Buh-Bye Saddam

Cya. Adios. Asta La Vista, Babeee. Good Riddence.

Let the records show that at 0300z, Saturday December 30, 2006....justice was served upon one of the most evil men in history...Saddam Hussein..the Baghdad Butcher. The WMD of Iraq is no more. The Ace of Spades has been cut from the deck.

For anybody who questions or is not fully aware of just how evil this man was, please read his "resume of atrocities". CLICK HERE

Good riddance, Saddam. Have fun in hell.

The "T" Word?

Here's a story about President Bush taking shelter.

UPDATE 2336z: Unfortunately, the latest report coming in from earlier tornadoes in Limestone County are 1 fatality and 12 injuries near Groesbeck. Things are calming down abit, but a solid line of intense storms are developing along the front from Archer County through Hood and Coryell counties. 0-1km SRH values are still 400+ and the threat is still there and should continue as the upper low continues it's slow approach. A weak warm front is trying to form near the DFW area roughly along I-20, so we still need to keep our guard up overnight. However, it appears that the 0-3km CAPE is waning with loss of heating and more extensive precip. So, I'm beginning to think that the tornado threat is waning as well and transitioning into a flooding type event. I'd keep an eye on the storms developing on the front for the rest of the evening.

UPDATE 2240z: I finally made it home from work. The fireworks continue with a TOR in progress in Tarrant County. Nothing has been spotted and as I write, the circulation seems to have weakened. But, we are going to be under the gun through the night.

Further south, confirmed damage and injuries and even one fatality are being reported now. In fact, a large, wedge tornado was reported very near Crawford and the President's ranch. I heard on the radio that everybody including the President and First Lady were hurredly moved into a storm shelter. College Station is now reporting tornado damage as well.

Other reports in N TX within the past 2 hours:

CORYELL COUNTY: GERALD BELL REP 12 STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH ROOFS OFF BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED NEAR FM 185 AND US 84 INTERSECTION. NO INJURIES REPORTED

LIMESTONE COUNTY: REPORT OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES 2W GROESBECK ON 164

BOSQUE COUNTY: LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND 8 NE CLIFTON 1/4 MI WIDE. SPOTTER REPORT

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UPDATE 2018z: All but one TOR has expired/been cancelled. The Erath cell has waned and no longer poses a threat. The Bosque cell has weakened, but still indicating some rotation as it heads into far SW Johnson county as it moves a tad W of due N. The Limestone cell is still indicating strong rotation and a TOR is out for it. Another cell has developed in Coryell county and indicating rotation now.


^^^ 1955z in Limestone County. Large, strong rotation! Take Cover!

1954z: TORNADO IN STEPHENVILLE! Law Enforcement reports it on the ground at 377 moving towards CR176.

1943z: Confirmed tornado 2 miles south of Stephenville reported by Sheriff's Office. It is moving towards Stephenville.

1941z: Confirmed tornado in Bosque County by DPS trooper 8 miles east of Clifton near Coyote (gotta love Texas!)



^^ 1935z SRV1 image with 4 tornado warnings in effect. This is nuts! Report of a confirmed tornado wtih tree/fence damage 4 miles south of Alexander or 10 miles E fo Dublin.



^^1921z SRV1 showing both tornadic circulations

^^^^ UPDATE 1920z: the storm-relative velocity image at 1915z as the TOR was being issued for Erath County. TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED!!! One was sighted by Law Enforcement in Coryell county along with a report of a mobile home damaged.


UPDATE 1915z: A new rotating storm has rapidly developed in southern Erath county with even stronger rotation. A TOR should be issued within minutes. This is all in the area I outlined in green below. More storms are rapidly developing. This could get wild.

Current tornado watch with a tornado warning in effect. The greenish outline is where the SPC mesoanalysis is pegging as the greatest threat as of 18z.




With the upper system being slower and further south than the models forecast a couple of days ago (a very common bias), we've had time to juice up the warm sector and setup some rather impressive dynamics. In fact, if you study Jon Davies' cold core and upper low tornado event analysis, we have qute a few things coming together in that respect.

