Crystal Ball Gazing & The Mars Volta

After a nice pre-season event last Friday, it appears that chase season will go back into hybernate mode for awhile. The latest extended model runs indicate that an east coast trough will establish itself starting later this week. With NW flow aloft this time of year, it spells cool, dry and stable weather for us. This should prevail for the next couple of weeks. There has been a pretty persistant forecast by the GFS of the upper air pattern transitioning again by around March 8-10 with the east coast trough scooting out and replaced by Western CONUS troughing. That is some true crystal ball forecasting of course by that time. Time will tell. In the meantime, enjoy some decent, relatively tranquil weather. I'll be breaking out the fishing gear. :-)

One interesting little event is shaping up for Wednesday. A decent little surface low rapidly develops near the TX PH as some diffleunce and divergence aloft spreads over the area on the nose of mid and upper level jets associated with the next upper level shortwave. However, all models indicate that Wednesday starts off with severely scoured moisture with SWerly surface to 700mb winds. There's just not enough time to pull the moisture back far enough into the TX Panhandle to make a difference.

With luck, something might fire in W OK or NW TX where the dryline tries to survive into late afternoon and where moisture will be adequate. But, it's also a classic situation of the dryline crawfishing rapidly westward and dissolving around peak heating. Of course, it will be something to watch as Wednesday approaches. But, I'm not excited about it at all. :-)

btw....for the music afficionados out there, I finally "discovered" a group called "The Mars Volta". I had listened to one of their songs back in 2002 and it didn't appeal to me. Recently, I've listened to several other songs and I'm now a major fan. :-) TheMarsVolta.com for their homepage. To listen to a few sample tracks, check out Amazon's site . I suggest the album "Amputechture" and tracks "Viscera Eyes" and "Meccamputechture". Off their album "Frances The Mute", the track "L'Via L'Viaquez" will complete a nice sampling.

Powerful Surface Low and Kansas Bust

What an incredible weather day yesterday around here. The wind was simply incredible with strong tropical storm force winds for most of the day. It has been a few years since we've seen such a powerful and large surface low pressure system like this ejecting into the plains. In fact, it is definitely among the strongest I've seen in the past 20 years. I have fond chasing memories of those years when system like this would occur early in the season. So far, it certainly appears that a very active chase season is ahead of us.

60-70mph wind gusts were pretty common along with scattered damage. There appeared to be a corridor of wind maxima from around Dalhart to Dumas to Claude where 70mph gusts seemed to be concentrated. Howevre, high winds and associated damaged occurred anywhere from E Co and W KS through W TX and alot of western Oklahoma into North Central Texas around DFW. Here are a few of the many storm reports...remember, these are non-thunderstorm winds.

1/2 mile S of Lake Meridith:
METAL ROOF PEELD OFF...STRUCK SEVERAL BUILDINGS.
SHINGLES PEELED OFF MULTIPLE STRUCTURES WEST OF FRITCH
FORTRESS. 2 VEHICLE CARPORT BLOWN DOWN IN FRITCH.

Cactus, TX:
UNOCCUPIED TRAILER ROLLED...POWER POLE SNAPPED

Hutchinson, TX:
ROOF OFF TRAILER BLOWN INTO A CAR WASH...NUMEROUS
STORAGE BUILDINGS BLOWN DOWN...2 STORY GARAGE BLOWN DOWN
WITH DEBRIS BLOWING ONTO HWY 687.

And back at my previous home town in McKinney, TX:
TWO ELECTRIC POLES AND SEVERAL TREES DOWNED. POWER
OUTAGES REPORTED. NUMEROUS HOUSES WITH SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

Some images:





I'd also like to offer my thoughts on why KS didn't have a more active cold core event. Even though a couple of cells fired up with funnel clouds, they quickly petered out. My analysis showed that the dryslot was way too strong and powerful and shoved an occluded front well into N KS. The inflow immediately north of this front was in the 40's. Very simply, the surface low as way too strong and powerful.

Also, it never appeared to me that this was a true closed upper low. I watched a strong lobe of vorticity rotate around the southern periphery through the Red River Valley into Oklahoma and SE KS. (which was associated with the dust plume and stronger surface winds too..interestingly). This created a distorted and oblong circulation center.

