Forecast - 4/28

18Z UPDATE: I'm changing my target areas based on the nice current trends. I'll be heading down I-20 towards Abilene and the area just north of there by about 50 miles. I like the better more "virgin" dewpoints coming into that area as well as the warm front/dryline intersection. Childress/Paducah is still a nice area, but I think a little further south is a more prudent choice given the increasing convection/rain over North Texas likely interferring with good airmass recovery in my original target area. See ya'll out there.

Definitely not a real clear-cut setup today with alot of variables or as I like to say a swarm of horseflies ready to take a dive into the ointment. ;-)

I'll keep it pretty simple as there will be severe storms from around Childress down into the Sierra Madres of Mexico. I have two target areas. The first one would be right on or immediately east of the surface low around Childress. This has two potential problems: 1) proximity to southward moving cold front with SSW/SW flow in the mid levels tending to move storms north of it quickly....but if the front stalls could actually spin up a tornado as cells cross it 2) a nearly unidirectional vertical wind profile from 850mb on up that is also nearly parallel to the dryline which will result in storms getting seeded from cells to the S or SSW.

The second target area is from San Angelo to Junction to Del Rio...in the SPC risk bullseye. Better vertical wind profiles will exist here with more veering. However, there's alot of thick cloud cover down there right now....but might thin just enough to get a little heating. So far, the precip isn't extensive or heavy staying just north of I-10. But, the models are trying to rapidly increase the precip all over the place down here. My gut feeling is that they are right.

So, despite the heightened SPC risk areas in my number two target area, I'm playing the Childress area on the surface low. The current surface winds are strongly backed all over northern Texas and into that area which is a good sign. If we can keep them backed this much out of the SE or even ESE along the Red River (which is possible with the surface low organizing there...despite model forecasts).

Overall, I'm not real excited about today about both target areas. I think it will be a large scale heavy rain event punctuated by a big, honkin squall line bulldozing across the state by evening. South Texas (Del Rio to Austin/San Antonio and southward) should stand the better chance of a few discrete cells out ahead of the line and away from the heavy precip areas.

If the upper low hangs up over central KS tomorrow, my money would be on that being the better chaseday. The 12Z NAM though doesn't offer much hope of that. We'll see. I'll worry about that in the morning. :-)

Headed out from work this afternoon when I am able to do so. For those of ya'll already out there, tell the storms to wait. ;-)

Forecast Thoughts - 4/28-29

Tomorrow (Friday) appears to me as one of those "headache" events trying to forecast more than about 6-12 hours in advance of peak heating. It's been my experience over the years that these big, strong upper lows/troughs create way too much ascent and linear forcing with practically no cap. Even if we get several hours of insolation ahead of the dryline, everything should erupt quickly into a pretty powerful, linear squall line. It appears the source inflow region will be worked over pretty good and relatively stable. The CAPE values will likely be pretty low as a result. This will serve to reduce the chance of any isolated cells developing ahead of the line. Cells will also be hauling butt too with at least a 70knot mid level jet. (I contend that fast moving storms have a much harder time rooting in the BL too....just a pet theory of mine). Basically, it looks like crap for chasing, but I'll be out there...LOL!!. South TX might see a better chase opportunity and more isolated supercells for anybody down in that area. (We need to annex the "Grandes Llanuras de Norteamerica" region west of the Rio Grande just for us Texas stormchasers so we can catch those springtime monster supercells coming off the Sierra Madres. It would be very similar to E CO. I might organize a week-long armed-escorted trip there someday and invite Roger Edwards along :-) Celldata? We don need no steenkin' cell data. LOL! )

HOWEVER....this does not mean that a few tornadoes won't spinup with initial convective development or with embedded supercells in the squall line. The models are consistent with developing SREH of 400 all over the central third of TX with a bullseye of 500 west of DFW by 00Z. 0-6km shear will be impressive (maybe too much for a potentially weak CAPE environment?) and LCLs should be hugging the ground. So, I'm not "poo-pooing" the potential of this event at all.

Overall, I'm not betting on anything until things actually start coming together late tomorrow morning. The upper low is just now coming into the RAOB network, so it will be interesting to see the 00Z models this evening.

On the positive side, extensive heavy rains are forecast for OK and TX which we desperately need to make a dent in the widespread extreme drought conditions. Things will really green up all over the southern plains and help boost our dewpoint values in May through evapotranspiration and help ease the thermonuclear EML source region that's been plaguing us for years. So, I'm not complaining one bit.

For Saturday, a good cold core setup looks likely in the NE quad of OK and SE KS. It's all entirely dependent on the track of the upper low of course....which models usually don't handle very well. Right now, I hope it slows down a tad so that things setup in more chase-friendly terrain. :-)

Tornado Charlie

Update #3: Martin Lisus got excellent video of this tornado as well as additional analysis. Check it out. Bill Tabor got some great close-up shots. All three of us were within spitting distance of each other.

UPDATE #2: I edited about 10 minutes of video into about 75 seconds. It's not tripoded because I had forgot to put the tripod shoe on the camera. Not bad though for hand-held. (for Windows Media Player). Click here for video clip.