Nevertheless, with SRH values 300-600 from Northern Texas to Houston combined with very low LCLs, 0-1km shear exceeding 30 knots, 0-3km CAPE 50-100j/Kg, SBCAPE 1000+, diffluence aloft and upper/mid jet on top of a fierce LLJ at 850mb, the tornado threat exists. The SPC has a red box from about I-20 southward which I think is appropriate. Areas north of I-20 are suffereing from lack of low level instability combined with a feed of dewpoints in the lower and mid 50's from northern LA and AR. The other parameters are still impressive and certainly doesn't preclude an isolated tornado event/warning. But, the threat is more distinct and significant south of I-20. I'm seeing some things that might shift this towards teh Red River overning and in the morning...but more on that later as it is warranted.

Oops...already a TOR for Coryell County...doppler indicated. Wind is another threat with hail later tonight and in the morning.

Wild Winter Storm Part 3

Forecast position of intense and powerful upper low for Saturday above.

Then only saving grace preventing another monster blizzard this season is the lack of arctic air associated with this system. However, the higher terrain of colorado and far western Kansas into Nebraska won't be so lucky. This evening's latest model runs are indicating another massive and paralyzing blizzard to hit those areas. They haven't fully recovered from the last system which produced 2-3 feet of snow in the general Denver metro area. It was the 7th worst storm since 1946.

This next system could quite easily be just as severe based on the continued model forecasts of a slower and stronger system....almost identical to the 20-21st storm system. With alot of snow still on the ground from the last system, people could be having to dig snow tunnels just to get out of the house. Wow.

For us in the southern plains, it looks to be a pretty good rain producer with some flooding possible in areas. In fact, N TX and Central OK and points eastward may get some serious rainfall totals out of this one with a low-end marginal severe threat.

Stay tuned!

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

To all my friends and family, I wish you a very Merry Christmas!! And, please, remember the reason for the season. :-)



And I can't pass up a blog entry without some humor and a political interjection ;-)







Stop the ACLU Coalition

American Center for Law and Justice (ACLJ)

Alliance Defense Fund (ADF)

Thomas More Law Center (TMLC)

The Rutherford Institute

Oklahoma Earthquakes

Oklahoma is well known for it's tornadoes and associated chaser circuses. However, few poeple know that it is also a hotbed for seismic activity...or earthquakes. They are always less than 5.0 magnitude and more often just minor tremors of 2.0-3.0 range. Today, Del City and Midwest city had a couple of these minor tremors. Early reports indicate they are not caused by chaser gang wars or temper tantrums stirred up by my good friend and dual namesake from Tulsa. ;-)

For some interesting study and analysis of this little-known phenomena, check out the Oklahoma Geological Survey website. And here it was that I just thought those random rumblings while waiting for storms to fire up there were from my gastrointestinal distress related to the rapid consumption of Allsup's burritos. LOL!

Super Blizzard

For the second time in this early winter season, a vicious and powerful winter storm has slammed the central part of the country. The eastern half of Colorado into western Kansas is a winter nightmare of historic porportions.

Hardest hit is the Denver metro area where two feet of snow blanketed the area. The airport there is now a literal refugee camp as thousands of people are stranded indefinitely. The timing could not be any worse with the busiest travel time of the year in full swing. It is quite possible that people will still be stranded there through Christmas and beyond. With all flights already booked to capacity through Christmas, many people will not be able to get another seat on a flight for several days or even a week. The National Guard and The Red Cross are bringing in core necessities such as food, water, diapers, formula, medicine, etc. I'm sure Bush will get some of the blame. ;-)

The other big story are the thousands of people trapped all along the interstates. Everything is shut down and nothing is moving. The National Guard and other agencies are loading up people and taking them to shelters en masse. Like the airport, supplies are being trucked in and possibly even airlifted.

The concern I have for those folks are medical emergencies. Hopefully, helicoptors have already been dispatched and some sort of communications system is up and running to handle such emergencies.

The question I have, from the perspective of one of the stranded motorists, is how in the heck do you get back to your vehicle stranded a hundred miles or more from where you are at in the middle of the interstate in the middle of nowhere? With that in mind, how do you start traffic flowing again on those interstates with them literally being a parking lot with the owners' (who have the keys) whereabouts unkown?

