Moving Day Forecast - Amarillo

Ugh. I hate moving anyways, but doing it in the deep freeze sucks. At least I won't have to worry about heat stroke. :-) The good news is no major winter storm to contend with.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY...COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15.

National Storm Conference

Now, if I can make it back down here, this looks to be a good event.

Amarillo Countdown

Everything is a go for move day. I locked in a 2/2 apartment with 1079 square feet. That should accomodate my junk...barely lol. After considering and looking at rent houses and condos, I went with an apartment because of the cat and 6 month lease. That is plenty of time to settle into the new job and gives me time to look around and wait for the perfect opportunity and jump on it without having to wait a year on the other property types. Besides, rent houses are pretty thin in Amarillo and most everything available is in a bad part of town, junk, or way out of my price range.

It's in a very quiet part of the complex which is nestled in a realy nice neighborhood in the SW part of Amarillo and plenty of trees for shade and importantly on the first floor. I also have reserved covered parking very close to the door. All of this stuff is important when you get to be an old fart. ;-) The floor plan is good and overall the best choice out of many apartments I looked at. It's also an older complex when they used to build them more solidly compared to more "modern" ones. This helps on utilities AND peace and quiet. But, they are well maintained and acceptable for my temporary needs. Oh yeah....only $760/month. LOL! A similar apartment in DFW is easily more than $900.

The 8-10 inches of snow that had previously blanketed Amarillo was pretty much intact when I first got there. Main streets were good after being plowed. Side streets were packed solid and abit tricky. Thank goodness for front wheel drive. What amazed me was seeing the huge mounds of snow piled up everywhere in the various parking lots. Some were 15 feet tall. It's a real logistics problem in dealing with that much. Still, they seemed prepared for it. Since I'm about 10 minutes from work, it's not a problem. :-)

I got a good chance to tour Amarillo as well...even went to the mall there. I was impressed by all the popular chain stores there...everything you want. Just about every popular restaurant chain is there (including Hooters! Yeah!). I felt like I was in a mini-Plano...without the obnoxious yankee attitudes and personas. Instead, politeness and common courtesy are the rule rather than the exception. Nobody is trying to run over everybody else in traffic or the parking lots. Every single clerk or public-facing person was very nice and friendly....with the exception of a couple. No place is perfect. :-) Still, it's like night and day between DFW...which is something I knew but reinforced solidly now.

Maniac drivers and road rage is non-existent there. 98% of the time, everybody is driving patiently and doing things like using their turn signals and not running red lights. Rush hour? ROFLMAO! There ain't none except on a few main streets which compared to a Dallas street at 2am. I-40 doesn't even get "heavy". I was running around during "rush hour" morning and evening and it was very hard to tell. :-)

I also got a more detailed look at the economic growth planning up there. Generally, it is forecast to be a slow, but solid, steady growth. The city is already planning for 10,400 residents in the NW parts of the city in a 20 year span (that can happen in a couple of months in Dallas). This includes roads and infrastructure. Gee..."planning" what a concept! lol!

Entertainment? Well, the Blue Man Group is playing there February 15th! LOL! I'll be there if I can get tickets and find somebody to go with. They have Larry the Cable Guy coming and a host of other performances. They have a healthy cultural arts center with opera, symphony and theater on a regular basis. So, for those saying there is nothing to do in Amarillo aren't looking very hard. If your entertainment is more of the Gentlemen's club variety, there are definitely some there. One I saw was called something like the "Jungle Club" and the way it was decorated outside was the siren's call to come inside for sure.

So, down to the final packing and prep for the move next Friday...loading up the truck Thursday. My folks have volunteered to oversee the cleaners and painters after I depart which is going to be a HUGE help. I love them. :-) being realtors, they'll help with selling and closing it. Right now, the housing market is hot in this area. So, I'm confident it will sell quickly. The important thing is that next Friday, I will pull out of my driveway headed for Amarillo with DFW forever in my rearview mirror. Priceless.