UPDATED #1: Added a few video grabs below:











I intercepted a beautiful, graceful tornado west of Charlie, TX today. The storm report I think said it was 5 SE of Randlett, OK. Same thing. It appeared to have touched down on or within spitting distance of the Red River. This one goes into the "tie" column for OK/TX. LOL!!

I caught the entire lifecycle from wall cloud to it getting swallowed by an intense precip core before dissipating. I estimate it was around 8 minutes in duration...maybe 10. I got video of the developing wall cloud under the LP/Classic updraft structure to an ominous wall cloud lowering to the ground and then as I cleared some trees the developing funnel that slowly condensated to the ground...very gracefully and methodical. It started off as a qhispy tornado and grew into a stovepipe/elephant trunk. The precip core started dumping all around it and the tornado became rain wrapped...but looked very cool as the precip core was sharply defined with strong contrast and the tornado barely visible from within. It eventually disappeared into the precip or else it quickly dissipated. If it moved at all, it was only about 5mph to the ESE.

This was an awesome storm structure wise too. An incredible LP/Classic supercell that slowly crawled E and ESE and often stationary. I definitely need a nice fish eye wide angle lens. I was too close to really capture the awesome structure.

This was a tough navigation too around the Red River as I didn't want to punch into golf ball to tennis ball hail. So I had to make about a 20 mile detour to the east, drop south of the river, and then about 10 miles west again. I had only seconds to spare before the funnel started forming. Hey, I needed a little luck after this season's efforts so far. LOL!!! This all after a grueling hour drive through the DFW metromess traffic snarls for a trip that should take only 15 minutes. Everything was working against me logistically. Luck was definitely on my side today.

That was fun. Let's do it again. Pics/clips tomorrow evening. Sleep first. Workday tomorrow.

EDIT: Thanks to Dave Fick for pointing out that this was a "Tail-end-charlie Charlie Tornado". LOL!

Forecast - Monday 4/24

After totally flubbing my forecast yesterday, thanks to over-reliance on the
models, today I've got alot more confidence in how things will transpire.

First off, expect a shift of the Day1 outlook further SW. The 3hr RUC
initialized at 14z combined with the 12Z NAM is showing a surface low winding
up between Childress and Altus. Current surface analysis is right on target
with the lowest surface pressure at Childress supported by surface wind
trajectories. So, I certainly expect to see the moderate expanded into SW OK
and perhaps across the Red River (I know...a moderate south of the Red River
sounds like science fiction). Overall, my thoughts are for the preferred
surface parameters and thermodynamics to be across SW/S OK and into NW TX where
near 70Td is encroaching into the DFW area. In fact, current surface obs and
the model forecasts show some backed surface flow across N TX as well with a
sharp dryline with SW flow punching in from the SW. So, I think the western
parts of N TX should be on guard later today and this evening whenever the cap
might bust. When is the big question right now and might be more after sunset.
I'm not sure right now.

However, the mid and upper flow is abit on the weak side this far
south...according to the models. So, HP storms would be the likely mode...but
with a tornadic potential given the strong instabilities and SREH busting 300.
With strong instabilities and rich moisture axis, I believe there is strong
potential for good deviant storm motion to the SE. If any storm does this, the
tornadic potential will be very high in my opinion as storm-relative winds at
all levels become quite favorable.

Pretty much most of OK will be under the gun today from Woodward south to the
Red River...the western half of OK. The northen part will still have favorable
dynamics including more favorable mid and upper level winds. Tornadic
supercells are certainly a good bet there...but I can't make it there today. :-
) I still slightly prefer areas south of I-40 and west of I-35 regardless.

So, my target? Frederick-Hobart, OK. I can just make that after leaving work today.
More updates later if possible.

Forecast - 4/23-24

Today looks like a real disappointment shaping up. There are two big ol' horseflies in the ointment for today. 1) weak mid level flow of 20-30 knots at best and 2) High LCLs resulting in strong cold pooling and outflow dominant storms. I also don't like the slight anticyclonic curvature of the mid level jet which will result in vertical motions being suppressed.

At least there will be 50-65 knots 300mb winds today to aid with developing some strong storms and ventilating the anvil to some extent. With that in mind, the only hope for a "good" supercell with even the slightest hope for a spinup would be for an isolated storm to remain nearly stationary and drift slowly south creating better storm-relative winds in the mid levels. It's a long shot.

If I could teletransport today, I would actually head to E/SE NM where I think the better combination of moisture, dynamics, upslope and vertical wind profiles will result in the better storms. I would not rule out the Davis Mountains either around Pecos to Monahans.

