CHASECATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's finally here. I'm heading to Amarillo early in the morning to start things off. After tomorrow and beyond? Well, follow my adventures (or misadventures) on

MY 2006 CHASE BLOG!! :-)

I've read alot of doomsday discussions and fears of LCLs halfway to the moon and even considerations of Canadian excursions. One of the few things I've learned over the years is not to take the models at 100% face value even 24 hours out. With high enough instabilities and a stationary boundary, gimme 25-30 knots of mid level winds (of course I'll take a little stronger! LOL) and I'm ecstatic this time of year. Too many times the models miss a weak impulse or slightly underforecast mid level winds. With a broad trough to the west, it's a guarantee that lots of impulses will ripple across. If the model *trends* are correct with the mid level wind forecasts and surface features, I'll be having a blast out in KS/NE for the next 7 days.

If you don't see your blog listed in the right hand column, it's because I wrecked the code and don't have time to fix it. I will when I get back. Don't freak.

This is my last blog entry here until I return and mold myself back into an 8-5 routine again. :-)

(and anybody reading this thinking of breaking into my house, I've got a monitored security system and a police officer as a neighbor. You get to guess which shift he works. LOL!)

Long Overdue Update

Finally getting around to a blog update! I've been busy preparing to depart on my chasecation this weekend. Work projects need to get wrapped up as well as personal logistics regarding house sitting and last minute chase vehicle preparation. One of the things I've been busy with is getting my 2006 chase accounts and video clips all updated after revamping the format. Check out at texastailchaser.com and click on "CHASES" on the top menu bar. In reviewing my video and SPC storm reports, I've confirmed the tornado SW of Eastland, TX on May 5. I stated earlier that I had caught on video the tornado near Tonganoxie, KS on April 15. Closer scrutiny of the video and the timestamp related to the reports doesn't make sense. One single lightning flash just right revealed that it was a clever scud tag. Since a tornado count is so critical in having your opinions or viewpoints validated nowadays, this is very very important. LOL!!

As far as my chasecation, I'm really getting excited about escaping the DFW metromess for awhile and immersing myself into the wide open skies of the plains in search of the most violent and spectacular supercells mother nature can stir up. I'm also looking forward to the splendid landscape scenary, the road trips, and the very spirit of being a modern day explorer and adventurer.

It seems every chasecation I encounter something unique, unusual or extremely interesting. In 2003, it was exploring the ghost town of Old Mobeetie in the eastern Texas Panhandle. This was one of the best "down day" excursions I've ever had. If you are a history buff, you owe it to yourself in stopping by and finding the old original jail, the first one in the Texas Panhandle, that is now a museum absolutely chock full of historical artifacts and stories. If you are lucky, the local curator and descendent of the original townfolk, Dale Corcoran, will meet you in person. His stories and tales are fascinating and intriguing. He has authored a written history about the town centered around it's well-maintained cemetary.

A few days later, we stumble upon a small, old abandoned "house" in the middle of a plowed Kansas field. We find some old artifacts all around it related to some sort of automotive repair place. A local rancher pulls up and during the course of conversastion, he tells us that it used to be a service station many years ago. I found a small glass vial which I kept as a momento. It still sits on my bookshelf in the living room.

In 2005, I traveled through South Dakota and the Badlands National Park as well as a quick tour through the infamous Wall Drug. I loved South Dakota for it's emerald green grasslands which make for an awesome foreground to a black/bluish/purplish/greenish supercell. That was an awesome sight last year! Down in Kansas, I made an amusing discovery of the world's largest ball of twine in Cawker City, Kansas.

It's these types of discoveries and encounters that fulfill the overall experience of a chasecation. Throw in a few tornadoes and incredible supercells and a breathtaking sunset or two, and for me personally, I can't imagine a better vacation. Seriously. Getting away from the infinite parking lots on DFW freeways is worth the trip alone. ;-)

On to other news and controversy, the chaser gang wars last week reached an all-time climax. I thought the United Nations would have have to intervene and negotiate a nuclear arms reduction treaty. LOL!!! Congrats to Steve Miller OK for busting an all-time record blog comment count of 136. My blog hits count skyrocketed too for some reason. ;-) This should certainly help with my google adsense revenue. Thanks, Steve and Donald! One observation I have is that we need some stormchaser trading cards! We can list stats such as miles of chasing, tornado counts, years chasing, all-star voting results (ranking), rookie season, best season, etc. That will come in handy for the next blog assault. Oh my....now I've done it. I've been a bad little stormchaser (as usual) and tipped over some sour milk. I think the internet ferrets have just reported me to the StormTroopers! Here they come!! Run for your lives!!! :-0

