March 30th Recap

Pics will be uploaded later to my main website. Here are some radar grabs I just uploaded: Click here. (I'm the little white circle)

It didn't end up being the big outbreak as everybody expected of which I as part of the chorus. I was totally stunned not to see anything happen at all in N OK after one cell fired and went TOR earlier in the day. I'm still puzzled over that one.

I finally made it to Tatums, OK yesterday and intercepted the TOR warned storm there. It had already produced a couple of tornadoes that Shane Adams caught while I was passing through Ardmore. It wouldn't produce anymore after that. Arrrg. it certainly tried though, but seemed to get undercut. All of the storms yesterday exhibited a distinct corkscrew appearance on radar...pretty cool. It seemed that the NWerly flow in the upper levels was spreading some precip and anvil debris SEward while storms were E to NE resulting in storms moving into their own precip-cooled airmass...a bit odd.

I followed that cell all the way to Roff, OK before giving up the weaker looking storms. I finally got a look at the updrafts which were all mushy. A good data interrogation drew me back to the Red River where storms were intensifying along the boundary there and were lining up more W to E with strong southerly flow feeding into them at a perpendicular angle....sort of force feeding them. I LOVE these types of setups, so I got down there as fast and safely as I could while navigating the hail cores on I-35 just north of Big Red. It's nice to have live radar with a GPS overlay. :-)

I saw a storm erupting over Montague county that was more isolated than the cluster to it's NE as well as seeming to come in a tad further south than the previous storm tracks riding up along those outflow boundaries. I also saw on surface plots that the low level winds were really roaring into these storms. Nice!! As I got south of Big Red near the Gainesville Outlet Mall, I was treated to some gorgeous storm structure...a rounded stacked plate updraft base with a nice beaver tail and mid level inflow bands. After that, it got fun as the inflow really increased and became stout.

I stayed with it as a TOR was issued on it...and right over my family's houses NE of Whitesboro. Yikes! I had warned them earlier when the baseball hail was being reported and I could see the rotation on G3 tightening up. I filmed an ominous lowering and wall cloud and tracked it to Sherman where I filmed some very rapid rotation that quickly tightened up right over the city...eerie to see the structure lit up from the city lights. It quickly got undercut and chased it about another 20 miles to the east filming the wall cloud along the way.

I broke off as I saw yet another upstream storm erupting south of Gainesville in similar fashion..a tad south of previous storms....riding right along those outflow boundaries. I got west of Gunter and was treated to an even more incredible structure view. I took some stills which I hope come out. This one soon got a TOR with good rotation couplets on it. I was all over this one too following it east of Van Alstyne. Ominous wall clouds again are all that I saw with one big green powerflash at one point.

No tornadoes, but I was in great positions most of the entire chase very close to the rotation couplets and the bears' cage. I'll give myself an A for effort. I still had a blast though and look forward to more of it this weekend!!

The end. :-) On a sidenote, my vx-2100 got a big hickie on it as it was victimized by the strong inflow winds while sitting on the tripod. Like an idiot, I left it to get something out of the car and "thud". Ouch. It's seems to be ok though outside the cosmetic hickie.

More fun possibly later today, but especially on Saturday and maybe Sunday!!!

TODAY - 3/30 - MAJOR OUTBREAK!!!

YIKES!

The extensive cloud cover and widepsread precip advertised by the models did not develop overnight. In fact, skies are clearing nicely over the entire risk area from N TX to KS. With stronger insolation, CAPE values should have no problem exceeding 2000 with very steep lapse rates and LI values. Jet dynamics are impressive and the dryline punch appears to be shaping up as an impressive one. In a nutshell, THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO MAY 3, 1999 (I didn't say "exactly"..so chill out) with about the only exception being lower dewpoints thus lower instabilities....so maybe we'll be spared the violent F4 and F5 tornadoes all over the place.

Regardless, there should be numerous tornadic supercells today and this evening from S OK northward to include all of the eastern half of Kansas. Long lived cyclic supercells appear certain along with the possibility of a long track tornado or two. I wholeheartedly agree with the strongly worded PDS statements today. I am gravely concerned that this could be a repeat of the Missouri outbreak a couple of weeks ago.

Already some strong storms are erupting over far western OK along the dryline. This is indeed going to be a long day for residents, emergency managers, spotters, and NWS employees as well as the Gary Englands out there.

I'll be heading out from Dallas as soon as possible up I-35 trying to target the Purcell/Ardmore region. My new VX-2100 camcorder looks to get quite an inauguration.

As a side note, the president of my personal fan club is retiring from public life after apparently accumulating his very own fan club members. I seriously doubt his absence will be permanent though. Drama queens are addicted to the spotlight much like bugs to a porchlight. Perhaps now a good dose of being on the receiving end of stalkers and personal vendettas will be a good, healthy learning experience for him. I don't know how the stormchasing world will ever survive now without a police force and judge keeping everybody in line and properly ranked. LOL!! I wish him the best. ;-)

March 30 & Beyond

00Z UPDATE: The NAM is looking a little more potent and showing a greater threat for tornadic supercells through southern Oklahoma into SE KS..especially SE KS. However, I think they'll be more embedded in grunge and precip north of I40 and tougher to chase. The more isolated cells and chaseable cells will be south of I-40. These I think will certainly be tornadic if they remain more isolated. I would be hanging out at Purcell, OK if I didn't have to work tomorrow. I should be able to make Ardmore though and if the NAM trend continues, then this would be a great area. We'll see....as the models turn. ;-)

In carefully reviewing all of the model data this morning and tying to balance it all with known biasis as well as pattern recognition, I'll throw my thoughts in on the setup for tomorrow (Thursday).

It appears the the critical mid level jet core will be situated north of the Red River through 00Z. That's not good if you are on this the anticyclonic side of it. Subsidence leads to warming and strengthening the cap. With forecast instabilities, I don't see any tornado threat either with weaker storms...if they even form at all. I'm skeptical of anything firing south of the Red River until after sunset. Adding to this horsefly in the ointment will be the forecast right exit region of the 250mb jet spreading over S OK and N TX right at peak heating. More subsidence.