Tomorrow, things get alot better. A pronounced triple point forms somewhere in W/SW OK, CAPE of 2500+, 40-45 knot mid level winds, good veering profiles. Everything really looks quite good for some serious storms on Monday in OK and eventually into N TX (but well after dark). I believe the only variable to play out is the extent of overnight convection and the southward push of the cold front thus dictating where the triple point ends up. I'd definitely save my precious gas money for tomorrow. :-)

On a side note, my VX2100 came back from warranty repair and it's in great shape. In fact, the tape drive housing was replaced and actually "fits" better than when I first got it. They repaired it very quickly in about 3 working days after receiving it then sending it back 3-day ground. I get it back in less than 2 weeks from the day I shipped it out...and includes Good Friday. Oddly enough, their warranty repair center is in Laredo, Texas. It's good to see NAFTA at work. ;-)

I also resubbed to XM radio and installed the new radio in the vehicle yesterday. I also have a home kit too. I'm a huge music afficionado and it really is a great source for all sorts of different music including new and upcoming groups that you would never ever hear on commercial radio. One group that I discovered last year on XM and now one of my favorites is "Porcupine Tree" and "Liquid Tension Experiment". Check them out. Overall, it is a very nice addition to my extensive MP3 collection on my computers (I don't play CDs anymore). The 3 comedy channels on there are great too. :-) It makes those long chase trips much more comfortable and endurable.

Pics from 4/15 & some ramblings

Just got my stills uploaded. Video to come later.

http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/april15/pictures/

I did want to correct that Bob Hall, Justin Teague and Matt Patterson shot video of the same tornado near Beatrice as they were teamed up for this event. Nice work.

Also, the 12Z NAM for this event screwed up the mid and upper jet forecast for the event. It had them too far south....especially with the 250mb jet across central OK and pronounced left exit region over S/SE KS by 00Z. Wrong again. The 12z RUC was further north and right on target. As a result, the storms didn't fire south of the mid level jet streak until after dark when the streak had moved over SE KS.

Lastly, a special nod to Randy Hicks. He's the chaser whose video was shown on CNN and CNN.com that is pretty exhilerating. Although the tornado appears to take a swipe at them, it looked like powerful RFD to me as the tornado was already past them. I don't believe they intended to drive into it....in my opinion. So what if they did? It's a free country. Others think they were IN the tornado and that they purposefully drove into it. Randy and company are apparently guilty of showing extreme excitement and elation. A few in the chase community are calling for a "Spanish Inquisition" headed by Chuck Doswell himself.

Break out the pointy cushions and harsh rhetoric! That'll teach them a lesson! LOL!!

What's even more curious to me are "veteran" or "well-known" chasers who have had much more dangerous and close encounters of a similar nature, even very recently, and yet they are "praised" or "commended" for such cool, thrilling video with lots of "ooos and ahs". Stormcult indeed.

4/15 Chase Report - NE KS

Congrats to all of my compadres for bagging some great naders today! Props to Bob Hall for a nice tornado I believe near the KS border...not the Beatrice tornado. Check out his video which I saw a couple of times on TWC. Also, Justin Teague and Matt Patterson (and anybody I left out...it's early...no coffee yet) bagged the Beatrice tornado with their video being shown on TWC this morning along with a couple of other folks. Shane Adams and Micky Ptak also bagged this tornado. I can't wait to see their video. Congrats to all!

For me, I couldn't make it that far today from North Texas. But, I had a pretty good chase overall. I stayed just south of Junction City waitinng for a persistent updraft generation point along the dryline to finally pop. I didn't like the looks of the linear looking storms closer to the KS border eruptinng "shoulder-to-shoulder". It looked like the precip areas were dumping right into the inflow regions. This not only fights against tornado generation, but makes it very difficult to observe a tornado if it forms....especially with initial storm motions indicated at 60mph. From the video I've seen this morning, I was wrong :-) However, I hoped for a more southern tail-end charlie down around the I-70 corridor. I would soon be rewarded.

My little cell that kept trying to pop finally did and quickly expoded into a severe-warned storm right over my head as I moved east of it in I-70. It was moving at a pretty good clip...more like 40mph instead of the reported 50-60mph. Near Wabaunsee, it quickly developed a nice wall cloud with some rotation in it. The inflow was screaming into this thing picking up tons of dirt and along with the various range fires in the area made it quite challenging to view. It never did get quite wrapped up though and I continued following it to west of Holton where it got it's first TOR.

At this point, I thought a tornado was occuring as a HUGE dust cloud was being ingested into the entire meso and what appeared to be a cylindrical appearence. It didn't last long enough for me to stop and photo it. I did get a shot of the updraft structure and remaining dust cloud getting ingested into the meso. I kept playing leap frog with it to north of Holton where I gave up on it. It was a tough decision, but another couple of strong cells were developing further south along the line and quickly overtaking this one. The precip in the entire viewing region was getting heavy. I'm not sure, but this might have been the cell that Bob Hall caught the nice tornado on. I'll have to talk with him in more detail to see.

I tried in vain to get south of Topeka but got stopped by a hail core near Holt. I let it pass while waiting under a bank awning. This wasn't a bad thing because I got to look up at the back of the updraft structures and bases thus visually plotting my next strategy of heading east on I-70 while after visually determining which cell might be the preferred tail-ender. I don't have the nickname "tailchaser" for nothing. ;-)

Soon, my opportunity would present itself as the true tail-end cell erupted south of Topeka and sprinted NE. I was hot on it's heels while I watched radar to avoid the hail core until it passed I-70. It did and what a treat it was. I saw all sorts of wall clouds forming and the entire meso area churning. I-70 started making a nice ENE jog towards Kansas City which kept me in perfect position all the way. However, the traffic was pretty bad with many people pulled over under bridges and on the side of the road abruptly pulling back out on the interstate. Some construction didn't help. And Chuck Doswell rants about irresponsible chasers. ROFL! Anyway, this caused me to fall behind abit.

