding rain, partially flooded road, waning light, and a poorly marked road combined with my being pretty tired was just too dangerous. Thankfully, the damage in Cactus, while signficant, wasn't as bad as first reports. There was enough aid coming in, I didn't need to show up and complicate things.

I headed back to Channing and southward towards home all the while enjoying quite a spectacle of lighting to my east. I then started hearing how bad Tulia was hit. I haven't the news in Amarillo yet, but based on reports from other chasers and David Drummond, it's pretty serious. I was just there the day before and recognize the damage areas. Pretty sad and I hope nobody got seriously injured.

That's it. No tornadoes, but a decent chase overall negated by the road and data frustrations. My biggest personal gripe is that I had Amarillo to Plainview pegged in my mind before heading out. Another lesson of sticking to your original target area. :-) Tomorrow is another day!!

OK...light the fuse!

Not much to add from SPC outlooks and my previous thinking. The models are trying to kick this upper system out a little shallower. They are painting the area from Amarillo to Lubbock as a prime area. I'll probably hang around Amarillo longer today before heading out on the road. I'll target Plainview to Lubbock right now.

I will be updating live from the road on my new site called: TAILCASTER

So, follow along if you'd like. I'll be using this for the rest of the season for live road updates so as not to clog my blog...like a hog...in a bog...through the fog...errr...eat a frog...you dirty dog...errrr...okay... ;-) My last post of the day here....so check over there!

Chase Report - April 20 - TX PH

What a great chase today! Remember that minor impulse I mentioned earlier that SPC pointed out? The RUC was off on location, but had the right idea of breaking something out. I really think I'm gonna love living out here. :-) I think we can put away the 2x4! LOL!!

I grabbed a storm by the tail as it started developing WSW of Kress and I didn't let go until Canyon. Other teaser cells were really small LP storms with very little, ragged bases and pretty robust updrafts. I knew it was just a matter of time before a little better moisture worked in and a cell latched onto the other storms' outflow boundary. Soon, a broader, more solid base developed and the show soon began. It never looked ominous on radar, but that's what I love about LPs! And what a great one this was!!

Also, on a VERY curious note, I let the base of a newer cell that developed pass overhead near Canyon. It was prety cool looking and striated...but too close for a pic. However, I noticed this plane flying towards the center of the updraft. I thought I was going to witness a crash. It looked as if he was making a turn to avoid it...and then turned back into it!!! He kept flying from one end of the updraft to the other crossing it in the center! Then, right above me, I saw a bunch of sparks shoot out from behind the plane. It dawned on me that this was some sort of seeding project. He kept this up for a good while....about 45 minutes at least. So, ya'll keep an eye out for this. I really want to know what his purpose was up there. Don't be goin' 'round messin with my supercells. ;-)

I'll ramble in the morning about the BIG event tomorrow. Lubbock to me is a pretty obvious target...but up to Amarillo is also in the hot seat. It's the "triangle" As Jay put it. :-) I seriously hope that the tornadoes stay out in the open fields. Okay...okay...some pics from today!!!

Dig that groovy upside down convection or "big gorilla knuckle" on the left.


Come on, baby! Spin!


Oh....my....


Trying to barber pole and stack some dishes.


Can you say "stormwood"?

Ok, this is just nuts!! Stormgasm!!


There's some puddin' for ya! (with respect to the Outlaw Chasers!)


I cracked up at this sign north of Tulia! LOL!!! Yes, the thingies on top were rotating!!


Ok, this is one of the oddest and coolest updrafts I've seen. Check out the little needle funnel on the right!!


Last picturesque shot before it quickly fades away.


The new updraft SW of Canyon...the one that crazy cloud-seeding pilot played with.

Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond To Infinity!

NAM and RUC try to pop something isolated in my backyard by 00Z today. CAPE 1500-2000 forecast today here and a bit of convergence along with good veering profiles would definitely make it worth a gentleman's chase today. I'm not really sold on that happening though because the surface convergence looks pretty weak and suspect. Still, I'll be watching it this afternoon.

