Ice Storm!

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the NWS FTW picked up on it first this morning and now the models are locked in on it...the upper level system is indeed digging more than expected. The result is an even more intense upper level low developing and moving across the area on Thursday..slower than earlier model forecasts.

At the same time, the arctic front is apparently intent on coming in faster than forecast....pretty typical for strong, shallow arctic airmasses. The models never handle these events well at all and forecasters get suckered every time. :-) Here at 16z, it is already past Tulsa and OKC and knocking on the door of Wichita Falls. Precip is already erupting just behind the front in OK.

As far as the severe thunderstorm threat, it is very high today through Thursday...even behind the front. The main threat will be hail. The best chance for surface based supercells has shifted further WSW as a result of the upper low/trough coming in slower. The triple point and dryline appear to stay well SW of the DFW area down around Brownwood to Brady to Junction vicinity where I would be if I were chasing today. I think the tornado threat will be a bit better down there. Up in N TX and S/SE OK, storms will erupt along the front as a squall line....and a pretty good one at that. :-) I just don't see support for discreet supercells forming out ahead of it today....the upper energy and dynamics are lagging too far to the west.

Back to the impending ice storm. Current indications are that impressive upper air dynamics will focus on N TX and S OK (The Red River Valley) for strong elevated convection behind the front. With dewpoints forecast to drop into the mid 20's, wet bulbing (evaporative cooling) should slam us to or below freezing by sometime Thursday morning. The strongest dynamics aloft move across later in the 18-00z time frame resulting in intense elevated convection and yes....sleet or snow with lightning and thunder! :-) This should produce copious amounts of freezing rain and sleet and even small hail across the area with a better chance of snow later in the event and in particular across the Red River valley into S OK. Fortunately, ground temperatures are balmy, so only bridges/overpasses, trees, and power lines are going to freeze.

The hedache in these types of events is just how much freezing rain will occur. It's always a delicate balancing act which is impossible this far in advance to determine with any sort of accuracy. Freezing rain events mostly occur in a narrow geographic area as well making it even more of a headache to forecast. It's a crap shoot at this point. If things evolve to support freezing rain, then this could certainly end up being a significant storm with heavy glazing of ice. If the air column is abit colder, then it would all be sleet..and still a pretty darned significant event...but relatively harmless.

Keep an eye on this one folks. it is going to be a wild event and certainly one that makes this weather weenie all giddy. :-Þ If the upper air system digs and intensifies even more, then the event becomes even more significant.

More later as conditions warrant. ;-)

Arctic Blast

Finally, some weather to talk about! :-)

The season's first "Arctic Express" is preparing its assault on the southern plains starting Wednesday and with a blitzkrieg through Texas on Thursday. Looking at the 12z NAM, it forecasts temperatures falling below 30F here in North Texas by 7pm Thursday with very strong north winds easily 20-30mph and gusty. This will be quite a shock with such balmy spring-like temperatures around here for so long right up to the early morning hours Thursday. We will experience an entire shift of seasons in only a few hours with a 30F temperature drop.

Prior to and during the frontal passage, strong to severe thunderstorms should also develop in response to strong upper air dynamics and instability combined with the powerful surface lift with the front. This will be welcome since the extreme drought rages on here. The question though right now is the evolution and track of the sharp upper trough (just nearly a cutoff low) after the front barrels through here.

If the NAM is correct in maintaining a moist SW flow aloft paralleling the front, then strong elevated storms could continue on through the afternoon and early evening as we plummet into the lower 30's and perhaps below the freezing mark aided in part by evaporative cooling of the shallow layer of drier air coming in at the surface. This makes things intersting in terms of an ice event here (But NOT on ground surfaces!! The ground way too warm for that). Trees, powerlines and bridges/overpasses would be at risk. I've seen this very same pattern too many times. :-)

Of course, this is still quite a ways out and still evolving. It will depend on the evolution of the developing/digging trough diving into the Rockies at that time. These types of systems are always tough to predict, and more often than not, end up digging more and becoming more vigorous and slower to move across. Such a scenario would increase the significance of the ice event. But, in a year when systems always seem to end up more open and progressive, the odds are that we won't see much at all. Ok..ok....it's all a long winded "I don't really know what the heck is going to happen". LOL!