I stayed up with it though and captured a couple of ominous wall clouds until this cell was TOR warned. The TVS was just to my north near Tonganoxie (I love that name almost as much as Bug Tussle, OK) by about 5 miles. Nice! I watched several attempts for it to wrap up and as it got dark and out just ahead of me again (traffic and panicked locals slowing me down). I'm not sure, but I think my video might have caught a brief tornado illuminated by lightning. Some brief funnel clouds were definitely observed.

After getting though all of the big hills on I-70 on the NW parts of KC, I made it around and headed north of I-635 to the north side of KC and got a good viewing point of the bears cage. Lo and behold, a large, pronounced funnel cloud was hovering over the towns of Barry/Acme. Fortunately, it never touched down. I haven't watched the video yet to see how the quality is on it though.

By this time, I was tired and the storm was definitely gettinng away from me into Missouri. It was time to head back towards Wichita. On the way, another strong line of storms was moving across E/SE KS and I stopped to get some great lightning photos. My eyelids were dropping heavily though and the safety factor dictated I stop in Emporia for the night after 14 ours on the road. Headed home today after a shower. Pics/clips later when I have time to load them.

(disclaimer: no spell check)

Off to see the wizard....

It's mid April, negative tilt trough, bulging dryline, a Saturday, and it's Kansas. Why not? ;-) The moisture inadequencies will certainly make it nearly impossible for tornadoes of course with higher LCLs and cold pool generation. However, a couple of isolated, strong supercells are likely possibly as far south as Northern Oklahoma...southern Kansas definitely. Everybody and their cat will be trekking to Nebraska today for a possible cold core setup, but this is more of an open wave instead of a closed core. There are indications that the mid and upper winds will be relatively weak across NE except the extreme E/SE parts. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. It's too far for me anyway.

For KS, I'm liking the forecast mid level jet cutting across the KS/OK border and a pronounced left exit region of upper jets (300-200mb) moving across the southern half of KS and far northern OK. I don't see anything to create subsidence, so it's my opinion that the dryline will spark a few isolated cells from N KS down to far northern OK. Profiles will support rotating storms without a doubt. A decent surge of lower 60Td is moving up the I-35 corridor and if we can avoid the mixing ahead of the dryline, should see the 60Td isodrosotherm into S/SE KS. A more pessimistic forecast would have the 60Td mark just north of I-40. Moisture convergence and even a small contribution from evapotranspiration might aid the cause today. It will be something I'll monitor hourly today as I head up I-35.

Overall, I'd love to play the dryline bulge across the northern half of Kansas if I can reach it today from N TX. But, moisture might be pitiful up there too (another concern about NE). So, my "loose" target will be Wichita, KS with refinement as real time data analysis dictates. Maybe I'll team up with some of my Tulsa homies and discuss the next phase of muscling in on the plains. ;-)

In the crystal ball for later April, the upper air patterns start making a significant shift next week. There are distant visions of a split flow setting up with a subtropical jet regime across the southern plains with a large, persistent trough along the left coast. My cat agrees. ;-)

Good luck to all venturing out today!

Tax Time Tornadoes?

The NAM (Never Accurate Model) has been supporting a general model trend of a slightly slower and stronger system for Saturday. The 00Z run is even more promising for some fun with tornadic supercells. The dynamics are certainly impressive...negative tilt trough, strong PVA, left-exit upper jets, strong punching dryline, excellent shear and veering profiles, decent instabilities, good moisture depth, and it's in Kansas ;-) But, in the year of "Houdini" setups, I'm not taking the bait just yet. I've got enough hook wounds, thank you. ;-)

Seriously, I've got a little more faith in the NAM because of such good prior model consensus of the GooFuS and ECMWF as well as a steady trend of all three models towards the latest 00z NAM solution. It's enough for me to schedule an earlier flight for Friday back to DFW in order to make a beeline to the Land of OZ on Saturday. I just hope there isn't a funny "NAM" behind the curtain. LOL!!

Drought Crisis

Greetings from the beautiful Mile High City! The weather here in Denver is nothing short of spectacular this week. Clear blue skies with the stunning snow-topped mountains to the west is a nice change of pace. I'm hoping for a quick trip up to the mountains for some photo ops. With 70's for highs, I'm enjoying it a helluva lot more than the -13F chaser convection in February. I'll be back in plenty of time for Saturday's possible chase. After looking at the models, I'm actually seriously concerned about the drought.

Climatologically, Texas is starting to run out of time to get any beneficial widespread rains. As I had ranted about back in January, we seriously needed at least a "normal spring" to prevent an even more critical drought situation for 2006 than we saw for 2005. Unfortunately, the drought has continued throughout March and now here it is approaching mid April with no relief on the horizon. Sure, there were some small regions of heavy rainfall the weekend of March 18/19, particularly across N Texas, but that is only a drop in the bucket comparatively.