The ONLY thing that might help is some model forecasts of a right entrance region of the mid level jet streak moving across at peak heating. That might just pop off an isolated storm this side of Big Red. Still not a tornado threat in my opinion. If we were talking CAPE values of 3000, then I'd be more excited.

The best action will be across central Oklahoma in the proximity of I-40. The best jet dynamics combined with at least marginal instabilities will pop some pretty good storms and perhaps a tornado or two. The problem here will be a more veered boundary layer flow reducing helicities. Grrrrr.....

I'm beginning to think that the better tornado threat will emerge across KS/NE, but surface based instabilities will be very weak. However, some strong lapse rates will offset that.

It's all kind of a mess right now, but I don't place my bets anymore until the mroning of an event. I'll spout more about it in the morning.

I'm anchored to the S OK and N TX option, unfortunately. But, as I've learned over the many years that I've been watching Texas weather, don't ever bet against a dryline plowing intoa moist airmass with westerly perpendicular winds :-). LOL!! The jet core might end up being a little further south or a little more broad than advertised. The RRQ of mid level jet might be strong enough to offset the other negative factors. Those are longer odds of course. I'll be happy to see some great storm structure.

Beyond, Friday has an interesting possibility with much better moisture and stronger instabilities approaching 3000. With a stationary boundary hanging around and good heating, there will be enough shear with 30-40 knot mid level winds for a favorable storm-relative profile. Not a tornado threat, but a good storm to chase might pop up.

Sunday is really starting to catch my attention as this may indeed be the first good system with adequate mosture and isntabilities to work with. It's a ways off of course. After that, the longer range models are looking quite promising with what looks like a very active April. That figures because I'll be in Denver for training the entire second week of April. Mark your calendars now for at least two significant tornado outbreaks....and here in N TX and S OK. :-)

The good news is that my new VX-2100 is waiting for me when I get home. :-)

As a side note, the president of my personal fan club is retiring from public life after apparently accumulating his very own fan club members. I seriously doubt his absence will be permanent though. Drama queens are addicted to the spotlight much like bugs to a porchlight. Perhaps now a good dose of being on the receiving end of stalkers and personal vendettas will be a good, healthy learning experience for him. I don't know how the stormchasing world will ever survive now without a police force and judge keeping everybody in line and properly ranked. LOL!! I wish him the best. ;-)

3/18 & 3/19 Summary

Sorry for the blog delay. We are in the middle of a major Oracle upgrade/conversion at work. 8i/9i to 11i. In English: "Two bottles of Tylenol, mass quantities of alcohol, and long hours". :-)

Before I jump into my summary, check out this amazing story of a Missouri teen who traveled 1,307 feet in a tornado with only minor injury:
"Missouri teen survives ride in tornado". Yikes.

I spent last Saturday and Sunday hanging around SW TX looking for storms. The
models failed terribly with the upper system and corresponding surface
features...namely the warm front. That sucker never made it much past I-10
despite some model forecasts taking it to the Red River. Overall, it was yet
another dismal model performance even 24 hours out. I have a feeling that this
is going to be a bad trend for this chase season. The NAM is proving to be
about as reliable as a deck of Tarot cards and a Ouiji board. I might add
those to my forecasting tool chest this year. LOL!!

SATURDAY: My forecast target around Sonora was right on the money...although
the storms fired up after dark. If I hadn't been exhausted from the all-day
trip from McKinney (left at 7:30 that morning) along with the dangers of night
chasing combined with thick fog and numerous deer all over the place, I would
have chased them. :-) They looked great on radar and the NWS-SJT issued a TOR
on those cells as they approached Sonora.

SUNDAY: I played the warm front again which had sagged a little further south overnight. Again, Sonora was my spot to wait between my two target areas along the warm front...Junction to the east and Fort Stockton to the west. I thought the east target might pop from the small impulse brushing that area that produced the strong morning storms near San Angelo. The west target was a pretty good bet to fire storms with a dryline and being closer to the upper energy from the approaching trough. But, the thermodynamics weren't as good with higher LCLs likely. They would be marching along the warm front though and intersecting outflow boundary from earlier storms. The west target popped and I soon intercepted those cells east of Fort Stockton.

They were certainly high based alright, but it was early and they hadn't hit the warm front yet. When they did, they started cranking up to 77dBz and strongly rotating. I had no intention of core punching. Here is a radar image. I'm the dot in the white circle running away. :-) All of my gadgets were working well including GR3 which allowed me to watch them start wrapping up and producing tighter velocity couplets on the SRV1 scans. It was easy to tell that a TOR was about to be issued. I had about 10-15 minutes before that lovely purple polygon popped up on G3. :-) The "spinning donuts" were popping up all over the place on ThreatNet too. I was popping some storm wood. ;-)

I got around and up to 190 where I stayed with the stronger cell that was a real beast on radar. The velocity couplets were impressive and I just knew a tornado was going to form..esepcially as the LCLs quickly lowered. But, nada. There was too much cold air cutting under it. It certainly was trying though. The cool part was that the warm front was about 5-10 miles to the south. The entire sky was moving towards the center point of the meso right along the warm front....like spokes on a bike wheel. You could make out the outflow boundary, warm front, storm outflow, storm inflow, etc. quite nicely. That was pretty wild.

After teaming up with one of the local spotters/Firefighters, we kept driving east and heard chaser reports of hen-egg sized hail. I was wondering who in the heck that might be until I saw David Drummond and Graham Butler along with Bob Schafer in his Porsche coming east on 190 from the teeth of the storm. LOL!! I caught up to them later and we briefly chatted and "flashed" our chaser gang signs at each other and joked around about my being there to represent "Those Damned Tulsa Chasers". LOL!!

David and Graham expressed a business offer of "getting a piece of the action" and oversee West Texas and the Panhandle for the "Tulsa Family". I agreed to present this proposal to the "Administration" whom I think will heartily approve. So, now "The West Texas Banditos", "The North Texas Largemouths" (of which I'm the Capo), and "Those Damned Tulsa Chasers" pretty much have the southern plains covered. Soon, there will be road blocks setup on the roads leading to storms manned by "Guido" and "Bruno". They'll be demanding "stormchaser union dues" for passage. Failure to pay up will result in bent antennas and broken anemometer cups. Capeche? :-) (<<< this is all a joke, folks...so stop typing that nasty blog entry, ok?)

