Orphan Works - Call To Action

If you have any interest at all in protecting the copyrights of your photographic work, please read this about "Orphan Works" legislation coming up for a vote before Congress:

http://www.asmp.org/news/spec2006/orphan_faxcall.php

I'm not going to rehash what is already stated in that link. But, don't think for a second that this won't apply to video as well. Heck, this could even include music, paintings,literature, etc. Because of the language in the bill, it will make ALOT tougher to pursue infringement litigation and nearly impossible to receive compensation above "normal and customary licensing fees" once you do catch the crooks.

Think I'm being paranoid? Take a look at these two websites that support and encourage the legislation (a credit to Kathryn Piotrowski for finding these):

http://www.arl.org/info/frn/copy/orphanedworks/
http://www.publicknowledge.org/issues/ow

Please take action now by following the instructions in that first link I posted.

2006 Inaugural Chase Update #1

Intersting to note that since my post yesterday, the GFS fell back into line with the ECMWF...another reason why the EC is my preference for crystal ball gazing.

Right now, I think the upper air pattern being forecast is a good one. I'll bite on it. The scenario I painted yesterday of a big honking squall line doesn't appear likely at this point in time. The biggest variable in my opinion will be the weak cool front by mid week. How far south will it sag? How far will it retreat northward as a warmfront by Friday/Saturday?

There are indications that the front may in fact end up stretching across the Red River Valley and North Texas with precip to the north of it. With a good southerly low level jet perpendicular to it and the mid level winds parallel to it, things could get a little more interesting. The other caveats like instability of course will be an issue since it is the first week of March.

I can't wait for the next model run. :-)

2006 Inaugural Chase?

There is alot of chatter about the system approaching next weekend. I'm certainly looking forward to it regardless of the setup. I'm a firm believer of Al Mollar's mantra of "you chase when you can". Since I'm now in a category of being a "hobbiest" chaser, it fits perfectly into my weekend plans (if you're reading this Shane...it's a joke) :-) But, I'd like to offer my opinions based of course on the flippy-floppy models.

I'll use that as my first discussion point. The models are trying to get ahold of the transitional season change right now. They always have a tough time when the upper air pattern starts convulsing and shifting as the sun's increasing angle starts heating and stirring things up in the northern hemisphere. As a result, there are significant differences in the ECMWF and GFS with the latter having a sharper more amplified trough. I want to see a few more runs to see some sort of consistency. For now, I'll play with the 00Z run.

The biggest problems this early in the season are 1) Systems are usually very strong and there is little cap. The result is strong linear forcing and cells exploding all at once into a squall line 2) moisture return is usually shallow and meager and 3) this time of year, the WAA at 850mb ahead of these systems is very strong resulting in thick cloud decks and often vanguard precipitation breaking out all over the warm sector thus killing our instabilities. We often get a good pacific moisture plume thrown into the mix as well with mid and high level cloud decks to deal with.

This system certainly qualifies in all three respects. If the GFS is correct, then the forcing will be strong with little or no cap and strong surface convergence. A good candidate for a squall line. The GFS is showing a typical meager moisture return scenario with surface dewpoints struggling to make it to even 60F...mostly 50's and fairly shallow. High based storms even if surface temps make it into the mid 70's (if they don't, then instability will still be weak with 500mb temps only around -15C). The model is hinting at alot of SW to SSW flow at 850mb naturally being so far south of the forecast surface low position. This will help to scour moisture just ahead of the dryline as daytime mixing ensues and keep moisture shallow. However, this combined with SW 700mb winds might help clear out some of the low clouds ahead of the dryline to get some insolation to aid with lapse rates.

The last thing I see is mostly a unidirectional wind profile as well from 850mb on up...again favorable for squall lines and continuous seeding from downstream cells...especially with the 700-500mb flow being nearly perpendicular to the dryline.