Winter's Feign

Well, it looks like things turned out abit warmer with the systemthis week. LOL! Still, looking at visible satellite yesterday revealed quite an impressive snow pack across a good portion of New Mexico, across CO and the TX PH and a broad swath NE from there across the central plains. Surface observations show the snow pack greatly retarding any warming up there even with full sunshine. People are still digging out and coping with the deep snows that slammed them a month ago. Amazing.

I'm headed back to Amarillo today to spend a couple of days securing a place. When I get back, I'll be in full swing to pack everything and move it into the garage in anticipation for move day on February 1. Moving sucks and I loathe it normally, but this time it's different. I'm pretty stoked about getting out of the festering armpit of Texas called the DFW Metromess. Plus, real estate market analysis shows that homes are selling like hotcakes in this area, so I expect a quick sale and likely chance to make a decent profit. The timing couldn't be better to make this transition.

Time to hit the road.

Winter Assault Continues

It looks like this weekend, it will be a cold rain around N TX. Oklahoma and the Panhandles look to keep al lthe winter precip...and it could be a real doozy up there. The be honest, I really haven't had much time to peruse the developing system because of packing and getting ready to move. I forgot how much of a pain in the butt that is. LOL. It's all good though.

However, things change for us here the first part of next week. Some colder air moves down into Texas just in time for a second and equally dynamic system to approach. Moisture will be the question as to how heavy the precip will be, but we will definitely get some snow. It's no real clear yet as to how significant it will be as far as the forecast discussions I've read. But there is a potential for a significant snow event across the area. Stay tuned!!!

Winter's Wrath

Fortunately, the ice storm from last weekend wasn't as bad as it very easily could have been. Traffic problems were the worst part of it all....typical for North Texas :-) The SE part of Oklahoma and areas of Missouri were devestated by heavy accumulations of solid ice of 3 inches and even a couple of reports of 4 inches. This is nothing short of astounding both in the amounts of ice and the fact that this is the second very severe ice storm in the plains this winter season. Winter has certainly unleashed it's wrath as it returns from a lengthy absence.

This morning, I awoke to a very light dusting of snow. The culprit was a weak impulse embedded in the moist southwest flow aloft. Parts of central and even south Texas are under a winter storm warning with significant sleet, freezing rain and snow all the way to Del Rio and Hondo of all places. Significant freezing rain of up to 1/2 inch are reported in the hill country with tree limbs coming down and elevated roadways/bridges glazed over with wrecks galore. It's a real mess. To read all of the details, CLICK HERE.

For the first time in a very long time, there is ice/snow on the ground from southern Texas all the way to the North Pole. Global warming? LOL! Not right now. ;-) This is important because future arctic surges will not modify as much because of the frozen tundra into Texas. With an active southern stream jet, we will see a higher risk of winter weather into March. In fact, with February being our wettest month historically, things could get even wilder than they have been.

In the short term, the models are having a tough time handling the upper energy that is persisting out west. Looking at water vapor, there is an abundant supply of pacific moisture and various disturbances out that way. It certainly appears that the action won't let up anytime soon. So, periodic shots of wintery weather are certainly expected for the next week. I'm starting to eye Friday/Saturday now as a possible significant snow event for this area. Stay tuned!!!

As a side note, packing and preparing to move sucks. It's still ongoing, but finally making decent progress. As soon as there is a lull in the winter weather, I'll be making another trip to Amarillo to lock in a place to live.

Also, an honorable mention in the stormchaser humor department goes out once again to my homie from Tulsa. Dat's funny right thare...I don't care who ya are! ROFLMAO!

ICE STORM UPDATE - 1/14 PM

We are under the gun now as expected. The temperature here in McKinney is now down to 30F and getting a good glaze of ice on everything. The radar is lighting up with extensive and widespread freezing drizzle and freezing rain...some of it moderate. This should continue overnight and through Monday morning as temperatures all across DFW fall below freezing. Fortunately, I'm seeing more convincing data that amounts should stay under 1/2 inch accumulation for the most part. That will keep the threat of widespread power outages very low. I think there will be some outages, but not a widespread disaster. Oscillating around the freezing point all day today and yesterday has spared us. SE third of OK isn't so lucky as are residents NE into Missouri.