One thing is certain though....our spring-like weather is coming to a screeching halt for awhile. Break out the coats, hot beverage of choice, prep the fireplace, winterize the vehicle, and stow away that outdoor grill. ;-)

More on Wednesday as things come into better focus.

Political OpEd & Sleepy Airline Pilots

Things have been hectic recently as the winds of change are once again swirling furiously around my career aspirations....stay tuned. :-) The weather is certainly boring to say the least which is why my blog has been filled with more political based rants than you would normally see. This will be my last political rant for awhile, so it will be a long one. I promise to continue the regularly scheduled programming of weather related blogging. :-)

Since my last post, the Demorats gained control of the House and Senate. Not surprisingly to me, now that they've come into power with incessant and hysterical ranting about them being the party of change, they are doing an abrupt 180 and stammering around in a dazed stupor struggling to formulate a "plan" that they have harped about having for years (remember the continual "I have a plan" Kerry?). Now that the spotlight is on them, they are acting like a deer caught in the headlights.

I'm still waiting for their "grand plan" and so far what tidbits I've heard from them sound eerily familiar to what Bush has been saying for awhile...stay the course and don;'t pull out until the job is finished. In fact, the NY Times finally for the first time put in print (after the election of course!) that cutting and running might end up in disaster. DUH! Where have we heard that before. ROFL! You just can't make this stuff up. So, you Demorats, we are waiting to see what you really do.

In the meantime, before they even officially take command, they are already tripping and falling courtesy of Pelosi. After all of the intense microscopic dissection of the Republican scandals, all we heard was the mantra of restoring ethics to the government and that they would make it the "most ethical Congress in history". So, she goes to bat for Murtha (Abscam) and Hastings (impeached and removed from office for bribery...by his own Demorats!) of all peoople to take the top spots. ROFLMAO!! Again, you just can't make this stuff up.

It gets even more interesting as Abramoff has been squealing like a pig and word has it that 8 prominant Demorats, inculidng Reid, are at the end of his pointed finger. They haven't even taken the reigns yet and already going for the all-time records in extreme hypocrisy and "lying"...a favorite word of the left who are often confused as to it's definition based on which political party the intended target/victim is a part of. :-) it's going to be fun the next 2 years watching what unfolds. I've got plenty of popcorn. ;-)

Of course, the divisiveness within the Demorats is deep and fierce which has already become quite apparent in the days following the election. I've said this for the past few years that there really are two politcal parties under the Demorat flag. The fissure is there and widening everyday. If it continues to grow, things get real interesting. The Green Party a few years ago was the first warning shot. If somebody legitimate and respected starts the same effort anytime soon, the fissure may finally split the party. Of course, the Republirats have the same problem which has really become more apparent in the past two years with the scandals and Iraq mess along with outrageous out-of-control spending and bloating the federal bureaucracy.

Remember too that the economy is setting records all over the place. Unemployement is so low that there are more jobs than people. More people are in their own homes now than ever before. I could go on and on, but the myriad of economic evaluators and figures are extremely strong everywhere. Even the enormous deficit is filling (but I am still outraged by rampant government spending the past few years).

So, will the Demorats leave well enough alone and admit that they were wrong on economic policies and strategies? Not likely. Expect to see your taxes raised and entitlement programs brought back to life or created anew. They've already said they are eyeing rolling back the Bush tax cuts as soon as possible. Yet, not one of them has explained why it is necessary or how the tax cuts have hurt us. In fact, the only thing you hear is that they are seeking to keep tax cuts for the middle class. Well, who do they consider to be "middle class"? Alot of conservative pundits have directly asked many Demorats this question and not ONE of them has answered that. So, they either don't know or don't want to say. As usual, they don't really have a plan or want to talk specific details...just spew forth hysterical rhetoric and mantra.

Alas, my point here is the BOTH parties are full of corruption and idiots...it's all deeply entrenched in our political system which is nothing but a cauldron of corruption and pandering to special interest lobby and ignoring the people that voted for them. Everybody involved with it lives and breathes the corruptive vapors. To sit there with a straight face and claim that your political party is totally immune to it and represent "ethical" behavior is absurd and amusing to me. Stop drinking the Ecstacy-laced kool-aid or lay off the purple mushrooms (or at least stop relying on the mainstream media as your sole source of information). We are in such dire, desperate need for a serious third political party in this country to shake things up. I know that the American people are fed up with BOTH parties and are deeply yearning for a change. Who will step up?