With all of that being said, it has been my experience that the GFS positions surface lows too far north this time of year. Instead of being up in Nebraska, my bet is that it ends up closer to Dodge City if the upper air pattern verifies. That of course will likely change with the next model run. :-) But, a surface low further south would make things more interesting.

I think it is safe to say that we WILL get a system in here by next weekend that will produce severe storms. Even if it is a squall line, those can be pretty cool to chase if they are intense enough. My SDS is pretty bad right now...especially with the prolonged drought we are in. So, I'll be looking forward to it if for no other reason than to escape the DFW metromess and see what convection looks like in person once again. :-) More to come as the event approaches.

Chaser Convention Occlusion (as in wrap-up)

After surviving the record low temperatures of -13F and a two hour flight delay, I'm glad to be back home. I see that my forecast once again was off. At least a broken clock is right twice per day. I didn't even do that good. ;-)

Overall, the convention was "ok" for me personally considering it was my innauguration. Although I got some benefit from it and Roger/Tim and company did a good job with the logistics overall and attracting some excellent speakers, I'm not expecting I'll attend future conventions. A little over $500 combined with air travel headaches is a little steep for me personally. Anyway....

With Jon Davies' and Dr. David Gold's presentations, I added a nice arsenal to my forecasting tools and knowlege. In particular, I will pay more attention to 0-1km EHI and 0-3km CAPE values. The LCL/LFC depth is another parameter I'll be looking at closely in relation to cap strength and tornado potential (closely correlated of course to 0-3km CAPE values). It was also good to take a closer look at case studies of non-supercell tornadoes (landpouts). For the first time, seeing the thermodynamic profile (via skew-t) for these setups filled in a big gap for me. It's pretty simple really....practically nil CIN and near dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LCL. All of this of course depends on proper and correct sounding modifications for the late afternoon. This can be done manually, but takes considerable time when modifying for upstream parameters and expected/forecast boundary layer. I'll be exploring software tools to help out here. Lastly, it was good to hear a little more detail about the cold core events from Jon Davies.

We also found out that the wind profiler network will be severely jeopardized due to massive personnel cuts by the NWS. Even if you don't use this data directly, it DOES feed into the RUC model initialization. The program isn't being mothballed, but when a profiler goes down, it may take weeks or even months to get it back online. I fear that if profilers like Jayton and/or Tucumcari black out, we'll pay the price big time for systems in W TX, OK and W half of KS.

Dr. Joe Golden gave a great presentation on waterpouts and reveleaed some fascinating characteristics and environmental parameters that favor their formation. I was pretty motivated afterwards to go chase these things in the middle of the summer. That might be a good future retirement plan for me. :-)

Dr. Greg Forbes gave an excellent presentation on climatology and La Nina comparisons concerning the current drought pattern to those of the past. Not surprisingly, there's really nothing concrete there as the numbers are all over the place. He did ALOT of work and research.

Of course, Tim Samaras and Tim Marshall's presentations were quite entertaining and as usual very informative. Check out the agenda for their respective presentations. I really liked Marshall's damage survey presentation.

Dr. Josh Wurman gave a nice presentation which helped me better understand some of the technical limitations and obstacles with regard to mobile radar studies of supercells. It was also fascintating to see some of their efforts regarding hurricane studies. Seeing the images of "boundary layer streaks" in a hurricane was very interesting. I also learned of their efforts in wildfire research and using forecast models to predict a fire's behavior out to one hour. that's a significant amount of time for firefighting resources to react and respond to. Good stuff.

I also found out that some improvemnts are on the way for ThreatNet (WxWorx). They might not be ready until June however. As far as the details, I couldn't pry much out the person I was talking with. But, speculation is that the bandwidth limitations that restricted the data flow will be elimintaed or greatly improved. They have been listening to our emails and suggestions. This of course translates to SPC and forecasting products and perhaps improved radar images. We shall see.