What a wild start to 2007! The trend and pattern we've seen over the winter months continues as we approach spring. I'm certainly enjoying it...from a tornado one day to snow and 60mph winds with a sand storm the next morning. :-) April and May could be pretty wild themselves. Stay tuned!

McLean, TX Tornado Pics

While not the best quality (especially the last one), they aren't too bad considering I was moving at 70mph shooting ISO 100 in a low light environment. I always enjoy re-learning all of the little things at the beginning of each chase season. I even got one "Batman" angle just for effect. POW!! CRASH!! OOMPH!! :-) I just almost pulled the trigger to head towards Hutchinson, KS to play the cold core storms today. I really like what I'm seeing this morning and have no doubt there will be some fun tornados up there. However, 500 miles through 40-60mph winds doesn't register too high on my fun meter with it only being February. I'm going to have alot more better opportunities this year. :-) Good luck to those making it out.

To see some other pics of the tornado with better quality, check out Charles Edwards' Pics. UPDATE: Check out his awesome video too. It's the best I've seen..including he local Amarillo TV stations and TWC. CLICK HERE

Tornado!!!

I intercepted the tornado near McLean today. It was a nice little tornado too with good contrast and visibility. My video was shot from the dashcam and didn't get the better parts of the tornado because of the angle to my north. The edge of the windshield got in the way. I was on a long stretch of I-40 where there are no off-ramps...perfectly timed with the tornado. LOL!! If I hadn't stopped earlier to screw around with equipment, that 5 minutes would have put me in excellent position. But alas.....

I did fire off alot of stills though. I'll post them later if they came out ok. I can at least grab a few video shots if nothing else. I saw a few other smarter chasers that had setup with a great view on the north side of I-40. I passed them by going eastbound while cussing out the lack of any off-ramps for a hundred miles. ;-)

The storms were pretty impressive for late February. Nice, explosive updrafts with some pretty solid cumuliform. With movement 40-50mph, it was tough to stay with them and intercept. But, it wasn't too bad. I stayed pretty much on the back side of these storms which was key today believe it or not. I could see the updraft of the storm get that notch in it and begin to take on a corkscrew appearence. It was pretty cool. I got to see the entire life cycle with good visual. It remained a funnel for awhile before finally snaking towards the ground. I was able to crest a hill with a great view north and could see the "debris" cloud as it briefly touched down. It was mostly just spray from the wet ground...maybe some dirt and grass. It was pretty weak.

Anyway, the microwave just dinged. I'll post what images I have tomorrow. What a great way to start 2007!!!! It is also my first ever February tornado. I love living in Amarillo! :-)

DAY 1 UPDATES

2210Z - My forecast initiation time was dead on :-) Storms are now exploding east of Plainview near Quitaque. I'm out the door towards Childress.

2125Z - Red Box is up for SW KS down into W/NW TX. ffI'll likely be heading down towards Childress/Clarendon where it appears the better moisture is residing. It's having a tough time making it up the caprock, but as winds continue to back, that may change. Right now though, I'm going for the current trend. I'll adjust if necessary. Hmmm.....satellite looking interesting :-) The Red Box:

1548Z - My previous suspicions of the dryling setting up further west are verifying. Latest NAM run supports the earlier and current RUC forecast of holding up the dryline closer to the I-27 corridor through 00Z.....right on top of Amarillo. They are also abit weaker on moisture return, but lower 50's just ahead of the dryline still seem likely even up on the caprock. I'm watching a good moisture fetch coming up through Midland/Sweetwater/Lubbock with mid to upper 50Td there. 60's are up to Del Rio/Junction/Temple. As usual, the mixing battle will ensue later today to offset the richer transport of moisture because it is relatively shallow....however, Del Rio 12z sounding showed it to be a little deeper.