Tomorrow continues to look better all around with the latest 12z NAM. Although I'm still skeptical of upper 50 Td on the caprock, I'm reluctantly starting to warm up to the idea. I might be buying a few beers. :-) I'm still shying away from the PH as a traget area because the rapid and powerful linear forcing forecast looks like an almost instantaneous squall line with embedded sups/tors.

A quick glance at the 500-250mb forecast shows some powerful and impressive dynamics focused on the Lubbock vicinity by 00Z. The diffluence is "off the charts" and should result in incredible lift at these levels resulting in more violent updrafts. The overall veering profiles will be better here along with abit better moisture. I'm sure the various forecast severe parameters and indices available in the next couple of hours willl focuse on that area as well based on previous model runs.

So, unless this evening's model runs change signficantly, I plan on heading to Lubbock in the late morning and munch data while preparing my interpretive dance routine of the "Forbidden Sacred Dance Of Chaser Merriment". If enough members of the Tailchaser Interpretive Dance Troupe show up, we will perform "River Dance: Lord Of The Chase". I gotta find a sexy bandana somewhere.... :-)

Sunday isn't looking as good now, unfortunately for SDS sufferers in SE KS to N TX. Maybe some morning action for NE OK and SE KS on Sunday. But, next week starting on Monday, it looks like 3 days of hot, steamy, sexy stormchasing action for the southern plains...including Oklahoma!!! Yeah! :-) Something needs to happen there before we revoke their membership in the Association of Tornado Alley States. ;-)

The nice thing to see through late April is the TX PH and W TX getting soaked with repeated rounds of heavy, soaking rains. With such an extremely active southern stream storm system, I can't help but be just a tad giddy thinking about May and June. :-)

Wherefore Art Thou, O Moisture Laden Airmass?

The 12z NAM is at least trending back towards slightly better moisture return for Saturday. I still think Td of 50-55 will be the norm....plenty for some pretty good storms up here on the Caprock. With surface temps progged from around 68-75, LCLs should be in decent shape, but still struggling with higher bases. It really is looking like things fire up in far E NM near the TX border. The NAM wants to bust out some precip ahead of the dryline from the E TX PH down to south of Lubbock (March 28th anybody?) This is also in an area of very sharp diffluence at 300mb. But, unlike March 28th, there is little or no instability that far ahead of the dryline. If we do end up with strong insolation (a big concern of mine), then we might get some weak instability to make storms out ahead of the dryline more appealing.

I spent some time perusing the upper air soundings down to the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico and the Caribbean. It's abit on the dry side down there at 850mb. I did see pretty good sounding out on the Yucatan Peninsula though showing pretty deep and rich moisture. Hopefully that is the vanguard of fixing the moisture problem. soon.

Back to the dryline....the vertical wind profiles look very unidirectional and with such strong and rapid linear forcing, it looks like a classic setup of a squall line erupting all at once with very little if any chance for discrete cells. The entire vertical wind profile is parallel to the dryline. I can't even begin to count the number of times I've been burned by this exact type of setup. Yeah, a couple of embedded tornadic cells are pretty likely, but where exactly is always the biggest problem because you don't have much time to adjust your position to intercept before they go HP and join the squall line.

But, this is still along ways out and I'm trying to get too detailed with a chase forecast at this time. (notes the 2x4 being picked up by others..lol). Based solely on the 12z NAM which is now in line with the 00Z GFS with regards to upper features, I'm expecting I'll be heading towards Midland Saturday morning. That extremely sharp 300mb diffleunce and divergence ejecting just north of there looks too awesome to pass up.

For today, not alot of hope for anything to pop up. The RUC is advertising pretty good convergence in the N TX PH and OK PH later today. We'll see what the next run or two of the RUC says. I'm going to say about a 10% chance of something to pop there. Instability isn't really there, so it would be more of a photo op and slim chance for a landspout....but even then, the 0-3km CAPE looks pitiful at this point. It'll have to be close to home for me today.