Before I get yelled and screamed at by a bunch of hysterically shrieking lunatic liberals out there, I agree that Iraq now is a mess. We need some fresh thinking in getting Iraq under control. I don't think we had enough troops on the ground there starting in the opening days of the war. We had serious logistics problems and convoys getting cut to pieces. We are still short in my opinion. The flow of arms and money and bodies to fuel the insurgency efforts have been pretty much unobstructed....and unforseen by the US.

Why we have waited so long to beef up border security and cut that off is a mystery to me. It's logical to me at least that our troops need to pull out of Baghdad and let the Iraqis secure it. Redeploy along the border regions with insane amounts of arial surveillance to crush the enemy supply lines. I'm not military general, but isn't that basic warfare 101? ;-) It also diffuses the situation in Baghdad by getting the "occupation forces" out of there which is becoming a common cry from Iraqis on all sides. We've worn out our welcome. I think that sort of change would be a very positive one and welcomed by many.

Will the violence end by doing that? Not likely...and it might escalate temporarily. If it does, we can always move back in, but with 300,000+ Iraqi troops (if the remain loyal to the Iraqi government and not their own tribal factions) and supporting US airpower, I would think it would be enough to keep it under control. If we concentrate on cutting off the insurgency supply lines, it will serve to turn the tide. One thing is certain, the status quo of us staying put isn't working and the violence continues to increase. So, a strategy change is necessary...and NOT cut and run either.

And, btw, a note to the liberals out there that claim they "support the troops" by undermining them and their morale, you're not. You don't support the troops by blowing the Abu Ghraib situation out of control into a raging firestorm. The NY Times ran it as a front page story for 81 days straight. Nobody wanted to talk about anything else. The liberal mainstream media had a real orgy with it basked in the accolades and cheers from the left in this country. The world took notice all right. Nobody wanted to talk about this being a very small handful of rogue, unsupervised soldiers compared to the 100,000 soldiers serving there. Instead, the media and leftists in this coutnry did a great job of portraying all military men and women operating in the same manner.

You also don't support the troops by blowing out of proportion the situation where a Marine was video taped shooting a wounded enemy combatant in the Fallujah battle. Instantly, the leftists and quite a few Demorats wanted to try and convict this brave Marine for war crimes...based solely on the video and without the facts! LOL! The media happily enflamed this rhetoric and supported the idea of convicting this soldier for doing his duty. None of the facts were highlighted that it was a common practice for wounded enemy combatants to "pretend' to be dead only to pop up with a hand grenade or some other weapon and kill other Marines. In fact, the Marine in question had one of his buddies killed by this very technique just days before.

I could keep listing many examples of the left and mainstream media in this country continually undermine our military's reputation, honor and morale. What's sad is that alot of this was centered around their hate for all things George Bush. I can tell for a fact that the actions of of the left in this country certainly haven't gone unnoticed by the soldiers fighting over there and their families living here.

The strong media bias in only reporting and exaggerating the negative aspects in particular have been duly noted. I know because I've talked to a few soldiers I've taken the time to meet...including one here at work that recently returned from duty. In fact, the Wachington Post ran a story recently about how commanders in Iraq have invited or taken many reporters and media people to see first hand all of the positive things out military men and women have done over there...which is quite significant. Yet, none of those media members uttered even one word about it when they submitted their reports later. Bias indeed. However, returning soldiers will one day have their story heard and the truth will eventually come out. Both sides in this debate are going to get an earful and in particular, the liberal mainstream media will have some explaining to do.

So...that ends my Iraq and political rant. That will be the last you'll hear of it on this blog for quite a while. :-)

Now, for something scary: overworked and exhasted airline pilots sleeping in the very planes they pilot. Just another reason for me to avoid flying anymore. Here is the local station WFAA reporting on it. THIS is journalism. It almost makes you want to Go Grayhound. I said almost. ;-)

Until next time.....

Support The Troops!!

ROFL! A picture is sometimes worth more than a thousand words. From the very people whose opinion on this subject matters more than anybody else's. 'Nuff said.