New Forecasting/Chase Blog

I decided to keep two different blogs in order to keep some semblence of organization between general weather and stormchasing related stuff and the more detailed chase forecasts and even live chase reports from the road as the season ensues. I'm doing this because my forecasts can be pretty detailed and lengthy thus cluttering up my regular blog AND it will make it easier for me or anybody else interested to go back and review/reasearch/critique.

When time permits, I'll try to do a "day 2" forecast for an event the next day usually using the 00Z models. The "day 1" forecast will be sometime in the morning before an event. In addition, I'm going to try and send out brief emails while I'm chasing. That will be an interesting experiment. We'll see if it works. :-)

I used to do this years ago and found that I learned alot from my mistakes as well as successes. It's a great way to really increase your forecasting skills as well as just keeping a good log of events or even non-events. I hope this will also be a good way to communicate with others' thoughts and analysis on a particular situation.

So, here it is: http://www.texastailchaser.com/tailcaster/

I posted my thoughts about tomorrow's setup which according the latest NAM will be pretty interesting. I don't expect to chase in E TX though. Heck, it's only January! LOL!! I'll hang close to home in N TX and see what I can catch. It's not often that we get a powerful vortmax, as advertised by the NAM, taking aim on my house here in McKinney. I want to look up and see that big red splotch and "X". LOL! ;-)

Sacred Rain

It's raining. It's raining alot. Many Texans and Okies are giving thanks today for the skies finally opening up and pouring forth. It's been a beautiful rain as it has all been light to moderate yet steady. It's a good, soaking rain with little if any runoff. Many areas of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma received between 0.5" and 1.5" with some areas around the central Red River Valley getting 2" or more. Of course, not all areas got that much (generally along and west/southwest of a Bowie, Eastland, to Temple line) and portions of central OK got nothing. But, this is a good start for alot of areas and will give many heroic firefighters a chance to relax and take a break.

Here at my house in the western outskirts of McKinney, I got close to an inch of total rainfall. I actually opened up the shades this morning and enjoyed seeing the rain falling outside and running off the roof. I usually don't like cold gray rainy days, but today was an exception.

Fortunately, there is yet another good storm system poised to affect us in a few more days with good model agreement. The dynamics look stronger with this one and we could see some elevated strong to severe thunderstorms storms with a hail threat. Beyond that, the longer range models are really shoring up well in keeping an active split flow pattern setup for us in the near future...out to 10 days and even beyond. This would be a more typical climatological upper air pattern for as we near February. I'm gaining some confidence that we might start making some progress in offsetting the drought in the next 30 days. We have quite a ways to go though.

SKYWARN & SDS Session

One of the fortunate aspects of living in North Texas is having such an outstanding National Weather Service office serving this region. Part of that is the superb Advanced SKYWARN presentations of Gary Woodall and the advanced sessions of Al Mollar. They somehow find a way to keep topping the previous year's excellent presentations. 2006 is certainly no different. Of course, these sessions certainly come at an excellent time when the debilitating effects of SDS start to peak for us chasers.

Once again, some of my video along with several other chasers' was used to help storm spotters visualize various storm features and dynamics. It is always a privilege to be able to help in efforts to assist spotters in their critical role in an integrated warning system. Gary's several-hours long session is top notch and very professional. At least in my opinion, he accurately conveys many complex aspects of storm physics, characteristics, and meteorology to the general public in a very energetic and entertaining manner. The measure of his success is demonstrated by most all audience members staying for his entire presentation as well as reflected in their questions. I also think Gary deserves a marathon award not only for his voice holding out for that long, but for the extremely demanding schedule this time of year as he treks to every county in their warning area to make this presentation.