Tomorrow however is still looking pretty decent. It's right on the outer fringe range for a worknight chase for me...especially considering I'm thinking I'll be heading to Midland the next morning. W and SW portions of Kansas and far E CO look pretty interesting. I'll look at this closer in the morning.

Sunday might be a pretty good day for E KS down to N TX. In fact, I'm really starting to believe this will be a bigger day for tornadic supercells. It appears moisture won't be an issue. More importantly, you've got westerly flow aloft across a front/dryline. That's always a "big day" maker. Dang it, I might have to come down with a case of chaser flu on Monday. LOL! So, my posse in Tulsa should have some serious action hopefully. I'm getting worried about them. ;-) My bud Glenn Dixon in Denton could be bagging a tornado or two in his own backyard.

It's just good to see an active pattern without the threat of an arctic outbreak behind it. Another big system next week keeps the show going. I'm not liking what the models are hinting at beyond the middle of next week though. More on that down the road. I've got a few buys days ahead of me that involve chasing and not crap like taxes, closing a house, etc. :-)

If you've read through all of THAT, then you deserve a reward. :-) Check out this cool little desktop toy: http://codefromthe70s.org/desktopearth.asp It updates satellite pretty regularly. You've really got play around with the adjustments though to get it to display and update properly. I'm running it on my 'puter at work.

Chase-o-rama

Finally, a little continuous action shaping up. :-) I'm looking forward to getting back into the action. Don't put away your 2x4s just yet. ;-)

Moisture. Yeah. That's going to be an issue. The NAM is abit pessimistic about it through Saturday. I really think it has the right idea. The 850mb moisture has been severely zapped over the entire CONUS and the GOM basin. It's really going to take awhile, perhaps 10 days or more, to recover. In the meantime, this bone dry layer will serve to scour out the returning shallow surface moisture with afternoon heating. I saw far too much of this last year, thank you. ;-) But, there will be enough moisture for severe storms and supercells. Tornado formation will be a bit of a challenge however.

With that major caveat out of the way, I expect to have chase opportunities each day through Saturday and possibly Sunday. Another big storm system is scheduled for next week too, so the active southern stream storm track looks to remain in place. :-)

THURSDAY: I think this is a sleeper day since SPC hasn't hatched the area yet. The NAM advertises the main upper system to eject far enough north to keep away the subsidence. It is throwing a subtle hint out there of a weak impulse coming across the TX PH by late afternoon. Good boundary layer convergence along the dryline and marginal instabilities make for a good setup with pretty darned good 0-3 and 0-6 shear and veering profiles. The 40-50 knot mid level winds will keep storms tame as far as forward speeds. So, I'm thinking there is a decent possibility of an isolated cell or two in the TX PH and/or W TX. Amarillo to Lubbock.

FRIDAY: I think this has a better possibility with good instabilities and low LCLs. Throw in decent dryline convergence and shear/veering...and it makes for a day worth really keeping an eye on. I'm not convinced that the upper wind fields will die over the TX PH and southward, but taking the NAM at face value for now, SW KS looks good....perhaps as far south as Amarillo.

SATURDAY: Everything really comes together for the main event. The NAM really tries to scour the moisture out as the 850mb jet really cranks up thus mixing more of the drier air down. Very strong dynamics aloft come into play from the TX PH and N/NE. That is the obvious area to play. But, it might quickly become a linear event in this area with such strong forcing. I'm tempted to look further south for a tail-end charlie setup and even better veering profiles. Those types of details will of course be more reasonable to try and forecast that morning.

SUNDAY: Departing system may leave abit of subsidence. But, a stationary boundary down around Lubbock/Midland/Abilene. Hints of a possible lead impulse out ahead of the next system make it a day wirht keeping an eye on. I'm not excited about it and plan on hanging out at home.

NEXT WEEK: The next big upper system is poised to slam Texas again. Tuesday looks like the big day, but this system might end up slowing down like all the previous ones making Wednesday the day. The GFS wants to promise better moisture to work with by then...we'll see. I'm thinking the GFS is overdone with it.

