Today - 1930Z Update

Well, things have changed just a tad for severe possibilitis in N TX this evening and into Saturday morning. Dryline has stalled as of 19Z and the latest RUC keeps it in place. This is due to a stronger, digging upper system now developing over Utah creating better pressure falls. A surface low is already forming in the NE TX panhandle. The RUC deepens this low with a pseudo-warm front developing near the Red River Valley on the Oklahoma side tonight. As a result, the veering profiles will rapidly become favorable for supercells and even a few tornadoes as the LLJ cranks up over the I-35 corridor and the instability remains strong even with loss of daytime heating. The southern half of Ok and the RR Valley portion of Texas should really watch this closely tonight.

For now, I'm starting to believe that convection will erupt just east of I-35 and north of DFW later today along the dryline...IF it doesn't crawfish westward and break down due to the falling surface pressure upstream. I'm here at home today and just noticed a single towering Cu to my west near Denton. Satellite is starting to show a little enhancement to the cumulus field as well across north Texas. instabilities are pretty stout in excess of 3000 with the RUC continuing to increase that the next few hours. With such strong 0-6km shear in place, storms should go nuts if they get going. Veering profiles are mostly unidirectional right now, but jsut enough to make things interesting. This veering is expected to increase from 00Z onward though.

The other parameter is forward storm motion. I'm not inclined to chase cells at 45mph. ;-) But, hopefully one will get better rooted along the dryline and slow down a tad or backbuild/propogate upstream to have the same effect. The instability is certainly there to support that possibility today.

However, the big horse fly in the ointment is this entire area being on the southern or anticyclonic side of the mid and upper jets creating at lest some weak subsidence. This works to enforce the cap and work against vertical mostions. So, we may in fact just see bubbling cumulus and nothing else until late tonight as the RRQ jet sets up and we get more divergence aloft.

I'm hanging tight here in McKinney and watching stuff visually and on the computer. I'm prepared to bug out of here on a moment's notice.

Yesterday's Reflection, Today's Despair, Tomorrow's Hope.

So much for my forecast yesterday. It appears the jet max remained up in Oklahoma (keeping everything south of the Red River subsident) as the upper vortex spun more up towards Nebraska than Kansas. This along with the morning clouds and rain reduced the dryline punch into better moisture. At least I busted in good company with the SPC's 20Z tornado threat risk from yesterday as well as the moderate risk that straddled the Red River Valley. I truly thought I'd intercept a cell near the I-35 corridor south of the Red River and track it eastward. Oh well....the N TX curse. What can I say?

I did catch the one big cell that tracked across S OK that had a persitent tornado warning as it got into SE OK along with a couple of confirmed reports. I saw several very ominous wall clouds and great structure. However, I never seemed to be able to get out of the creek bottoms and trees to get pics of the better structure before it would morph into something more mediocre as I got into a clearing. The storm was taunting me. ;-) I did capture a few decent lightning shots which I'll post later.

For the rest of today, I don't like what I'm seeing on the model runs. Current surface analysis supports the model solutions of low level winds veering throughout the day as well as being on the southern side of mid level jet (an all too common theme for N TX and S OK). It looks like hot, windy and dry for any chasing within my range today.

Attention turns to tomorrow as a cold front merges with the dryline and eases southeastward across the area and a pronounced RRQ of mid and upper jets establishes itself across the area along with ample moisture, instability, and veering profiles. It looks more like a strong to severe squall line event at this time, but it needs to be watched carefully since the models, as usual, are struggling even 24 hours out with systems.

Congrats to my homie Steve Miller of Tulsa who pretty much nailed Hugo as a target yesterday as the big tornadic cell tracked only a few miles north of there. And to think that *some* people out there claim he doesn't know how to forecast. ;-)

Severe Event Today - S OK & N TX

2030Z UPDATE: SPC is really upping the ante for a tornado event in the Red River Valley area north of I-20 and roughly the I-35 corridor eastward. The heating has been strong as well as deep moisture in place with CAPE in the 1500-2000 range. LCLs will be a little high early on due to the pronounced dewpoint depressions, but that will quickly change as the sun sets. Even the NWS-FTW is hitting the tornado threat too in their afternoon AFD. I agree....tough to argue with this one. This is going to be a wild ride. Watch box and text follows:

BOX: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0783_overview.gif

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THRU WRN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. SFC DEW POINTS ARE INCREASING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER REGION AND SFC PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO N CENTRAL TX. SPECIAL 19Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWS RUC MODEL IS PRETTY CLOSE IN ESTIMATING THAT MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY ALSO OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES OUT AHEAD OF IT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING.