Anna/Westminster Updates

I'm here at the New Covenant Church in Anna where they have setup a benefit for the victims and rescuers. One of their members has setup a website to accept donations via PayPal: http://tornadoaid.org

You can also send a check or more importantly Gift Cards for the victims to:
New Covenant Church
c/o Tornado Aid
PO Box 1032
Anna, TX 75409

The Dallas Chapter of the American Red Cross is also setup to take online donations. CLICK HERE to donate.

In addition, the VFW Post in Van Alstyne is accepting donations and now asking for gift cards and monetary donations instead of clothing items. Channel 5 News was there, so that should be on the news tonight and hopefully some detailed info for donating there.

I was able to help with recovering some personal momentos today in one of the open fields near Pilot Grove at the end of the tornado's path. We didn't find much, but with all of the neighbors searching their fields as well, some precious sentimental items are being recovered. It seems like the cleanup efforts have enough volunteers and equipment to go around. I'm not hearing of any requests for help in that area as of now.

I spoke with a couple of the neighbors in Pilot Grove whose homes were immediatly southa nd southeast of the tornado's final path. They heard the tornado coming and instead of trying to find cover in a ditch or jumping in the bathtub, they got in their vehicles and traveled NORTH towards Whitewright directly into the path of the tornado....completely oblivious that they were doing so. They thought they were driving away from it. I told them both just how lucky they are to be alive. I don't think they realized the error of their ways until I told them. I took a picture today of a car which was mangled and wrapped around a tree. The lesson here is DO NOT GET INTO YOUR VEHICLE TO FLEE A TORNADO!!!!! Please get a battery operated weather radio and listen to that for the most instantaneous warnings...faster and more reliable than our broadcast media. It will likely give you that extra couple of minutes to seek proper shelter.

Anna/Westminster Tornadoes

NOTE: If you are reding this blog entry as a direct link, please note that additional updates can be found by clicking here.

UPDATE: Video clip added. It's been slowed down so you can better see the tornadoes illuminated by the lightning flashes. CLICK HERE.



Tragically, North Texans were reminded that we are indeed still part of tornado alley. An intense supercell spawned two violent tornadoes across northern Collin County and along the border of SE Grayson County. Sadly, 3 people lost their lives as a result. Damage was extensive and devastating with 26 houses destroyed. A couple of them had only the bare slab foundations remaining. I think many people, including myself, are quite thankful that the loss of life wasn't alot higher given the level of devastation and that most people are home on weekend nights. We should also consider the consequences if this had formed and moved just about 10-15 miles further south across McKinney/Princeton.

I was indeed chasing yesterday and observed/videoed these vicious twisters. Normally I would have been elated with such an exciting night chase. However, seeing your neighbors' lives turned upside down and even abruptly ended casts a dark shadow across your heart. This area is part of my stomping grounds and where I've spent a good part of my adult years. I've attended many garage sales, festivals, markets and wet a line in a few of the fishing holes around here. I love the people here in rural North Texas. This is my home.

I had ended up in Atoka County, Oklahoma for tornadic storm up there thinking that the cap here south of the Red River would hold since at 6:30pm, several attempts of updrafts to punch through failed miserably. Once in OK, the storm there was intense, but a heavily precipitating supercell. Any chance at chasing or catching a tornado would be through the mountains of E OK east of Atoka. It just wasn't working out. I saw the cell pop up on Grayson county and made my way back south since this was my earlier target area and a prime environment for something big to happen.

As I approached the Red River, the updraft structure was impressive with a spectacular lightning display. I debated with myself as to setup out in the rural outskirts in western Grayson county to do lightning photography and get in front of it. I chose the latter and proceeded to do an "end-around" of the cell to the east on Hwy11 down to 121 in Trenton and then south to Hwy 75 south of Anna. The storm was moving SE at this time and I thought it would continue doing so. This made for abit of apprehension in cutting dangerously close in front if it on 121.

