New & Improved Ridge-B-Gone!

There should be lots of celebratory events this week as I and my fellow Texans rejoice in the glorious demise of the vicious and relentless upper level ridge that has had us in it's oppressive grip for several months. We bid a fond farewell as numerous 100F days will become history. Good riddence!!

In fact, this week will see highs at or below 90F for the next couple of days with a slow warm up...but still below the century mark. Then, another even more significant front is poised to move through over the weekend. The models are indicating that the severe summer heat wave may in fact be over with for the year. That is extremely odd saying that with it still being late August. I've seen 100F before into early October. However, the models out through September 8th are keeping the upper air pattern in place and a parade of fronts and drier, cooler air filtering in. That would leave only a narrow window for any more oppressive heat before October arrives. I feel safe in proclaiming that summer is waning pretty fast. I for one welcome the seasonal change....even if it is early.

Now, I wonder what kind of severe season we'll have this fall? We are certainly starting off with an early upper air pattern change. It is relatively active for this time of year. In fact, it looks more like a late September and early October pattern to me. I'll just be glad to actually have some "weather" around here for a change. I hope it brings more rain.

The Great Debate - Global Warming

Addendum 8/21: New Danish study suggests Greenland's glaciers have been melting for the past 100 years or more. This would contradict the popular theory of recent global warming: Read the story here.

One indisputable conclusion is that the climate is in a recent warming trend overall. Things get crazy though when people start trying to determine the repercussions and effects of a warming trend as well as the cause of it.

My short answer is: "We don't know for sure". The truth of the matter is, despite Al Gore's myopic and biased piece of propoganda An Inconvenient Truth which ignored a large segment of the scientific community's opposing input and rebutted by MIT atmospheric scientist Richard Lindzen (what a heckuva contradiction in a movie title, eh?), we really do not have all of the answers. It makes no sense whatsoever to believe anybody does completely. Global climate study is in a relatively infantile stage as are relatively accurate weather records....150 years at best. Yet, I still see staunch advocates on either side of the debate relying on recorded weather records for less than 100 years. Given that the earth is billions of years old, that is a pretty miniscule amount of statistical data, don't you think? LOL!!!

To underscore my point, the Atlantic tropical season activity is now BELOW AVERAGE much to the chagrin of the hysterical environmental alarmists which predicted an even worse 2006 season. Even this statistic is based strictly on hurricane data from 1944 (only a 50 year average!!) including the 2005 "most active season ever". It's almost as if Mother Nature is determined to prove us wrong every time we are arrogant enough to believe that we have her completely figured out. Arguably, the inactive season (so far!) could actually be in part due to global warming as a huge plume of Saharan Desert dust has spread out all over the breeding ground areas of the Atlantic basin helping to disrupt the processes which generate hurricanes in that area....the most important of which is the sea surface temperatures running below normal. This is the theory at least supported by a part of the scientific community.

Speaking of which, the scientific community is pretty divided over the issue. Now that some of the intimidation and bullying of scientists with opposing ideas has subsided, more and more are courageously speaking out. Here is a good journalistic piece on the issue which presents both sides of the issue...something quite rare nowadays in the media circus. Read the Washington Post article.

For the record, I am convinced we should take global warming very seriously and do what we can to not contribute to or exacerbate the problem. Greatly reducing the crap we pour into the air by burning fossil fuels or anything the might adversely affect the ozone layer is the logical and smart thing to do even without any hard-core scientific evidence to support it one way or the other....it's just basic, common horse sense.

I am concerened with the climate changes we are witnessing right now. We should err on the side of caution in our efforts to reduce our possible contributions to it. However, we should not do so with hysteric-based theories nor based on narrow-minded science that is still in it's analysis stages. It's even worse to try and suppress, ignore or dismiss "unpopular" scientific research and opinions in this debate. It's that whole "open-minded" thing. ;-) After all, solid climate study has clearly shown extreme swings in the earth's climate over the past millenium. Some of that is now being correlated to extreme volcanic activity during those periods. So, who's to say we aren't in just a normal climate fluctuation right now? But, as I said earlier, it's not wise to assume that we can continue pumping tons of pollutants into the atmosphere without retribution from Ma Nature.