All of this just to say that I expect lower 50Td to setup here in the PH near the dryline per model forecasts. Resultant CAPE should get to 1000j/kg with forecast SREH reaching "stormwoodie" proportions exceeding 300. Impressive mid and upper jets should move over the dryline this afternoon with a pronounced left exit region over the TX PH creating strong diffluence and resultant lift. So far, extensive cloudiness is minimal across the PH with clear skies in the northern half. Satellite does show that the thick stratus is remaining confined further south along with the thicker mid and high level clouds. So, moderate to strong insolation appear likely in the PH through afternoon. Nice!!!

The timing of convective initiation is still a concern as it will be closer to sunset. However, my thinking is that by 22z, something should start popping. We shall see. :-) More updates this afternoon after persuing more data and the SPC 1630Z outlook.

Today's Forecast - AM

A quick scan over the RUC model as well as surface analysis shows things are progressing as expected. The 50Td line is impending on the TX PH area right now with a pretty decent moisture fetch on it's heels. I agree with the SPC that thick stratus out over the warm sector is going to complicate things. The RUC is trying to delay everything a few hours and kick off the show right at sunset and overnight.

Even though the SPC is hitting the tornado threat hard overnight, I'm skeptical of there being enough instability to support a hatched outlook area. We'll see of course. More data later this morning should help clarify this. If we see some clearning in the warm sector today, then I would raise my tornado threat concern more.

One thing I'm wtching closely is that the dryling may setup further west than current conventional thinking. This is based on the RUC forecast of course, so I want to see the other models in a few hours to see what the consensus is..along with newer RUC runs. Even if stuff fires after dark, I'll be out there if for no other reason than to get some lightning shots.

Are You Ready To Rumble?

I'll be watching things unfold from work and prepare to jump on I-40 or 287 tomorrow afternoon if things appear to come together. I do like the moisture surge up the Rio Grande Valley right now with 51Td at Del Rio and 62 at Laredo. Not a bad setup for February. Maybe this is a harbinger of things to come. :-) SPC is freaking out over it too.

2007 Inaugural Chase Countdown

Latest 12z model runs are speeding this system up a tad. This sets up an opportunity for me to chase closer to home in the Panhandle on Friday. I particularly like the mid and upper jets punching into my neck of the woods with pretty strong diffluence in relation to the left exit region of the jets. As a result, a surface low should develop and rapidly deepen on Friday nearby too. The GFS tries to set it up in E CO, but I think it will be closer to Dalhart. An attendant stong dryline will trail from the low across my backyard. All of the dynamics and focusing mechanisms will be in place.

However, as expected in late February, moisture return this far up the Caprock Escarpment will be tough. But, there is a good supply of 60Td all over the GOM basin poised to run north courtesy with the LLJ. I think at least 50Td will make it to the dryline up here. I'll become more convinced with the next couple of model runs and watching the moisture return Thursday evening.

Should we get some marginal moisture and a little resultant CAPE, then some pretty stout storms should erupt in my new home territory. My best guess at this early stage would be anywhere from Canadian to Clarendon. That is a leisurely drive for me down I-40 :-)
Storm motions will be pretty swift for unrooted storms. If the moisture is deep enough, then there is always the possibility of a storm rooted along the dryline as I believe it will not much at all for several hours while the surface low rapidly deepens on Friday. But, again, I normally look for better moisture/CAPE for such persistant rooting updrafts.

Saturday looks like a real mess as far as I'm concerned. The upper low and surface low are close enough in proximity that the Jon Davies Cold Core parameters will come into play. So, the surface low will be it in my opinion...and a long shot at that with pretty fast storm motions. I see a big, honking squall line blasting through OK/E KS/AR/MO. I think Friday will be the better opportunity for more discreet and chaseable storms.

We shall see. There is still a large window of variation along with several model runs before then. The upper system is still well offshore at this point after all. :-)
Stay tuned.......

Chase Pre-Season & The Goredito Files

After somebody left open the north pole's freezer door for the past couple of months, I'm quite happy to be enjoying some warm weather of late. The upper air pattern shift is fully underway. With that, a pretty good opportunity for a severe weather event is looming on the horizon for Friday/Saturday from the southern plains into the Mississippi valley area. Although alot of "chase wood" is running rampant among chasers everywhere, this is going to be a fast moving system with fast moving storms. Been there, done that. Plus, this is a large, dynamic system that has "raging squall line" written all over it. But, having chase wood myself, I will most likely be out there amidst mother nature's chaos much like a moth to a porch light. I can't help it. LOL!