Today

I'm totally relying on SPC outlooks today as I'm way too busy with work. Plus, there was the thing with the new neighbors upstairs deciding to hold a big party at 11:30 pm. I won't rant about that, but will relay something funny. About 30 minutes after the police broke it up and things calmed down, I was taking care of some buisness on the porcelain throne. As I am doing so, a nice little cascade of water drenched me. They either let the tub overflow or their toilet backed up. Nice. I eventually got a good laugh out of it because well, it was pretty funny. :-)

I'm also preoccupied with trying to close the house. That and a lack of sleep with alot of stuff going on at work, I've had very little time to look at any data. What I did look at caused some puzzlement to me as to why the risk area doesn't extend further south into Central, S and SE TX with the core of mid level jet there and impenging surface boundaries. Oh well. Either way...too far for me today...even to Lubbock or E/SE of there. Even then, the 1300z SPC discussion was pretty conditional and iffy. The RUC isn't offering much hope either with meager instabilities....but the 0-3km CAPE doesn't look bad if we get insolation. It will be interesting to watch because cold cores and surface insolation and a boundary or two should never be dismissed. But, I'll be happy to wait for the better stuff later this week.

I'll be back into the swing of things tomorrow.

Crystal Ball Update

As we slowly recover from the late season arctic invasion, things are looking alot more optimistic for some serious chasing starting the end of this week. The models are at pretty good odds right now with significant differences with the regards to the evolving upper air pattern. I'm siding with the ECMWF as usual this go around based on previous systems it handled. The upper air patern has been really energetic and agitated the past several months and I see nothing to suggest it is going to settle down soon. With a blocky pattern trying to establish itself with a ridge over the E CONUS, I believe the ECMWF is by far the superior model of choice.

With that in mind, Thursday begins the day of an extended active period with each day afterwards increasing with better chances for severe storms as well as increasingly favorable conditions. Right now, I believe Saturday to be the big day in the TX PH and W TX..perhaps SW KS.

The nice thing is that we might just be through with these big, cold dry airmasses racing into the Caribbean. However, the very very extended GFS wants to do this around the first week of May. That wouldn't at all be unusual given the past several Mays. But, too far out to worry yet and I haven't seen any persistance in this scenario.

More later.......

DFW Tornado Radar Analysis & The Crystal Ball

First off, a big WOOT for my bud and fellow SDS researcher Glenn Dixon passing his Technician Class license today!! Way to go!!!! Glenn is making a grand re-entrance into chasing storms again after a brief hiatus. He brings alot of fun and humor to this hobby which has been missing for a while. He is quite the gadget and techno geek too, so I look forward to seeing what he comes up with. I'm kinda lazy on the technical gadgets...doing just enough to get me what I need to chase. Maybe he'll rub off on me. :-) He'll also be helping the Denton County EM folks as well which I know he'll be a big asset for them.

I put together a radar analysis of the DFW tornado (or tornadoes) event:

http://texastailchaser.com/special/20070413/

There are some truly fascinating things going on with the storm. From what I can tell, the tornadic circulation was associated with the synoptic scale surface low as it translates along the warm front. It would appear that the surface low and cool front trailing south of it moved abit faster than forecast. This would account for the rapid linear squall line developing and storms being undercut. With parallel flow aloft and weaker instabilities in the warm sector, storms would erupt from the frontal lift and immediately move behind it. Nothing had a chance to get rooted as the front was moving at a pretty good clip. The surface low was moving slower to let that big storm get rooted.