It was tough to stay and chat for more than 30 seconds because this storm was bowing out right at us. They broke off and headed further south towards the better looking storms well south of I-10. I continued east on 190 thinking the storms were turning into big HP hosers. I got east of Eldorado and the TVS sigs went off again on a cell just to my north. The SRV1 tightened up again and as I could crest a hill and look, pronounced inflow bands were present feeding into the area of concern. But, no lowering that I could make it. It sooon dissipated.

I continued the long drive back home afte that though moderate to heavy rain. Fun. All up 377 too...no interstates. It took me forever and I was quite the tired dog when I made it. But, overall, a decent trip. My itching for an extended road trip though has been thoroughly relieved. LOL!!

Some pics:

I've never seen such a large roost of buzzards before. There must be nearly 100 of them on this radio antenna. I looked closely for members of my fan club, but I remembered that they roost elsewhere. ;-) Seriously though, can you imagine a big CG bolt lighting this thing up? Buzzard Pot Pie for everybody.


I stopped by and told them to behave and stop their nuclear program.


I succeeded in thwarting another turkey kamakazi attack on my vehicle. Run away!


We're not in Kansas anymore, Toto. This is I-10 west of Ozona.


The beast approaches.


Look closely. No...more closely. You can discern a precip hook forming around the center of the meso using the hills as depth/distance perception. It's easier to see with the big picture. (<<< pun alert)


This is as good as it got on Sunday visually. This is the "center point" I was telling you about. I'm looking south. The broad rotation was impressive.


A bonus set of photos!! These are from March 20 just across the Red River near Durant. I had raced north after work still tired from the weekend marathon. So, I had no chance to have fun with the cold core naders. But, some nice photo ops.

Chase 3/19

Yesterday, I missed the action by about 5 hours. At about 9:30pm, the first tornado warning of the day was issued for Sutton and Schleicher counties. I stayed around in Sutton county until it got dark and then headed back to San Angelo to stay. Dang it. LOL! A couple of nasty supercells formed about one county west and tracked along the warm front....and still are this morning.

It's early, but my analysis this morning is already indicating that this is going to be another tricky and conditional day. The biggest concern is that there will be too much precip developing early today over most of SW TX right where the better thermodynamics are forecast. Current radar trends already indicate a large band of rain from Pecos county NNE towards Childress. Satellite analysis doesn't offer any hope either for a clear slot. But, it's still early. I'll be watching it carefully through the morning.

The warm front has actually sagged south abit this morning. With ongoing precip to it's north and the amount of colder air and lack of sunshine north of it, I don't see it making it back to the I-20 corridor. It will be lucky to make it San Angelo in my opinion and the RUC is supporting this idea. It is also blossoming a big area of precip too over SW TX. So, San Angelo seems to be the place to stay for this morning and monitor data. But, I'm already seriously considering moving further SE to Junction/Kerrville and get on the warm front and to the east of the forecast large precip shield forecast to develop here. I'll make that decision later on this morning after more analysis, data interrogation, and the SPC forecast.

A word of extreme caution though for anybody chasing down here today. The deer are thick and all long the shoulders of the roads. I saw at least 30 fresh deer carcasses on the side of the road. Why? With the drought going on, there is nothing but dead grass to eat. With the rain they got, the runoff concentrated it along the sides of the road as it pooled and ran off in greater concentrations. I could see that the grass was much greener within about 10-20 feet of the road surface. Plus it's mowed, so it's easier to get to the fresh green stuff popping up.

OK...that's it for me....gotta get going.

3/18 Update From SW TX

Sitting here in Sonora immediately south of the warm front. There are a few breaks in the clouds, but pretty much overcast from a layer od mid level clouds. It's 70/63 here, but just to my SE, lower 80 temps are advecting NW. There is good convergence along the warm front and with such wild baroclinicity, something should (hopefully) pop in this area pretty soon. Nothing really encouraging on satellite yet as anything trying to bubble up....but I like the clearing trend. However, as I write, some surface based cumulus is starting to look healthy immediately to my west and now just to my north along the warm front. It's tough to distinguish though because of the poor contrast. Nothing to write home about though. CAPE is now around 1500 with 2000-2500 further west in the Davis mountains...which has been a target I've been considering seriously (miniture upslope conditions). It's after 4, so it's time for something to get going. Will decide to stay here or head west in a few minutes.

Chasing SW TX

It's a rare opportunity to chase in one of my favorite parts of my native state...the big open skies of SW TX. I don't have time for much of an analysis because I've got to hit the road here before 7am (shoulda left last night and stayed over in San Angelo). But, there will definitely be a decent opportunity for a tornadic supercell or two along a well defined and sharp warm front. It's the type of warm front I like with it being very shallow and slowly moving northward. I expect lower to mid 60Td to spread into the warm sector south of it. The LCLs will be low and the helicities and 0-1km and 0-3km profiles are all favorable for a tornado today. The caveat of course will be how extensive the clouds and precip will be in the warm sector. I'll be performing a "Spanish Inquisition" (Confess RUC!! Confess!!) on the data in Abilene and commit from there to head towards San Angelo. I'll try to send an update while on the road today.

If I bust, well, I bust. I'm used to it by now. LOL!! There are some things I want to see and check out down in Abilene and might stop by the Dr. Pepper plant in Dublin. If you don't know what is so unique about that particular plant...well...for starters it's the place where the Dr. Pepper is made with pure cane sugar. It's different and pretty tasty. Your dentist would hate it. :-) Check out the website: http://www.dublindrpepper.com/ 

Ides of March

(I've added one more picture that I forgot to include earlier)

In celebrating Ceasar's last stand (or is that Custer?), I thought I'd throw in a hodge-podge of things into the blog this evening.

My WxWorx receiver should hit the door tomorrow just in time for this weekend's possible chase. With that and Cingular cellular data and wifi spots all over the place, I have no excuse not to see tornadoes this year. LOL!! When the income tax check arrives within the next week, I'll complete my equipment wish list with a Sony VX-2100 to do my video more justice. I just hope I'll have gas money for the rest of the season. LOL!