Wow. What a headache. What a nightmare.

I for one will be alot more cheerful in my long and grueling commute home today.

Story links:

Denver Post 1

Denver Post 2

Yahoo News

Yahoo Slide Show

One of the more amusing aspects of this weather disaster will be the reactions from the global warming eco-alarmists. After a season with one of the most calm hurricane seasons on record, their hysterical shrieking is going beyond the lunatic fringe. ;-)

Upper Lows' Return & Darwin Award Entry

Finally! The upper air pattern is resembling some semblence of normalcy after a prolonged state of pschizophrenic disorder. The current upper low traversing the Rockies right now will eject out further north into the central plains. Once again, the upper system ends up being more progressive and kicking out further north than early model progs indicated. However, it is part of a very large trough over the western CONUS into NW Mexico. Enough energy should pass through OK and TX to give us a real good soaking...but still no drought buster.

However, all the models are in excellent agreement for yet another strong upper low and associated trough to visit us next weekend. So, the "rainy" pattern appears to get itself established for a little while at least. This next system appears to have a little colder air to work with, so a little wintery weather might be in store for us if the core of the upper low treks across the area. It is still quite a ways off though to get too silly about details. The main thing though is more rain is on the way. I'm hoping and praying that this upper air pattern will establish itself for the next couple of months. We'll see.

Now we move on to my submission to the Darwin Awards. Somebody officially beat me to it though, darn it. The story is about two adventurous teenagers who apparently slept through all of their chemistry and science classes in addition to not being able to afford a flashlight. Blame it on the failure of public education, shallow end of the gene pool, MTV, rock music, Republicans, George Bush...whatever. I'm just glad they didn't grow up to be stormchasers. ;-)

Read the story for yourself. If that doesn't work or the Dallas Morning News decides to change the link or remove the story, you can find it here.

I guess they found out what was in those tanks, huh? The true tragedy of course is that instead of this serving as a warning to everybody that you shouldn't use a match to look into a gas can or other container of flammable liquids or vapors (especially a real BIG container), the oil company will be sued for not having a warning label clearly displayed on the tank and 24 hour guards posted around it...."WARNING. DO NOT USE A MATCH, CIGARETTE LIGHTER, BUTANE TORCH, CANDLE, OR OTHER OPEN FLAME OR HEAT SOURCE TO LOOK INTO THIS OIL TANK. SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH MAY RESULT FROM FIRES AND EXPLOSIONS. YOU MORON." ROFL!!

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Some Serious Rain Finally?

As the severe drought rages on and the lakes turn into mudholes, there is finally a signaled pattern change to offer some real hope for significant rains in the crystal ball. The models are really falling into good agreement over a deep trough over the western CONUS developing into a large cutoff upper low over the Baja region. We haven't seen this pattern in a very very long time *IF* it does indeed become reality. The wicked winter storm system that hit a couple of weeks ago was the first hint of a pattern change related to the weak El Nino pattern. With a big, cutoff low sitting out to our W and WSW and moving slowly across, it is a classic setup for prolonged benficial and even flooding rains this time of year. It could really be a good start in reversing the drought. We shall see. :-) Here are some computer model graphics for the time period of next Monday evening, the 18th.....

From the latest 12z GFS (that's a whopper of an upper low):

From the 00Z run of the ECMWF last night (note the next impulse coming down from the Pacific NW which could merge and deepen the existing big trough...but could easily serve to kick it out too...hard to say at this point. )

So, which configuration will occur? The 12z GFS is taking a more aggressive stance on this as of now, so it will be interesting to see all of the model trends with this evening's 00Z runs. Even with the ECMWF soution, it would still mean a good shot at heavy rains across the area. The GFS more flooding possibilities. Both would favor some severe potential as well as the warm sector will have ample time to juice up. If we had some arctic air spilling down, it would be another very wicked winter storm. No worries though from Kansas southward though...at least at his time. :-)

Of course, the biggest problem we have had for the past two years are that these systems are forecast to really deepen and drag across TX, only to open up and be more progressive across the Central Plains or at best Oklahoma thus shafting us with the dry slot and a meager, brief shot of precipitation.