DFW was spared a major disaster on Friday. The worst case scenario almost came true. The traffic in DFW was gridlocked as the worst period for traffic is 3-6pm on a Friday. The warm front and surface low stretched right across the heart of the DFW metroplex. Had a large, wedge tornado developed like we often see with such synoptic scale setups, it would have plowed through heavily populated areas with tens of thousands of cars jam packed on the roads tossed around like toy models. Then, it would have moved over downtown Dallas and plowed along I-30 once again tossing thousands of cars everywhere. You can do the numbers yourself and figure out the fatalities and injuries.....not to mention the mass nightmare of logistics and communications as search and rescue crews try to reach the devestated areas. Our resources would have been severely overwhelmed and mutual aid would be needed from just about every part of the country.

The North Central Texas Council Of Governments did and impressive "what-if" worst case scenario which eerily came close to paralleling what unfolded Friday.

http://www.nctcog.org/weather/study/

OK...so what lies ahead? We'll, since we have been stuck in an early March airmass for the past week and a half, moisture return is going to be horrible with only modified air spreading back in this week. A couple of pretty strong storm systems will affect us this week with the one next Tuesday looks like a big event of S and SE TX at this time and yet lots more rain for Texas. Still some uncertainties with the track of the upper low, but I like the NAM solution so far. It seems like decades since I've seen such an active southern stream storm track into mid April. I've gotten used to the ridge setting up and storm systems tracking into Nebraska by mid April. LOL!!

Another system appears to affect my neck of the woods by Thursday with modifed Gulf air making it up here for at least marginal instabilities for th dryline to smack into. Recovery is again going to be a big challenge with the early week system bulldozing moisture across the coastal areas and the GOM basin. However, Thursday's system won't scour out the moisture which will allow some decent moisture return for the weekend. Maybe we can finally get into a typical late April pattern instead of the first week of March. We had another good snow event in the TX PH with about an inch on the ground at my place.

By then, the pattern looks more favorable for a good W TX/PH setup for both Saturday and Sunday with dryline and warm front in the area. Stay tuned for that because there are some strong hints that it will be a good chase weekend....no more work to get in the way! LOL!!!

TORNADO ON THE GROUND - DFW!!!!!!

That's the end of the play by play for this event. In listening to KRLD, this appears to have been a couple of brief touchdowns with the main damage around 121 and Beach Street. Tornado damage is relatively isolated and "light" for the most part with one church destroyed and one warehouse severely damaged. Quite a few homes have light shingle damage with a small number of homes with moderate damage. A Minyard's store had 5 people with light injuries from glass. Unfortuantely, the injury reported earlier of the man trapped under lumber is now a fatality resulting from a heart attack.

There is considerable tree damage in that vicinity with reports of a couple of cars crushed and one tree crashing through a house. There are sure to me more updates from Dallas County later.
For follow-up stories, check out:

http://dallasnews.com

http://www.nbc5i.com/index.html

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/myfox/

http://cbs11tv.com/

A slideshow from KXAS.....lots to weed through, but a few pics of the tornado and some large hail:

http://www.nbc5i.com/slideshow/news/11868335/detail.html?qs=;s=1;p=/news/;dm=ss;w=400

Pretty good video:

http://cbs11tv.com/video/?id=17465@ktvt.dayport.com


I was afraid of this today!!! Rush hour on a Friday afternoon! OMG!

(reports starting with most recent....all from ONE storm!)

8:43 PM CDT....EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE IN DIXON...BETWEEN GREENVILLE AND LONE OAK ON HIGHWAY 69...NEAR THE PATH OF THE CIRCULATION.

AT 828 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A VISIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR HIGHWAY 69 SOUTHEAST OF GREENVILLE.

AT 757 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ONE TORNADO WAS NEAR QUINLAN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

AT 750 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED STRONG ROTATION NEAR QUINLAN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF TERRELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

7:32 PM - KRLD....Haltom City EM requesting assistance from ham radio operators due to extensive power and communications failures.

AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE OR MORE TORNADOES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO REPORT STRONG ROTATION WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

7:17 PM KRLD.....FW EM repoting more damage to commercial structures. Channel 11 showing video of serious damage to commercial warehouse. FW EM still assessing damage areas. Reporter still confirming one serious injury of a man trapped by pile of lumber. Damage reports coming in ENE of Downtown Dallas....reuqests for aid coming in.