I've finally started playing around with an old version of Adobe Premiere, but will likely go ahead and get the latest Pinnacle software. Anyway, here is my first stab at real video editing: June 12, 2005 - Tornado #1. I'll add the other tornadoes of that day as I get time. I'll also start using some of my own music. I've got LOTS of partial musical pieces and snippets/ideas recorded. I need to put forth the serious work of completing them all, editing, final mix downs, and mastering. I've got a few completed pieces that I need to remix and remaster now that I've got more computer horsepower to do so.

Last Friday was my first official chase of the season: Lighting Pics. I was pretty lucky that everything worked out with the water foreground at Lake Texoma and then the last picture with the big dipper and distant storm (quality is kinda crappy...will work on that).

Although Saturday was a bust, I had a good time with Bob Hall, Hans Schroeder, and my twin by namesake (and now by popularity/notoriety LOL!!) Steve Miller. Here is the "administration" discussing how to divide tornado alley into respective territories and which "Capo" will manage it for "da family"....at Schlotzsky's no doubt.



Hans came up with a gang symbol for us to "flash" (pun intended) at other chaser gangs this season. It's supposed to represent . We're still working on it as demonstrated by both Steve Millers. (courtesy of Bob Hall)



Yep...we finally meet and join forces for evil. Steve and I actually discovered that we are Dr. Jonas Miller's evil sons spawned from his secret romantic encounter with Dr. Jo Harding. (if you don't get it...go rent "Twister"...again). Be afraid....be very afraid.

Hmmm...that kind of makes me think of other infamous duos:

The original "yahoo" stormchasers. In a "storm of the century"....on a small boat....in 100 foot swells. Gotta love those expressions.
(added 3/16/06)



(thanks to Bob Hall)





..and actually, the Data reference would work nicely too.....



:-)

March 18-19

I'm like what I'm seeing on the GFS for this weekend. Strong upper dynamics, well defined warm front, dryline, incredible veering profiles, moisture, instability....all could make for an interesting setup. Too far to get carried away at this point...just something to watch. I'd love to chase SW TX or the Permian Basin. :-)

Tornadoes Ravage Missouri

Watching the news this morning is very sombering. 107 tornadoes were reported yesterday with most in Missouri. Several fatalities have already been reported with numerous injuries. There appears to be a great deal of damage. I fear that the full scope of this tragedy is yet to unfold.

Despite my critical statement about the SPC in the last blog entry, they did a helluva job on this event. I certainly believe that their efforts in sounding the claxons prior to this event unfolding translated into saving lives. They certainly had their hands full with this event.

I certainly do not mind that I busted big time yesterday. In fact, I'm quite happy about it in light of what I'm seeing on TV. The old saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for". If storms erupted as were being loudly advertised yesterday, more tragedy would have occurred without a doubt.

My prayers are certainly with those folks. I encourage everybody to consider making donations to the Red Cross or other agency helping out in this disaster.

ACK!!

In what is starting off to be another disturbing early-season trend, 2006 is getting off to start eerily similar to the past 10 years around here. Once again, the cap reigns supreme and here in early March, we have a late May type system. I don't like the way this season is starting out. I'm fearing that 2006 will be yet another year where almost all of the action all year long will be north of I-40 and west of the Caprock divide. Shane Adams had mentioned in his recent blog about the drought and it's effects on moisture. I concur.

What happened today? I think four things happened...in order of significance: 1) We were ont the southern side of the mid and upper level jets....subsidence and some slight warming to strengthen the cap. (I keep having to learn this lesson) 2) The moisture wasn't as deep nor as rich as advertised by all of the models. The consistent forecast was 65Td or better. We had 59-63 at best. Overall, out mixing ratios were lower which when plotted on a skew-t for visualization...makes it harder to bust the cap. 3) Just about the time the towering Cu was just about to bust through the cap..along comes a thick cirrus shield developing overhead. I was watching some decent towers trying to go up in Cooke and Montague counties which quickly died down and totally dissipated when the cirrus arrived. 4) Dryline convergence was weaker than expected.

The RUC really failed today big time...just to teach us all a lesson that yes, it is still just a model. :-) Even the NAM was breaking out some precip south of the Red River. As the human part of the equation, I wasn't alone in missing this one. The OUN and FWD area forecast discussions were hitting on it pretty good. The SPC was too with their strong wording in the outlooks backed up by another strongly worded MCD that extended well south of I-40 and into N TX. The consensus was at least a few isolated supercells anywhere between I-40 to I-20. Heck, the RUC with each successive run kept hitting the precip forecast harder and stronger from I-40 into N TX along the dryline. Usually by 18z, it's pretty darned reliable and I bit on it big time....hook line and sinker. :-)

Oh well...a nice drive to Ardmore. I stopped by Whitesboro to have dinner with my sister and niece which was fun...so not a wasted trip at all. It just kind of sucks to have two big whopping bust days in a row. But, that's chasing....and a way of life for chasers that live south of I-40. It used to irk the heck out of me....not anymore. You get used to it. I guess I'll have to wait for my chasecation later this season to actually see the good storms up in KS and NE and E CO.

And one more thing...AVOID I-35 NEAR THE RED RIVER!!!! It starts about 10 miles north of the Red River and southward to it. It's narrowed down to one lane (was last year too) and brings traffic to a very slow crawl for miles. You'll be there for 30-90 minutes depending on traffic flow and congestion. What a wonderful thing to do for a MAJOR INTERSTATE HIGHWAY..the artery for NAFTA. That's some real idiocy at work there. I'll spare ya'll my rant. LOL!! It's this way either direction. take the "Illinois Bend" bridge to the west or cut over to 377. Based on the progress in the past year, they'll still be screwing around for another year at the very least.

CHASE!!! (The Sequal)

1745z UPDATE: From SPC 1630z outlook: "THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MORE SLY -- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW LESS INTENSE -- FURTHER S ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N TX...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES
ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS."
OH MY!!!

It's nice to see the models get inline with a more westward solution that I've been ranting about. The NAM is still trying to rush things too far east. The 12z RUC has the right idea...and I wish the SPC would at least start taking a look at it instead of regurgitating the NAM output for Day 1 stuff.

Now that I've tipped over a sacred cow (if you know what cow tipping is...that's funny right thare), here are my thoughts.