From my experience, this type of system and setup will most likely result in most all of the warm sector being socked in with clouds from very strong and abundant WAA. The exception would be closer to the upper and surface lows where I think a good dryslot may emerge over the warm sector. Too early to get silly with details of course with such a day 1 analysis, but just my preliminary thoughts. Plus, as I mentioned, the mid and upper winds will scoot storms off at a rapid clip...likely 50+mph. This is another reason to play things further north near the surface low. And, more importantly, it looks like it could be a classic setup for a "John Davies Cold Core Event"....even though this is not a climatologically favored time of year for that.

Right now, the models seem to have a good handle on the strength and track of the upper system. However, as with most big systems like this, the models almost always try to kick everything out too fast. It will be interesting to watch the model trends as we approach Friday. One important note is that the GOM basin for our moisture source seems to be in really good shape. So, moisture return should be rapid and pretty good for late February. The models seem to be in good agreement with this as well.

If the models are in fact abit too fast with this system and it slows down, then I might find myself right in the middle of initiation in the TX PH where the best upper dynamics will focus along a dryline and near the surface low. My wishcasting has me picking up the surface low here near home and riding it into SW/S KS on Saturday. We'll see. At least it will be nice to start watching the models regularly again. LOL!

Oh, and from the files of "those nutty liberals" or as I like to say "Goreditos", I see Al Gore is being considered for an honorary Doctorate degree for his "work in climatology. WTF? ROFL!! Wait, it gets even better. The whacked out looney liberals that are pushing for this are quoted as saying: "He's in the news and is a legitimate expert on a pressing issue of global concern, climate change, so this level of interest is understandable..." and "University spokesperson Daniel Wolter said since Gore is an expert in the subject, several colleges at the University have expressed interest in inviting Gore to speak on campus." Wow. I wonder if I can get an honorable doctorate in meteorology? :-)

I wonder if Mr. Gore will ever have the opportunity for an open debate on this subject matter to discuss and support all of his "evidence"? The problem is, he has never once defended his "evidence" and his claims/statements in an open scientific forum where such stuff is scrutinized. The only thing I've seen him and his worshippers retort is that if you don't agree with him, then you are a no better than Holocaust deniers. Nanny nanny boo boo. LOL! So much for true science, eh?

Again, I'm not disputing that we are experiencing a warming trend in our overall climate. I am disputing what Gore and other global alarmists are attributing as the cause being entirely manmade. We have seen such cycles over the past million years according to legtimate research over the decades. My personal favorite is that at one time, the Vikings were farming in parts of Greenland. If such alarmists were to open their eyes and minds beyond the last 100 years, they might see their own lunacy....as if mother nature hasn't already done that in the past 9 months. :-)

A Bit Chilly

The thermometer at my apartment showed 5F this morning which corresponds to surronding stations. Hereford was 2F. After getting a fresh layer of 2-3 inches of snow yesterday, I can honestly say it feels like winter. ;-) The official tally for Amarillo so far this season is about 24 inches. This is 9 inches above normal. The chilly weather zapped my battery this morning. Fortunately, my neighbor gave me a jump. I picked up a new battery which is sitting in my vehicle while I wait for the air temperature to near 20F ;-)

I love it. I can actually use some of my winter gear for once. Since I don't have to battle rush hour, commuting to and from work ain't no big deal. Driving on snow is different from ice. However, there are still idiots even here that don't understand the law of physics concerning reduced friction between rubber and ice/snow related to inertia. In an 18 hour period when the snow cranked up, there were about 120 wrecks in the Amarillo area. Of course, DFW would have had that in a 5 mile radius within 2 hours. ;-) For the most part, people here drive sensibly. They also don't shut everything down and raid the grocery stores wiping the shelves clean. I've been able to find a steady supply of Strawberry Poptarts and Hot Chocolate. ;-)

The hysterical manmade global warming alarmists who hyperventilate with each and every weather event deviating from "normal" climatology are looking more ridiculous and silly with time. As if the complete lackluster hurricane season wasn't enough to cause some serious introspection amongst them, mother nature keeps contradicting their irrational fear mongering with ever increasing frequency.