I missed the last half of Jim Reed's presentation though. That was the main thing I wanted to take away from the convention concerning the business end of photography and videography. He got started late because of delays in the scheduling which ran into my departure time. Had I been smart, I would have called American Airlines and discover the two-hour delay. Oh well.

The keynote of course was by Dr. Doswell regarding chaser ethics, safety and potential repercussions. He really kicked everybody in the butt...so to speak. He made ALOT of very valid points and observations which I've also harped about alot for many years now (except I get a good stoning over it...he gets applause...lol!). The ironic thing though is the type of people he targeted most negatively...a few of them were in the audience. They of course applauded and showered him with praise afterwards. Pull out your psych books on that one, but it's safe to say that they in no way see themselves as part of the problem...which IS a problem. Chuck's speech will quickly fade away with the first plains red box of the upcoming season as the chasers in question do whatever it takes to one-up everybody else or simply to "acquire their stripes"....whatever the hell that means anymore. I'll write more about this later down the road when I have a chance to review my notes and collect my thoughts.

Along that same line of thought, it was nice to not to be part of the political circles and cliques that were obvious at the convention. I kept pretty much to myself most of the time and discovered that I'm quite comfortable fading into obscurity within the "stormchasing community". That's a good thing...believe me. In fact, everybody thought I was the "other" Steve Miller from Tulsa. He'll get a kick out of that. ;-)

There are a couple of funny moments to note as well. Sunday morning during breakfast, the local cable station tested the EBS system using the familiar tones we all know and love on NOAA Weather Radio. The reaction through the entire room of chasers along with Angie and Sarah at my table was hilarious. The second funny thing that happened was while in the hotel van en route to the airport on Sunday. Bill Hark was sitting next to me and we were discussing our real jobs. He turned and asked me if I was a meteorologist. I instantly replied: "No. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express". :-)

Greetings From Deep Freeze Denver

As I write, it is -7F outside with developing ice fog. At least I think it's ice fog because I've never seen it before. It's damn cold. The forecast low is -15F. I just saw a reading in NW Nebraska of -24F at this hour. I can honestly say that Texan blood begins to freeze at -7F.

The plane trip was pretty good except for sitting on the taxiway for about 20 minutes waiting for a gate to clear. This is also my first trip to the Denver airport and it's "unique". An automated train runs between a deidicated baggage claim and passenger terminal to the 3 concourses. It's the only way you can traverse the airport. Kinda wierd.

Then, I had to wait out in this insane cold weather for the hotel shuttle for almost 30 minutes. For a modern airport, this part of it is very poorly designed and planned. Once it arrived, we ran around in a circle for another 30 minutes picking up other passengers before making yet another 45 minute trek to the hotel.

Anyway, I'm here and all comfy. I had prime rib and a very delicious clam chowder followed by a couple of beers. Life is good. :-)

Winter Weather Update

Even after the NWS today issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of North Texas starting Friday night, I was still being stubborn. After looking at the 00Z ETA this evening, it's even tougher to continue sticking with my forecast. We're only talking a range of 5 degrees here which is within typical error range this far out. However, the cold ari up in the central plains at this hour is pretty strong and cold with single digits in Nebraska and NW Kansas. It's sub-zero in the western fringes of Nebraska as I write. That's colder than I expected and is certainly on par with the ETA 6-hour forecast. Some of that will filter down into Texas. The other caveat is that the upper system out west isn't quite as strong resulting in a little weaker zonal flow. This will allow more of the cold air to ooze south rather than get swept eastward. With expected evaporative cooling from the precipitation along with everything else I mentioned, I see no reason to doubt the forecast temperatures. This spells trouble for Northern Texas for freezing rain and sleet as the cold air will be shallow.

As far as precip, the NAM is really showing a good 850mb pattern for warmer, humid overrunning from generally the south with pretty strong 700mb winds from the SW. I've seen this exact pattern on numerous occassions produce more precipitation than the models forecast. We almost always can be guaranteed a few ripples and impulses in the upper flow trekking across the area which are rarely picked up or handled well by the models. So, I'm pretty confident that we'll see more precip than is currently advertised by the NAM. Look for a trend from this model towards more precip for the weekend. With temps hovering near freezing and a shallow polar airmass in place, this will result in freezing rain and sleet.