I'm still sticking with a Duncan OK to Jacksboro TX for initiation according to the RUC at 21Z where it keeps that convection through 00Z. This is a classic looking setup of a stalling or quasi-stationary dryline with a couple of isolated cells rooting along it and themselves remaining more stationary. This does all sorts of crazy stuff to storm-relative parameters. :-) With a more isolated storm mode, I'm getting serious storm wood just looking at it.

Moderate CAPE values over 2000 and even approaching 3000 will provide plenty of octane. More importantly, the severe parameters for potential tornadic supercells are zeroed in on S OK near Big Red. I'll outline them:

0-2km Lapse Rates: 8-9C/km nosing into the area.
0-3km MLCAPE: 100j/kg
0-1km Positive Shear: 30 knots
0-3km CAPE: 225j/Kg
0-3km EHI: 3.0
0-3km SRH: 150-225
0-3km Shear: 50 knots
ML LCL: 1200-1400m (a tad high...but not outrageous)
ML LFC: 1600m (a very small spread from LCL)

(from Earl Barker's great site http://wxcaster.com/smallfiles_central_svr.htm)

The 12Z NAM is trying to show similar parameters by 00Z over DFW and similar precipitation pattern. It helps verify the RUC. :-) Speaking of which...the 15Z is jsut rolling in and it is still initiating convection along my target area by 12Z....even stronger.

Overall, I expect at least a couple of long lived, slow moving tornadic supercells over the Red River Valley region today. DFW to just north of Ardmore needs to really be on guard this evening. In fact, the whole dryline will be lighting up today, but this particluar region seems to be the bullseye target. Being on the southern fringe of the upper and mid level jets will work against a more violent tornado threat....at least typically. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out today.

Tomorrow's Thoughts & Cingular/GpsGate

The NAM this evening is slowing/shifting things westward abit for tomorrow. I still think initiation will be further west of I-35...somwhere along a Duncan to Jacksboro to Stephenville line. By the time they reach the I-35 corridor, they should be rocking and rolling. One scenario that looks likely to me is that the front/dryline will stall or crawl once it reaches this corridor. This is being hinted at by the NAM after 00Z. This would create a nearly-stationary updraft generation area (similar to Friday evening). That always makes things very interesting with regard to storm-relative parameters. Things could get pretty wild. I've seen this exact same pattern many times with the surface low pretty far north up into KS/NE area with a dryline stalling out or only crawling this far south...especially as it encounters the deeper moisture. I just do not see any reason why it should mix as far east as being forecast. We'll see what happens. :-)

With good moisture in place and CAPE values forecast to near 3000 along with the excellent shear and good veering profiles, the stage will be set for a significant severe weather event....although it might only be two or three isolated cells. DFW I think is in a potential hot zone. I believe that the dryline will light up from North Central TX into KS tomorrow with more isolated behemoths on this end. I'm not sure about the tornado threat yet, but with instabilities along with the other things I see setting up, there should be at least a few DITORs and some isolated tornadoes. I feel confident that it will be a very good chase day.

Now for Cingular. They have changed their no-contract policy regarding data connections with PC cards on laptops. You have to sign a minimum one-year contract. I balked at first until I realized my voice contract with Verizon runs out in August. So, when the guy at the store told me that I could switch it over to a voice plan then, it made sense to do it. At least I didn't have to buy the SIM card (you have to get a new one if you ever disconnect service). I'm a datahead now. It worked pretty well today despite the bust. This will augment my WxWorx service that I expect to start up in another week or two when my hardware comes in and I get everything hooked up. I should be a rolling SPC bubble of data now. LOL!!! I don't know if it will help me catch more storms or not...we'll see. :-)  If the rumors about WxWorx/ThreatNet come to fruition this year, I might be able to pretty much trash cellular access next year altogether.

Speaking of which, I dived in to getting my GPS split into virtual ports today to run all of my toys concurrently. Last year, I used GPSGate by Franson and it worked well. I downloaded again and installed it. But, I remembered that you have to download a driver from DeLorme to convert the USB into virtual COM serial ports first to get it all working. Imagine my surprise when I perused their website to discover that DeLorme has trumped GPSGate by now offering their own virtual COM port utility with the serial emulator for free. I installed it and it works just fine. It was fast and easy with only one reboot. It is limited to creating three virtual ports which is plenty for my needs. What is cool is that you DO NOT have to jack with the SA settings (at least on SA 2006...but I think it will work on 2004 and 2005 too). It still uses the USB port. :-)  Goodbye GPSGate. To download this new Delorme utlity, CLICK HERE. I noticed that they updated that page last May. How I missed that, I'll never know. I guess perhaps yet another 100,000 word psychological evaluation/analysis from somebody out there doubling as an amateur psychologist will help me get deeper in touch with my inner chaser. I dunno. ROFL!! ;-)

CHASE!

00z UPDATE: Well, the cap runneth over and the dryline crawfishes away. ;-) The North Texas Curse did it's job once again. LOL!! The NAM model sucks. The old ETA was more accurate than this piece of garbage. I'm really trying to recall some events that the NAM has nailed in the past few months and I'm coming up empty. The RUC by 15z was hinting at what transpired today and by 18Z was dead on...pleading with chasers to return home. LOL!! I still had a good time hanging out with Hans, Bob and Steve (my other evil twin). It's good to meet the "family". :-) Taking a look at the 12z ETA, I'm trashing it's solution. I've got a very strong hunch we'll be chasing west of I-35 tomorrow for the most part...probably starting out around Wichita Falls to Abilene or perhaps a couple of counties east of there. The 00Z run will be interesting. I'm thinking it could be a pretty big day tomorrow for N TX and S OK.

I kind of hated to miss TESSA today, but I can't think of a better excuse to do so than to go chasing some potentially tornadic storms. Already, strong storms have erupted in Denton county...here at 8:15am no doubt. So, this will be short.

No reason to really disagree with the SPC 13z discussion. The 12z RUC wants to hold up the dryline immediately east of I-35 for today which makes this even more chaseable. I'll be waiting here at home until it's time to head out. I plan on playing the I-30 and 380 corridor today as this area has the most favorable viewing area (relative to the E TX forests) east of I-35. It looks to be a great day. I've got to grab a shower, swing by and get something to eat, and hopefully get my Cingular data card activated. The typical online/phone customer service with them sucks as usual. They still don't have a clue that you DO NOT have to have a contract IF you already have your own card. I'll swing by the store where I got it done last year (the guy there is a HAM and Spotter too).