In summary, we really don't have all of the answers...just lots of good theories supported by a microscopic amount of data across a millenia's worth. I think once everybody agrees on that and starts working together insted of pushing agendas or individual career/political aspirations, we'll all be better off in the long run. The media could certainly help by being much more journalistic instead of pumping out sensational regurgitation of their own biasis.

"Wind-Driven Water Damage"

If you have homeowner's insurance like me, you had better do some double-checking on the details of your policy....and don't take your agent's word for it. Unfortunately, you just nearly have to have a law degree anymore to decipher it accurately. That of course partly due to a defensive reaction stemming from our litigous-frenzied society in which people sue for anything and everything including spilling hot coffee in your crotch. The policy legal complexity also better allows insurance companies to screw people over by denying coverage. Here is a perfect case in point:

Hurricane Katrina Court Battle

The dispute centers around an ambiguous clause that the insurance company, in this case "Nationwide", carefully worded in the policy to exclude coverage for "wind-driven water damage". This is being used to deny a Hurricane Katrina victim's claim for wind damage. Unfortunately, a judge ruled in the insurance company's favor. So, out of about $130,000 damage, they are only going to get $3,000 for "wind damage". The rest of the damage, as I read it, is a result of "wind-driven rain" or storm surge.

So, as the article points out, you lose your roof by wind, that's covered. But the "wind driven rain" soaking the rest of the house, inside and out, isn't covered. Nationwide and other insurance carriers claim that their policies do not cover a combination of wind and water damage. Again, that is very vague and allows them plenty of room for legal maneuvering based on semantics.

Residents in tornado alley should pay heed because if a tornado rips your roof off and then two inches of rain soaks the interior and ruins it, are you fully covered? I used to think so, but not any more. Regulations vary in each state and this particular policy in Mississippi might not even be an issue elsewhere in other states which might require more explicit language and prohibit such shenannigans. But, it certainly should be a wake up call to double check. Insurance companies are always working hard to pry open legal loopholes in state regulations.

I thought flood insurance was just that...for floods. I also know that as a result of the "black mold" hysteria in Texas a few years ago, you must purchase additional water damage insurance in this state to cover things like busted faucets, water heaters, etc. ...but the last time I checked, it wasn't required for house less than 10 years old like mine. I wonder if that is still true?

So, the insurance shell games continue unabated. It's fast becoming one of the headaches of being a homeowner as well as the MOST important thing to consider and monitor. As the victims listed in the news story found out, all of your equity and investment that you work so hard for most of your life can disappear in the blink of an eye...never to be recovered.....all thanks to a greedy insurance company and it's legal minefield of exclusions and exceptions. A company whose mottos might be:

"Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there"

"Nationwide is on your side"

"You're in good hands with Allstate"

I disagree with the judge's ruling. Although I certainly didn't preside for 8 days over this case and immersed in all of the details and legal arguments from both sides, there is a tried and true legal precedent that I think he is not considering. That is "the intent and spirit" of any agreement should weigh heavily in a decision. Here, with such an ambiguous policy statement as the judge himself pointed out, I would weigh the intent and spirit of the policy agreement in this case in favor of the policy holders who were only asking for 1/3 of the total damages related to wind. I can't help but think that this is a fair settlement for both sides.

I would hope that ethical lawyers (is that a contradiction, or what?) somewhere, or at least a lawfirm short on it's required pro bono quota, will pick up this case and escalate it to a higher court and overturn this judge's poor decision.

Now, the insurance companies have a "precedent" in which to fight other homeowner policy claims for hurricane damage. I'm certain that they'll turn their vulture eyes upon other "opportunities" with various types of storm-related damage all around the country. We should all beware and read through our homeowner policies with a magnifying glass and ask questions...lots of questions...and from several different insurance company representatives. Call it a "proactive defensive measure". The time to ask questions and learn the details is not when you need to make a claim. Not to sound preachy here, I'm also talking to myself. ;-)

Look...up in the sky...it's...

RAIN!!! On the fourth day this week of rain scattered across North Texas, mainly north of I-20, my neighborhood FINALLY got some real rain (noted as the small red target). Three of the days this week, I watched in agony as storms would fire up all within 20 miles of my house and yet somehow manage to do some incredible maneuvers in avoiding my house. It's been like that all year long.