I had alot of hope as of yesterday that a strong upper air system advertised by the medium range forecast models would give us a good shot of rain next weekend. This morning, hopes were dashed by considerable agreement among all of the models to once again send the energy well to the north of Texas....leaving most of the state high and dry. This pattern trend has really been ongoing since 1996 (with a couple of exceptions like 2004), but it hasn't firmly locked into place until early 2005.

As you can see by the official drought analysis, we are still in serious shape. In fact, the drought has expanded to include four states from Arizona to now most of Oklahoma. The bottom line is that we need a serious change in the upper air pattern to move big, slow storm systems across these areas instead of deflecting into the central plains. I have watched in disbelief for all of March and the first part of April now all of the strong upper air storm systems track right through Kansas. Normally, this storm track would come through Texas in March. It's as if the entire atmosphere has been shifted north 500-1000 miles. Not only that, but the critical low level moisture has been severely lacking as well with dewpoints barely struggling above 60 and then usually pretty shallow. Everything is working against us while the "Left Coast" in the west is flooding. For stormchasers, it means you have to go to Kansas and Nebraska. Chasers that live up there don't have a true appreciation of the ability to chase in the own backyard. Yes, I'm jealous and bitter about it. LOL!!

Another result of such an expansive drought will be to further strengthen the capping inversions across OK and TX. I think we have been seeing the results of that. Since the EML source (region for the capping inversion 3-10k feet) is in the middle of the severe to extreme drought areas, it certainly seems logical to me that this airmass will be warmer and drier than normal and advected across TX and OK. Interestingly, the TX PH region is in a severe drought too and it will be interesting to see if this affects southern Kansas.

For residents of Texas, it means that Stage 5 and 6 drought contingency plans stand a good chance of being implemented this year. I'm truly disappointed that the news media isn't seriously focusing on this yet. Perhaps it's the failure of the state to push them on it. Maybe they need to "sensationalize" it for the media to pay any attention. I dunno. The bottom line is that most residents will be slapped in the face by a harsh reality this summer. Here is a sample of what's to come later this year if the drought continues into August/September (I'm praying for a tropical system):

1) Water bills will skyrocket.

2) NO car washing either residential or commercial. Yep, your local "Kar Wash" will be forced to shut down.

3) NO lawn watering or at least severely and aggressively curtailed to once every two weeks. Commercial watering will be banned totally.

4) Monthly allotted household water use. Using a formula based on household occupants, you will only be allowed to use a specific number of gallons per month. 5) NO swimming pools. You'll have to drain it.

6) Lakes will be closed to boating and perhaps all recreational use. The levels will be too low creating a serious boating hazard to EVERYBODY including old timers familiar with it. It in effect becomes a new lake and not one map anywhere will be accurate. Besides, the boat ramps will probably be high and dry anyway. The water also becomes dangerously stagnant and a biohazard. Things like brain-eating protozoa will thrive. (I'm not making that up either...look it up.)

That's just a few of the unpleasant things on the horizon for all of us. Lake Benbrook for example had an entire marina out of the water and no usable boat ramps (per a local TV news station story prior to the 3/19 heavy rain event) . That's the first time ever that Marina has run dry in it's over 30 years of existence. Here is a report for that lake showing it plunged to half of it's capacity by the end of February. Notice how quickly it can deviate too.

Overall state reservoir capacity is pretty low for the early 2006 season and a sharp drop from 2005 comparing a 12 month interval. This graphic makes that very clear...and the we are running well below the "median average". But that doesn't tell the whole story. All of the High Plains reservoirs are down to 20-30% of normal capacity. Lakes are drying up out there..literally!! I have no idea what those poor folks are going to do. The Low Rolling Plains and Southern Texas are at 60% capacity. Even here in North Texas, we are only at 80% capacity (thanks only to the 3/18-19 rain event) and normally, we should be at 100% for mid April with water being released. The only places in good shape are in the east.

Right now, the DFW region is rapidly expanding it's population base and naturally it's water consumption. We have not expanded our water supply however. Even though there are a couple of reservoirs not even being tapped yet, there's no infrastructure in place to get that water. That is only for future water planning..not for emergency use. As we saw last year, municipalities are stretched as it is. A couple of cities, like Allen for example, have already asked residents to begin implementing volunteer rationing. They warned residents that by not decreasing overall water consumption by 10% before June, they would enact stronger mandatory rationing. Many other cities are preparing similar plans. I see alot of lawn sprinklers going right now since we haven't had any rain for weeks now. My lawn is looking pitiful, but not in danger yet. So, I'm holding off for another week...trying to do my part and give mother nature a chance to do it.

Okay, that's a helluva rant. It'd be nice if more than a handful of people would actually read my blog. LOL!!! 2006 indeed is going to be an interesting one. We are already surpassing the "Dust Bowl" era in terms of rainfall records. So, I'm not hyping up the seriousness of this. Long range models and CPC predictions aren't looking good. Pray for rain...and lots of it.