I sat there on the shoulder of a rarely used overpass to watch the storm as it started taking on a better radar signature. The surface winds were fairly strong feeding into it and the instabilities were still volatile. A couple of radar scans later, and a hook started forming on it. The velocities on radar at all tilts started tightening up and increasing. I thought, "Here we go". Within minutes, a tornado warning was issued based on this radar signature. I could make out a rounded base forming with some "tendrils" underneath it. Just as I got ready to jump east to keep up with it (still thinking that this storm would move E or SE), a spotter reported a developing funnel and soon a power flash north of Anna. It had begun.

I got to 455 just south of the developing tornado and was greeted by a strong RFD blast from the west and then quickly some strong winds from the south. I was getting uneasy and fortunately 455 makes a little dogleg south before heading east again and I had some southward escape options. Then, the funnel quickly got organized and descended to form the first "visible" tornado. You could barely make it out with your eyes as the faint city lights from Anna partially illuminated it. The camera, even my VX2100, couldn't catch that faint of light (I should have switched to nightshot). But, it would become starkly visible as a silhouette against the background of an occasional lightning flash. My impression is that this isn't a typical night time tornado which is usually embedded in rain and very difficult to chase. This looked like something you'd see in the daytime in Kansas....a classic supercell structure with a tornado

I continued to chase it as I got onto 121 again towards Trenton now realizing the storm was moving more ENE and NE. I watched it lift briefly and then regenerate again and growing into a large, violent tornado. It became wrapped in rain and totally obscured just to the NW of Desert (as in Mojave) where it dissipated. In analyzing radar and the visual storm structure, I thought a new mesocyclone was about to develop right on top of me. I jogged eastward from Desert just in case. I ended up back in Trenton when I realized the storm was scooting off to the NE. There was an accident where a motorcyclist smashed into the side of a police cruiser. I think the guy is OK though. I called it quits to go back and document the damage thinking that I might find a few barns damaged and some trees uprooted on the outskirts of the damage path.

Anytime I've chased a tornado and it caused some serious damage, I always avoided the area because the amount of emergency help arriving was overwhelming and rapid. I would only be getting in the way. Last night, I thought pretty much the same thing because of it being rural. Pretty quickly though, the spotters who had been chasing it put it all in perspective quickly. It was clear that it was a helluva lot more serious than I thought. I knew that being a licensed ham operator along with my GPS could be a useful resource as well as being an extra body to help.

The first house/garage (you couldn't tell) I came to I drove up to it and illumintaed the area with my headlights and proceeded towards it to see if anybody needed help. Two sheriff deputies arrived right behind me. About that time, this pit bull approached us barking his head off. This idiot from next door yelled out "Hey! this is private property!" The deputies told him our intentions. But, Mr Idiot yelled back that "We don't need no help! Get off my property! This is private property!". The dog started advancing towards the deputies (I was back in the vehicle being the wuss I am when it comes to mean dogs...but then I didn't have a 9mm strapped to my hip either. LOL). They repeatedly told the stupid ahole that he needed to call of the dog or they would shoot him. They had their guns and pepper spray at the ready. Fortunately, the stupid moron called off the dog and things calmed down once we started to leave. Can you believe some people? Sheesh.

I then drove by another area where several homes were destroyed and now sealed off by law enforcement. The propane odor was ripe and quite pungent. CareFlite was about to land (this would be their staging area for the night). I came up on a road with several large, mangled trees strewn across it. I saw some flashlight beams down there so I called out and asked if any help was needed and if everybody was ok. Thankfully, everybody was. They recounted their incredible accounts of seeing and/or hearing it coming and then scrambling for their lives to seek shelter. A couple of guys came along and told me about the destroyed house with the trapped woman and her missing 14-year old son.

Along with two of the neighbors, we immediately volunteered to the Sheriff deputy there. He said to grab a flashlight and start searching a field for the boy that was in the house but now missing. They didn't know if he was tossed out or trapped under the debris of the house. They had just found the mother under the debris who was rushed to the CareFlite staging area.

After about 15 minutes of searching, the fire engine's horn was blasted to let us know they had found him. He was found trapped under the debris, but they did not know if he was alive. After about an hour, they were still trying to get him out. I and about 10 other people were willing to jump in and help, but there wasn't room and it would risk collapse. It became apparent though that the firefighters and deputies transitioned into recovery mode. His name was Colson Owens, a freshman at Van Alstyne High School. He had taken shelter under the stairwell of their two-story house. I pray for his family as they endure a long road to recovery.