19Z UPDATE: Dryline a little more sluggish in it's eastward advance, but it appears to be picking up steam now as mixing is kicking in. Field of enhanced cumulus from near San Angelo up to near Duncan, OK is indicative of convection ready to fire up in an hour or two.

Now that clouds have cleared out across N TX and the tropical moisture surges northward bringing mid 60Td to the Red River Valley and temps jumping into the mid 80's, instabilities are increasing rapidly. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows SB CAPE of 2000 within the aforementioned cumulus field. Skies here in N Dallas have become partly cloudy with lots of puffy cumulus indicative of ample, deep moisture and peaking instabilities. So, I see no reason whatsoever that CAPE values indeed will reach 2000-2500 across N TX and into S OK for this event.

With the 0-1km and 0-3km SREH values exceeding 300, the stage is set for a significant severe weather event including several tornadoes....possibly one or two intense. Folks in the DFW metro area need to pay close attention!!!

I expect to see a few cells erupt between Weatherford and Waurika by 4:30pm and quickly go severe and rotate. i wouldn't be surprised to see the first tornado warning go out by 5:30.

Latest model runs of the RUC and NAM pretty much bullseye the Red River Valley today. Both models have shifted the jet energy further south across this area with impressive SRH values from 300-400 with troopical moisture rapidly surging into this area by 00Z. CAPE values at that time should be near 1500 which is sufficient. Also, both models put the brakes on the eastward surging dryline and lining up near the I-35 corridor. This is always a dangerous setup in that repeated or stationary supercell generation occurs over the same area. However, will the storms be able to get rooted along it and not race off to the NE? It's a tough call, but I think storms will fire repeatedly along the dryline and zip of to the NE. The shear is way too strong with only 1500 CAPE to allow stationary supercells to root on the dryline.

I agree with the SPC 10% tornado threat, but would extend it a tad west to around Ardmore to Fort Worth. It is certainly going to be wild ride this evening and overnight for N TX and S OK areas to the NE into Arkansas and E OK. My target today? McKinney, Texas....my house. LOL!! I am thinking that the Red River counties of Texas are in the hot spot. Wow. Chasing in my own backyard here in the latter half of September. That sounds like some far-fetched B-movie plot. ;-)

I'll update this afternoon if I can.

Significant Severe Events?

The NAM just upped the ante this evening for a multi-day severe weather event in the central and southern plains. The biggest question has been moisture return and resultant instability, and this evening's run is more aggressive with moisture return.

Upstairs, a very potent and strong negative tilt low will crash into Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow. The dynamics are highly conducive for a significant tornado outbreak for Thursday and a distinct severe weather threat for Friday and Saturday as a broad trough quickly carves itself out across the Rockies and plains. With repeated spokes of energy rotating through the base and a front and dryline sloshing around, this has all the ingredients for a major severe weather event 3 days in a row.

For tomorrow, I'm wondering if the mid and upper level winds will be too strong for the marginal instabilities expected in OK and KS with CAPE <= 1000 j/Kg? I've seen that happen too many times before where weaker updrafts are sheared right off at the top. However, the vertical velocities and deep layer lift should compensate for that. I've seen that happen before too. :-) I expect to see a few tornadoes tomorrow, but not a "significant" outbreak....but I say that with caution too. With SREH exceeding well over 300 tomorrow from N TX into KS, the atmosphere will rotate easily. (you degreed mets out there...don't roll your eyes...you know what I mean). I actually think the risk for a N TX tornado threat is almost equal to KS and OK due to the weaker mid level winds and better moisture/instability profiles along with a stationay dryline by late afternoon parked over the area. I will be chasing.

For Friday, instabilities increase and a nice right entrance jet region becomes established over the stationary dryline with adequate veering profiles to get things rotating. I'm sure some outflow boundaries will be around to make it even more fun. It doesn't look as "dangerous" as tomorrow's setup, but still looks like an active severe weather day for the northern half of TX and OK.

Saturday is a little less of a threat and looks more like a squall and widespread precip event as the front dives into TX. That's still a ways out though.

As usual, an update in the morning. Time to wake up and get that chase gear ready!!!! This looks like more fun than we ever had since early May....and perhaps the entire 2006 spring season....especially for my Okie Homies. :-)

Farewell To A Hero

The world bid a final farewell to a true hero yesterday. Steve Irwin, the "Crocodile Hunter", was honored in a public memorial service at the Australian Zoo's Crocoseum. It was fitting tribute but also tough to watch his close friends and family, especially his widow Terri, still in deep anguish over their loss. After all, over the past 10 years, they all beamed into our living rooms and became like friends as they offered intimate glimpses into their personal lives as they grew. ...the good and the bad. In addition, they provided entertainment and education with a unique style and flare that nobody else has or ever will match. It is truly amazing in how well they connected with people across all races and continents. They were honest and real.