However, travel will be impossible as all bridges and many roads get glazed over. What astounds me is the amount of people still out travelling. Numerous wrecks are being reported in Tarrant County and all areas weast and north of there. So I really have to question the intelligence level of those out there right now. I understand that some people have to and I don't include those. But, there are many that really don't have to be out, but they are. And then, they drive like idiots and morons as if there is no ice. What part of "ice storm warning" do they not comprehend? Geeez.

As for me, I am comfortable here at home with my favorite Smirnoff cold beverage and radar loops and a plethera of weather data as well as news coverage. Since I don't have to go to work for three more weeks, I'll be quite content to sleep in and avoid the ice rink madhouse and bumper car melee in the morning. :-)

Looking ahead, things get intersting again later Wednesday and overnight into Thursday morning. The NAM/WRF is upping the ante for some snow from SW TX into N TX. It continues to increase the precip amounts as it forecasts a stronger disturbance to approach the arctic air entrenched across the area.

Stay tuned!!

ICE STORM UPDATE - 1/14 AM

My internet service died last night and am just now getting online. to make things even more interesting, the power here went out at 6am and was off for 3 hours. Nice.

This has certainly been a maddening event to forecast for DFW area and N TX. The freezing line has been oscillating across the area since yesterday. Aiding in the Tylenol consumption by forecasters is the fact that the rain falling into the colder air is significantly warmer. I've watched all morning as temperatures fall to around 30 here at my house only to spike to 34 when the heavy rain showers move through. So, what little ice starts to glaze things, it is quickly melted off with the heavy rains. Here is the upper air sounding from Fort Worth this morning showing just how shallow the arctic air is and how warm it is just 2-3 thousand feet off the ground:



However, a weak surface low has developed in SE OK indicated by surface wind analysis. This should serve to continue at least weak cold air advection into the area all day long and the NAM/WRF indicates this. We will hover and iscillate around freezing all day in the DFW metro area with the exception being the western portions. The Red River counties and all points N, NW, W and even SW of Fort Worth will not be able to get above freezing. This is where my greatest concern is for severe icing.

Right now, dynamics are moving back to start increasing the precipitation later today and especially overnight and Monday. Already, a thunderstorm with heavy freezing rain is moving through Stephens county.

The thing to watch is just exactly where the heaviest rain bands fall in relation to surface temperatures. I'm still concerned for DFW as temps will get solidly below freezing this evening and stay there all day Monday. Although the models are trying to shift the precip immediately S and E of DFW tomrorrow, it is far too close for comfort. So, take what the TV mets are saying this morning with a large grain of salt.

However, we have been very fortunate with this event here regionally. If surface temperatures would have been about 2-4 degrees colder, we'd be in a state of emergency right now. Thanks to the other Steve Miller in Tulsa for providing some really good information about the crippling ice storm in E/SE OK with devestating ice accumulations of 2 inches or more.

States of emergency exist for pretty much the SE half of Oklahoma and across SE part of KS and into Missouri where devestating ice accumulations are bringing down trees and powerlines en masse. All roadways are completely glazed with heavy ice creating a literal skating rink there.

Like I said, we could have easily been in the same situation if the temperature had only been a miniscule 2-4 degrees colder. Of course, we aren't out of the woods yet and I have concerns for at least moderately heavy ice hitting portions of N TX and DFW which will cause alot of problems and power outages where it occurs. I don't trust the models enough breathe any sigh of relief at this point...the worst is yet to come.

Looking ahead, the cold air really entrenches itself throughout the entire week. The cold air will be deeper and with persistent troughiness remaining to the west, models are continuing to hint at a few more shots of light precip through Thursday and at this point, would be snow. We need to keep our eyes on Thursday right now for a *possible* more significant snow event. Too much uncertainty at this point though....just keep an eye on it.

One of the really big *positive* impact from this system is that the rainfall has been very heavy with alot of significant runoff and even minor flooding. The big city park lake here in McKinney was flooded more than I've seen it in three years. In fact, the Trinity River in Dallas recorded it's highest level since 2004. The drought is finally easing.