The deputy thanked us for our help, so I drove around to see if I could help elsewhere. Fortunately, emergency vehicles from all surrounding communities and counties were on the scene. There was actually too much help because quite a few of them were staged in a waiting area in Westminster. I finished the night driving around the damaged areas to see if I could be of assitance and was impressed by how many emergency vehicles had descended on the area. McKinney, Sherman, Plano, and every other small town from within the county as well as all surrounding counties were there. My neighbors were in good hands. If any good comes out of this tragedy, it is the spirit and good nature of people shine through in a dazzling display of unselfish compassion and wanting to help in any way possible.

Some things I've pondered today that I want to do in the future include carrying a good first aid kit, boots, and heavy duty work gloves. It wouldn't take up much room in the vehicle yet would be critical if you ever need them. I was ill equipped last night in that regard. At least my spotlight came in handy as well as the flashlight. It's also been about 15 years since I took any sort of first aid course. It really disturbed me a great deal in that if I came upon somebody seriously wounded, I wouldn't be able to render proper aid. Fortunately, I didn't have to. I hope to rectify these deficiencies very soon.

Lastly, from what I've heard, most of our DFW weather personalities and their fellow media counterparts performed in a typical Three Stooges fashion when everything was breaking loose. I didn't observe this of course, but it would be par for the course. I'm going into a rant here, so I'll stop for now.

Also, kudos to the Collin County spotters and the other participating chasers for an outstanding SKYWARN net. I would have jumped in to call my report, but it was far from necessary with the outstanding "play-by-play" account in conjunction with the NWS. I would have just cluttered up the communications. At least that part of the warning process works quite well.

My video aired on The Weather Channel and FoxNews all day today. My video captures of the tornadoes can be seen here:
http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/may9/pictures/

The map of the damage path I surveyed last night (some slight errors possible due to exhaustion and 3am in the morning) as well as my route:
http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/may9/map.gif

The official NWS damage map just released:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/collingraytrak.htm

Official NWS Information Page (this is excellent!!!)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/collintor06.htm

Some news links:
dallasnews.com
Channel 5
CBS News 11

Forecast 5/9 - Dangerous Situation

1930Z UPDATE: I'm keeping my chase target area pretty much intact(Dallas/Gainesville/Ardmore/Bonham/Dallas... but Waco to Norman are going to be in the hotseat as well) despite the front/OFB apparent on satellite just south of the I40 corridor. Don't get me wrong as I certainly expect a real bruiser of a supercell to pop up there and munch along that OFB. However, as of this writing, profiler and SPC analysis shows pretty weak winds below 700mb and especially below 850mb. RUC forecast show that this area should also see a more unidirectional wind profile. While a tornado could occur up there, I don't like the weak boundary layer wind fields for anything more than a brief episode.

Further south, the winds south of the Red River are remaining backed to the S and even SSE at a few stations. The 850-900mb winds are also more backed (SSW) according to FWS VAD analysis with more speed....especially at the surface. The special 18z sounding from Fort Worth is astounding. You might say it's an "astounding sounding". LOL!! CAPE of 4200 and LI of -10 with LCLs around 5000 feet. However, the CIN was -156 which is still a substantial cap....but breakable with the hot surface temps in the upper 90's encroaching from the SW behind the dryline aimed right at DFW as well as convergence and additional heating ahead of the dryline. The lapse rates are dry adiabatic from 850 to 600mb and still pretty steep above that. My calculations from this sounding are that by about 5pm, CAPE should well exceed 5000 with LI of -12 to -13 with a very "fat" CAPE profile increasing with height above the LFC. This is a similar thermodynamic profile to the Jarrell event back in 1997.

What does all of this mean in English? All hell is about to break loose...big time. The torndo threat in my opinion is actually better from the Red River Valley southward to near Waco....with DFW in the middle. I would not rule out a violent tornado with this thermodynamic profile. However, with such a strong cap in place, we might only be dealing with two or three big tornadic supercells. I do not expect them to move much at all at first with a more southward drift in time. The CAPE profiles certainly appear to support super-sized hail (would you like to super-size that order? LOL) with baseballs and softballs common with the supercells that form. I won't be surprised to hear of grapefruit hail either. If, God forbid, one of these suckers gets going over DFW, it could be quite devestating. There's no way of telling where they'll form exactly as of now though.

The powder keg is packed. The fuse is about to be lit.