Al Mollar then makes his fascinating presentation of tornadogenesis theories and every year he has some case studies of historical events. For 2006, he focuses on the very active 1976 severe weather season here in northern Texas. Several events are studied in detail including the Brownwood monster tornado, the powerful derecho event in the NW and W parts of North Texas (110mph winds and golfball hail!), and the tornadic supercell outbreak along the I-35 corridor from Denton to the North Dallas tornado to the Johnson/Ellis county supercell to the central TX cells. Included are several highly detailed surface maps that he detailed by hand with colored pencils. With upper air, skew-t and radar data thrown in, I was deeply immersed in some serious analysis. However, the skewt charts were more than several audience members wanted to ingest, so they made a hasty retreat with glazed-over eyes. LOL!! I definitely picked up on a couple of things to add to my forecasting arsenal. He showed several of his own pictures of the North Dallas tornado that he chased as a young meteorologist at the Fort Worth office. Of course, Al's recollection of the events as he tells them keeps your undivided attention.

What I would give to sit next to him on those types of days and watch his mastery at work deciphering all of the many clues and hints into pieces of art created by colored pencils. I would probably only be an annoyance though as I would want to be involved in the process and ask alot of questions. I would probably annoy myself too if I were doing a detailed hand analysis. Perhaps if I offered to keep sharpening his colored pencils? LOL! Seriously though, it definitely served to reinforce my belief in that there is no substitute for doing that kind of analysis yourself as there is no way to really get a good, in-depth understanding and feel for ALL of the intricate and detailed "personality" of the atmosphere from the surface through 200mb. Instead of colored pencils though, I use MS Paint to draw my analysis on a map image I pull off of one of several internet sources. It's easier and more convenient plus I can save it on disk for easier future reference.

Anyway, I can't recommend this session enough. Be sure to check out the schedule and attend one of the sessions that is in bold.

Lichtenberg Figures & Shrinking Coins

Wow....too bad Christmas has come and gone. LOL! I just found a very cool site that has "lightning art" for sale. The pieces of art are called "Lichtenberg Figures" which are created by charging up a piece of plexiglass with over a million volts of electricity and then instantly discharging it. The result is a beautiful and unique piece of art. You gotta see it to believe it!! I'll soon have one of these on my mantle at home. Oh...and check out how they shrink coins too!

http://lichdesc.teslamania.com/

Mother Nature's Sick Humor

Well, most of the severe drought-stricken areas of Texas and Oklahoma completely missed out on any rain from yesterday's system. Despite a powerful upper trough plowing through the region, it was more of a positive tilt which veered the low level flow (meaning winds switched from south to west) which scoured out most of the moisture well ahead of it. In fact, due to the previous strong systems plowing deep into the Gulf of Mexico with bone-dry air, it took alot longer to advect any moisture deep into Texas. Plus, all of the dynamics both at the surface and aloft ended up being well ahead of the trough which is typical for a postive-tilt trough.

The dryline and surface cool front plowed through early and advected in a desert type airmass void of any sort of moisture whatsoever. So, even what meager amounts rain that was trying to fall from higher cloud bases ended up evaporating before ever reaching the surface.

The models however are starting to form a consensus on a major upper level storm system for us the early part of next week which shows alot of promise for significant rains. At this point, skepticism is the better part of caution. :-)

Drought Update & Maybe Rain!

(originally posted January 10, 2006)

As a stormchaser, I never thought I'd reach this level of elation over the slightest glimmer of rain forecasts. Right now, perusing two of the medium range forecast models, the ECMWF and GFS, I can't help the urge to dance a jig. I know now how some of the survivors of the dust bowl days felt when dark clouds appeared on the distant horizon.

The current drought in Texas is approaching "phenominal" proportions. We are certainly encroaching upon the Dust Bowl era records. Several small communities in Texas have been ravaged and even wiped out by raging wildfires. All firefighting resources are stretched thin and to the breaking point. Thank God for the dedication of an all-volunteer army of firefighters in many of the rural areas of the state who have performed miraculously when called upon numerous times over the past month. Since my recent diatribe about this in an earlier blog, they are getting some help from the feds, but not nearly enough. We are still teetering perilously on edge of having a humongous, raging fire sweep through a major population center or even several of them. I'm still gravely worried about that prospect.