AT 713 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO NEAR SUNNYVALE OR NEAR ROWLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

7:12 PM: From KRLD 1080....FWPD reporting several damage areas, but they report no injuries. FWFD reporting small damage area 121 corridor from Beach St and ENE...no injuries but still assessing damage.

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE OR MORE TORNADOES. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CITY OF MESQUITE

AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF HEATH...OR ABOUT NEAR GARLAND...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

AT 652 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE OR MORE TORNADOES. STRONG ROTATION WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN DALLAS....MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH ALONG I-30.

6:54 PM Monitoring KRLD 1080 from Dallas.....damage reports coming in...injuries...several houses seriously damaged.

AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WEREMONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE OR MORE TORNADOES. STRONG ROTATION IS LOCATED OVER IRVING...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME!

AT 620 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND PRAIRIE...OR ABOUT NEAR BEDFORD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

AT 620 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HURST...RICHLAND HILLS...AND SOUTHERN HALTOM CITY...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 614 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF RICHLAND HILLS OR NEAR LOOP 820 EAST AND I-30...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

TODAY!!!!

1830Z Update: It appears that indeed things are progressing eastward more. It is definitely out of range at this point. LOL! An isolated cell in Haskall County is now tornadic...so it begins. At least I'll be able to armchair chase later. I thought I might have a chance to catch something near Childress, but that isn't looking likely. Oh well. Good luck to all out there today! I'll catch the next one.

1700Z Update: Swamped at work as I try to get out the door. I compromised and will be coming in Sunday. :-) Anybody trying to call or email me, I'm not ignoring you...just super busy and hectic today. My target area is still the same....focusing more on the "380 Corridor". I also have to have a conference call with my CPA before I finally get down the road. I'm not sure how long that will take. I hate April 15th. I just hope I can get down there in time and I'm starting to fear that I may not. That's ok...not gonna get bent out of shape about it. There are plenty of opportunities in the weeks ahead. :-)

A challenging forecast to say the least. I will start off by saying that I don't think it will be as big of a tornado outbreak as earlier thought. There will still be a few around today and the threat increases very late this evening and overnight down in the eastern half of TX as indicated by SPC. Storms will move into and enounter better instabilities and outrageous SRH values..particularly along the warm front. The main reason for my thinking that it won't be a huge tornado outbreak is lack of strong instabilities today owing to could cover and precip. However, along the warm front, there should be a few tornadic supercells until they move further into stable air and become elevated, but intense, hailers. The question today will be if a storm can root and move along the warm front.

Right now, my thinking is that the warm front sets up around the 380/I-20 corridor which if course is BAD news for the greater DFW area. I'm really concerned and hope that everybody there is on guard. I know alot of people there won't be of course. The level of complacency and ignorant bliss combined with the fact most folks are much more concerned with missing the next episode of "American Idol" than learning of a tornado in the next county is a recipe for disaster and thousands of stories of "it hit without warning". I certainly hope that today is not the day for a harsh reality check. Another HUGE concern is the big race weekend at the Texas Motor Speedway between Fort Worth and Denton. There are tens of thousands of people there and not too many places to seek appropriate shelter out in the middle of a large rural area. Man, that is a truly scary scenario. But, I'm rambling and ranting...so I'll move on.

The latest RUC indicates a surface low reforming rapidly around Childress by 00Z which is also supported by last night's NAM. The cold core aloft moves over that area creating incredible lapse rates and pretty good 0-3km CAPE in a narrow corridor along the warm front. Importantly, a stout dry punch noses into this area impenging on the warm front. The dry slot will have low level lapse rates approaching 10C/km. With the mid level jet forecast over this area, it is the preferred daylight target for me. It's not a perfect cold core setup, but pretty darned close.

My target area? It's kind of broad right now as I wait for further data to see where the surface features setup. I'm picking Childress to Abilene to Weatherford to Wichita Falls back to Childress. I'm leaning towards the NW part of this area closer to the cold core....Paducah to Seymour to Vernon. The trick is getting out of work in time. :-)

More later......