He was extremely passionate about wildlife conservation and literally moved mountains in educating and motivating millions of people around the globe to share his passion and purpose. Even more important is the fact that he made a tremendous positive impact on the next generation to become empassioned about wildlife conservation including the "scary" critters like snakes and crocodiles. As an adult and a big kid at heart myself, I've certainly learned alot from Steve Irwin. I always enjoyed and benefitted from watching his shows.

If that weren't enough, he was also the best visible role model for kids and even adults in the past decade. I try hard to think of any other person that would come close and I can't. Pro athletes often fall short with greed, selfishness, and drug problems. Actors or politicians? Puh-leeze. Steve Irwin never had any vices and exuded nothing but compassion, love, consideration, responsibility, strength, strong family values, honesty, humbleness, kindness, etc. He also spent millions of dollars as a result of his fame and reinvested right back into wildlife conservation and education to further his life's mission. He never let fame or notoriety corrupt him even the slightest bit..and instead used it to perpetuate his message. He was always just being his true self. The world has lost a true hero in many respects.

Crikey! We'll certainly miss you, bloke. RIP, mate.

Some Severe Weather This Weekend?

A few model runs have stirred many a chaser from their summer slumber. I've actually looked at the models in more detail for the first time since June. However, everything is focused on the Minnesota and NW Iowa area for Saturday. Even then, meager instabilities and strong linear forcing looks more like a squall up there...and certainly a world away for this chaser. I really don't care. LOL!! Then, some severe possibilities for Missouri and possibly NE OK and N AR on Sunday where a right entrance jet region juxtaposed over the frontal boundary and meager instabilities.

The big problem is that the lower levels of the atmosphere have cooled faster than the mid levels. This is typical for fall and why it is so hard to get a good setup as instabilities are too often meager at best. The mid levels are warmed up by all of the "warm season" convection and longer heating. I first learned of this back in 1998 from a presentation by Dr. Doswell. However, we also benefit from having "bath water" sea surface temperatures in the GOM basin and a deep tropical airmass always poised to race northward.

Right now, the -5C line at 500mb sits right across Texas. With surface temps in the 80's and lower 90's, there just isn't much in the way of lapse rates and instabilities possible with that kind of profile. We'll have to have a deep trough move alot further southward to even get us down into the -10C range or better.

There is just enough though for some marginally severe thunderstorms to form along the front. In fact, enough low-level forcing and lift will exist with the front along with ample moisture and mid level dynamics associated with the right entrance region of mid and upper jets to produce a pretty decent rain event from Missouri into Texas on Sunday as depicted by the NAM. However, as mentioned above, anything "severe" will be marginal at best. Yawn. I'll keep an eye on things though as the event approaches. I've learned to never be arrogant with mother nature. ;-)

However, the upper air pattern looks to remain fairly active and dynamic for the next couple of weeks. The GFS and ECMWF are beginning to show some prety interesting trends regarding the latter part of next week into next weekend. If the GFS has the right idea, and I have little reason right now to dismiss it, then a more legitimate "chaseable" scenario unfolds with a sharp and vigorous trough diving into the southern Rockies and into the southern and central plains. The GFS seems to be having a bias towards digging troughs too much in the past few weeks....something to keep in mind. As of now, it's just something to keep an eye on. With gas prices plummeting right now, it certainly makes those long chase trips more appealing. :-)

Could this be an early sign of the new El Nino pattern that is beginning to establish itself? We'll see. It would be nice to have a couple of chase opportunities this fall. I'd be just peachy with alot of rainfall. There are plans around North Texas to move into a Stage 4 drought contingency plan soon. More on that in another blog rambling. ;-)

9-11-01 We Will Never Forget

I had just arrived at work in downtown Dallas that morning. As I walked into the lobby, the news had just started coming in. A coworker asked if I had heard about the report of a plane flying into a New York skyscraper. I was shocked to say the least, but the only thing in my mind was that a small plane must have hit or clipped it....an accident.

Soon after reaching my desk, it quickly became apparent that this was no accident. We all huddled around the TV and watched in absolute horror as the second plane smashed into the other tower. That very moment changed my life and millions of others in the US and the world. I knew that we were under attack and that we were caught completely off-guard. We were at war. But with who? What was next?


Not too long afterwards, the nightmare became even more horrific when it was apparent that people were leaping to their deaths rather than burn alive. Innocent civilians who had come to work that day just like I did were dying en masse. I can't even describe my emotions at that moment because I was numb with shock. But, anger and rage were quickly welling up inside.