I've been watching and studying weather patterns (as an amateur of course...for you snotty elitists out there) and how they affect Texas for most of my life. Big, upper lows like this in winter and early spring should be "normal" for us. So, climatology would support such a solution. But, climatology has been thrown in the crapper for the past several years. LOL!! Hopefully we are witnessing the infant stages of climatology returning to the Southern Plains. Let's fill up the lakes and spin up some naders in TX and OK again. :-)

Pray for rain.

Global Warming Hysteria

Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.) deserves a medal. Heck, he should run for president. The only problem with that is he is Republican and aggressively and regularly exposes blatent liberal media hysteria and bias.

Anyway, my political rhetoric aside, the Senator from Oklahoma has produced a brilliant document that is worth taking some time to carefully read through. It exposes the one-sided media hysteria and eco-alarmists that keep screaming that we will all soon parish because of SUVs, George Bush and Republicans causing the earth's atmosphere to warm up to the point where you won't need a microwave to pop your popcorn and killing us all in a few short years.

The lackluster, calm 2006 hurricane season certainly didn't make them pause or consider their "theories" might need to be revised. Instead, more predictions are coming out today (already in December of 2006!) that oh yeah, 2007 really will be a bad year for hurricanes. They don't hear the crescendo of laughter and smirks from alot of the American people. I mean, stop it already. It's really becoming pretty embarrasing. However, the mainstream media and eco-buffoons like Al Gore will pick it up and run with it.

All I know is that I'm about ready to start my own official climate diaster prediction center. "The Tailchaser Global Catastrophe Prognostication Center & Coffehouse" (a subsidiary of my Supercell Deprivation Syndrome Treatment Centers, Inc). I could probably get all sorts of grants from the left-wing eco-lunacy groups like the Heinz Foundation as well as get the mainstream media to pay top dollar for alot of fancy graphical displays of end-of-the-world scenarios supported of course by 175,200 hour runs of the GFS model (after skewing the algorithms of course to reflect expected continual increases of the earth's atmosphere by 1-2C each year). Mamma didn't raise no fool. I could get rich and retire off of this stuff.

Anyway, back to the Senator from Oklahoma. Here is his lengthy and detailed report:

CLICK HERE

A brief summary of the report:

1) The "Medieval Warm Period" ignored or censored by eco-alarmists. It was alot warmer back then than now and for a longer period of time. In fact, Vikings were growing crops in Greenland back then.

2) The "Little Ice Age" from 1500-1850 is always ignored by eco-alarmists.

3) The mainstream media has been flipping back and forth more than John Kerry between a coming ice age and global warming ever since the 1930's and even a New York Times alarmist mantra about the coming ice age...back in 1895!. You'll be amazed to read excerpts from decades past that sound eerily similar to what you hear today....even before Al Gore was born! LOL! He certainly can't claim he invented any of this stuff before he was born....or can he? ;-)

4) Computer models are relied upon and cited as scientific evidence by the mainstream media/eco-alarmists. We can't even get operational forecast models halfway accurate beyond 5 days much less 20, 50 or 200 years into the future. ROFL!

5) Uncovering more of the truth about the Kyoto Treaty including 60 scientists now concluding if we knew back then what we know now, it would not be needed.

6) Eco-alarmists unable to account for the CO2 explosion in 1940 and why we warmed after 1850 when everybody was still riding horses (i know I know....bovine and equestrian methane gasses are to blame LOL)

7) All of the debunked myths perpetuated by Al Gore and accepted as holy gospel by the eco-doomsayers.

8) The polar bears are doing just fine thank you....from scientists that have studied them for years.

9) Greenland's ice volume is actually increasing again according to scientific studies published in the past couple of years.

Plus much much more!!! It's good stuff, Manard. Yeah, I said I'd refrain from political rants on my blog. So, sue me. :-)

Pearl Harbor Survivors Last Memorial

I thought this too significant to not make mention of. To those who served with honor, bravery and valor.....

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,235038,00.html

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