I hope to hook up with my Tulsa homies this morning...better give 'em a call and wake them up! Also, here are some pics of the storms I chased last night near the Red River around Lake Texoma: http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/2006/March10/

Gotta run!!! Hope to have pics by tomorrow. Good luck to all venturing out today!!

Saturday..TESSA or Chasing? (and a nod to VW)

I've been eyeing the model trends for a Saturday setup. Right off the bat, the jet streaks are just north of North Central Texas. That's already a big negative being on the anticyclonic side....although not in the right exit region...so not too bad. But, it's close enough so that any slight trend to the south would upgrade things in a hurry. The NAM is still showing some 700-500mb VVs.

At the surface, a warm front lifts northward to around the Red River/DFW vicinity by afternoon. There appears to be some pretty juicy dewpoints and good depth of moisture to the south of the warm front and SFC-850mb trajectories would favor good advection of the octane. Mid 60Td appears likely with 10-12Td at 850. SFC winds will be backed to the SE at 10-15 knots. 850mb S/SSE with a LLJ immediately to the E 25-35 knots. 700mb will be SSW with a good core of 40-50 knots moving through. 500mb SW at 50-60 knots. Does that vertical wind profile induce any heavy panting yet? ;-)

I'll be watching this trend carefully with the next model runs. The current 12Z I'm looking at is trending optimistic from the 00Z. Plus, it's in my own backyard and on a Saturday. Since I've got a lawncare service handling the mowing/fertilizer/weeds this year, it's one less chore to worry about. I still prefer to wage war against the fire ants myself with extreme prejudice. LOL!!

If things look to peter out and fizzle (after all...this is North Texas..ha), I'll attend the TESSA festivities. Every year, Martin Lisius and his associates keep making it even better. For more info, click here. I'll likely be there starting that morning and monitor the chase potential along with everybody else. My "associates" from the "Tulsa Mafia" will also be paying ther respects as they seek to expand their empire into North Texas which I'll be overseeing from my elitist ivory pedestal...all coordinated from within a super-duper-secret discussion list. ROFL!! (That's a joke folks...as in humor..spoof..satire. Chill out.) ;-)

Speaking of humor, I've got to stop here and tip my hat to the new Volkswagon commercials. You know...the "Unpimp ze auto" ones. It's rare to see something original, clever, unique, and I think pretty damned funny. I love the "gang sign flashing" for VW. LOL! I'm a fan. Interestingly, if you think you recognize the guy, his name is Peter Stromare. Want to see the videos? Click here. Maybe they'll do a couple of chase vehicles next. ;-)

Maybe my first chase of the season?

21z UPDATE: I'm a no-go based on current analysis. Me and thick cirrus canopies just don't get along. :-) The dewpoints as I feared earlier continue to drop as that bone-dry 850mb airmass advects northward and mixes. The current instability axis is very narrow and the cap is strong per 18z sounding and excellent SPC MCD. I'm thinking that when storms do form in the next couple of hours, they will be more elevated above the capping inversion. We'll see if they get rooted in the boundary layer later tonight as they move eastward which will be interesting overnight per the 20z SPC outlook. The show will come to me at home. :-0 As I type, I already see a storm forming within the embedded precip shield near Throckmorton....already too far for me AND embedded in a large precip shield. Blech.

17Z UPDATE (for Texas...NOT KS/OK): It seems that the moisture will be able to hang in there today per the latest RUC data. I think what I had missed this morning is moisture convergence at 850mb and a little better moisture from SW TX (that's pretty odd...no doubt). Anyway, the RUC shows better mixing ratios at 850mb indicative of better depth of moisture and as a result is showing a little better instabilities and LCLs. Still....I can see that bone-dry air on visible satellite moving northward and that worries me. What I did get right is some faster response by the BL winds (SFC-850mb) that the RUC is now advertising by 00Z. Although still not a good tornadic profile, it's definitely an improvement. If lucky, we'll get a couple of brief spinups during the daylight hours. It's still showing convergence and convection breaking out by 21Z from just west of Ardmore down to Brownwood within the axis of better instabilities. I see no reason to argue with that and will go with it. I'm hoping to leave abit before 3pm and west towards that area. The SPC outlook at 1630z sounded a little more scary for overnight tornadoes close to home. It looks like chase hangover for me tomorrow. LOL! I love it.

Looking at the models this morning (NAM/RUC), I'm not looking for tornadoes at all. However, the SPC discussion was pretty interesting with regards to an overnight nocturnal tornado threat close to home if storms remain rooted and move into a higher instability axis and better SREH.

Deep moisture is going to be a serious problem today. Looking at the 850mb analysis, there is ALOT of dry air all over the GOM source region (BRO 00Z sounding was -9C Td at 850mb..yikes!). The more SWerly trajectories today at that level certainly won't help. I'm a little skeptical of the forecast 10-12Td at 850mb for N TX into E half of OK later today. It also begs for the potential of mixing out surface dewpoints. I've been burned before in this type of setup where the models are overly optomistic with dewpoints only to see them drop steadily lower during the afternoon. This trend will have to be watched for today. to complicate things, I've got to question the advertised 850mb and even surface forecasts as I'll detail below.

Despite that, the upper dynamics look pretty impressive...particularly after 00Z. 250mb jet noses into the area about that time bringing good divergence and abit of diffluence spreading out over N TX. The same can be said of 500mb with a 70+ streak rounding the base of the trough aimed right at N TX. With such strong dynamics and PVA hanging out further west, I'm really wondering if the surface and 850mb wind fields will be as slow to respond? I certainly don't have a met degree, but I've seen this numerous times where BL winds and pressures respond faster to such intense energy from upstream dynamics. I can't wait for the 12z runs of the models to see how this is resolved by the models. Our marginal looking setup could change abruptly with more backed 850mb flow...although moisture will still be an issue in my opinion. We'll see...just something to watch for.