I don't see a heavy ice storm at all with this event, but enough to really cause major headaches on the bridges and overpasses. Roads will NOT ice over because the ground has been baking pretty much all winter....it was 85F at DFW today. The ground is extremely warm for this time of year. It will not get cold enough or long enough to ice the roads (except in shadow areas like under bridges). But, bridges and overpasses will turn into a skating rink. If history repeats itself, the TxDOT folks will wait until the bridges ice BEFORE applying sand/salt. Beuracracy at its finest. So, hang around and sleep in until things improve in the afternoons when the temps get above freezing again. I'll be in Denver all weekend for the stormchaser convention. So, I'll miss all the fun. :-) 

Flipflops & Waffles

Not surprisingly, the models can't decide how to handle the upcoming pattern change. Just as they start showing some consistency and making sense, they start shifting towards another solution. Now they are arguing with each other and flipflopping. It's definitely going to turn colder and the upper air pattern is making a significant shift. However, the extent and range of both are in serious question.

The 12z GFS showed a colder solution than the preceeding run but still digging an upper low down along the west coast with broad, strong zonal flow across the central part of the country. The 00Z ETA just rolling in supports this upper air solution and showing it even stronger. All of this lines up well with the ECMWF which is buffering the cold air a little more.

I'm going to stick with my guns on this one as there is NO snow pack between here and the Canadian border. With strong mid and upper level zonal flow, it will do a good job of shunting the big Canadian surface high and associated polar air to the east instead of southward. It's size and density (1045-1050mb) of course will allow the colder air to ooze down into North Texas by Friday, but it will be quite shallow and significantly modified by the time it gets here. It will though allow for an extended event of periodic precipitation due to an overrunning effect combined with a series of weak disturbance rippling across. With enhanced evaporative cooling and thick cloud cover, it will enhance the cold air abit.

The bottom line? I don't see it dropping below freezing south of the Red River here locally. I think our high temps will generally be in the low to mid 40's mainly because of precip and clouds. I'm not expecting anything freezing around here at all. Across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle and far NW TX however, temps will get below freezing and due to the shallow nature of the airmass, we could be looking at a decent freezing rain event there. Still way too many variables and details of course to attempt zeroing in on locations....which is usual this far out. For those attending the Denver convention this weekend, it's gonna be pretty darned cold. I'm packing my heavy coat. :-)

I am beginning to strongly suspect that Indian Summer may indeed be snuffed out for awhile though. On the horizon, the models are indicating a strong shortwave developing way up near the arctic circle and then diving rapidly south next week. This will open the door for a much more significant arctic invasion if this pans out. Stay tuned for that one.

Old Man Winter Headfake

Well, it appears that Indian Summer isn't ready to be so easily quashed. The latest 12z model runs continue a trend from the 00Z runs towards a pattern that isn't conducive for an arctic invasion. They now break off a big piece of energy further west long the West Coast while weakening the big vortex that was earlier advertised to strengthen considerably.

The result will be a very strong zonal flow with the upper jets bisecting the country. This keeps the more bitter artic air bottled up and restrained while also lessening it's intensity. For the southern plains, some fairly cold air will seep in, but it won't be brutally cold and pretty shallow in nature. It now appears that we here in Texas will be able to keep the arctic parkas in the closet for the foreseeable future....and heck....maybe even some severe weather in the distant future. It at least looks like a more active pattern for precip at the very least. Good news for some drought relief.