More later today as new data becomes available.

I'm Prepared

I just hope that I don't get accused of copying somebody's "idea". ;-)

ICE STORM UPDATE 1

Here is a good link to the NWSFO in Fort Worth that has a special page for this unfolding ice storm:

http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/specialwx.php

From the NWS discussion early this morning....I think it is dead on. This is going to get real nasty:

WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ICE STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTH AS THE FREEZE LINE CONTINUES TO SLIDE FASTER AND FARTHER THAN MODELS DEPICTED AND WE EARLIER THOUGHT. WE ALSO EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED THIS EVENT VERY WELL WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN CLOSER...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE.

WHERE IT IS FREEZING NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR 48 HOURS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ICE PROBLEMS. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO TRAVEL SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY BUT NOT FAR...PARTIALLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINS (MORE ABOUT THAT LATER). THIS AREA MAY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...HENCE WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THIS AREA.

IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WILL COME IN WAVES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE FIRST...COMING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AREA...WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. THE SECOND ONE...PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...COULD PRODUCE EVEN MORE PRECIP THAN TODAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY TO BRING WINTER PRECIP.

WITH THIS ADDITIONAL LIFT...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...JUST WHAT WE DON'T NEED FALLING INTO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE BAD TODAY...BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BECOME WORSE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES AFFECTING QUITE A FEW NORTH TEXANS. IN ADDITION...THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL WARM THE SURFACE AIR...SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE LINE TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY...THEN SURGE BACK AFTER THE RAINS END.

THUS SOME AREAS...MAINLY THOSE IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA...MAY ALTERNATE BETWEEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN. TO THE EAST OF THE ICE STORM WARNING...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS. BASICALLY...THE AREA NOT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING IS IN A FLOOD WATCH.

ICE STORM!!!

After perusing latest model data combined with current trends, it appears that at least the DFW area and areas north and northwest are going to get slammed with a severe ice storm. The latest NAM/RUC are showing temperatures finally dropping below freezing by morning and maybe drop another degree or two through the day as colder air continues to filter in. Heavy rain is forecast by the models and I certainly concur. With liquid amounts through Monday morning approaching 4-5 inches, this certainly has the potential to be a very brutal and severe ice storm....and the worst one we've seen 27 years.

So far, an interesting phenomena has been ongoing through this evening. Surface temperatures have remained steady with a few staions actually increasing a degree or two. The reason for this is that the rain is considerably warmer (50F!) than the air in the lowest 1-2 thousand feet. This tends to keep temperatures boosted a few degrees. In fact, this happens alot in North Texas and averts alot of potentially severe ice storms.

However, the air filtering in from Oklahoma is pretty darned cold with upper teens to mid 20's with single digits in Nebraska. Therefore, I am in strong agreement with the NAM temperature forecasts through Monday. So, at or below freezing is certainly likely for DFW starting in the morning...and a guarantee for areas west and north. This will coincide perfectly for the very heavy precipitation amounts expected. The NAM tries to keep DFW on the northern edge of the core of heaviest precip amounts, but within range of typical devience.

If everything does in fact come together as currently indicated, areas of N TX could see ice of at least 2 inches thick or more coating trees and powerlines by late Sunday. You can certainly expect widespread power outages...and in DFW that spells total and complete chaos. It would take a couple of weeks or more to get everybody restored if this is bad as it *potentially* could be.

But, if we are lucky and the cold air is a tad deeper, we could see more sleet out of this and spare us the devestating ice storm. This also happens quite abit too and spares us the massive power outages. This will have to be closely monitored on an hourly basis and analyze data continuously.

Latest update I have is that the area in NW TX and SW OK is already getting severe ice with a multitude of wreacks and considerable power outages along the I44 corridor. Yikes! Also, the temperatures in Decatur and Bowie which had popped up a couple of degrees, has now downturned again back to 32F and 29F respectively according to schoolnet sites. So, the temperature forecasts are right on track. Yikes.