Today 4/12 & Armageddon Tomorrow

1400z UPDATE: RUC and new 12z NAM are reflecting my pessimism from this morning. It looks like I'd have to go as far south as Lubbock and probably down to I-20 to really get into the moisture and instability. It looks like more elevated showers in my neck of the woods. Unless something drastically changes for the better, and I don't see that it will, I'm sitting it out here and preparing for tomorrow. Latest NAM offers some pretty interesting solutions with the surface low becoming vetically stacked with the upper low. It is trying hard to setup a cold core event from the SE TX PH along the Red River to Wichita Falls. Alot of attention is also being deflected away from what looks to be a significant winter storm for E CO and KS. I'll update later this afternoon.

I'll be updating through the day and offer my thoughts as the day progresses. As I begin to take the first sip of coffee this morning, I'm looking at surface obs and....well....I need some more coffee. ;-) 50Td is confined to the TX coast with some lower 60's in the southern tip of Brownsville. However, the juicy lower 70's are hovering just offshore.

I'm waiting for the 12z sounding data to get a better idea of the depth of moisture in our source region. However, I'm not optimistic. The models don't really crank up the LLJ out over the source region today....only over Texas. That certainly isn't in our favor. Still, Td near 50 should make it to Lubbock by 00Z with mid and upper 40's in the TX PH. Better moisture return should happen tonight after my bedtime. The 21z RUC forecast correlates nicely with my pessimism. :-)

The other problem is cloud cover over the TX PH expected today. Right now, satellite doesn't look too bad at all, but models are forecasting rapid development of a cirrus shield this afternoon. I'm not convinced of this and even then, should keep the W TX plains around LBB mostly in an area of strong insolation.

In any event, storms should pop on the dryline and move NE/ENE and continually encounter a little better moisture (and I stress "little") and an increasing LLJ. As they interact with the warm front, they will encounter some pretty outrageous helicities with strong veering from 850-500mb. So, even with higher based storms, they should be able to take advantage of that strong veering and start spinning. :-) So at the very least, some very photogenic and beautiful LPs should result. That's good enough for me to burn a little gas. I sure hope that Barney Fife in the SE TX PH is ready to encounter more chasers. Don't be surprised if the Texas National Guard is fully deployed and waiting. LOL!! Ya'll be nice now. ;-)

More on today with 12z data coming in.

FRIDAY: Small dogs should take cover now and stay away from wierdos! LOL!!! That's a reference to the old Mr. Roboto when he made his debut on NWR a few years ago. ;-) I won't waste bandwidth regurgitating the excellent SPC discussions, but I do expect to see a mix of everything "weather" tomorrow...including some wrap-around snows in the N TX PH and NW OK.

The big show appears to be over Central and North Texas where tornadic supercells will erupt ahead of the dryline and particularly along the warm front which may in fact ease across the Red River into OK. I don't think it will make any further progress than that as heavy rains persist across OK reinforcing the cold sector. As a result, the surface low will track along the warm front which of course puts the Red River Valley in a high risk zone for tornadoes.

Given that the SRH values are off the chart and all other parameters being favorable, violent and long-track tornadoes are a pretty darned good bet. Storm motions will be on the fast side, so chasing will be challenging and of course, increses the danger even further for residents as reaction time to warnings will be lessened. I sure hope everybody is taking this seriously in that region.

Further NW, we will be recovering from the MCS overnight and I would expect an outflow boundary stretching along or south of I-20. Where the dryline smacks this would be another area to focus on. Impossible to target that yet as alot depends on the forecast MCS. Regardless, I'm thinking it is going to be tough for anything to fire in NW TX along the dryline until late afternoon when it encroaches into the Wichita Falls/Eastland vicinity.