Anyway, it was a pretty good thunderstorm as an added bonus with nice special effects. ;-) A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for it because of 60mph winds. I didn't get that, but I heard a few trees were down not too far to my west. I received about 1/2 inch with areas to my west by about 3 miles getting a good drenching of an inch or more. At least I can go another week without watering the yard.

Perhaps another shot tomorrow, but I'm not holding my breath. Today was a freakish anomaly. You know, I don't mind Texas summers that much after living here all of my life. We at least typically get a good drenching up into May and even parts of June to get us through. But, this spring and summer I'll be ready to bid farewell to one of the most hellish summers I've ever experienced. I can start to see September in the near distance which will at least serve as a benchmark that summer is on it's last leg.

I'm ready for a long, cold winter. It seems to me that there is a correlation with really cold winters followed by a very active severe weather season. We have certainly seen the opposite of that with very warm winters followed by dry and inactive springs. Rich Thompson of the SPC has surmised that colder temperatures out over the GOM serve to pickup tons more moisture. It's the same principle of those cold early fall mornings where you see tons of fog over the warmer bodies of lakes. Of course, you don't want it brutally cold either to severely drop the GOM sea surface temparatures excessively.

Last year, cold air never made it out over the GOM basin and surrounding Caribbean and western Atlantic waters. The result of course was an abundance of drier air across this part of the world. Again this is based on what I read from Rich Thompson. I certainly agree with that. It is something that I believe isn't being looked at too closely by climatologists and most people in general....at least I never see or hear it being discussed. I wish I had the time to do an anlysis of the 1930's Dust Bowl era and compare that to the past couple of years. Just analyzing surface charts I think would be very interesting...especially since upper air data was relegated only to pilot reports back then.

We have to have something to really shake up the atmosphere on this side of the equator. A brutal winter just might be what is needed.

Lightning Zaps Minivan & "TBF Chris"

This is one of the most amazing video clips I've seen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUUOdO6eEZA

Nobody was hurt. This is a classic "Faraday Cage" effect demonstrated in real life. This should be some pretty compelling evidence to stay inside your vehicle with any threat of lightning around. As stormchasers, this is in reality the most hazardous part of our "hobby"...aside from critter collisions, idiot drivers, or irate/psychotic members of the "stormchasing community". ;-) After a very close call with a CG bolt this past year on May 1, I'm going to be acquiring a couple of window camera mounts and point my lenses at the fury of mother nature from within the safety of my vehicle.

As far as the "Tropical Bird Fart" formerly known as TS Chris, it just nearly became a hurricane only to dissipate into a gentle tropical breeze. The models for the most part were actually pretty accurate in the long run in showing it completely dissipating. Now, not even the remnants are discernable now...not even an area of slightly lower pressures or wind direction difflections. Nada. It has ceased to be. I think in addition to the shear, Chris suffered mostly from the northern hemispheric "dry air curse" that plagued most of the 2006 severe storm season.

However, the season is still young and interestingly, the "official season forecast" for a busy hurricane season has been downgraded significantly now to only 7 hurricanes (down from 9) with only 15 named storms (down from 17). Good news of course for all of the US coastal regions under seige since 2004. They could use a long respite. But, with September being the climatological peak for tropical activity, we have a ways to go.

In the meantime, yet another rain event across Northern Texas yesterday managed once again to soak the same exact areas again and totally avoid my withering yard. This is like the 10th event to do so in a row. For my neighbors in SE Collin County, about 15-20 miles away, this is the 10th time in a row they've gotten relatively significant rains. If bookies took bets on rainfall for my yard, I'd be at about 100 to 1 odds right now. ;-) Today is looking like an even better chance for the entire region....but I fear once aagain I will watch the precipitation on radar dance, contort and even "bend" around the little red cross mark on radar that is my house. I'm cursed. the last significant rain I've received at my house was the middle part of March with a couple of inches. I think I may have gotten a grand total of one inch since then.