Some relief, however little it might be, appears on the horizon. The aforementioned models are now consistent and in some good agreement on bringing the next upper level trough further south, deeper and stronger than all of the ones that have been avoiding Texas since I can remember for the past few months. There will be time for enough moisture to advect in ahead of the system and combined with strong dynamics should give us a relatively brief round of significant rainfall for Texas and Oklahoma. The best guesstimate is starting Sunday afternoon and through Monday. Of course, with our luck, it would be foolish not to consider the possibility of things not coming together as advertised. I'm fond of always quoting the late, great Harold Taft: "It don't rain much in a drought". So, I'm being very cautiously optimistic...with reservations. :-) Prayers are welcomed.

Hopefully this is the vanguard of a shifting upper air pattern into something more resembling January/February and instead of early June with such strong, early summer type of ridging. If not, and based on the persistent whacky upper air pattern, then we WILL be experiencing a climate similar to the Dust Bowl days. In fact, Europe is having a very serious prolonged drought for about 3 years now. Check out this news story. This doesn't bode well at all because the entire global pattern is screwed up. It's not just us. Seattle is approaching record rainfall and California floods and Japan gets 13 feet....yes....FEET of snow which is unprecedented. Effects of global warming and greenhouse gases along with deteriorating ozone layer? Well, to argue AGAINST those causes and effects is similar to the "Monty Phython and The Holy Grail" skit where the Black Knight, after having his entire arm sliced off by the sword of King Arthur, proclaims: "'Tis only a flesh wound!". (side note: I'm not totally convinced by some of the junk science being touted as to causes of of global warming. But, the weather patterns of the past two years definitely spells out that something is out of whack. I think it would be a good idea to play it safe and get rid of the SUV...LOL!)

We'll see how this drama unfolds. If we end up with another dry spring, being March and April, then we might be packing up our vehicles like desert nomads and embark on a trek in search for water. Yeah, ok, a little over-dramatic there. LOL! But, the reality will be emergency water rationing plans that people in major metropolitan areas have never even dreamed of being possible. If we reach "Stage 5", you can forget about watering your lawn or washing your vehicle for starters as that will totally be prohibited with stiff fines as penalties and even jail for repeated violators. You can go ahead and cover your swimming pool too. In fact, under the highest trigger level, "Stage 6", emergency water rationing plans allow water districts and municipalities to restrict the number of gallons a household can use per month based on a calculation that includes number of people, etc. Read it for yourself here. For even more information, check here. There is also a list of the most distressed water supply systems here.

Drought Extraordinaire

(originally posted December 29th, 2005)

In a state known for it's bragging and doing everything bigger and better, it is unfortunate that Texas is doing so with the current drought statistics. It appears that officially, 2005 for North Texas will end as the fifth driest ever on record. We are running about 15-20 inches below normal on rainfall and some areas are even worse than that recording up to 25 inches below normal. Considering that we normally see around 38 inches per year, it practically hasn’t rained all year long. The driest stretches were the entire spring (really sucked as a stormchaser living around these parts) and from October through the end of December. Our current cilmatology as far as precipitation goes is similar to that of far west Texas or New Mexico.

We are at the highest end of the drought scale and this region is now in the “extreme” to “exceptional” range. I have never seen it this dry here in my entire life….and I thought 1996 and 1999 were pretty bad….lol! As a result, we have had devastating wildfires all across the area. A few days ago, we had major fires erupting everywhere and it stretched the entire region’s fire fighting resources to it’s breaking point. The town of Cross Plains, about 115 miles west of Fort Worth, was devestated. 90 homes and several other buildings, including a church, were destroyed. Two of the state's three fire deaths were reported there, including an 89-year-old bedridden grandmother.

In fact, I’m pretty pissed right now that the National Guard along with the National Forestry Service hasn’t been called into action as reserves and I certainly do not understand why we haven’t called for mutual aid from other states. This isn’t an exaggeration to say that we are setup for a major disaster here. We narrowly avoided it a few days ago and apparently nobody has heeded the warning. We need the same amount of forces setup here as they have in the western states when they are having all of their fire problems in the summer. They are fine there and can certainly spare their resources.