However, I'm wondering if the models won't slow this thing up even more than they did last night. As has been the trend this year and as often is the case, these developing storm systems almost always end up trending slower. So, the 12z models are going to be pretty revealing in that respect. Part of that is wishcasting as it makes it easier for me to chase. :-)

I hope to be chasing tomorrow. It depends on how much code I get knocked out today and how early I make it in..depends on this evening's activity. I'm pretty certain I'll blow off storms too far away this evening as a result. But, as an SDS patient, anything is possible. ;-)

More today...hope to hear back with others' thoughts. Keep that 2x4 handy. I may need it. LOL!!

Forecast 4/12 & 4/13

An interesting couple of days ahead of us in the Southern Plains. I might also note that this Friday is the 13th. OMG!! ;-)

Latest model runs are coming into better agreement. The upper air system indeed is a tad slower and deeper than originally advertised earlier this week. This is typical result with such southern latitude storm systems forecast that far in advance. The recent arctic blast that assaulted us recently scoured the moisture pretty severely. However, the GOM basin is still in good shape. In fact, mid and upper 60Td still exist along the TX coastal plains. So....on to the specifics.

THURSDAY: Moisture return will not begin in ernest until the morning hours. This time frame will not allow a good deep fetch to get established. However, enough moisture return will make it in time to give us a little instability to work with.....perhaps 1000-1500 MLCAPE. As we saw yesterday in SW OK and in other similar cases, you don't need much if the dynamics are there....an important point I'm making.

Right now, the forecast is for 50Td to nose in towards Childress and Plainview by 00z. Given current conditions along the coast, I don't think this is unreasonable given that the 850mb flow remains backed and in sync with surface flow. 12z soundings at BRO and CRP indicate the moisture is very shallow. We'll have to see how much moisture returns at 850mb down there by morning. I'm concerned with the moisture being paper thin tomorrow. With 20+ dewpoint depressions, we are going to fight high bases....however.....

One thing that keeps just whacking me in the head with a 2x4 (reference my March 28 bafoonery), is the we will have a warm front and dryline intersection currrently forecast for the Plainview vicinity. With surface and 850mb flow from the SE north of this warm front with pronounced SW flow aloft, the deep layer helicities go through the roof!! Any storm along the warm front or moving just to the north of it will encounter values exceeding 500. They should be spinning like top!! So at the very least, some very impressive storm structure should result if nothing else. With the dewpoint depressions much lower along with resultant LCLs, a few tornadoes would be likely. With 500mb winds this side of hurricane force, they should be chaseable storms.

Again, moisture return is gonna be critical...but right now I'm liking what I see. More on this in the morning for sure.

FRIDAY: This has the makings of a significant outbreak. Friday the 13th indeed. All parameters for a major event appear to be coming together. So, I won't regurgitate the obvious. I look for a serious tornado threat along the warm front and track of surface low. Right now, it looks like the Red River Valley region. I also think from the Red River all the way into south Texas will get hammered big time with various modes of severe weather. DFW better watch out.

If you can't chase, it would be a great day to armchair chase with radar data in front of you. For me personally, I don't think I'll be able to make it due to work obligations. That's ok though. I'm not going to go jump off a cliff or seek counseling over it. LOL!!!

Stay tuned!!!!

SW OK Tornadic Supercell

First, I forgot to mention the nice little SDS session Kanani Foster and Jay McCoy attended last Thursday. I got to see their incredible video from March 28th. It was among some of the most mesmerizing footage I've seen. It was fantastic!!

I wasn't paying too much attention to the possibilities today, but lo and behold, Oklahoma submits it's first serious 2007 application as a member of the "Federation Of Tornado Alley States" today. ;-) A very impressive and dangerous tornadic supercell transversed the areas just north of Duncan and Lawton and along State Hwy 7 and 29. This thing was at one time cranking a couplet in excess of 100mph with a real vicious looking hook ~0000z.

With W/WNW flow aloft, a pronounced jet nose, CAPE 500-1000j/kg, SE surface flow, and warm front, the parameteers ended up being pretty darned good for a cell like this.

Here are a few radar grabs (click to get full image):

2347z