Regardless, the bigger show will be after 00Z. I expect to see some pretty vicious hailers with this one and good lightning producers (it seems that way anyhow with very steep lapse rates and drier air). I certainly will be heading out from work around 3pm which means storms have to be within driving distance....another caveat for me personally today. Good luck to everybody going out and hopefully storms will erupt with a little daylight left. I'll be glad when DST rolls around. :-)

Does anybody else hear an annoying, buzzing sound? Hmmm...guess that's coming from one of the drama blogs of my fan club members' continued obsession with me. LOL!!!! I rest my case. Ya'll need some considerable professional help...seriously. Go get a social life...like a GF or something to occupy your overly-abundant spare time...ok? Your cat would appreciate it. Just some friendly advice from somebody who cares. ;-)

Moving right along......

Intersting note. As of 21z, Wink is reporting a temperature of 94F with a dewpoint of 2F. With a station pressure of 1007mb, that's 3% relative humidity! Dryline indeed. :-) As of 22z, unfortunately, my target area is socked in with thick clouds. latest RUC progs are showing better parameters a little further south west of OKC around Geary/Weatherford/El Reno where skies have cleared and some nice cu forming...but not much in the way of surface convergence which is worrysome. The actual convergence and true dryline is further west along the TX/OK border. The RUC is still breaking out precip further east...perhaps along 850mb convergence? I'm definitely pulling my tornado prediction. :-)

Finally....the first chase of the season!! As a career-driven sort of guy, I'm working today :-( So I'll be armchair chasing and perhaps some nowcasting (the next best thing to actually being there). Looking at the latest 12z models NAM/RUC and doing an eyeball analysis of the surface plots, my target area today is bounded by Wakita, Alva, and Medicine Lodge with initiation just west of there.

With a more westerly component to the mid level winds and based on both the NAM and RUC precip pattern, it looks like a good day to get a couple of good storms more isolated (at least a tail-end charlie) with some possible deviant movers to the ESE. Of course, if there are any deviant movers, the SREH values would increase significantly. I know....there's not enough CAPE there to support any strong deviant movement (at least that's what I remember reading somewhere).

A couple of tornadoes look likely to me today...particulary with any right turners. Should be some pretty good hailers for the core punchers out there. :-) Good luck to all that are able to venture out.

For tomorrow? The NAM seems to be getting ahold of the "North Texas Curse" as an initialization parameter quite nicely. LOL!! It is smacking the dewpoints and moving the focus westward. I'll worry about that in the morning though. After this weekend though, winter looks to make a return visit for awhile. :-( However, after the past few seasons of a "hot and dry" March followed by a dismal chases season south of Kansas, maybe this is a good sign. I know...I know...but it gives me eternal hope of chasing again south of I-40 and east of the caprock sometime this year. :-)

The Last Word (hopefully)

Well, now that everybody has come out of the woodwork and taken their shots at me, I thought I'd clear up some of the the intentional misinformation being spread around by my personal fan club. I've been patient and very restrained while I've endured a ton of crap being thrown at me. I thought my fan club would have shot their wad and been done with it. Nope. In response however, I'll spare you a 100,000 word dissertation.

It's really very simple. I argued against the secret, private list created on Stormtrack last year (and it wasn't in no testing phase either). Why? Because the original intent of Stormtrack was to always be open to ALL chasers. They didn't have a separate secret publication being printed and sent out to a selected elite membership. The original online version was the same way. I made a stand to keep that spirit and original intent alive. Call me old school if you want. For the record, I made it crystal clear on several occasions that my beef wasn't with private lists OUTSIDE of Stormtrack. I repeatedly made that distinction. I didn't give a crap about somebody forming their own private groups elsewhere.

Anybody that truly knows me knows without a doubt that I would never conceive of proposing such an idea. In fact, if you dig around enough, you'll see that I took the initiative in starting a couple of open forums for chasers myself including storm-chase@yahoogroups.com with the intention of gently moderating the list to keep the signal to noise ratio high and the flame wars squelched including personal attacks. It never really took off though even with several hundred members signed up. Interestingly, a member of my current fan club was one of the moderators of this list.

Anyway, since Tim V disbanded the private group and reorganized StormTrack, a couple of members of that list really became infuriated and certainly let me know that in private emails. One in particular has made it his life mission in trying to seek me out and destroy me in the public realm. Instead of just letting it go and dealing with it from over nine months ago, they've embarked on a vicious and obsessive personal vendetta. In reading the blogs out there, you can easily see that for yourself. The recent "discovery" that I was on a private list OUTSIDE of Stormtrack really sent them into a feeding frenzy by seizing the opportunity to really "teach me a lesson" and to "expose me to the world for what I really am". They were ecstatic that they had finally "ferreted me out". I can't help but think of a scene from a western movie: "Hey, Sheriff, they's a callin' you out". ROFLMAO!! I can't make this shit up. My pet name for them is "The StormCult Character Assassination Hit Squad". Like it? ;-) I'd love to do a parody of "Kill Bill Volume One" and assign names to the members like "Vortex", "Helicity", "Meso", "Theta-E". I might ask for other creative input later down the road if this crap keeps up.

I don't define my self worth as a person according to my current stature in the "stormchasing community". Others do however and my fan club members will undoubtedly continue their harassment and personal vendettas against me as they seem to have PLENTY of time and motivation to do so. That's what psychotic obsessed stalkers do....especially when they have a score to settle. So look for more derogatory blog posts and other efforts coming soon to a drama blog near you...especially after they read this. I can hear their veins bulging in their necks already as well as their feet stomping and teeth gnashing. LOL!!! I predict that the venom about to be spewed forth will be even more toxic than before. Heck, with the current trend, I expect to see a 500,000 word unauthorized biography of myself hitting the bookstores soon. LOL!! Will they finally just let this matter die and go on with their lives? Nope. Not until they have felt like they've won. This crap will be ongoing for years. The CAPE values are off the chart. (CAPE in this instance is the Chaser Anger Potential Equation).