So, right now, Sunday looks like the worst day as a stronger impulse and main wave comes in. Keep your fingers crossed that this doesn't end up being "the big one" for North Texas.

A very interesting thing happened to me on my way home early from work (my last day there....didn't want me sticking around and causing trouble for the next few weeks...so I'm on vacation right now). As I got into the north part of Frisco, a wall of fog rapidly approached me and when I drove into it, the temperature dropped and instant 20F!! Yowsa! It gets better. As I turned on Hwy 380 east and caught back up the the front and plunged into the warm sector, all my windows instantly fogged over and I couldn't see a damned thing...even with the windshield wipers on full!! Lots of other folks encountered the same thing and were pulling over. It was nuts!! I quickly hit the heater at full blast and recovered quickly...but it was quite a surprise.

Wow....grab some groceries folks. Leave some PopTarts for me. :-)

GOOD RIDDENCE DALLAS!!! HELLO AMARILLO!!!!!

YEEEEEEEEEE-HAAAAAWWWWW!!! WOOT! WOOT! I'm getting the hell out of DFW!! I'm moving to Amarillo!! And no, I'm not nuts. ;-)

I've been trying to get out of the DFW are for awhile now. I've been waiting for the right opportunity and the right time to make it happen. But, what about the big career change from a year ago? Well, it's a long story, but a typical one of how corporate lunacy is counter-productive to actually getting things done...as well as a harsh deterrent to logic, reason, sanity and common sense. It is at it's worse when it comes to IT. I could ramble on about this, but a book that I just read puts it in the best, cystal-clear perspective that I've ever seen. Even if you are a non-programmer, it's a good read...."The Career Programmer: Guerilla Tactics for an Imperfect World". Written by Christopher Duncan, who has several great articles that anybody dealing with IT should read, it absolutely nails the problems of IT functioning within the corporate world.

I felt relieved to know that others out there share my same observations and perspective. It also helped me to fully admit to myself that as a professional programmer and analyst, I do not do well within a big corporate environment where personal career agendas, politics, inept management and marketing/sales drives everything. I've been an IT professional for 10 years now. I've seen more than my fair share of failed or POS projects and applications. There is a common thread amongst all of those failures which I'm faced with now.

The problem is, my objective failure analysis concerning the major project I'm on now is being ignored. It is headed straight for a large iceberg...full speed ahead. I've pleaded, begged, and screamed about the impending disaster with a course of corrective action to avoid it. But, no, the big iceberg is the intended target and there will be no deviation. The bridge isn't listening to the concerns from the navigation room. Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead! Ramming speed Mr. Sulu! LOL! That's the dramatic abbreviated version of my current situation. ;-)

So, it's time to abandon ship and set a new course. In my new gig, I'll at least be on the bridge where I'll have some input on steering...as well as a clear view of what lies ahead. :-) The captain on the new ship listens to his crew. There's a little more risk but with much better near and long-term potential. I know I'll be much happier because I'll actually be able to get things done without having to slay Moby Dick every time I turn around. One thing is certain, a career within a large corporate behemoth certainly isn't working out very well for me. It's time for a change.

By going to Amarillo, I'll be getting away from the festering armpit of Texas called "DFW". I'll be getting more back to my roots and personal values as well. I've always felt more at home in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas more than anyplace else. I was born west of Lubbock and that red sand still runs through my veins. People are very friendly and laid back compared to the DFW residents in general. Things are alot less hectic and stressful comparatively. In Amarillo, you're never but a few minutes from being in the middle of "away from it all".

The cost of living is certainly less as well. I've been looking at some places online that offer about the same amount of house plus an acre or two of land out in the country for the same price. With taxes more than half of what I'm paying now, it's an even better deal. :-) Plus, I'd be no more than 20...and at the very most 30 minutes from work if I really move out aways. No horrendous 1-2 hour one-way commutes staring at the back-end of another vehicle while crawling along. That has a significant impact not only in job satisfaction, but your sanity.