PREVIOUS ENTRY:
Certainly an extremely complex forecast today regarding surface features. However, one thing that is a guarantee are CAPE values exceeding 4000 and even 5000. The atmosphere is super-juiced with dewpoints in the lower 70's into the Red River Valley region. We literally have a big poweder keg waiting for the fuse to be lit. Right now, I'm going with the 12Z RUC forecast of the initial threat being across S OK and the Red River Valley region and then evolving down into the DFW area by 00Z. In fact, the 00Z scenario looks abit ominous for DFW with locally backed surface winds (SSE) sharply veering to westerly at 700mb of 30 knots. This is ideal for expected LCLs today. My target for today is Dallas to Gainesville to Ardmore to Bonham to Greenville back to Dallas. My house is in the middle of that. LOL!

For the rest of the details, the Storm Prediction Center is on top of it at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

5/5-7 Wrap Up & 5/8 Forecast

EDIT: Added picture links below:

May 5
May 6
Enchanted Rock Park

Despite Saturday's setup going to crap, I was able to intercept a good storm near Llano where I caught an weak elevated funnel. The storm itself had latched onto one of the many boundaries around and actually exhibited some rotation. The NWS at San Antonio were even mentioning that the storm could intensify and produce a tornado. I could see from my SW vantage point that the LCLs were on the ground and could make good mesocyclonic rotation. Unfortunately, road networks shut me down...including a dirt road completely inundated by rapidly runing water. I did head back west near Mason to London and caught a nice mini-supercell there with decent structure. Complete pics from 5/5 and 5/6 coming this evening if I'm not chasing....more on that shortly.

I stayed in Kerrville overnight and trekked up Hwy 16 all the way to I-20. this is one of the most scenic and interesting routes that take you through the heart of the hill country. This took me by Enchanted Rock State Park which I had read about, but had never visited. I went and checked it out. WOW!! That's really all there is to say. I strongly encourage anybody interested in a very cool and unique place to visit, especially if you have any interest in geology, to do so!!! It is the second largest geologic dome in the continental US and is unique by it's formation. The link above explains it more in detail, but it is absolutely a sight to behold in person. I hiked about 2 miles round trip before the drizzle got too heavy making things a bit treacherous. I've got lots of cool pics that I'll also post later tonight. I plan on going back gain soon when the weather is decent and I've got a free weekend. It's awesome!

To the forecast....

Today is yet another day where the models just can't handle the subtle details critical this time of year. The only place I can see within range to chase will be along the Red River Valley around the Lake Texoma vicinity. An OFB from morning and ongoin convection is now showing up well on satellite as well as surface analysis. Strong instability and decent vertical wind profiles argue for nice supercell up there...likely on this side of the Red River. That is of course IF one can develop up there. The jury is still out on that one. If it does, it could easily be a "surprise" event. We'll see.

Tomorrow is looking alot more potent for tornadic supercells from N TX into S OK. More on that tomorrow.

Report 5/5 - Forecast 5/6

This will be short...storms already firing. I'm in Brady, TX and chasing this area today down to Junction and SEward. Boundaries, good dynamics and impressive veerinng once againn should make for some fun. Yesterday, I got into the notch on three different tornadic supercells yesterday with nothing really to show for it. I videoed a *possible* brief tornado SW of Eastland. I went after the Coleman cell and missed the confirmed and visible large tornado further north in Jones/Shackelford counties that destroyed a house unfortunately. I literally flipped a coin as to which cell to go after. That's chasing. ;-) Stayed overnight in Brownwood and chatted with a guy named Ozzy from the UK out here on chasecation. We setup our cameras and caught some amazing anvil crawlers from the motel balcony. Check out the pics below. Right now....gotta git. (It might help if I put something here to click on. LOL!!)
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Forecast 5/5

Man, I haven't seen this much severe activity in Texas in a very long time....little alone in May. Today and tomorrow will continue the party. Since the models insist on putting a damper on things later next week, I'm going to party like it's the end of the season. :-)

Little time for details, but agree 100% with the SPC outlook...but the front as lifted to I-20 now just north of Abilene and Midland. An outflow boundary appears to intersect the front west of Abilene per the latest SPC MCD. This area looks primed for initiation of a wild round of storms today with better vertical wind profiles than the past couple of days. Nothing wrong with those storms either...some real bruisers. Today, the tornado threat increases in my opinion as the boundaries appear a little more defined and in excellent orientation with regards to expected storm vectors. It looks like a guaranteed tornadic supercell forming around Abilene to Big Spring to San Angelo with it munching SE along the OFB. It will also be interesting to see if any storms latch onto the synoptic front along the I-20 corridor.