I think mother nature is holding out on an arctic blast until March and early April...to really screw up our chase season. She can be one sick individual. Ask any North Texas chaser. :-)

Old Man Winter Wakes Up

It finally feels like winter today here in North Texas for the first time since early December. This is the first winter I can remember where my coat has rarely been required. Most of January, although bone dry, felt more like April. Mother nature however, like cats, abhors a vacuum. ;-)

To retaliate against a prolonged Indian Summer, the atmosphere is undergoing a major alteration in the upper air pattern. A rather large upper vortex has developed over the NE US and will reorganize/retrograde westward to the northern Rockies. The models of course are having difficulty in formulating a final solution on how this will all play out in 5-10 days.

However, it is certain that a very large and bitterly cold arctic airmass will build over most of Canada and begin to invade the US next week. With strong westerly and even south-westerly flow aloft, it will be quite a headache in trying to determine how far south it will move, how quickly and more importantly how much it modifies.

Right now, there isn't any snow pack between Texas and the Canadian border. That will tend towards more modification. However, the cold air will continue to be reinforced as the upper cyclone hangs tough. Normally, we get a big glob of arctic air that blasts into the US and then that's it. Not this time. In short, the north pole shifts southward. Depending on how long this upper cyclone remains in place, we could be in for a pretty prolonged period of very cold weather here in the plains.

In my experience, what ends up happening in this pattern is that the density of the airmass ends up oozing southward under the prevailing upper flow resulting in a shallow but very cold arctic airmass reaching into Texas. It usually accelerates too because of the damming effects of the Rockies and higher terrain out west. The result is that these shallow arctic airmasses often come in faster and stronger than model progs and forecasts.

To complicate matters, the orientation of the upper cyclone and overhead jets are a typical pattern resulting in numerous impulses moving across the area. The 850-700mb winds override the shallow arctic airmass producing additional lift as well as necessary moisture. What we usually get down here as a result is freezing rain. It's also known as the North Texas ice capades on the roads where most people's ignorance of basic science (like water freezes at 32F; rubber provides no traction on ice; etc.) are exposed to the world much to the chagrin of insurance companies.

There is of course alot of uncertainty as far as amount/type of precipitation because too many necessary details can't be resolved this far out. But, it is certainly my opinion that old man winter is coming back to stay for awhile....and he could be pretty cranky because his wife, Mother Nature, is booting him out of the comfort of his home within the arctic circle. :-)

Stay tuned.....it's going to be pretty interesting next week.

My New Job - A Career Pinnacle

Today, I officially started what I hope is my last job until I retire. The MANY hours, days, weeks and months of self-study, continuing education night classes, personal sacrifice, and 8 years of dysfunctional IT hell have finally bore fruit.

My official title is "Oracle Applications Analyst". I'll be doing alot of Java and Oracle web application development with a little DHTML thrown in. For the IT geeks out there, it's a Struts based J2EE application running on a multi-clustered and load-balanced Apache/Tomcat server configuration with an Oracle back end. This is EXACTLY what I've been wanting to do for quite awhile now. In addition, I'll have an excellent opportunity to learn various Oracle tools that they implement which will satiate my hunger to learn and grow. I'll also be tasked with mentoring several other programmers in Java and J2EE which I will enjoy too.

The first day turned out exactly as I had envisioned from the interview process and due diligence. It's a relaxed and very positive atmosphere in a stunningly beautiful and modern work environment. Everybody made me feel right at home and, get this, everybody is happy. And, no, they aren't pumping atomized Prozac into the air ducts either. LOL!! For the first time, there are NO red flags being raised or alarm bells after completing my first day.... another first for me to experience. This company actually gets it about managing its employees. Part of that testiment are people I've met who have been here for many years....even 20-25. I can speak from experience about companies that DON'T get it and fall way short in this area. They're on my resume. ;-)

With this outstanding opportunity, I've also reached a comfortable level of financial independence including the ability to aggressively build a retirement portfolio. I'm significantly deficient in this currently and I can finally makeup some ground. All of that and I can still have my chase toys too. LOL!!