4/6...another early season false alarm

Pics from my 4/6 chase can be found here. I played around Madill to Atoka where the struggling "showers" along the dryline finally erupted into some formidable cells in western Atoka county. At one point near Stringtown, north of Atoka, the storm threatened to spin up a tornado. A strong convergence point formed under an updraft with lots of motions and then some weak rotation and a hook. I'm not entirely sure, but as I was trying to get east if Stringtown on 43 through the "mountains", I swear I thought I saw a funnel cloud trying to form...could have been a look-alike. With fast storm motions, I didn't want to stop until I felt like I got far enough east with a good viewing point to film a tornado in case it produced one. When I did, the "magic" was gone. LOL! I would watch a couple of other strong convergence zones and some ominous swirling with this storm north of Daisy and Goss east of the Turnpike until I decided to finally give up and hit the turnpike towards home. I caught up to a new storm forming in Lamar county, TX and caught a few lighting shots. Note to self: Atoka is as far east as I'll ever chase again. :-)

Yet another "particularly dangerous situation" didn't unfold as expected by myself and many other people including the SPC. There were a few tornadic storms, but far fewer than had been anticipated. The early season for severe weather in the plains can be extremely fickle and difficult to forecast as demonstrated for the past several weeks. Too may things can happen to disrupt the delicate balance of moisture, instability and shear. The atmosphere doesn't have as long to recover from things that disrupt this balance...such as early morning convection or extensive cloudiness in addition to moisture return usually conisting of modified gulf air at best.

Yesterday looked like a significant outbreak in NE OK, E/SE KS, NW AR and MO. The powerful upper level dynamics were there to be certain. However, the instability was not. I think the whole event was squelched by extensive early to mid morning convection from NE TX into NE OK and W AR. These storms were intense and a few SVR was issued for them. The colder outflow from the strong elevated storms with the lingering cloud cover kept this entire region cooled and partially stabilized. All of the storms that fired later in the afternoon in E KS down into S OK were moving into less unstable airmass. There wasn't enough time for the atmosphere to recover nor was there a good, uncontaminated source region for the lower level winds to advect into the target area (theta-e advection).

In fact, watching the Weather Channel radar loop last night after getting home, all of the storms practically dissipated as they moved into Missouri...like a giant hand parting the Red Sea. So maybe there was some divine intervention for the ravaged residents of that state. A couple of storms did pop some TORs for NE OK and along the KS/OK border, but they didn't produce anything notable and soon fizzled out. I think here, the jet dynamics were the strongest and just barely overcome the instability deficits. Further north along the KS/NE border area, there were some more significant tornadoes very near the surface low/front under a cold core regime. Even here it looks like only one or two cells at most were spinnning them up. That's it.

So, to simplify, it simply appears to have been another case of strong, powerful dynamics and weak instability relative to the amount of shear. I almost forgot to add the dismal veering profiles south of the I-40/44 corridor. 850mb winds were SSW at best and mainly SW creating a nearly unidirectional profile.

Another note is from my rant yesterday about the dryline forecast. That sucker just barely eased by I-35 in TX around 00Z and even retreated after dark. In fact, it was still along the I-35 corridor south of I-40 well after 21Z. This has been a very common scenario with a strong, developing surface low in Nebraska for as long as I can remember. The old ETA had this problem too. Could it be that the dryline is mixing into a "deeper" boundary layer airmass related to surface elevation? It seems like simple physics to me as far as the volume of air to be mixed or "shoved". It always seems like the I-35 corridor seems to act like dampener on a dryline's eastward progression. I dunno.....practicing physics and meteorolgy without a license here. ;-) It's definitely a problem for the models though to be certain. Some young, aspiring met student out there should consider this for a master's thesis. If a comprehensive study has already been done on this subject, please let me know so that I don't sound like a doofus. :-)

RED ALERT! DEFCON 1!! :-)

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

16z Update: Latest analysis and RUC forecasts are starting to shift the tornado threat north of I-40 and I-44 into NE OK and SE KS and SW MO. The reason for that is veered 850mb flow forecast and in fact strongly veered from 21z onward. This certainly won't support strong or long lived tornadoes since the vertical wind profiles will be almost unidirectional with only a small veering profile in the lower 5000 feet. Current profiler and VAD analysis certainly support this trend as well. But, let there be no doubt that these storms south of I-40/44 will be vicious with gorilla hail and violent downburst winds. If any storm gets firmly rooted on the dryline or become right turners, they will still have a tornado potential, albeit not as significant as earlier thought. HOWEVER, if some sort of W/E boundary sets up from earlier convection across OK, then that would help the tornado threat for any cell interacting with that. I'll be looking for that. (I'm about to give up on the security company coming out first late yesterday and then as promised this morning. I've had to take a day off from work to wait on them. Oh well, I'll call somebody else that will come out this Saturday and get it taken care of. At least I can leave the house here and intercept a storm later on. Sorry for the rant.)

I'm not at all surprised that the latest 12z RUC slows the dryline significantly today and the 12z ETA just rolling in concurs....even a tad slower. Like I stated yesterday, the others' alarm bells will soon be going off for this region of S OK and N TX. When will the general forecasting community stop taking the NAM at full face value with these systems? I'm no stellar super-star forecaster, but after you see the same identical bias repeted continually without exception, even my cat could predict a more westward verfication.