I'll be headed out early today to the target zone (Abilene) with plans to stay overnight for round two tomorrow from the Edwards Plateau and SE/E of there. This I think could be the best day of this week. We'll see.

Forecast 5/4

2230Z UPDATE: I'm still here at work watching my preferred target area of Brady and 50 miles west explode. :-( A cell just popped up between Brady and Menard that looks like the "sweet" one to be on. Anyway, it looks like my secondary target of N TX north of I-20 isn't going to pan out. I discovered today that the wxcaster.com RUC was different from the UCAR RUC regarding instability. I'm not sure why though, but I was using it all day today and it did show the higher CAPE across N TX when in reality it was closer to the UCAR RUC and current SPC Mesoanalysis Page. Odd. Maybe I've been coding too much today. ;-) I'll certainly be aware of this from now on. In any event, the cu fields in N TX are flat and stable looking on satellite. The synoptic frontal convergence is practically zero now. I don't see anything popping up north of I-20 until late this evening and tonight....and then I'm pretty skeptical anything ever will. So, another armchair chase this evening from home with a cold brewski at my side. :-)

19Z UPDATE: Surface pattern is still complex. The synoptic front is actually from just south of OKC to near Wichita Falls and down to just south of Abilene and curving west to near Midland. This based on surface progs and VAD analysis. An outflow boundary apparently undergoing weak frontolysis stretches from near Abilene to west and south of Brownwood and back to north of Waco. I still like the Brady area and WNW of there about 50 miles. I would be there today if I could...and right now that doesn't look likely with work responsibilities since that would be too far for a worknight.

However, areas ahead of the synoptic front across North Texas, north of I-20, are recovering nicely now. CAPE is getting up to and even surpassing 2000 and the latest RUC continues to destabilize things approaching 3000 CAPE. With easterly boundary layer winds with westerly winds 700mb on up, this results in an excellent and favorable veering profile..although weak at all levels. The Jayton profiler is offline, but the White Sands and Tucemcari profilers show some increasing flow at 500mb with a pronounced backing signature near 500mb at White Sands. Furthermore, water vapor analysis shows a distinct area of ascent over the TX panhandle and SSE approaching N TX. So, it appears that some sort of disturbance, likely near White Sands, is heading this direction. Therefore, I'm forecasting a round of severe thunderstorms right here in North Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Large hail looks like the main threat as low level winds appear to be too weak in supporting tornadoes. But, the veering in the lowest 3km is impressive, so at least the structure should be impressive. However, any dominant, isolated supercell that moves deviantly (SE), then it could have a tornado potential. It is May. :-)

So, it looks like I'll hang out until things start firing here in the next 2-3 hours in my neck of the woods and then head towards the best looking area in N TX. If I had to guess, I'd say Mineral Wells to Denton.

EARLIER DISCUSSION:
What a crazy surface pattern as of noon. My target today would be Brady, TX. I see nothing to add to the SPC discussion other than I think the 15z RUC makes as much sense as anything else. Again, this is just on the outer fringe of my "worknight" chase range. So, unfortunately, I'll likely be armchair chasing again today. However, the actual synoptic front appears to still be from around Ardmore to near Sweetwater based on careful surface analysis focusing alot on dewpoints and temperatures. The overnight convection has really obscured it's location up until now. I'm curious to see if this whacked the RUC this morning and if this front will serve as a focus for storms closer to DFW later this afternoon. The RUC was trying to break out some precip to the SW of here prior to 21z. That makes things abit more interesting for possibly chasing within my range. North Central TX may not be out of the woods today. I'll likely update later this afternoon when things become even clearer.

Based on the chaotic scenario currently and alot of variables still to play out, I'm not going to attempt any sort of forecast for tomorrow or Saturday....although my gut instinct is I'll be staying home both days. I hope not. :-)

Forecast 5/3

I didn't make the trip to NW TX last night. It was abit out of range for me for a worknight combined with returning late from Monday night's incredible chase. I was feeling abit tired and yawned pretty much all the way home after work. With increasingly better setups through Friday and even possibly Saturday, it was best to rest up for what could be some pretty wild stuff around these parts Thursday and Friday.