For recreation, the mountains are only a 4-5 hour drive west. I can make a weekend trip to cool off in the hot summer and make a few ski trips during the winter. The great Palo Duro Canyon is just down the road where I expect to spend alot of time exploring and doing photography. With an international airport nearby, I can make a quick getaway to wherever...and all without the massive headaches and hassles of DFW.

I can do a little recreational fishing and water stuff at Lake Meridith (if it doesn't dry up! lol) or for some really good bass fishing, Alan Henry Reservoir isn't too far away with about a 3 hour drive SE of Lubbock near Post. I've never fished there, so I look forward to spending alot of time exploring and getting to know the lake. It's a "Lake Fork" of the west with some serious lunker bass in it's waters. I hear rumors that the night fishing there is awesome. That means a boat is again in my future. :-) I'll have to stop by and pick up my fishing bud David Drummond as I pass through Lubbock. ;-)

Of course, the weather weenie in me certainly won't be bored. Some of the wildest weather on the face of this planet frequents this region. From snow storms and blizzards to powerful supercells, it has it all. It certainly ain't gonna be boring! My stormchasing hobby will certainly benefit the most. I won't have to deal with the large, expansive "DFW Metromess", trees, hills, or the Red River. I can work to 5pm, jump in the car, drive a few miles, play with a tornadic supercell, and make it home in time for dinner and some great lightning photography opportunities.

I can catch the supercells rolling off the Raton Mesa and even catch storms in E and SE CO with an easy 5 hour drive or less. With my tornado and storm counts going up, maybe I'll become an exhalted member of the stormchasing cult showered with praise and adorned with accolades while hoisted upon an ivory pedestal. But, don't worry....it'll never happen. The high priests of stormchasing issued a decree banishing me into exile last year. ;-) Seriously though, I'll really look forward to tangling with some powerful and beautiful supercells this season in my backyward. Maybe I can save some vacation time and money to do some other things I enjoy. With my luck though, all tornadoes and supercells will be deflected 500 miles away from the Panhandle region for the next decade. LOL!!

OK...time to start packing and getting the house ready to sell. I'll update as I go along and let ya know when I'm settled.

Winter Weather Onslaught

As of today, things still aren't clear cut as to exactly what will happen south of the Red River. The NAM/WRF model for it's second consecutive run is insisting on a brutal ice storm from W/NW TX through central and NE portions of OK. It tries to keep us hovering just above freezing for most of the precip event.

The big variable right now amongst al the models is the evolution of the upper air pattern through Monday. The NAM/WRF is more aggressive with a stronger, deeper, slower system with the GFS much less so. With such developing storm systems along the west coast, they quite often end up being underforecast by most of the models this far out. With that in mind and the trend of this winter season so far, I'm siding more with the NAM/WRF.

This one needs to be taken very seriously. If the aforementioned model verifies, we could easily see an ice storm with up to 2" accumulation of powerlines and trees similar to what happened a couple of weeks ago across KS and S NE. With a higher population density down here, the impact would be disastrous. If major metro areas like DFW, OKC and Tulsa are hit, it will truly be a nightmare of epic proportions. I'm especially concerned because I have an all-electric house. Yikes!! I better go grab some firewood and a case of strawberry poptarts. ;-)

But, at this point, I have to stress that there is still considerable uncertainty at this point as to what will happen. We'll have to watch and see if the model consensus begins to narrow by tomorrow.

A Quick Political Rant

Sandy "Burglar" Berger, Prsident Clinton's former National Security Advisor, got busted for stealing classified documents from the National Archives not too long ago. Of course, the liberal mainstream media reported it, but I didn't see any effort to really do some investigative reporting on it. C'mon, stuffing documents into his socks?!?!?! ROFL! It's every bit as large of a story as Watergate ever was. Instead, the media cheerfully accepted his excuses and reasoning for doing it. End of story. Where the hell is Dan Rather now? LOL!

Today, the final report was released concerning his high crimes.