The nightmare continued to unfold and worsen even more as the twin towers then collapsed. I couldn't believe my eyes. This could NOT be happening! For the next hour or so, I was in just complete shock. I can't even remember what I did for that period of time. The next thing I remember is that I am filled with immense rage and anger. I was ready to take up arms and fight. I seriously contemplated the fact that this could be all-out war breaking out. When the Pentagon was hit, the thought of leaving my job and my life as I knew it and enlisting in the armed services seemed very realistic at the time. I mean, after all, we still didn't know who was attacking us and what other attacks were yet to unfold. What other cities were going to get hit? Would we next see a mushroom cloud over Chicago or D.C.?

After a few hours, I decided that being in Downtown Dallas wasn't a good idea. It took quite awhile, but I managed to make it out on the light rail system I had come in on. It was packed as people in droves were getting the heck out of the city. I finally got back to the security of my home in McKinney where I immersed myself in all of the cable news networks and the internet. I'll never forget how my entire sense of reality was plunged violently into the surreal. I'll never forget the day where the birds flew the skies alone.

For the next few months, I was constantly uneasy about being in downtown Dallas. I along with everybody else having to work down there were paranoid. If I saw anybody taking a photo of any building, I would freak out. Many people were stopped and even detained doing this. Police were everywhere and on every corner. I was constantly scanning for anybody acting suspicious. I stopped riding the train for awhile. The stress level was pretty high to say the least.

It is extremely unfortunate that today, a considerable number of people in this country forgot (or never learned to begin with) the horrific tragedy that shook this country to it's core. Many do not understand or want to admit that we are at war. it's a different, new kind of war...but war it is. An organized effort of many thousands of people seek to wipe us off the face of the earth.....literally. It is their "holy mission" to do so. They've said so on numerous occasions in written statements, web sites and video tape. To deny this, as an alarming number of people continue to do, is uncomprehensible to me. This was the worst attack ever on the soil of this country and completely unprovoked (unless you believe some of the liberal whacko nutcases out there). It was our generation's "Pearl Harbor".

We are still at war. The recent plot uncovered by the Brits is clear evidence of that. The enemy is continually trying to thwart our defenses and exploit holes in out security. It's shocking of course that the liberals/dems in this country shriek that it is just fear-mongoring by the Republicans. I do wonder what it will take for them to finally admit that the fear is real. A couple of mushroom clouds over major cities in the US? More planes flying into buildings? What is their "threshold" of reality? Amazingly, 9/11/01 wasn't enough.

Perhaps I underestimate their true, deep hatred for all things George Bush which blinds them to reality and severely undermines the effort to defeat OUR enemies. I dunno. I am though sick and tired of our news media such as the New York Times et al working feverishly to undermine the war effort by exposing our surveillance and tracking techniques of the enemy (starting in the late 90's with reavealing to the world how were were tracking Osama by cell phone). If I was Al Queda, screw intelligence operatives infiltrating the US Government. Just subscribe to the NYT who are very entusiastic in publishing every secret leaked by traiterous members of our government. I can just see some headlines of the NYT if it had been in WW2: "US Building Secret System to Detect Enemy Aircraft At Long Distances Called 'RADAR'"......or....."US Intelligence Agency Captures German Decoding Machine. Hopes To Decipher German Transmissions".

Of course, a heavy liberal slant in the media since 9/11 could certainly be to blame. The Media Research Center has just released their study of the media reporting on the "War On Terror" for the past few years. The results are pretty damning, yet not a surprise to me. Read for yourself: http://www.mrc.org/SpecialReports/2006/report090806_p1.asp Yep, liberals' deep hatred for all things George Bush blinding them to reality is pretty apparent here. For me, all I want is a more balanced and objective media to strive in presenting BOTH sides of the issues and stories. It's called "journalism".

So, after already getting political here in my blog, something I vowed I wouldn't ever do, I'll stop it there. There are plenty of places on the internet to scream about Iraq and your hatred of all things George Bush. I'll not allow that crap on my blog. You won't change my mind and I know I won't change yours. Period. If you insist, you might want to read: http://www.cnn.com/US/9609/05/terror.plot/ as well as reflect upon the First World Trade Center bombings. Guess who was in office then? So don't spew off about who didn't do anything to prevent 9/11. Everybody is a fault.

I'll close now by offering my thoughts and prayers for the victims and survivors of 9/11/01. I pray for my country and for the world. I will never forget. I hope we all never forget. For our brave military men and women around the world taking the fight to the enemy: "We sleep safe in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." - George Orwell

Are You Ready For Some FOOTBALL?!!!