Besides, the ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET have been rock solid and consistent with this and the past few systems, but it is hard to find any forecast discussions out there that take them seriously...except the NCEP gurus. I've heard Chuck Doswell rant about such "model regurgitation" being rampant and I certainly concur. People's lives are at stake in situations such as this one taking shape today. Sure, call me elitist and an a-hole and point out the fact that I don't a met degree...blah blah blah...but that doesn't change the facts nor the truth. Please stop hugging the NAM. It has sucked horribly this year. I now call it the Never Accurate Model.

OK....my rant is over with...I feel better. :-) The dryline will just be approaching I-35 by 21z and in eastern OK near Tulsa down to just east of Greenville by 00Z. All jets from the lower levels to 200mb are juxtaposed right over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley through 00Z today nosing into E KS, MO and AR. CAPE values over 2500 will provide the necessary fuel for violent supercells today. All shear parameters and hodograph profiles certainly look supportive of violent tornadoes in a few of the storms. I certainly think that some longer track tornadoes are a possibility.

One additional parameter that we'll have today that I don't recall with the last few systems is a rapid intrusion of 0C 700mb temps racing across OK and The RR Valley today. Based on a couple of presentations I've seen by Al Mollar regarding this particular situation, it seems to be another argument for a significant tornado event. Not only does this result in intense lower level lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE, but also serves really enhance a dryline punch or bulge with stronger surface winds due to enhanced mixing...I think. ;-)

The SPC has gotten burned a couple of times this year with PDS watches with nothing verifying. I am however totally convinced that today will be different....unfortunately for residents. Indeed, this is a VERY dangerous situation unfolding.

My target? Just across the Red River starting around Ardmore/Madill and reacting/adjusting from there as necessary.

4/6 Outlook or "Roll The Bones"

Without regurgitating all of the discussions for Nebraska into E KS and Missouri tomorrow, I'll chat about S OK and N TX since I'm anchored here and have a job. :-) However, that doesn't mean things won't explode around these parts either.

The models of course are spasmodic to say the least. The NAM is off it's rocker as usual with everything too fast and too far east. The 12z GooFuS is back to it's neurotic solution similar to it's whacky solution at 12z yesterday (the 00Z solution was starting to show some semblence of sanity). I think some tarot cards and a good Ouiji board would perform just as well. LOL!!

Fortunately, the expert gurus at NCEP identified those two as the problem children in trying to forecast this event...even while many discussions take the NAM at full face value. That's surprising to me given it's continual horrendous performance this season. The NCEP is siding with the slower ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET solutions of which have been the most solid and consistent models the past two days (and usually are). That is VERY important for residents of N TX and S OK if their combined solution is indeed verified. Without wishcasting, I'm siding with these models' solution. it makes no sense NOT to at this point. In fact, I'm fully expecting the two problem children to swing back towards these solutions...and then watch the alarm bells start being sounded for this region. :-)

The big cavet of course is the dewpoint depressions expected of ~20F as is typical now with North Texas climatology. Cold pool generation will be a problem along with higher LCLs. The thing to watch for will be the storm relative winds. If a storm roots on the dryline and/or becomes a right turner (thus slower movement), then the storm relative winds will be outstanding and I think a significantly increased tornado threat with those sustained cells. I do know that I've no desire to chase storms racing off at 50mph. So, my plan would be to hang around the dryline in hopeful anticipation of something finally getting firmly rooted. If it doesn't, I'll save gas and my sanity. :-) I do however have NO plans to stay at home and sit it out. The realistic season for me only lasts another 10-12 weeks. I chase. There will be plenty of time to sit at home afterwards.

4/2 Recap & Eyeing Thursday

4/1 pics, if you haven't seen them yet, can be found here.

4/2 pics are here.

I moseyed down to Waco yesterday lured by a stationary boundary and CAPE of 4000 with good shear. I liked the bullseyed parameters in that area along with a distinct kink in the boundary along with decent convergence. Cells started popping around Hillsboro, but I kept getting lured a little further SW by data analysis. Despite weakening convergence progged by the RUC, I figured that once a storm got going, it would sustain itself in the very unstable environment. Making things more difficult today would be somebody tripping over the power cord at the Fort Worth radar site. Just kidding, but it and the Granger radar were out most all day long. I had to use Dyess (Abilene) and San Antonio.

Pretty soon, a HUGE updraft exploded like a nuclear bomb into a large, very thick and crisp anvil (actually two cells close together) rapidly spreading out over Waco. It's by far the best structure I've seen all season. I picked up the pace and got around to McGregor to see the intense, rock solid updraft and crisp anvil hanging overhead. I was convinced that this would be a real monster. Sitting just south of Crawford, home of "Dubya" and bane of angry liberals everywhere, a local resident stopped by to tell me they just drove out of nickle hail.