So, there you have it. The "other" side of the story. This is truly MY last word on the subject because kids, I've got better, more healthier things to spend my time on that are more deserving of my attention and energy. (Hey...is that a storm system coming up this week?) The world of stormchasing is but a very small part of it and is a hobby. I've also found that most people out there just don't give a crap about this whole mess and I certainly don't blame them. I've already written way too much and given this way more attention than it deserves. I am though truly concerned about the mental health and stability of my fan club members as they continue their obsession with me. Hmmmm....maybe there is a cure. I'll let Robin Williams speak for me here: http://161.58.5.90/vietnam/bj.wav

OK, kiddies, run to your keyboards and start angrily typing out your next blog post. :-) We're all watching and waiting for your next slam against me or yet another deep psychological analysis. LOL!! All the world's a stage. But, please spare us and keep it under 5000 words, ok?

This is my last word on the subject. Unfortunately, it's not going to be for my fan club members. I've had my say on it. It's time to move onward....like it was over nine months ago.

Addendum: You had best be worrying more about your behavior on the road (I'm worrying about it too as I've made mistakes like everybody else) and elsewhere including other chasers falsely impersonating NWS employees to get past roadblocks as happened in Rooks, County KS last year on June 9th. If you REALLY want to go out and save the stormchasing world from evil, there's plenty there.

2006 Inaugural System Redux & SA2006

Wow. It looks like Ma Nature next week might be getting as riled up as a few individuals out there over private discussion lists. ;-)

It really does seem like ages since I've seen this type of upper air pattern for Texas and Oklahoma. It's a major shift compared to what I've been accustomed to in the past with early season ridging deflecting the systems up into Kansas. Maybe...finally...we'll actually have a chase season south of I-40 this year. In addition to that, what appears to be shaping up as an active pattern for the next couple of weeks is good news for some significant drought relief for my fellow Texans.

The GFS and ECMWF are pretty much in sync at this point with the ECMWF looking a little stronger, deeper, and a tad slower. I'm going with the slightly stronger trend of the ECMWF as these systems often end up being stronger than advertised this far out.

Therefore, with it still being early March, there will be lots of broad, strong vertical ascent with this system and stronger linear VVs. It appears to me anyway that it will be one heckuva squall line generator as well as producing a large rain shield with embedded storms out ahead of it. At least this is what I think the main mode will be. On the other hand, it's a very potent system and on any given day, we could certainly get a favorable setup such as an exiting early morning impulse clearing things out along and ahead of the dryline in time for max heating. That's pretty much Day 1 stuff though. No harm in fantasizing though. LOL!

I've got the new laptop ready to go including a new install of StreetAtlas 2006. The voice recognition feature does seem to be an improvement over previous versions. After about a 10 minute training session to get it familiar with my Texas accent, I gave it a test drive yesterday while commuting. I was quite impressed with it's reaction and performance. It also looks like some serious updating to the road networks. I just sampled a few locations I know of and they are now up-to-date. However, the "Illinois Bridge" along the Red River still isn't there, but at least 661 leading up to is there now...except it shows it dumping into the Red River. A personal favorite is a one-lane bridge I know of east of Denison (the "Jefferson Bridge") is now displayed. Although some of the FM roads in Texas are now colorized I'm still disappointed that several show up as plain side roads. It knows they are FM roads because if you hover over it, it says it's an FM road. A note to the programmers: if(roadType == "FM") { roadColor = "orange"} else {roadColor = "gray"} LOL!

Well, off to finish prepping the vehicle and cameras as well as the fishing gear for hunting some monster largemouths (no...not irate chasers) on Ray Roberts tomorrow!

A note to my personl fan club members: I've joined yet another super-duper-secret elitist discussion list. We even have a secret chaser decoder ring and handhsake. Hurry!!! Rally your troops to defend the stormchasing world!!! I need to be ferreted out exposed!!! ROFLMAO!

2006 Inaugural Chase - Update #3

The models' trend ain't looking too good right now with pitiful moisture return according to the latest 12Z runs. I was informed that the NAM has a bias of overforecasting moisture return in advance. It looks like it to me this go around. I'm not that desperate to drive to Amarillo for upper 40's dewpoints. Heck, we haven't even reached the Ides Of March yet (et tu, Brute) which is my personal official start to the season. This will give me some time to get the gear together in the vehicle, my new laptop all configured and loaded, and a windshield replaced thanks to a gravel truck. Heck, looks like a great weekend to do some other tailchasing for monster largemouth bass at Ray Roberts or Lake Fork. I hear that the spawn has really kicked into high gear. :-)

It's too bad that this first system of the year is petering out. I know alot of folks including myself were looking forward to some SDS relief. I guess my personal fan club members out there won't have anything else better to do now except to keep feeding their obsession about my personal affairs, private business, and digging up dirt. Nanny nanny boo boo...I'm rubber....you're glue. ROFL!

2006 Inaugural Chase - Update #2

It's good to see some good consensus in the models for this upcoming system. I'm not at all trusting of them this season yet as to surface biasis, so I'm not going to fret too much over those details as far as moisture, instability and precipitation until the day before. Once upon a time, the ETA almost always underforecast dewpoints even 48 hours in advance. I have no information to make such assumptions with the NAM as the new season approaches. So, I'll worry about that as time draws nearer and look for trends with each successive run.

With THAT disclaimer out of the way, I do really like the vertical wind profiles for the event shaping up for Saturday. Anytime the mid and upper level winds are progged to be from the west perpendicular to a dryline, I'm going to pay serious attention to that setup. The NAM is also showing a more backed surface to 850mb flow with good 0-1km and 0-3km veering and shear profiles with WSW/SW winds at 700mb. The problem with that though is the higher LCLs as a result of the meager forecast dewpoints won't be able to take advantage of that. If however we realize better dewpoints, things get more interesting. Even with the current NAM depiction, CAPE values are still enough to get some good storms out of this setup. The lapse rates should be pretty decent too with strong BL insolation. Another factor to consider is the precip forecast and configuartion offered by the NAM. We could certainly have an outflow boundary to play with as well.

I would have to go back and verify this of course, but this setup sorta reminds me of an early April chase I had back in 1998 (don't laugh...I was just a newbie stormchaser...and still am...LOL):

http://www.texastailchaser.com/chases/vernon040698/main.htm

Bring on more model runs!! :-) I still plan on chasing this one at this point if for no other reason to see what convection looks like again..it's been awhile. ;-) I've gotta work on getting the vehicle geared up which thankfully won't take much since I left most everything intact....gotta get rid of this damned bronchitis first.