Today is an interesting setup, but today's mid level winds appear to be weaker than yesterday. I've scoured the profilers and VAD data for signs of promise, but can't come up with anything. I saw the LBB VAD show 30 knots a couple of times at 18K feet (500mb), but all of the other winds above and below that level were weaker. Instabilities will be good, but areas across NW/W TX and SW/W OK still have dewpoints in the upper 50's. There should be some advection from the areas to the east and SE where dewpoints are in the mid 60's. I'm not sure how deep the moisture will be...but I am encouraged by the Abilene VAD showing a good low level jet out that way. With evapotranspiration and some moisture convergence, low to mid 60 dewpoints are likely in SW OK and NW TX.

The 15z RUC insists on dissolving the surface low north of Gage and backing all of the flow ahead of the front along and west of I-35...thus helping dewpoints to recover in SW OK and NW TX. The 500mb winds are progged to remain at or below 30 knots...mostly 20-25 knots. However, increasing SE to ESE SFC-850mb flow beneath WSW 700mb flow and W 500mb flow, although weak, will be highly favorable for rotating storms and a tornado or two before storms become HP mushbombs. This should make for some really nice storm structure which is what I would be aiming for today.

Target? It depends on the front's progress. I am picking the area between Paducah to Seymour again today. Once again, this is going to be just on the outer fringe of my worknight chase range. So, I'm not sure if I'll make it for that reason alone. Like I said, tomorrow and Friday are being advertised as potentially more significant severe weather days and closer to home. More on that in the morning, but North Texas might be in for a couple of days of significant severe weather episodes including a few tornadoes and gorilla hail. Stay tuned.

Forecast - 5/2

Man, after the incredible stormchase yesterday, I'm ready for more! :-)

The 1630z SPC outlook downplays the tornado threat to 5%. I'm not sure where the outflow boundary is exactly, but somewhere angled NW to SE from around Seymour down to Hillsboro based on satellite and careful surface analysis. That's my best guesstimate. Hopefully it will show up more on satellite in a few hours as all of the convective debris settles out.

Mid 60 Td is already evident on the SW side of the outflow boundary/cold pool sector over N TX and creeping up towards Paducah. The upper impulse from E AZ as of this morning is on track to hit the SE TX PH and NW TX late this afternoon as it is now in central NM showing decent ascent out ahead of it. Surprsingly, the NAM picked it up. I noticed on the 12Z sounding for ElPaso showed 40-45 knots around 500mb which wasn't forecast by the models. This might indicate a little better "oomph" to the impulse...and backed up by water vapor analysis.

With the instabilities today, it's a classic setup for a big monster supercell to munch slowly SE along the outflow boundary later today into tonight. As a matter of fact, it might intensify after dark as it encounters a more pronounced outflow boundary from Snyder and SEward. This storm motion and the fact it will munch along the OFB tells me that it will definitely be tornadic..and a strong likelihood of it being a long-lived cyclic beast at that as it would move right into the teeth of SSE to SE boundary layer winds.

So, my target would be Paducah initially. If I'm lucky...I'll be able to make it to Seymour.....more likely only to Graham. But, I'm curious to see if a storm pops up further E/SE of my initial target area more towards Seymour to Graham because of the influences of the impulse coming in.

We'll see how it all plays out. I hope to make it out that way in time for the show.

Flying Saucers Invade North Texas!! :-)

Caught the big isolated supercell west of DFW today in Stephens, Shackleford and Palo Pinto counties. This is some of the most amazing storm structure I've ever seen in person. I only had my Canon Rebel today. It was quite a pleasure to watch this transition from a near-dying high based LP near Graham to a big honking and hooking supercell that put on a spectacular show and had me mesmerized...only moving 10mph was nice too. :-) Stacked plates, mothership mesos, oh my.

Lots more pictures at the link below. Enjoy!!!

http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/may1/pictures/

(NONE of these pictures were altered in any way except for contrast, saturation and brightness.)

Chase Today!