Although the winter season was a little late arriving here in North America, it as with a vengence and setting various records from low temperatures to snowfall in places. It just further proves my point that liberals reject reality replacing it with their version. I have yet to hear one rebuttal from the alarmists concerning the global warming era when the Vikings were raising crops in Greenland. Weren't these same liberals and the media shrieking about global cooling and an impending doomsday ice age just a couple of decades ago? Yep.

Anyway, political ranting aside, I continue settling in quite nicely. I still can't believe I'm actually living here. As I get into a new routine, I'm starting to feel more at home as familiarity with everything grows. My Texas drawl doesn't sound foreign anymore with various conversations I have. It may have actually increased a tad. It's great to say "ya'll" and "howdy" without getting a negative reaction from people or a "what did you say?". LOL!!

My eyes continually look ahead on the calendar in anticipation of the warm season and the majestic supercells it heralds. I've got my computer stuff setup now with my last step of setting up the media center for all my chase-related electronic gadgets. That along with a few more boxes should be completed by this weekend.

Looking at the computer models, it certainly appears that the upper air configuration will be shifting significantly starting next week. It looks like we'll see a warmer period with a continued active storm track across the southern plains. In fact, we certainly could be looking at some severe weather possibilities. The last half of February looks pretty interesting in the crystal ball. Stay tuned.

Home In Amarillo!!!

I finally landed here in Amarillo!! The move I had planned for Friday was delayed because the U-Haul (I now refer to them as "Screw-U") truck I got had no working defroster on it. It was a GM truck with only 15,000 miles on it, but the entire electrical system for heating/air system was on the fritz. The technician finally wired it directly to the fuse box. To "turn it on" I had to open the hood and connect two wires. Nice. At least it got me here. I rolled into the apartments just before midnight. Exhaustion is an understatement. Fortunately, my folks drove my vehicle up here and were a big help getting moved in Saturday. I don't know how I would have done it without them.

Everything fit into my apartment...barely. It'll be nice once everything is unpacked and setup. I got a covered parking spot right in front of my door. Sweet! I'm pretty happy with it as temporary living quarters. It is still an apartment though and I'll be actively hunting for a house before long. My cat did much better than I thought on the trip up here and getting used to the apartment. She adjusted very quickly and within a couple of hours, was pestering me to play ball. No upchucking or major pschizoid episodes.

I'll have high-speed internet and cable TV by this evening. Yeah! I can finally start monitoring the weather again. I awoke Sunday morning to heavy ice fog which was cool. All of the trees were coated in a white, powdery glaze..not the clear glaze associated with freezing drizzle. It was dazzling when the sun peeked out. I didn't have my camera handy. :-( Today, temps are approaching 60F and the last visible traces of snow are about gone. Tomorrow...approaching 70F! Bring on the dryline!! :-)

I am now 5 miles from work with a 10 minute commute. This is completely astounding considering my previous 90-120 minute one-way commutes in Dallas just to get 24 miles. After nearly two decades of the DFW metromess nightmare commutes, I feel like I've broken free from a third-world prison. :-)

During my move, Florida was devestated by tornadoes. I was shocked to watch the news this morning and see the amount of devestation. With 20 people parishing, I can't begin to fathom the shock and grief of those affected by this tragedy. Unbelievable. That poor state has been under the gun for the past few years. Please consider donating to the Red Cross to help them out.

That's it for now from the heart of the Texas Panhandle. As we roll well into February, I'm already eyeing the calendar in eager anticipation of the dryline awakening from it's winter slumber and setting up house right over my head...along with the parade of ejecting upper level impulses that always deflect well away from North Texas. No longer will I have to watch in agony as tornadic supercells repeatedly erupt in the Panhandle while 300 miles away, I bask under the cap or ridging around DFW. I will be right in the middle of the "Panhandle Magic"...exactly where I want to be. :-) Look for alot of pics and video this year!!