Then, the updraft started waning just as it appeared to start going severe. It collapsed into a meager rain shower. I was thinking that this was just temporary, so I visited Crawford to see if any angry hippies and the Cindy Sheehan cult were lining the roadway. LOL!! Nope...very quiet and tranquil, but the patriotism was evident. There weren't even any black helicoptors or guys in suits and shades lurking around. I was disappointed. (For those of you starting to type up an angry blog entry or comment in response, I've voted Libertarian since 2000. Ha!)

Soon, another updraft erupted right over Crawford and this time, it looked like it meant business with a small beaver tail and flared base with rock solid updraft. They issued a SVR on it and looked great on radar. However, it wasn't long before it fizzled again and the successive updrafts trying to build and take it's place were looking very sick. I hung around for awhile to make sure that it fizzled, and then headed home.

I'm now looking forward to Thursday at yet another outbreak unfolding. Everybody will be talking about OK into Missouri and E KS, but I'll be keeping a close eye on North Texas based on the 00Z NAM. I have no faith in the NAM anymore this season..even with 12 hour forecasts. However, all of the models with the exception of the GooFuS model (I can't take credit for that nickname. LOL!) are in good agreement with the upper air feature. If the ECMWF is correct along with all of the models seeming to trend towards it's solution, then the mid level jet axis cuts right across N TX and S OK and good dryline punching into some moist, unstable air.

Dewpoint depressions again appear to approach 20F here at max heating, but a rapid cooling of the 700mb level prior to 00Z will result in some impressive 0-3km lapse rates and resultant 0-3km CAPE. If storms root on the dryline and move slower, then the storm relative shear would be quite impressive and help offset the cold pooling undercutting the updrafts. I think there is a potential tornadic supercell threat with that setup. But, the cold pool generation and outflow dominance will be a factor to overcome to be certain. If we get one or two lone isolated cells, that would help.

We'll see. It's kind of silly to try and get that specific this far out. But hey, I'm nuts anyway. LOL!!

Central TX Today and 4/1 Recap

4/1 pics are online: http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/April1/pictures

Yesterday, my good friend and chase partner Glenn Dixon, headed out to what we thought would be a tornado day. April Fools!!! LOL!! On the way to Childress, I was monitoring data and saw that the dewpoints were struggling to get into the "hatched tornado area" in addition to some mixing and dewpoint cratering just ahead of the dryline across the TX PH. On the otherhand, dewpoints looked better further south and I analyzed a pronounced, sharpening dryline punch through SE NM taking aim on Lubbock. Satellite analysis of the Cu fields there confirmed it. The RUC had continually been forecasting some ascent and decent mid level winds to overspread this area towards 21z and at one point forecast some convection down there. So, we kind of hesitated around Childress an started working our way westward.

A cell quickly popped up west of Matador and I made the decision to target it. Winds were backed nicely down there with lower 60Td and some mid to upper 60Td not too far away in the "source region". Unfortunately, several other cells decided they wanted in on the action and joined the party. Supercells are better as loners. :-) So, with all of the competition between them and being in close proximity, they undercut and contaminated each other (sorta like some aspects of the chase community, eh? LOL!!)

We followed the big cluster all the way to just across the Red River. We saw many wall clouds, shelf clouds, and plenty of higher based linear crap. this was puzzling because the low level inflow was screaming into these storms from the S to SE. I kept expecting a tail-end supercell to get organized and go nuts, but that didn't happen. We were treated to some good structure though towards sunset near Vernon. It had a striatated appearence with a couple of good inflow bands. We followed it across Big Red and setup shop to do some lightning photography. I got a few decent shots, but nothing to really write home about.

Interestingly, at one point after dark, a nice outflow boundary arced gracefully back into some new updrafts erupting near Vernon. you could clearly make this out on radar and the boundary had gone stationary. For one radar scan, the cell on the tail end near Vernon tried to hook on that boundary. It fizzled and everything then ended up on the cool side of the boundary.

So, what happened? In my opinion, two things. First, dewpoints were once again about 3-5F less than progged. This is emerging as a common theme this season. The dewpoint depressions were simply too high...15-20F. That's a good cold pooll generator. Secondly, the mid level storm relative winds were pitiful . With 500mb SW flow at 35-45 knots and 700mb SW at 30-40mph and at best and storm motions 30-40 mph, you get 15mph or less storm-relative winds. That's a sure-fire recipe for HP storms in my book. that was quite evident by what i witnessed too. As soon as an updraft waould mature and try to develop a wall cloud, boom, an intense preicp core would occur smack dab in the middle of it.

OK, so I didn't get enough abuse, I'm headed to central TX today. Something about LIs approaching -12 and CAPE over 4000 seems to be a refreshing change of pace so far this season. I think I'll go have a look-see. Stationary boundary with parallel mid level winds could make for an interesting setup in a highly unstable environment.

Chaser Convergence

It looks like the population of Childress will increase by about 25% here in a few hours as all of us chasers trek to the holy land...our "mecca" if you will. ;-)

I can't and won't add anything to all of the discussion out there as well as the great SPC forecast. It's pretty much a no-brainer today. Even my cat could see a tornado today.

Like my evil twin from Tulsa said, my camera lenses will be among the 500 out there today. So, everybody, don't chase angry!!! LOL!! Behave, because Uncle Chuck is watching you. :-)