The future picture looks rather bleak with no relief on the horizon. Instead, we are primed for a repeat fire outbreak in the coming weeks as similar patterns that spawned all of the firestorms a few days ago will be present. In fact, a couple of systems look even stronger if the GFS model is correct. SW and W winds of 30-40 mph and gusty along with single digit humidities are likely every few days for the next week or so. We will certainly see more major fire outbreaks….and I fear that a major firestorm may erupt and get out of control due to a lack of resources. It would make what we saw a few days ago look like a campfire. Entire communities and towns could be burned to the ground and people die.

The only smallest glimmer of very faint hope is that the GFS is showing a deep trough on day 10 that would, if it verified, give us some rain to ease things a bit. But, that is a long ways off in a quirky computer model. As ol’ Harold Taft would say, “It don’t rain much in a drought”. The climate prediction center is also forecasting very dry conditions through March which is scary. I hope that they are wrong. If we end up with another dry spring and can’t replenish our reservoirs and aquafers, then we are going to be in some very serious, deep shit next year for water supplies. Imagine being limited to using only a certain amount of water per month with the consequence of not doing so being that your water gets cut off, get a hefty fine, or repeated violation result in jail time. I doubt many people could comprehend such drastic measures, but it is part of emergency contingency plans. It could easily get that bad if the drought continues well into 2006. It’s a scenario that’s been discussed and warned about for decades by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Committee as the projected demand exceeds supply. Estimates for an extended severe drought has us running out of water in a relatively short period of time. We are behind on the number of reservoirs needed to prevent such a disaster.

But, in trying not to sound like such an alarmist and doomsday advocate, we do live in very close proximity to the Gulf Of Mexico. Upper air patterns do change and we usually see big storm systems digging south over the Rockies by February drawing all of that juicy air from the south and lifting it to produce significant rains. We have had a parade of storm systems moving across the country and we’ve just been terribly unlucky that they either skirt us too far north or move too fast to allow moisture return. We won’t need much if any alteration in the upper air pattern to get us back into some rainy weather. So, I’m cautiously optimistic that we can pull out of this. But, with 2004 and 2005 being the years of extreme and highly unusual weather events where everything has been abnormal, it would be foolish not to seriously consider that we may not pull out of this drought pattern either.

A drought index chart: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

Driest years on record (note the top nine are from the 50’s and earlier):
1) 17.91” – 1921
2) 17.97” – 1910
3) 18.11” – 1899
4) 18.55” – 1956
5) 18.97” – 2005
6) 19.09” – 1934
7) 19.55” – 1954
8) 19.65” – 1901
9) 20.11” – 1948
10) 20.46” – 1963
Driest years since the 1950’s drought (this is a scary comparison):
1) 18.97” – 2005
2) 20.46” – 1963
3) 22.08” – 1980
4) 22.23” – 1972
5) 23.59” – 1999

(data sources from the National Weather Service - Fort Worth Office)

Stormchasing Antipathy

(originally posted December 28th, 2006)

I've had a few people inquire as to why I don't participate in the "stormchaser community" anymore...this mainly pertaining to online message boards and discussion lists. So, I thought I'd spew and vent a little bit which will satisfy anyone's curiosity and perhaps rile a few others out there. But, for the sake of brevity, I'll sum it up in one sentence:
It's not fun anymore.

Maybe I'm getting to be an old fart, but I've gotten pretty sick and tired of the increasingly cult-like atmosphere of the "stormchasing community". Bloated egos, extreme competitiveness, petty bickering, elitist attitudes, back stabbing, conspiracies, personal flame wars, vendettas, extreme rudeness and inconsideration, selfishness, self-righteousness, maniacal glory seekers, etc. have started to become more of a defining aspect of a small but growing segment of the stormchasing community. I'm seeing more and more obsessive-compulsive behavior to the point that some chasers have launched vicious personal vendettas to destroy other chasers' reputations, business-related efforts and even personal lives. I got a small taste of that last year myself.