I didn't pay attention to today setup as I planned for a "down day". Then I looked at the 15Z RUC. It just goes to show that you should never blow off a "May Day" until a look at morning data. :-) No time for details, but the RUC says it all for me....and at least a weak surface low to boot. LCLs are high, but so are a few other parameters that I like. Some pretty strong supercells should erupt today in S central OK and NE from there. It has another potential similar to April 24th in regards to a slow moving or quasi-stationary cell around the surface low. Although moisture is thin, I am seeing a rapid surge of lower 60Td racing up I-35. That along with moisture pooling aided by evapotranspiration from rain-soaked S OK and Red River TX counties should get us into the lower 60's at least. I'm highly skeptical of upper 60's to near 70 progged by the RUC....but it has been persistent since the 12z run and now bullseying 70Td with the 15z run. I'm still skeptical of that level though. Still, lots of fuel for some stout storms...even if they don't produce tornadoes. I'm there, dude. ;-) I'm picking Ada to Tishomingo to Atoka. I hope I can get there in time.

Happy "May Day" to stormchasers everywhere!! The "statistically" best 4 weeks are ahead of us. Of course, Ma Nature gets the final say-so in this....just like in 2005 and 2003. LOL!!

Weekend Update & Cooke County Survey

On Friday, I honed my target down to Abilene where I intercepted a SVR storm with decent rotation. However, all I got out of it was a few pics of a pretty impressive shelf cloud which I'll post pics of later this evening. I dropped down towards Ballinger after a more isolated cell, but it never got going....but did see some disorganized rotation and some hooking precip cores. I finally stopped long enough to determine that the warm front had popped north of I-20...amazingly. I saw a cell approaching Palo Pinto county along this warm front, and I decided to try and catch it. About the time I discovered 287 was closed south of Baird, I saw that cell starting to rotate.

After an agonizing detour, I got back onto I-20 near Eastland about the time the TOR went out for it. I intercepted it near Springtown and got right into the notch. I stayed with it until Eagle Mountain Lake. All along the way, I kept seeing an awesome barrel shaped updraft with striations and a blocky wall cloud under it. At one point, a couple of lightning flashes illuminated a cone-shaped structure of the base...but no tornado. I barely kept up with it through Denton county where I observed a couple of power flashes. A note here about the Denton County spotters....they were really great. It's still frustrating though to hear reports of light rain, lightning and 30mph winds when a potential tornado is bearing down on Denton....despite repeated pleas by net control to the contrary. Fortunately, this didn't cause a problem. The storm waned and I called a day back home.

I made a big mistake of NOT doing any data analysis for Saturday and caste my blind fate to the Day1 outlooks from the SPC. I made a long trip to Texarkana for nothing. Ugh.

Sunday, I did my own extensive damage survey of the Cooke County storm that hammered that area Friday. I know the NWS-FTW did one Saturday, but I wanted to do one for myself. It was the first serious and detailed survey I've ever done. I traversed the entire damage areas around Gainesville and Lindsay using my GPS to plot all of my observations. I'll detail it all graphically when I have the time, but in general, the pattern was a classic downburst fanning out in a 90 degree pattern. The northern sections were S to N while the southern sections were W to E. Overall, it's pretty obvious that winds reached 100mph in some spots.

The disturbing part of it were the several mobile homes that were either destroyed or severely damaged and even rolled over. People were in these homes at the time resulting in several injuries including broken limbs, some cracked ribs, and serious bruises/contusions. A couple of the victims were gracious enough to tell me their harrowing stories. One gentleman whose home was destroyed just NE of the airport was busy running a tractor cleaning things up...all the while nursing cracked ribs and serious facial contusions. You have to admire and respect that kind of tenacity. He told me that he was watching everything out the back window when he looked down and saw the floor peeling away where the support anchors were attached. He said that the ride was on then. The next thing he knew, he was outside in the field face down. He and his wife are okaythough...as are the other victims of this storm. Thank goodness.

I also met up with Chris McLauglin who helps run the Cooke County EOC. We had a nice discussion about all that went on that day. He got caught in the storm in his car and which was shoved sideways several feet. Yikes. The EOC center actually went down in the storm killing their communications. He took over control from his car while running GR3 on his laptop. :-) He showed me around their barn that had been destoyed. Part of it was anchored with a large telephone pole buried pretty deep into the ground. It was pulled up along with the barn. Everything was tossed about 30-50 feet.

Overall, the damage from this storm was incredible for just downburst winds. Alot of it resembled tornado damage in a way. One thing is for sure which is clearly evident in my pictures....do not ride out storms in a mobile home. It's a very very very very bad idea. Some brick & morter homes right next to the ones destroyed sustained only minor roof damage and a few broken windows.

The pics: http://www.texastailchaser.com/stormsurveys/20060428/pictures/