I'm excited to have the NFL season kick off this Thursday! This will also be my first season to get serious about Fantasy Football as well. I'm in three leagues with one each at ESPN, Fox Sports and at work. I wanted to do the NFL, but I waited too long as the next drafts don't start until September 12th..well after the season gets under way. I thought that was pretty lame. Anyway, I've done my drafts for ESPN and at work. Fox is this Wednesday for my league.

Here is my ESPN team. I did really well in the draft, except I'm thin in the RB lineup. It's not bad with Willie Parker in there, but Antowain Smith got cut from Houston today. Not Good. However, I snagged several strong QBs and WRs which I expect to trade out for a solid RB....might even throw in one of my star kickers to get what I want in a RB. A couple of teams in my leagues are hurting in either position but have a couple of RBs I'm interested in. I'm sure they'll be eager to trade. :-)

QB Eli Manning, NYG
QB Brad Johnson, MIN
QB Steve McNair, BAL
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
RB Willie Parker, PIT
RB Antowain Smith, HOU
WR Terry Glenn, DAL
WR Randy Moss, OAK
WR Santana Moss, WAS
WR Eddie Kennison, KC
TE Jermaine Wiggins, MIN
TE Stephen Alexander, DEN
D/ST Dallas
D/ST Pittsburgh
K Jay Feely, NYG
K Jason Elam, DEN

This is my team in the league at work. Overall, I'm pretty happy with it. I might try to improve the QB lineup by trading out a WR and/or TE.

QB Tom Brady, NE
QB Jake Plummer, DEN
RB Steven Jackson, STL
RB Thomas Jones, CHI
RB Willis McGahee, BUF
WR Antonio Bryant, SF
WR Santonio Holmes, PIT
WR Chad Johnson, CIN
WR Eddie Kennison, KC
WR Santana Moss, WAS
TE Jerramy Stevens, SEA
TE Jason Witten, DAL TE
K Billy Cundiff, GB
K Matt Stover, BAL
D/ST, Washington
D/ST, Tampa Bay

The FoxSports draft is tomorrow, but my league doesn't have enough teams yet to qualify. It's no biggie if it doesn't. Two teams are enough to keep me busy. :-)

Certified Shocker & Chest Thumper

Motivated in part by the May 9th Collin County tornado disaster, I completed standard first aid and CPR/AED training this week. If you're not sure what AED is, it stands for "Automated External Defibrillators". My certification is good for two years through the American Heart Association. The training was provided by my company which is required by OSHA for operating an AED. I'm allows me to be one of the three designees on my floor to render first aid and using an AED if necessary.

I was kind of hesitant about AEDs in how they worked and how to use them in an emergency. I discovered just how simple they are to use! The training really was nothing more than just a walk through in turning it on, pad placement (which is clearly illustrated on the pads themselves), making sure everybody stands clear, and listen to the AED tell you what to do. It monitors the patient's heart rhythm and it tells you if a shock is needed. It's pretty much idiot proof...even for this idiot. With AEDs costing around $1500 and less, I hope to see more and more of these being installed in public places. Heck, it is affordable enough to carry one with you or keep at home. They have a model out now that is $900 and I found one on eBay for $700. I'm thinking about getting one...seriously.

The CPR training was good. I'm relieved to know it now...especially with lightning being the major stormchasing hazard. I've often feared that a chase partner or another chaser I meet out there would get zapped and I wouldn't know CPR. Being a hundred or more miles from a hospital is not uncommon in our hobby.

They used to teach you to try and find the rib cage and follow it to the sternum as the "target". Now they say just line up between the nipples to start CPR thus avoiding wasting critical time. I had always been hesitant to know how much to depress. The rule of thumb in the training class is that people often don't push hard enough...that it's better to push a little too hard. You need a full two inches of compression to do any good. And, yes, you are going to hear a little "crunching" and "cracking" when you are doing it. It's not unusual to crack a couple of ribs doing CPR. They will heal.

The first aid was basic and applied mostly to what you would expect in an office work environment from minor to modrate injury and various illnesses like diabetes. I need to get some additional training for more serious and trauma-related injuries that would be expected in a tornado disaster. The Red Cross offers these certification classes which was recommended by the instructor of my class this week. It's only $50. I'll be signing up for that soon to round out my training and knowledge. I'll also be buying a good, well-stocked first aid kit to keep in the vehicle too.

I'm certainly no EMT or paramedic by any means and don't intend to be. But, I never want to be in an emergency or disaster situation ever again without having the knowlege, training, equipment and supplies to offer proper aid until the professionals arrive. Then I can help out with the lesser injuries and let the pros focus on the serious stuff.