In short, this hobby has started to resemble our current political situation. People jocky for power, prestige, and glory using whatever means necessary including lies, personal vendettas, smear campaigns against other chasers' reputations, and even destroying personal lives. They are obsessed with it 24/7 and willingly sacrifice their morals, principles, integrity, friends, family, careers, etc. One chaser even repeatedly expressed a strong desire to take a tire iron upside the head of a construction worker flagging down and holding up traffic that delayed him from reaching a target area. Yikes!! There is certainly an outstanding microcosm study in psychology for somebody looking for thesis material. LOL!!

To make a long story short, I'm just sick and tired of it all. I've mistakenly gotten myself caught up in some of the drama I've mentioned above which included a couple of broken friendships. The result is that it all really started having a serious and negative impact on my most beloved and cherished hobby. It's important to point out that only about 25% of the chasers out there are creating the problems I'm ranting about. They however make themselves highly visible and the center of attention which drowns out the other 75%. Alot of the 75% have just gone into lurk mode or have decided like I have that it's best to distance yourself from it all. I think that's a wise choice. After all....it's just a hobby.

So, now you know. I don't miss all of the drama one bit. In fact, after doing some personal "restructuring", I'm more eager than ever for the 2006 season to approach. I've regained alot of the passion that I used to have for stormchasing simply by removing the cancerous portion of it all. I'm quite happy to let the rest of the turmoil of the stormchasing cult continue onward and pass me by entirely. I'm a helluva lot better off. It's like a breath of cool, fresh air on a sultry and oppressive August day in Texas. :-)

Let the 2006 season begin!!!

My First Blog

(originally posted December 11, 2005)

It's getting into that time of year when I have too much free time on my hands. Since alot of my hobbies and activities revolve around the warm seasons, I start getting pretty ancy and a little bored. So, I thought I'd join the blogging crowd....as if anybody cares about what I have to say. ;-)

Since meteorology is my most passionate hobby next to photography, I have been bored out of my mind this year living here in North Texas. We are in one helluva serious drought. The weather pattern has been very dull and mostly uneventful. Too much "pretty weather". Us stormchasers and weather weenies are a curious bunch as we get depressed from too much pretty weather. LOL! This past week, we had a mini-ice storm which made for some interesting forecasting. It wasn't much precip, but enough to turn the roads around here into skating rinks. But, the whole event was over in 24 hours and pretty much a blink.

Looking ahead, nothing exciting in the extended range either. YAWN!My thoughts are starting to churn about the upcoming spring season heralding in my beloved severe thunderstorms, supercells and tornadoes. My SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome) doesn't start flaring until late January. But, it quickly escalates to the point of being debilitative in February. By March, I'm ready to be shot with a horse tranquilizer. When the first round of warning tones go off on the radio, I perform the "Forbidden Sacred Dance of Chaser Merriment". :-)

Fortunately, I'm pretty certain I'll be attending the national Stormchasing Convention in Denver the second week of February. It is 3 days of intensive SDS therapy and extreme weather weeniness. I've regretted missing it for the past few years as I usually don't have the funds or time available to go (gotta save up for chase vacation you know!). It looks like all of the stars in the universe will align so that I can attend. Now watch a blizzard of the century happen and shut down everything for a week. ;-) There's also the TESSA (Texas Severe Storms Association) convention here in the DFW area at the end of January I believe and it will also help alleviate the SDS a tad. Last year was pretty decent and this year looks even better.

For the first time since I started, I never had the time to put together my 2005 chase video highlights to submit to the NWS Fort Worth for SKYWARN training. In fact, I haven't even looked at ANY of my video from this past season since late June. I've been the busy and preoccupied with trying to stabilize my career after getting several "curve balls" beaning me upside the head. I had planned on putting together my first ever chase DVD capturing everything from 1998 through 2005. I even suck about $2400 into a new Dell computer with 3 gig of memory and video card/HD system (500gb HD @7200rpm) along with some software to do it this year. it will be a pretty daunting task and one where I can't afford to be distracted for weeks at a time with the career drama I'm in right now. I gotta get that situated first. So, maybe a 1998-2006 3-disc DVD for next year? LOL!! I need a secretary.