If this keeps up, I'll have to convert my yard to an "El Paso" yard...full of decorative rocks and gravel with a variety of desert cactii. Speaking of which, the El Paso area recently got deluged with 6-8 inches of rain in a few days causing severe flooding and even mudslides. That's about as much rain as they see all year long. So, there's hope for me yet. LOL!!

N TX Skywarn & TS Chris

I paid a visit to the NWS office in Fort Worth last week to drop off my video and picture donations for Gary Woodall's always-excellent Skywarn program for 2007. After chatting with him and reviewing my video, I'm going to resubmit a couple of clips with more brightness/contrast adjustment which appear too dark for a projector system display. I'm also submitting a time lapse clip of the second tornado from the 6/12/05 nader fest. I've donated video of the first four significant tornadoes from that event including the multi-spinups under the meso.

Adding to the list are the 4/24/06 Charlie, TX tornado; still pics of the "flying saucer" mesos in Stephens/Palo Pinto counties of 5/1/06; damage pics from the 5/5/06 100mph+ downburst event in Cooke County, a few lignting photos; and two clips from the tragic night of 5/9/06 in Collin County with an edited slo-mo clip of the lightning-illuminated beasts and a full video clip of almost the entire chase complete with the "loud and clear" Skywarn audio traffic.

I hope that my donated material will find a good place in the new 2007 training program for both the basic and advanced courses. Anybody that knows me knows full well that I take this aspect of my "hobby" seriously. We have endured many consecutive lackluster severe weather seasons around these parts, so keeping the public and spotters in this area as updated and educated as possible is more important than ever. (Maybe we can even do something about the bubble-headed TV-mets and clueless media we are cursed with here in DFW! LOL!) That includes making each pre-season training sessions new and fresh. In that regard, a huge credit goes to Gary Woodall, Al Moller, and the staff at the NWS Fort Worth in somehow outdoing themselves each and every year with perhaps the best spotter training sessions in the country. There is even something interesting in the works too that all of the EOC managers in this area have been asking for. Watch for details on that.

One year soon, the severe weather season will return with a vengence in these parts. May 9th of this year should be a major wake-up call. I hope to see even bigger turn-outs at the spotter training sessions next year. However, an outstanding NWS office and Skywarn nets won't do much good without a good media outlet to relay the information. We need a MAJOR overhaul of most our goofy and "inadequate" media weather teams here in DFW. It's a battle that will never be won in my opinion. After all, stupidity en masse is a formidable opponent...especially when 90% of complacent viewers in DFW are concerned more with missing an "American Idol" episode than being warned about a possible tornado approaching them or affecting their neighbors. A flood of threatening and irate phone calls to the TV station ensue with each and every weather break-in. So, I can't fairly lay complete blame on the media. However, for next season, I'll be trying to do some "Tivo" recording during local severe weather events to capture some examples of what I keep harping about. I welcome any donations to the cause. ;-)

OK...enough ranting about that. On to tropical stuff.....

If it weren't for tropical season in the long dog days of summer, I think I'd just go into a catatonic state and hibernate until the jet stream begins to wander through the southern plains again. So far, TS Chris has ignored the NHC forecasters and most of the models in general. It's a very tough forecast to say the least. Chris keeps defying the odds and conventional forecast wisdom.

The trend now is getting interesting. As I write this, the IR imagery is looking more impressive. I'm thinking he'll gain the notorious "H" status by tomorrow. Additionally, the models are starting to line up and indicate a more left turn in the track through Hispanola and emerging south of Cuba. It appears that the large expansive ridging will be stronger to the north of Chris thus steering him more westerly over time. Based on how strong the ridge has been this year and the long range forecasts, it is starting to look like Chris just may make a trek towards Texas.

As devestating and brutal this relentless record-breaking drought has been for my home state, a hurricane coming ashore and slowly trekking up through the heart of the Lone Star State would actually be MORE beneficial than harmful...even as a CAT 3 (if it doesn't zero in on Houston). We need copious amounts of rain and at this point, it appears the only way we are going to get any significant amounts. We have to fill up our reservoirs that are going dry right now. Another 6-7 months like we had in the last part of 2005 into 2006 and we'll be declaring Marshall Law on water rationing. This doesn't even begin to account for the massive wildfires we'll see. "God's country" will be turned into the bowels of hell.

Pray for Hurricane Chris.