It makes for very good reading. :-) I do wonder what he managed to destroy and hide to protect himself and Clinton from the 9/11 probe. We will never know. The tragedy of course is that he won't be tried for treason and swing from the end of a rope. If the Demorats truly want to convince me and millions of others in this country that they are serious about restoring ethics and itegrity, they should open up a full investigation into Berger's actions before they start on their lynching of Bush coming soon to a C-Span channel near you.

Unbelievable.

Arctic Express Headed For Texas

The models are in excellent agreement on bringing down some frigid arctic air starting this weekend. Exactly when is the big question and something the models always struggle with. My experience is that the arctic air almost always arrives earlier. With the existing heavy snow pack in E CO and W KS and at least a light snow pack from there and N/NW, the arctic airmass will not modify as much as it normally would. Thus, this will further aid in it's southward plunge.

My best guess is the initial front across North Texas by early Saturday morning with much colder air filtering in behind through the weekend. By Monday, the coldest air will arrive and should hold tough for a few days once it does. In fact, we might not get above freezing from sometime around Sunday through sometime Wednesday.

The crystal ball madness ensues in regards to precipitation. The 12z GFS isn't as deep and more progressive with the upper level system. Even the ECMWF is now showing the system to be a little more progresive. If this is the case, then our precip chances here would end Sunday. But, we would be near or below freezing for that last half of the event late Saturday and Sunday, so we should see some wintery precipitation. The cold air looks to be shallow enough for a better chance of freezing rain and sleet. How much? I'm not going there yet. Too early for that.

My twin namesake from Tulsa had an interesting snippet (one of many in his blog)concerning the most popular food item for winter storms events...at least for WalMart. Strawberry Poptarts! LOL!!! I believe that because it's one of my secret junk food cravings. With a good cup of coffee, I'm set for the day! They are pretty fattening though, despite being "fortified" with vitamins and other things "good" for you. So, I'll use the powers of my weather weenie prognosticative abilities and assault the grocery store this evening in a premptive strike to horde the Strawberry Poptarts. ;-) I might also pick up a little firewood for "effect". That is something worthy of my own interesting snippet...

Most fireplaces actually are more of a detriment to heating your home as you might imagine. While it does indeed generate good heat in a small portion of your house, it is in effect a very strong convective force. As the heat rises in the chimney, so does the air...and guess from where that escaping air is replaced from? From around every little crack and crevice in your house....around windows, doors, etc. Yep, that bitterly cold arctic air seeps into the rest of your house in much greater volume. So, no, you won't save on your electric bill and in fact, it is often higher. :-) How do I know this? I work with a couple of guys that have been in the energy industry for a combined total of 50 years. Plus, there are studies that confirm this. Not every house is like this, but a good majority of them are.

As far as my personal "Winds Of Change", I'm still waiting for a final decision. Stay tuned....

Winds Of Change

The recent brutally severe blizzard and snow/ice storm that slammed the SE quarter of Colorado, the westeran third of Kansas and central parts of Nebraska, is one for the history books. Pictures of pickup trucks nearly completely buried and solid ice coating trees, powerlines and everything else up to 3 inches thick bringing down thousands of power poles and high tension line towers is just unreal.

We have now had two major winter storms of historic proportions this witner....and all before January. What is even more astounding to me is that nobody is running around screaming about it being George Bush's fault or wondering why the nanny federal government isn't stepping in and waving a magic wand to fix everything. Perhaps that is because the mainstream media just aren't doing their job or aren't interested since these are all red counties? ;-)

But, the winter season is just getting into full swing. The models are forecasting the winds of change will swing around from the polar regions into Texas by the end of next week and weekend. The models are all in excellent general agreement for a strong surge of arctic air to blast deep into Texas as a very large upper trough digs southward across the left coast into NW Mexico.

This is a prime, classic pattern for some significant winter weather into Texas. If this trough ends up becoming a permanent fixture for a week or more as is being strongly hinted at by the models, it really raises some serious concerns. It is still too far out to make any predicitions of course, but I can't stress enough that this really bears very close watching. More next week as the event draws closer.

Speaking of winds of change, there are some HUGE changes brewing for me personally....and very positive changes at that. So stay tuned for that as well. I should know something by the first part of next week if it will happen or not. :-)