If that sounds pompous, well, I certainly won't apologize for it. I've earned every bit of it with no help from anybody except those pessimists and critics out there who motivated me more than they'll ever know. I've successfully achieved a professional level that I was always told impossible because of not having a 4-year college degree under my belt. :-)

For now, it's time to jump in and hit the ground running to validate their belief in me and prove their decision to bring me on board was a good one. 2006 will finally be MY year.

A fitting song: "Marathon" by Neil Pert.

Street Atlas 2006

Details about the new SA 2006: http://delorme.com/streetatlasusa/default.asp

One of the most interesting questions to pose to a stormchaser is "which tool could you NOT live without?" After alot of pondering, I'd have to say my GPS mapping system and with that of course Street Atlas. After all, once you are on a storm, you don't need radar or radios. But you had best know the road network ahead of you and where you are at in relation to it at all times to either intercept or flee. A mistake here can have a range of consequences.

Sure, one could argue that paper maps could be used. But compared to a GPS mapping system..well...it's not even a fair comparison. LOL! For me, I chase alone and it's always comforting to glance over and to know exactly your position at all times and what lies ahead. Gone are the days of fumbling for the right page of the "Roads Of Texas" and then trying to determine exactly where you are at and when the next turn is up ahead. Alot of mental capacity was taken up simply trying to navigate and plot your route. Now I let the computer do all of the work and all without arguing about intercept strategy or your position. :-) June 9th and June 12th last year were absolutely critical in this respect.

Oh, and how about estimating drive times and distance to get to a target area? This is quite useful if you have the highway/street speed variables set correctly. Last year I even used the fuel calculator function with surprisingly accurate results. A few times, I used it to find a motel in a city or town without having to fumble through all of the coupon books. And for the hospital function, I used it to locate the hospital in Liberal, KS along with a phone number. It wasn't life threatening, but a severe gum infection dictated that I find a medical facility immediately and on the Sunday evening before Memorial Day.

One particular function I liked was the voice command. I used SA 2004 last year and the voice engine on it was just too unstable on my meager laptop. However, it worked well for the first half of the season and I came to rely upon it ALOT. I've talked to alot of chasers about this feature, but nobody else used it or bothered messing with it. I'm abit puzzled by this, especially if you are a solo chaser. My hands never touched the computer to zoom, pan, auto-center on/off, etc.. I never had to look down other than to check my position with a quick glance. The end result is I kept my eyes on the road alot more and hands on the wheel. The safety factor alone was significant...not to mention the convenience.

Now, I did have to do some voice training with it to improve accuracy. After about a 10-15 minute session, it was able to decipher my Texas accent. As long as I spoke succinctly, it never missed. A single beep confirmed your command was processed. The most important aspect of getting this to work though was the microphone...and one with an on/off switch. I used a good unidirectional condenser mic (like what newscasters use) which picked up my voice with little background noise. I positioned it in close proximity to my mouth, but not so close as to be intrusive or poke my eye out. ;-) This enabled me to avoid an annoying headset. You'll want the off switch so that the computer won't waste CPU listening and processing audio data continuously. I also set it up so that all voice commands started with "computer" in order to distinguish a command from casual conversation. You can set that to whatever you want. I tried "Hal" for grins, but found the computer confused it for other words. Too bad though because it was kinda cool to simulate "2001: A Space Odyssey". :-)

With ALL of that being said, the new SA 2006 looks pretty good with a couple of important improvements...primarily the options/setting all being in ONE place to set and adjust. Being a programmer and applications developer, this drove me absolutely nuts. It was a poor design. But, fix it they have. The other thing I like is you can now customize keyboard shortcuts. This is great for all of the different keyboard configurations on the various laptops out there. I also like the fact that they recommend only 256mb memory (minimum 128mb) with XP. This is good news if you only have 512mb and trying to run a wireless card and GRLevel3. But, WxWorx still draws 512mb memory, so if you can, step up to 1gb memory if you are going to run SA with it.